M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[kgray]

Consider a scum team excluding Balki. Surely they NK Bozo in the hope that my strategy to lynch kgray d7 then Balki D8 is followed which would be a scum victory even with kgray as scum.

Therefore I assume Balki must be in the scumteam with kgray. I now think Bunny is the likeliest third man.

Can you please explain this more? You think scum killing bozo (assuming bozo is town) makes it MORE likely that I get lynched D7? Why do you think that?

And I'm honestly not understanding how you're arriving at the conclusion that Balki and I have to be scum together. Please, for the sake of town (even if you don't think that's me), can you elaborate?

[kgray]

I'm pretty sure Balki will vote for me and Xorxes for kgray.

This leaves Jamie and Bunny and whoever is third man will vote for me (assuming they have now investigated either kgray or me which after yesterday they would have done last night had they not previously). Whoever of Bunny and Jamie is town you must vote for kgray or the game is lost.

You are that confident that town-xorxes would continue to think you are town? How can you be so sure that xorxes will vote with you? Is it because you're scum together?

[kgray]

Umm...wasn't it Flum blatantly telling me to move my vote?

I have to admit, I was all set to really scumread Flum for that at EOD, and then for not posting ANYTHING during the night. As if he *knew* he'd be alive. Shows me...

OK, off to go do the research I said I'd do.

Flum did do some of that, yes. But also xorxes:

@Bunny, why are you voting for damo when you have been scumreading kgray all this time?

I would move to No Lynch if w can get a group to commit.

That also makes me worried we are S v S

Vote for kgray then

Also Bunny, Flum did post during the night. And did you see Flum's wall of reads? It's here.

[kgray]

@damo will you assume, just for a bit, that I'm town? Who do you think the scumteam is in that case?

[BunnyGo]

Umm...wasn't it Flum blatantly telling me to move my vote?

I have to admit, I was all set to really scumread Flum for that at EOD, and then for not posting ANYTHING during the night. As if he *knew* he'd be alive. Shows me...

OK, off to go do the research I said I'd do.

Flum did do some of that, yes. But also xorxes:

@Bunny, why are you voting for damo when you have been scumreading kgray all this time?

That also makes me worried we are S v S

Vote for kgray then

Also Bunny, Flum did post during the night. And did you see Flum's wall of reads? It's here.

Thanks...I guess I need a more careful reread of today/night in addition to the old stuff.

[Balki Bartokomous]

And I'm honestly not understanding how you're arriving at the conclusion that Balki and I have to be scum together. Please, for the sake of town (even if you don't think that's me), can you elaborate?

It's funny, I totally feel this way too. And I want the same answer to, "Damo, assume I am town, who is scum?"

Like, if there is some reason why Kgray and I cannot possibly be on different teams, someone please tell me why, because then I don't have to spend all this time trying to figure out her alignment.

And, Damo, if you are like 100% convinced I am scum no matter what, tell me that too. Because then I don't have to invest my time into trying to figure your alignment for sure. I can just vote for you, and hope there is a next day. If you're town, and you're convinced I'm scum, Town loses. That's it. If you're scum, then we can just get on to Day whatever and find your team.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Damo,

Seems like you have basically read Flum as scum for 6 days and 5 nights. You voted him a bunch, and virtually every post you made about him you said he was scum.

Then, Night 6, you changed your mind, and you became "85%" sure Flum was town and then you gave him a hard town read.

What changed your mind so drastically? Also, what do you think it was that caused you to misread Flum for the first 6 days and 5 nights of the game? Did Flum's flip help you reevaluate any of your other reads?

[Balki Bartokomous]

If anyone is town out there trying to read Damo, here is another thing that I'm mulling over, and I could use comments from others:

How can he be so sure about anything?

I mean, this is not easy. And the game hangs in the balance. And there are a bunch of schmucks in the God thread making fun of us for being dumb. And a bunch of people who committed a lot of time to this game only to have it come down to us, trying to put the pieces together at LYLO.

How can Town!Damo waltz out here at the start of LYLO and act so sure about the whole scum team?

I've been through the thread several times, and I've played my fair share of forum mafia, and I am really unsure. If you are Town, out there in the abyss, I bet you're unsure too. Right?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Damo, this is something you wrote on Day 2.

This end voting is a mistake given the vote distribution is not considered. It is too easily manipulated by scum.

Anybody not unending I will consider to be a scum.

Happy to vote any of the lurkers.

With this in mind, it is pretty surprising that you started Day 7 with an End vote. Can you talk about your mindset there? What were you expecting to happen?

[Balki Bartokomous]

How about this for a theory?

There is always an example of busing on day 1.

Top 3 wagons were TvTvT ( worcej the only unknown but widely townread).

Xorxes never busses.

Hence EMC and Flum are a scumpair.

Voila!

@Xorxes, is it true that you never bus? Do you believe that Damo sincerely thinks you never bus?

Other people, is it anyone else's experience that "Xorxes never busses"?

Where did this come from? I need to know if it is actually a thing.

[bozotheclown]

How about this for a theory?

There is always an example of busing on day 1.

Top 3 wagons were TvTvT ( worcej the only unknown but widely townread).

Xorxes never busses.

Hence EMC and Flum are a scumpair.

Voila!

@Xorxes, is it true that you never bus? Do you believe that Damo sincerely thinks you never bus?

Other people, is it anyone else's experience that "Xorxes never busses"?

Where did this come from? I need to know if it is actually a thing.

Looking at old games, you have played a number of games with xorxes when he was scum, including M46 when you were on the scum team together. What is your experience with him bussing as scum?

[bozotheclown]

Taking a break

Cool.

If I were scum, my team could have hammered you, friend.

I think Damo basically has to be scum, but I need to re-read the day yesterday in particular with an open mind.

Flum flipping is actually great from my point of view. I was really doubting my read on him and this should be very useful.

Everyone needs to wash away their reads again and start new. This is extremely useful info.

Do you find it useful to know that Fluminator was town, or do you think it is useful to know the scum chose to NK him?

[Balki Bartokomous]

How about this for a theory?

There is always an example of busing on day 1.

Top 3 wagons were TvTvT ( worcej the only unknown but widely townread).

Xorxes never busses.

Hence EMC and Flum are a scumpair.

Voila!

@Xorxes, is it true that you never bus? Do you believe that Damo sincerely thinks you never bus?

Other people, is it anyone else's experience that "Xorxes never busses"?

Where did this come from? I need to know if it is actually a thing.

Looking at old games, you have played a number of games with xorxes when he was scum, including M46 when you were on the scum team together. What is your experience with him bussing as scum?

I don't remember.

Going back to look is on my list of things to do. But really -- there are two things about this that are important.(1) It's important to know whether it's true, because it may help shed light on other alignments and potential Xorxes scum-pairings, and (2) it's important to know whether it is accepted Webdip conventional wisdom, so that we know whether Damo was being sincere about it.

Can you speak to either?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Do you find it useful to know that Fluminator was town, or do you think it is useful to know the scum chose to NK him?

Well, both are important data points. I can't say I've cracked the scumteam yet, so the verdict is still out on whether it turns out to be useful for me. But both are definitely important to consider.

[Balki Bartokomous]

QUESTIONS:
(1) Does Xorxes Bus as Scum?
(2) Does Damo Sincerely Think That Xorxes Does Not Bus as Scum?

So, I am going to try to answer these two questions. If folks can tell me the numbers for the recent games that Xorxes has played as scum, I'll try to run some quick searches and see what I find. Then I'll check games where Damo and Xorxes played together, and try to see whether Town!Damo has ever said that Xorx does not bus as scum.

@Damo, @Xorxes, or @anyone else, if you can tell me any information that would be useful to this project, I would be much obliged.

[Balki Bartokomous]

QUESTION 1: Does Xorxes Bus as Scum?

Yes, but it seems to be rare.

I looked at the last 20 games on the site. Xorxes and Damo both played in most of them (though not all). Xorxes was scum in four games (M46, M45, M42, M1005). Excluding votes for teammates after a Cop scan or similar mechanic, I found one instance of Xorxes voting for a scum teammate all the way through until the end of day. It was Day 3 of M42, when Xorxes bussed teammate MoscowFleet.

Here was Xorxes's post when he bussed his teammate:

Moscow, is this your whole case on me or is there something else?

##VOTE Moscow unless you have better reasons than that.

It never hurts town to lynch bb and Jamiet even when they're town, that's basically what I was saying.

That was one day of "bussing" out of 14 days of voting as scum.

Also note: Xorx is not philosophically opposed to bussing. I dug up the Mafia QT in a game in which Xorxes and I were scum together. You can view it here. Xorxes had a power that allowed him to speak in the QT during the day, and he advised his partner to bus him, saying this at post 177:

Et: vote for me. Rivera will switch in the end and you will look better if you vote for me first

QESTION 2: Does Damo Sincerely Think That Xorxes Does Not Bus as Scum?

I see no evidence that Damo sincerely thinks that. He has not made that statement in any of the past twenty games, almost all of which both Damo and Xorxes played.

Damo, is this something that you recall other people saying that you picked up? Is it something you have said elsewhere? Is it something that you have believed secretly all this time, but you have only now said it for the first time?

Help me out here. Why do you believe Xorxes never busses? ANd why haven't you ever said that before in a game? Seems like a pretty awesome fact to have in mind, if it were true.

[Balki Bartokomous]

CONCLUSIONS FROM THIS LONG BUS RIDE

(1) I find it unlikely that Scum!Xorxes cast that Bob vote for his partner, unless Xorxes is Patient Zero, and didn't know better.

(2) I am doubtful that Damo sincerely believes that Xorxes does not bus. But I want Damo (or anyone else) to tell me if that is common conventional wisdom around here. Please tell me.

[Jamiet99uk]

Great analysis there Balki.

I think the "Xorxes does not bus" thing comes from the fact that Xorxes often says it. Whenever anyone suggests Xorxes is bussing, his response is usually to claim that he never does so. I have seen Xorxes make such a statement in several games.

Interestingly, on page 133 of this game, he was more nuanced in answering Chaqa's comment about whether he would bus.

Hmm.

[damo666]

Cool.

If I were scum, my team could have hammered you, friend.

All 3 would need to be present. Where was Bunny?

I thought you were assuming Bunny is town based on his N6 post?

I was, my assumption has changed.

[damo666]

My best guess right now is damo, xorxes and maybe Bunny as PZ because of how blatantly xorxes was telling him to move his vote.

But I'm confused by Flum being the NK and need to reread and rethink.

Who do you think the scum team is?

See how the scumread of Flum sets this up!

Damo you're confusing "setting things up" with "reacting to new information." They're actually quite different.

I am saying your reaction had been set up by your EON reads post. Town will see through your obfuscation.