M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[damo666]

because kgray will have flipped scum and I will have flipped town meaning either you or Balki are remaining scum meaning you have to vote for each other as nothing else would make sense

And now that Flum was the NK, that doesn't change your assumption at all? Why in the world would I kill you N7 you if I were scum?

It wouldn't be you because you will have been lynched. Scum would NK me as your scum outs me as town.

[damo666]

Everyone slow down.

No End Votes. If you are Town voting end, you give scum a chance to win the game. We just got a ton of info. Let’s use it.

NO END VOTES

A signal

[damo666]

@Damo, if you are Town, because of the ridiculous hammer rules here, Scum could win right now.

Does ending need 4 or 5?

lol

[damo666]

@Damo, let’s say it’s a Balki/Jamiet/Kgray team, we could hammer you right now and win the game.

UNEND now or it’s a scum claim.

townclears Jamie and an appeal to the non present third man to appear and vote end to effect the hammer ?

[damo666]

@Damo,

Take a deep breath and explain why you think I am scum.

Taking a break

Cool.

If I were scum, my team could have hammered you, friend.

All 3 would need to be present. Where was Bunny?

[damo666]

The bot does not recognize the end vote with a space, not sure whether the GM will take it or not. damo, was that on purpose?

N O

[damo666]

Balki, Kgray, and myself were all clearly online at the same time there, for a period of 20 minutes or more, while Damo had an "end" vote up.

That was ample opportunity for the three of us, if we were scum together, to hammer the day together and end the game.

Anyone who is town, and thinks all three of Balki, Jamie, Kgray are scum, needs to consider why on earth we wouldn't have just done that.

because you're town i guess

[damo666]

Who do you think the full scum team is?

My best guess right now is damo, xorxes and maybe Bunny as PZ because of how blatantly xorxes was telling him to move his vote.

But I'm confused by Flum being the NK and need to reread and rethink.

Who do you think the scum team is?

I’ll try to answer this tomorrow.

You are coming across as very Town to me.

Rofl

[damo666]

I'm going to make my full case tomorrow by looking at a lot more than just D6, and will present it with the rest of town's perspective of not knowing I am town in mind. Here are my reads in the very, very unlikely event that I'm the night kill.

*for the most part, any of my townreads could be PZ, depending on how many remaining players' alignments PZ knows. I don't think we should lynch to find PZ though, so it doesn't really matter yet.

Balki: town
I think Balki making sure the day ended on time is about as townie of a thing I've seen. There's no way Balki is nonPZ scum based on the EOD. And I get what Bunny was saying about yomi but there's literally no reason to extend the game just to play mind games. This is part of why I'm pretty convinced that everyone who was on my wagon is not nonPZ scum, because any scum (including a potential PZ who knows my alignment) would have switched to my wagon. Balki especially seemed like he wanted a tie. No matter how "tricksy" you think Balki is, there's no reason at all for him to extend the game if he's nonPZ scum.

bozo: town
I think bozo is town. I'm not fully convinced he'll be the NK because he's pretty determined that I'm scum, and scum are now trying to get me to be their last mislynch, but I do agree that he's the most townread player here. If bozo is alive tomorrow I'll reread him again. I think a lot of us have accepted that he's town and he hasn't gotten much pressure, so we should watch out in case he's deep undercover.

Bunny: town
Similar to Balki, there's no reason why nonPZ scum-Bunny would have ended the day NOT voting for me. He'd been pushing me all day (for reasons I still don't agree with) and xorxes explicitly called him to vote for me. Bunny had all kinds of chances to vote pro-scum and didn't. He did the same thing D3, when he had opportunities to move his vote off bob, which I also interpreted as towny. Then, it's possible he could have been bussing. But here, nonPZ scum-Bunny (or PZ Bunny who knows I'm town) would have moved off of damo and onto me, and ended the game.

damo: SCUM
So many reasons why I think damo is scum, which I've mentioned at length. The way D6 ended pretty much confirms it. I'm willing to consider it was TvT and scum were too scared to end things for some reason, but I think it's so much more likely that the obvious solution is the correct solution: damo is scum, and the scum who knew that I am town were already voting for me. There is no reason for them to intentionally continue the game, no matter how many mind games you think they're playing. If I had been lynched, scum would have won. So scum either froze at the end of the day, or they were already doing what they could to lynch a town and save their partner. Also, damo's refusal to even consider it was TvT is pretty scum-indicative to me. It's just the latest in a long list of damo making some assumption that is not proven to be true and refusing to challenge it because claiming that it's a fact helps him push his agenda.

Flum: scummy?
Flum is hard for me to figure out because of all the "weird" things he does. The recent thing that really makes me suspicious is his willingness to decide that it was TvS but seemingly not really question which of damo and me is the scum. And his reasons for scumreading me don't make a lot of sense to me. He says I was voting to stay alive - yeah, because if I got lynched scum would have won. He says I wasn't pushing my scumreads - false, damo is my top scumread. Me voting for townies isn't unique to me - damo has also voted for townies consistently. I get that maybe this is OMGUS but from my POV, these seem like really weak reasons to justify his townread on damo and his scumread on me.

Jamie: town
Same deal as with Balki/Bunny, he would have moved to my wagon to end the game as nonPZ scum. This is on top of a lot of reasons why I townread Jamie. I haven't challenged my read of him for a while, so I will need to do that tomorrow. But I really think he's town.

xorxes: SCUM
Where did his sudden scumread of me come from D6? He said it was mostly by POE. You'd think someone with his reputation would have more concrete reasons to scumread the person they're voting to lynch in mylo. And if it was from POE, what made him so sure damo was town? Look at what xorxes says about damo and I during this game and decide if you think his strong preference to lynch me over damo makes sense. I think xorxes' "scumread" of me developed because xorxes decided I was an easy mislynch, with bozo set on me and Bunny tunneling. And then xorxes tried to get Bunny to jump back on my wagon to secure his scum victory. Not to mention all the dead townies that had suspicions of him, for reasons that I can now understand.

Note the scum read of Flum at EON knowing Flum is about to be NK'd and flip town.

[damo666]

I'm not going to keep harping on this, but my point about xorxes not having a "good" reason for scumreading me is not about who he decides to vote for today. My point is that he went out of his way to avoid a tie and get me lynched in mylo without a "good" reason to think I'm scum. Even if you don't know that I'm town, that's got to raise some red flags.

Who do you think the full scum team is?

My best guess right now is damo, xorxes and maybe Bunny as PZ because of how blatantly xorxes was telling him to move his vote.

But I'm confused by Flum being the NK and need to reread and rethink.

Who do you think the scum team is?

See how the scumread of Flum sets this up!

[damo666]

@Xorxes,

The Flum flip should be helpful for you, right? That should give you a chance to revisit your reads?

Looking forward to what you come up with.

The Flum flip is indeed helpful. It makes my prediction of a Bozo NK wrong.

Consider a scum team excluding Balki. Surely they NK Bozo in the hope that my strategy to lynch kgray d7 then Balki D8 is followed which would be a scum victory even with kgray as scum.

Therefore I assume Balki must be in the scumteam with kgray. I now think Bunny is the likeliest third man.

[damo666]

I'm pretty sure Balki will vote for me and Xorxes for kgray.

This leaves Jamie and Bunny and whoever is third man will vote for me (assuming they have now investigated either kgray or me which after yesterday they would have done last night had they not previously). Whoever of Bunny and Jamie is town you must vote for kgray or the game is lost.

[BunnyGo]

I'm not going to keep harping on this, but my point about xorxes not having a "good" reason for scumreading me is not about who he decides to vote for today. My point is that he went out of his way to avoid a tie and get me lynched in mylo without a "good" reason to think I'm scum. Even if you don't know that I'm town, that's got to raise some red flags.

Who do you think the full scum team is?

My best guess right now is damo, xorxes and maybe Bunny as PZ because of how blatantly xorxes was telling him to move his vote.

But I'm confused by Flum being the NK and need to reread and rethink.

Who do you think the scum team is?

Umm...wasn't it Flum blatantly telling me to move my vote?

I have to admit, I was all set to really scumread Flum for that at EOD, and then for not posting ANYTHING during the night. As if he *knew* he'd be alive. Shows me...

OK, off to go do the research I said I'd do.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Xorxes,

The Flum flip should be helpful for you, right? That should give you a chance to revisit your reads?

Looking forward to what you come up with.

The Flum flip is indeed helpful. It makes my prediction of a Bozo NK wrong.

Consider a scum team excluding Balki. Surely they NK Bozo in the hope that my strategy to lynch kgray d7 then Balki D8 is followed which would be a scum victory even with kgray as scum.

Therefore I assume Balki must be in the scumteam with kgray. I now think Bunny is the likeliest third man.

So, under your theory, you are assuming that the town will follow your plan.

Serious question: when has the town ever followed your plan?

I don’t mean to be flippant. Seriously, do you think the town is taking instructions from you?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Just spitballing here:

A Bozo/Damo scumteam? Does that hold up?

[BunnyGo]

Just spitballing here:

A Bozo/Damo scumteam? Does that hold up?

See my night post on this.

My reread of Bozo was pretty towny. But I didn't specifically look at the two of them together. It is one of the things I said I'd look into. You should too!

[Balki Bartokomous]

Just spitballing here:

A Bozo/Damo scumteam? Does that hold up?

See my night post on this.

My reread of Bozo was pretty towny. But I didn't specifically look at the two of them together. It is one of the things I said I'd look into. You should too!

Yep. Good.

Just hoping all townies put in the work now. Now is not the time for preconceived notions.

[kgray]

because kgray will have flipped scum and I will have flipped town meaning either you or Balki are remaining scum meaning you have to vote for each other as nothing else would make sense

And now that Flum was the NK, that doesn't change your assumption at all? Why in the world would I kill you N7 you if I were scum?

It wouldn't be you because you will have been lynched. Scum would NK me as your scum outs me as town.

My point is, you seem to have been assuming - insisting, even - that bozo would be the night kill. Now we learn that Flum is the night kill. And yet, despite this not being your prediction, somehow, this does not change any part of your analysis about the game. That makes no sense.

[kgray]

Taking a break

Cool.

If I were scum, my team could have hammered you, friend.

All 3 would need to be present. Where was Bunny?

I thought you were assuming Bunny is town based on his N6 post?

[kgray]

Who do you think the full scum team is?

My best guess right now is damo, xorxes and maybe Bunny as PZ because of how blatantly xorxes was telling him to move his vote.

But I'm confused by Flum being the NK and need to reread and rethink.

Who do you think the scum team is?

See how the scumread of Flum sets this up!

Damo you're confusing "setting things up" with "reacting to new information." They're actually quite different.