M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Balki Bartokomous]

Scum: Balki
Was a very loud supporter of the "only people on EMC wagon should get lynched" and that led town astray. If he is scum, then that's exactly what he'd do. The way to read Balki is to see if he pushes town towards loss or victory. This has ended up being textbook scum Balki. It just took a few mislynches to find out.

Here is the other reason that Flum put down as a reason why I am sum.

Argh....now I feel like Flum is scum.

Flum,

(1) it was a sound and reasonable play to ask the town to focus on the people who voted for town in the 7-6 Scum v Town lynch, right? Are you saying that Town!Balki wouldn't have adamantly argued for that?

(2) I read EMC as town on Day 4 and advocated strongly against his lynch, do you recall that? So, under your theory, "the way to read Balki is to see if he pushes town toward loss or victory"... On that day, what was I doing? I was trying to save our mislynch... But I couldn't, despite a heck of a lot of effort. How does that factor into your analysis?

(3) I am responsible for the Fox kill. That was my mistake. 100%. You also might recall, I have pushed very hard against some of your absolutely wrong scum reads, and it turns out I was right. You were adamant in your scumread of Chaqa -- I pushed back. You were adament in your scumread of EMC -- I pushed back.

If there is a read Town!Flum in there somewhere, I wouldn't think you'd be suspicious of me for getting the game wrong. I've certainly made mistakes. But there has been good with bad. It doesn't seem like a sincere process for you to cherry pick my mistakes and ignore the things I've gotten right. And I also don't believe you are a results-based analysis guy.

Also, if you are Town!Flum, you know that I have basically been reading you as town and defending you for most of the game. So...I would think that Town!Flum would think that I've been on the right track a fair amount. Right?

[damo666]

@Balki who is kgray's nonPVscumpartner?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki who is kgray's nonPVscumpartner?

It's so hard for me to consider kgray being scum now, as I just voted to save her at MYLO, and we didn't lose...

But, it's not impossible. I need to do some thinking about partner pairings that can be eliminated. I'll do that after we see the Night Kill. I think the Night Kill is hardly obvious, as you suggest.

[xorxes]

@Xorxes,

Can you speak to something for me please?

I have not gone back to re-read the last day yet, but, just perusing the vote tracker:

You were voting Flum and pushing Flum all day. Then, at the end, you switched to vote with Flum in a critical MYLO vote.

What happened there? DId it concern you that you were votig with your top scum read at MYLO, and what is your current read on Flum?

I had to decide between kgray and damo, and I thought damo was the more likely town. I thought Flum could have been bussing. That's less likely now given the tie, but he could still be PZ, or he could even have been bussing kgray but afraid to move to damo in case Bunny switched back to kgray.

[bozotheclown]

Here is the lynch order preference everyone gave:

Balki: damo, Fluminator, kgray
bozo: kgray, damo, Fluminator
BunnyGo:
damo: Fluminator, kgray, damo
Fluminator:
Jamie: damo, Fluminator, kgray
kgray: damo, Fluminator, kgray
xorxes: Fluminator, kgray, damo

The purpose of asking for this was to try consolidate to 2 wagons, but also to force scum to lock in their vote preference, because they were likely deciding between voting for town to go for the win or bussing a teammate to look better in case their teammate got lynched (unless all wagons were town, which I think is unlikely). BunnyGo and Fluminator did not respond, which, if either is scum, gave them flexibility in changing their vote.

BunnyGo did change his vote, and was on all 3 wagons within 5 minutes between 16 minutes before EOD and 11 minutes before EOD. Despite pushing a kgray lynch all day D5, he voted for Fluminator 56 minutes before EOD, indicating kgray was his second choice:

@Bunny get off the NoLynch

Fine. An hour to go. Were lynching today. Not going to let scum stop us. ##vote Flum.

Would go to kgray. Would consider xorxes. At work/kids. On sporadically.

When we were consolidating to 2 wagons, BunnyGo did vote for kgray:

Fine, ##VOTE Kgray.

However, 4 minutes later, after xorxes voted for kgray to put her up 5-3, BunnyGo changed his vote to damo:

OK, just finished rereading my own previous rereads on damo. I don't know how I forgot all that. Fine kgray, hat tip to you if you're scum. ##vote Damo

His reason was that he "forgot" something about he reread of damo, but this is the only thing I could find where he talks about rereading damo:

These three damo posts stand out on reread. Both for what they literally say, and for the interaction with Flum.

This end voting is a mistake given the vote distribution is not considered. It is too easily manipulated by scum.

Anybody not unending I will consider to be a scum.

Happy to vote any of the lurkers.

How about this for a theory?

There is always an example of busing on day 1.

Top 3 wagons were TvTvT ( worcej the only unknown but widely townread).

Xorxes never busses.

Hence EMC and Flum are a scumpair.

Voila!

If scum want to show themselves this way, let them.

Also, the whole "if you don't do this, you are scum" is... just not a good play. Either you don't mean it, or you're just announcing the rubric for scum to play by.

Ok fair point.

##end

I think it's actually fairly towny that damo gets talked into it.

1) He says something about Xorxes bussing, before the Bob wagon. I don't know whether to think that means Xorxes decided to bus (since Damo said this), or never busses. Thoughts Damo?
2) He calls out EMC/Flum scumpair. He was wrong about EMC, but I wonder if this influenced putative scum!Flum. Will keep in mind when checking Flum's interactions with EMC.

It sounds like BunnyGo's reread of damo resulted in a town read of him. Also, 5 minutes after this post, BunnyGo posts this, where he says he strongly disagrees with a town read of kgray:

I am up to page 122.

##vote Damo

I don't feel great about it, but it's where I am right now. Mostly process of elimination. Six EMC voters on Day 3:

rdrivera Foxcastle Chaqa Jamiet Damo kgray

I am townreading Jamiet for picking fights, running upstream, and for sulit's interaction with him.

I've got a townlean on kgray because she seems like she's trying to solve.

Argh...could scum have just given up on Bob due to low activity and decided to bus? Yes.

I am getting nervous about Flum and Xorx. Doesn't feel like they think they are about to lose if we don't get this right.

For the record, I disagree strongly on kgray. She's continued her "ask questions that seem probing" methodology. It's easy to hide as scum like that. It's like the pretentious college student who always plays "devils advocate" and thinks their a genius because of it. She's not solving, she's asking devils advocate questions to seem like she's solving. Reread her with that light...

I also (for the record yet again) STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH LYNCHING!!! STOP IT or explain *clearly* why you think town needs to take a stand today. One where we're all in, and not going to let scum talk us into lynching town or out of lynching scum.

BunnyGo's reason for switching his vote from kgray to damo just does not make any sense from what he said previously. It looks to me like BunnyGo was going back and forth between bussing kgray and trying to get a town lynch. Why would he do something this obvious as scum? Maybe he thought his D5 bus of kgray was enough to not look like her teammate. On D5 BunnyGo came out voting for kgray when it seemed there was little chance she would get lynched, in fact I think it was the first vote on her all game.

If kgray and BunnyGo are not the primary scum, it is possible BunnyGo is patient zero and he knew the alignment of kgray.

[kgray]

I'm going to make my full case tomorrow by looking at a lot more than just D6, and will present it with the rest of town's perspective of not knowing I am town in mind. Here are my reads in the very, very unlikely event that I'm the night kill.

*for the most part, any of my townreads could be PZ, depending on how many remaining players' alignments PZ knows. I don't think we should lynch to find PZ though, so it doesn't really matter yet.

Balki: town
I think Balki making sure the day ended on time is about as townie of a thing I've seen. There's no way Balki is nonPZ scum based on the EOD. And I get what Bunny was saying about yomi but there's literally no reason to extend the game just to play mind games. This is part of why I'm pretty convinced that everyone who was on my wagon is not nonPZ scum, because any scum (including a potential PZ who knows my alignment) would have switched to my wagon. Balki especially seemed like he wanted a tie. No matter how "tricksy" you think Balki is, there's no reason at all for him to extend the game if he's nonPZ scum.

bozo: town
I think bozo is town. I'm not fully convinced he'll be the NK because he's pretty determined that I'm scum, and scum are now trying to get me to be their last mislynch, but I do agree that he's the most townread player here. If bozo is alive tomorrow I'll reread him again. I think a lot of us have accepted that he's town and he hasn't gotten much pressure, so we should watch out in case he's deep undercover.

Bunny: town
Similar to Balki, there's no reason why nonPZ scum-Bunny would have ended the day NOT voting for me. He'd been pushing me all day (for reasons I still don't agree with) and xorxes explicitly called him to vote for me. Bunny had all kinds of chances to vote pro-scum and didn't. He did the same thing D3, when he had opportunities to move his vote off bob, which I also interpreted as towny. Then, it's possible he could have been bussing. But here, nonPZ scum-Bunny (or PZ Bunny who knows I'm town) would have moved off of damo and onto me, and ended the game.

damo: SCUM
So many reasons why I think damo is scum, which I've mentioned at length. The way D6 ended pretty much confirms it. I'm willing to consider it was TvT and scum were too scared to end things for some reason, but I think it's so much more likely that the obvious solution is the correct solution: damo is scum, and the scum who knew that I am town were already voting for me. There is no reason for them to intentionally continue the game, no matter how many mind games you think they're playing. If I had been lynched, scum would have won. So scum either froze at the end of the day, or they were already doing what they could to lynch a town and save their partner. Also, damo's refusal to even consider it was TvT is pretty scum-indicative to me. It's just the latest in a long list of damo making some assumption that is not proven to be true and refusing to challenge it because claiming that it's a fact helps him push his agenda.

Flum: scummy?
Flum is hard for me to figure out because of all the "weird" things he does. The recent thing that really makes me suspicious is his willingness to decide that it was TvS but seemingly not really question which of damo and me is the scum. And his reasons for scumreading me don't make a lot of sense to me. He says I was voting to stay alive - yeah, because if I got lynched scum would have won. He says I wasn't pushing my scumreads - false, damo is my top scumread. Me voting for townies isn't unique to me - damo has also voted for townies consistently. I get that maybe this is OMGUS but from my POV, these seem like really weak reasons to justify his townread on damo and his scumread on me.

Jamie: town
Same deal as with Balki/Bunny, he would have moved to my wagon to end the game as nonPZ scum. This is on top of a lot of reasons why I townread Jamie. I haven't challenged my read of him for a while, so I will need to do that tomorrow. But I really think he's town.

xorxes: SCUM
Where did his sudden scumread of me come from D6? He said it was mostly by POE. You'd think someone with his reputation would have more concrete reasons to scumread the person they're voting to lynch in mylo. And if it was from POE, what made him so sure damo was town? Look at what xorxes says about damo and I during this game and decide if you think his strong preference to lynch me over damo makes sense. I think xorxes' "scumread" of me developed because xorxes decided I was an easy mislynch, with bozo set on me and Bunny tunneling. And then xorxes tried to get Bunny to jump back on my wagon to secure his scum victory. Not to mention all the dead townies that had suspicions of him, for reasons that I can now understand.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Phase should be over, right?

[Jamiet99uk]

Yeah. Let's assume until further notice that:

PHASE HAS ENDED

[Nephthys]

Fluminator has died they were a vanilla town.

Day has begun

[damo666]

Fluminator has died they were a vanilla town.

Day has begun

Lovely. Proves Balki not town.

##vote kgray

vote Balki next

game over

## end

[Jamiet99uk]

RIP, Fluminator.

You were one hell of a weirdo this game. I will now scumread you any time you are normal, so I hope when you do roll scum next, you can keep up this bizarre flaky persona.

[Jamiet99uk]

Lovely. Proves Balki not town.

Assume I'm quite tired and need this explaining to me.

Why does Fluminator's flip prove that Balki is scum?

[damo666]

If Balki were town scum would have killed Bozo so that my strategy would see town Balki lynched.

Balki is scum so they panicked and looked for a nonn Bozo NK.

They fell into my trap.

[Jamiet99uk]

Also, Damo, if you are certain you have proof that Balki is Mafia, I dare you to vote for Balki.

[damo666]

Lovely. Proves Balki not town.

Assume I'm quite tired and need this explaining to me.

Why does Fluminator's flip prove that Balki is scum?

Not proof exactly but if my theory is correct you are town. Does that help?

[Jamiet99uk]

Lovely. Proves Balki not town.

Assume I'm quite tired and need this explaining to me.

Why does Fluminator's flip prove that Balki is scum?

Not proof exactly but if my theory is correct you are town. Does that help?

Not really no because I don't care about scum declaring they "townread" me.

Let's look at this theory of yours. I assume you mean this:

This is how I think things will go:

N6 Bozo NKd Town 4-3 up

D7 kgray lynched (I think this will happen quite quickly, I won't explain why as I want scum to make an error but townsfolk consider that one of our team voted for me) - flips scum Town 4-2 up

N7 I am NKd - Town 3-2 up

D8 This is do or die day

I think the best strategy is to lynch Balki (Balki and Jamie must vote for each other regardless of alignment so lynching Balki will be possible).

Roughly 1/6 chance Balki is town, game over and scum have won.

If Balki flips scum (50%) then 3-1 up N8 say Xorxes NK so town 2-1 up, D9 lynch Bunny 34/(100-34) = say half chance PZ, half town so townvic 25%, scumvic 25%

If Balki flips PZ (34%) then D( lynch Jamie, game over town win.

In the highlighted part, why must Jamie and Balki vote for each other regardless of alignment?

[kgray]

Fluminator has died they were a vanilla town.

Day has begun

Lovely. Proves Balki not town.

##vote kgray

vote Balki next

game over

## end

Ridiculous. This proves absolutely nothing except that Flum was town, and you know it. I refuse to believe you're this dense.

[damo666]

Also, Damo, if you are certain you have proof that Balki is Mafia, I dare you to vote for Balki.

##vote Balki

[kgray]

if damo is scum and kgray is town (or both are town) we're probably screwed.

So just to be clear, you're not considering this possibility because if it's true then town can't win? Bunny was right, you're being lazy.

I am considering it, or I wouldn't have mentioned it. Which of the two do you think is more likely?

xorxes which of these do you think is more likely? And if you assume either case, what conclusions would you draw?

[xorxes]

Fluminator has died they were a vanilla town.

Day has begun

Lovely. Proves Balki not town.

##vote kgray

vote Balki next

game over

## end

Even if you are correct it is not game over. One more scum is needed.