M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[damo666]

I'm pretty sure Balki will vote for me and Xorxes for kgray.

This leaves Jamie and Bunny and whoever is third man will vote for me (assuming they have now investigated either kgray or me which after yesterday they would have done last night had they not previously). Whoever of Bunny and Jamie is town you must vote for kgray or the game is lost.

You are that confident that town-xorxes would continue to think you are town? How can you be so sure that xorxes will vote with you? Is it because you're scum together?

Xorxes has explained this. He is familiar with my style and can read me like a book.

[damo666]

@damo will you assume, just for a bit, that I'm town? Who do you think the scumteam is in that case?

If you are town scum didn't take their opportunity to win the game. I am not wasting my time on such an hypothesis.

If it turns out to be the case there will be an interesting post game debate as to whether inaction can constitute playing against one's wincon.

[damo666]

And I'm honestly not understanding how you're arriving at the conclusion that Balki and I have to be scum together. Please, for the sake of town (even if you don't think that's me), can you elaborate?

It's funny, I totally feel this way too. And I want the same answer to, "Damo, assume I am town, who is scum?"

Like, if there is some reason why Kgray and I cannot possibly be on different teams, someone please tell me why, because then I don't have to spend all this time trying to figure out her alignment.

And, Damo, if you are like 100% convinced I am scum no matter what, tell me that too. Because then I don't have to invest my time into trying to figure your alignment for sure. I can just vote for you, and hope there is a next day. If you're town, and you're convinced I'm scum, Town loses. That's it. If you're scum, then we can just get on to Day whatever and find your team.

Being town involved in the day 6 tied lynch i have to assume kgray is scum.
I also have to assume the other (non PZ) scum was voting me and therefore is you, Jamie or Bunny. (An interesting aside, if this second scum is NOT Jamie then there was a busser (you or Bunny) who deliberately sacrificed Bob to gain towncred.

PZ on D6 was probably on me but if on kgray hadn't investigated me or kgray (possible, but less than 20% chance).

Possibly I got into a tunnel on the N6 NK but to me Bozo was the obvious candidate and the only reason i can think for NKing Flum is Bozo being PZ who was ignorant or you being scum. The reasoning for the latter is that if you were town the scumteam would NK Bozo (unless Bozo PZ) and support my strategy this killing townBalki D8 for victory.

I therefore reach the conclusion that you are scum and/or Bozo is PZ. The latter I find unlikely.

I may have overplayed this theory, if so convince me which of Jamie and Bunny are scum and who is PZ.

[damo666]

@Damo,

Seems like you have basically read Flum as scum for 6 days and 5 nights. You voted him a bunch, and virtually every post you made about him you said he was scum.

Then, Night 6, you changed your mind, and you became "85%" sure Flum was town and then you gave him a hard town read.

What changed your mind so drastically? Also, what do you think it was that caused you to misread Flum for the first 6 days and 5 nights of the game? Did Flum's flip help you reevaluate any of your other reads?

I said, his N6 post.

[damo666]

If anyone is town out there trying to read Damo, here is another thing that I'm mulling over, and I could use comments from others:

How can he be so sure about anything?

I mean, this is not easy. And the game hangs in the balance. And there are a bunch of schmucks in the God thread making fun of us for being dumb. And a bunch of people who committed a lot of time to this game only to have it come down to us, trying to put the pieces together at LYLO.

How can Town!Damo waltz out here at the start of LYLO and act so sure about the whole scum team?

I've been through the thread several times, and I've played my fair share of forum mafia, and I am really unsure. If you are Town, out there in the abyss, I bet you're unsure too. Right?

All I am absolutely sure of is kgray is scum and so is one of you, Jamie and Bunny.

[damo666]

@Damo, this is something you wrote on Day 2.

This end voting is a mistake given the vote distribution is not considered. It is too easily manipulated by scum.

Anybody not unending I will consider to be a scum.

Happy to vote any of the lurkers.

With this in mind, it is pretty surprising that you started Day 7 with an End vote. Can you talk about your mindset there? What were you expecting to happen?

I got overexcited at the Flumflip

[damo666]

QUESTIONS:
(1) Does Xorxes Bus as Scum?
(2) Does Damo Sincerely Think That Xorxes Does Not Bus as Scum?

So, I am going to try to answer these two questions. If folks can tell me the numbers for the recent games that Xorxes has played as scum, I'll try to run some quick searches and see what I find. Then I'll check games where Damo and Xorxes played together, and try to see whether Town!Damo has ever said that Xorx does not bus as scum.

@Damo, @Xorxes, or @anyone else, if you can tell me any information that would be useful to this project, I would be much obliged.

2) Yes I do. It may not be never but is certainly rare and I cannot think of when it happened but my memory of old games is poor so that's not so important.

Xorxes has definitely claimed on more than one occasion that he is averse to bussing.

Anyway Xorxes can't be scum. He could be ignorant PZ.

[damo666]

Possible scumpairs with kgray

Notation
S = nonPZscum
P = PZ aware of my or kgray alignment
Q = PZ unaware of the alignment of me or kgray

S P
BB J
BB BUN
J BB
J BUN
BUN BB
BUN J

S Q
BB BOZO
BB X
J BOZO
J X
BUN BOZO
BUN X

I would be grateful for any logical reasons to eliminate any of these pairings.

[damo666]

Possible scumpairs with kgray

Notation
S = nonPZscum
P = PZ aware of my or kgray alignment
Q = PZ unaware of the alignment of me or kgray

S P
BB J
BB BUN
J BB
J BUN
BUN BB
BUN J

S Q
BB BOZO
BB X
J BOZO
J X
BUN BOZO
BUN X

I would be grateful for any logical reasons to eliminate any of these pairings.

In the above P and Q refer to knowledge at D6. If there was a Q they are now P.

Bozo voting for kgray would indicate he wasn't Q (unless he switches to me EOD but in that case hats off)

[xorxes]

If anyone is town out there trying to read Damo, here is another thing that I'm mulling over, and I could use comments from others:

How can he be so sure about anything?

I mean, this is not easy. And the game hangs in the balance. And there are a bunch of schmucks in the God thread making fun of us for being dumb. And a bunch of people who committed a lot of time to this game only to have it come down to us, trying to put the pieces together at LYLO.

How can Town!Damo waltz out here at the start of LYLO and act so sure about the whole scum team?

I've been through the thread several times, and I've played my fair share of forum mafia, and I am really unsure. If you are Town, out there in the abyss, I bet you're unsure too. Right?

In his situation, it would be much more suspicious if he was NOT sure about some things, don't you think? And you are right that noone can be 100% sure of anything, but some things are pretty obvious, and you seem to just be trying to sow doubt about everything instead of coming up with an alternative explanation.

[damo666]

Who ever is town out of BB Jamie and Bunny it is imperative you vote for kgray.

I implore you.

[xorxes]

How about this for a theory?

There is always an example of busing on day 1.

Top 3 wagons were TvTvT ( worcej the only unknown but widely townread).

Xorxes never busses.

Hence EMC and Flum are a scumpair.

Voila!

@Xorxes, is it true that you never bus? Do you believe that Damo sincerely thinks you never bus?

Other people, is it anyone else's experience that "Xorxes never busses"?

Where did this come from? I need to know if it is actually a thing.

I used to say that I never bus, but bozo found a game once where I did bus and made a big deal of it so I don't say it so much anymore, but basically, yeah, I don't bus.

[xorxes]

@Xorxes, is it true that you never bus? Do you believe that Damo sincerely thinks you never bus?

Other people, is it anyone else's experience that "Xorxes never busses"?

Where did this come from? I need to know if it is actually a thing.

Looking at old games, you have played a number of games with xorxes when he was scum, including M46 when you were on the scum team together. What is your experience with him bussing as scum?

I don't remember.

Going back to look is on my list of things to do. But really -- there are two things about this that are important.(1) It's important to know whether it's true, because it may help shed light on other alignments and potential Xorxes scum-pairings, and (2) it's important to know whether it is accepted Webdip conventional wisdom, so that we know whether Damo was being sincere about it.

Can you speak to either?

It is kind of conventional wisdom, like "rivera always buses". I'm sure you can find counterexamples to both.

[xorxes]

Great analysis there Balki.

I think the "Xorxes does not bus" thing comes from the fact that Xorxes often says it. Whenever anyone suggests Xorxes is bussing, his response is usually to claim that he never does so. I have seen Xorxes make such a statement in several games.

Interestingly, on page 133 of this game, he was more nuanced in answering Chaqa's comment about whether he would bus.

Hmm.

Yes, there's too many literal minded people here that have a hard time with hyperbole.

[damo666]

@Jamie @Bunny

We have heard a lot from Balki. I'd like to hear more from you two.

[damo666]

Pretty well convinced there was no Q narrowing the possible pairs to 6.

[xorxes]

I'm pretty sure Balki will vote for me and Xorxes for kgray.

This leaves Jamie and Bunny and whoever is third man will vote for me (assuming they have now investigated either kgray or me which after yesterday they would have done last night had they not previously). Whoever of Bunny and Jamie is town you must vote for kgray or the game is lost.

You are that confident that town-xorxes would continue to think you are town? How can you be so sure that xorxes will vote with you? Is it because you're scum together?

Xorxes has explained this. He is familiar with my style and can read me like a book.

You better be town now or I won't be happy.

[damo666]

You are that confident that town-xorxes would continue to think you are town? How can you be so sure that xorxes will vote with you? Is it because you're scum together?

Xorxes has explained this. He is familiar with my style and can read me like a book.

You better be town now or I won't be happy.

Lol. I'm town.

Do you agree with me that we are basically down to 6 pairs?

If so how do you rank them?
@Bozo I would like you to do the same exercise.

Thanks.

[xorxes]

Xorxes has explained this. He is familiar with my style and can read me like a book.

You better be town now or I won't be happy.

Lol. I'm town.

Do you agree with me that we are basically down to 6 pairs?

If so how do you rank them?
@Bozo I would like you to do the same exercise.

Thanks.

I want to hear what Jamie and Bunny have to say. At the moment I think it's
kgray > Balki > Bunny > Jamie > bozo > damo

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Damo,

I spent a lot of time reading your prior games with Xorxes. One thing that comes through loud and clear is that you have a ton of respect for Xorxes’s Town game, and you seem to expect him to be an early Night Kill, or else you suspect him of being Scum.

With the Flum flip, we can see that Xorxes has been off track every day except Day 3. And, obviously he has not been Night Killed.

Talk to me about your Xorxes read in this game.