M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Jamiet99uk]

Let me ask you another question, Damo.

What do you think the chances are that you and me are both town?

[BunnyGo]

OK. My apologies all, exhaustion has been getting to me. Taking the rest of the day/night off to clear my head has helped. Here are some thoughts:

1) First analyze the play from a Yomi 0 standpoint. That is "Scum are trying to win, and not being particularly tricky, because they are winning if the can"

2) Then try "Scum are being tricky for some reason"

3) Then try "Scum are being 2nd level tricky"

I think this is better than "odds". I really hate using probability here. Things are, or they are not. There is no "odds" even from mpov or ypov or hpov.

OK, that said:

1) Scum will win if they can. So, the first case that came to mind with this thinking yesterday is what I was worried about with our non-choice: Scum control the outcome of the votes if we're right. I was thinking it was S v S, and so Scum controlled the finish perfectly for them. Now we doubt everything, and it'll be hard to nail both scum later.

I no longer think this is the case (The S v S option). Why? Because damo/kgray were bussing each other hard when they had other wagons. The only reason they were the last two wagons is neither of them pushed xorxes or flum particularly hard. Kgray jumped to damo rather than stay on Flum...this would NOT comply with the theory that scum were playing to win.

Could it be T v T if the yomi 0 theory holds? No. Scum can always manage to finish a lynch there. Actually, that's not entirely true. My late movement to damo surprised people. And then Balki spoke up to make it harder for scum to move (for the record, I don't necessarily believe Flum's statement after the fact he was going to move, but Balki's statement could have frozen scum; in the yomi 0 T v T Balki is definitely town).

OK, so that means we were in S v T (in the yomi 0 theory). In this case both knowing scum are on the same wagon. There are 2 cases:

1) Damo is Scum, and so is one of bozo/flum/xorx
2) Kgray is Scum, ad so is one of Balki/Jamie/(me from ypov)

Of those two lists, I much more strongly scumread flum/xorx than Balki/Jamie (I agree with Damo that Bozo seems towny...this could be scum protecting somehow? That's kind of a Yomi 2 level play...)

OK, I think that's all the yomi 0 options. Let's look at yomi 1:

Why would scum not win directly if they could? Maybe there was movement that prevented them from spiking the football (sorry non-americans) and instead they are playing to win the next round if we get a lynch today. This could be in any of:

T v T where the scum are on separate wagons
S v T where one scum stayed voting on their teammate

I find analyzing yomi 1 very hard in mafia. Maybe it suggests that this is the wrong way to do it, but it's how I play games...so this could explain why I suck at mafia. So let me try (maybe you'll get a glimpse into Bunny's insanity).

Why would kgray/damo bus each other? Well...there were 3/4 wagons and somebody (like me) doing any reasonable analysis would say "hmm...they can't both be scum, that'd be moronic". Then we lynch one, and the other dances to victory. A

Why would scum let T v T skate by? Similar reasons. Maybe moving when there were 4 wagons and people dancing around between them, they just decide to stay on separate ones. Makes it harder to find later. Maybe they expected me to dance back to kgray? Maybe they just agreed pre-mylo "whatever happens don't end on same wagon; let's play for long win". All of these are reasonable.


Maybe the better analysis to do is like Damo's or what I was doing the previous night (analyzing scum pairs), but this is how I naturally think through games. It's why I was advocating no-lynch and deciding on lynching hard, and why I was frustrated (it throws my analysis into a tizzy and I get more confused than I already am). I'll try and analyze scum teams more. From before the summary is:

kgray pairs well with xorxes/flum EXCEPT they both ended up voting on her. It only works if they are at least yomi 1 (maybe even 2).

I need to analyze who damo is with better.

I need to look at kgray/jamie and kgray/balki better. I remember Balki blatantly praising kgray, but I don't remember much else.

Bozo I looked at in ISO, but maybe need to look at him and damo closely. Maybe he seems scummier then.

OK. I don't know if I'll be on again before EON. If I'm around tomorrow, I'll try and do better not getting caught in a yomi spiral.

[damo666]

Let me ask you another question, Damo.

What do you think the chances are that you and me are both town?

38% see post #4653

[BunnyGo]

Oh and for those who don’t use the term yomi the same way (I know I confused xorxes in a previous game). I learned the term from swordsman (my diplomacy mentor). He says it translates roughly as “knowing your enemy’s mind”. So in games it’s about predicting and understanding your opponent.

[damo666]

OK. My apologies all, exhaustion has been getting to me. Taking the rest of the day/night off to clear my head has helped. Here are some thoughts:

1) First analyze the play from a Yomi 0 standpoint. That is "Scum are trying to win, and not being particularly tricky, because they are winning if the can"

2) Then try "Scum are being tricky for some reason"

3) Then try "Scum are being 2nd level tricky"

I think this is better than "odds". I really hate using probability here. Things are, or they are not. There is no "odds" even from mpov or ypov or hpov.

OK, that said:

1) Scum will win if they can. So, the first case that came to mind with this thinking yesterday is what I was worried about with our non-choice: Scum control the outcome of the votes if we're right. I was thinking it was S v S, and so Scum controlled the finish perfectly for them. Now we doubt everything, and it'll be hard to nail both scum later.

I no longer think this is the case (The S v S option). Why? Because damo/kgray were bussing each other hard when they had other wagons. The only reason they were the last two wagons is neither of them pushed xorxes or flum particularly hard. Kgray jumped to damo rather than stay on Flum...this would NOT comply with the theory that scum were playing to win.

Could it be T v T if the yomi 0 theory holds? No. Scum can always manage to finish a lynch there. Actually, that's not entirely true. My late movement to damo surprised people. And then Balki spoke up to make it harder for scum to move (for the record, I don't necessarily believe Flum's statement after the fact he was going to move, but Balki's statement could have frozen scum; in the yomi 0 T v T Balki is definitely town).

OK, so that means we were in S v T (in the yomi 0 theory). In this case both knowing scum are on the same wagon. There are 2 cases:

1) Damo is Scum, and so is one of bozo/flum/xorx
2) Kgray is Scum, ad so is one of Balki/Jamie/(me from ypov)

Of those two lists, I much more strongly scumread flum/xorx than Balki/Jamie (I agree with Damo that Bozo seems towny...this could be scum protecting somehow? That's kind of a Yomi 2 level play...)

OK, I think that's all the yomi 0 options. Let's look at yomi 1:

Why would scum not win directly if they could? Maybe there was movement that prevented them from spiking the football (sorry non-americans) and instead they are playing to win the next round if we get a lynch today. This could be in any of:

T v T where the scum are on separate wagons
S v T where one scum stayed voting on their teammate

I find analyzing yomi 1 very hard in mafia. Maybe it suggests that this is the wrong way to do it, but it's how I play games...so this could explain why I suck at mafia. So let me try (maybe you'll get a glimpse into Bunny's insanity).

Why would kgray/damo bus each other? Well...there were 3/4 wagons and somebody (like me) doing any reasonable analysis would say "hmm...they can't both be scum, that'd be moronic". Then we lynch one, and the other dances to victory. A

Why would scum let T v T skate by? Similar reasons. Maybe moving when there were 4 wagons and people dancing around between them, they just decide to stay on separate ones. Makes it harder to find later. Maybe they expected me to dance back to kgray? Maybe they just agreed pre-mylo "whatever happens don't end on same wagon; let's play for long win". All of these are reasonable.


Maybe the better analysis to do is like Damo's or what I was doing the previous night (analyzing scum pairs), but this is how I naturally think through games. It's why I was advocating no-lynch and deciding on lynching hard, and why I was frustrated (it throws my analysis into a tizzy and I get more confused than I already am). I'll try and analyze scum teams more. From before the summary is:

kgray pairs well with xorxes/flum EXCEPT they both ended up voting on her. It only works if they are at least yomi 1 (maybe even 2).

I need to analyze who damo is with better.

I need to look at kgray/jamie and kgray/balki better. I remember Balki blatantly praising kgray, but I don't remember much else.

Bozo I looked at in ISO, but maybe need to look at him and damo closely. Maybe he seems scummier then.

OK. I don't know if I'll be on again before EON. If I'm around tomorrow, I'll try and do better not getting caught in a yomi spiral.

I like this post. So assuming Bunny is town (and Flum as per recent) the only possibilities I have left are

Scum kgray and Balki PZ Xorxes or Jamie

Scum kgray and Jamie PZ Balki or Xorxes

so basically 3 possible teams kBX kBJ kJX

[damo666]

kBJ 80%
kBX 15%
kJX 5%

partly analytical partly subjective

[xorxes]

kgray could be PZ and not know who her teammates are. In that case that would be two of Bunny/Balki/Jamie, with Bunny being the most likely for his late move to damo, probably with Balki.

If she is not PZ then Bunny>Balki>Jamie is her teammate and PZ could be one of the other two or Flum>bozo.

It's also possible that kgray and damo are both scum, but that's unlikely for the reasons Bunny pointed out.

if damo is scum and kgray is town (or both are town) we're probably screwed.

[damo666]

kgray could be PZ and not know who her teammates are. In that case that would be two of Bunny/Balki/Jamie, with Bunny being the most likely for his late move to damo, probably with Balki.

If she is not PZ then Bunny>Balki>Jamie is her teammate and PZ could be one of the other two or Flum>bozo.

It's also possible that kgray and damo are both scum, but that's unlikely for the reasons Bunny pointed out.

if damo is scum and kgray is town (or both are town) we're probably screwed.

Hmmm never considered that. Silly omission. However given my Bunnytake this would make Jamie and Balki scum and my 3 possible scumteams remain.

Of course this could be PZ Xorxes trying to throw us off the scent, throwing kgray under the bus. I find it curious he puts Bunny ahead of Balki and Jamie so kBX and kJX are still possible but kBJ remains my favourite.

[kgray]

P.S. Do you think kgray can come up with a mirror analysis. Not a hope.

Well, I'm not going to make up arbitrary probabilities, draw conclusions with no supporting evidence, or assume that a convenient fact is true "for the sake of argument." So no, I will not be mirroring this analysis.

I'll present my case D7 after seeing who scum NK.

[damo666]

P.S. Do you think kgray can come up with a mirror analysis. Not a hope.

Well, I'm not going to make up arbitrary probabilities, draw conclusions with no supporting evidence, or assume that a convenient fact is true "for the sake of argument." So no, I will not be mirroring this analysis.

I'll present my case D7 after seeing who scum NK.

Any probabilities would be made up because you know everyone's alignment, you also know who the NK will be. You do not have a case. However for the sake of others' pov why are you not presenting a fabricated case now? Are you still trying to concoct a rescue mission in mafchat?

[xorxes]

kgray could be PZ and not know who her teammates are. In that case that would be two of Bunny/Balki/Jamie, with Bunny being the most likely for his late move to damo, probably with Balki.

If she is not PZ then Bunny>Balki>Jamie is her teammate and PZ could be one of the other two or Flum>bozo.

It's also possible that kgray and damo are both scum, but that's unlikely for the reasons Bunny pointed out.

if damo is scum and kgray is town (or both are town) we're probably screwed.

Hmmm never considered that. Silly omission. However given my Bunnytake this would make Jamie and Balki scum and my 3 possible scumteams remain.

Of course this could be PZ Xorxes trying to throw us off the scent, throwing kgray under the bus. I find it curious he puts Bunny ahead of Balki and Jamie so kBX and kJX are still possible but kBJ remains my favourite.

Because of his late move from kgray to you when he had been wanting to lynch kgray before.

[damo666]

kgray could be PZ and not know who her teammates are. In that case that would be two of Bunny/Balki/Jamie, with Bunny being the most likely for his late move to damo, probably with Balki.

If she is not PZ then Bunny>Balki>Jamie is her teammate and PZ could be one of the other two or Flum>bozo.

It's also possible that kgray and damo are both scum, but that's unlikely for the reasons Bunny pointed out.

if damo is scum and kgray is town (or both are town) we're probably screwed.

Hmmm never considered that. Silly omission. However given my Bunnytake this would make Jamie and Balki scum and my 3 possible scumteams remain.

Of course this could be PZ Xorxes trying to throw us off the scent, throwing kgray under the bus. I find it curious he puts Bunny ahead of Balki and Jamie so kBX and kJX are still possible but kBJ remains my favourite.

Because of his late move from kgray to you when he had been wanting to lynch kgray before.

I think you can argue this as scummy, undecided ignorant PZ, or town desirous of no lynch so I don't find it that AI and I did like his recent post. I appreciate your view though. I still think you are roughly 80% town 20% PZ.

Unfortunately I can't see us getting any further clues and eventually it will be a guess.

[kgray]

P.S. Do you think kgray can come up with a mirror analysis. Not a hope.

Well, I'm not going to make up arbitrary probabilities, draw conclusions with no supporting evidence, or assume that a convenient fact is true "for the sake of argument." So no, I will not be mirroring this analysis.

I'll present my case D7 after seeing who scum NK.

Any probabilities would be made up because you know everyone's alignment, you also know who the NK will be. You do not have a case. However for the sake of others' pov why are you not presenting a fabricated case now? Are you still trying to concoct a rescue mission in mafchat?

Lol okay damo. I'm not making a case right now because knowing who mafia kills will help me figure things out. It will be one more piece of information I can use. It's not like they're going to kill me, I'm their best chance at a mislynch.

[kgray]

if damo is scum and kgray is town (or both are town) we're probably screwed.

So just to be clear, you're not considering this possibility because if it's true then town can't win? Bunny was right, you're being lazy.

[xorxes]

if damo is scum and kgray is town (or both are town) we're probably screwed.

So just to be clear, you're not considering this possibility because if it's true then town can't win? Bunny was right, you're being lazy.

I am considering it, or I wouldn't have mentioned it. Which of the two do you think is more likely?

[kgray]

if damo is scum and kgray is town (or both are town) we're probably screwed.

So just to be clear, you're not considering this possibility because if it's true then town can't win? Bunny was right, you're being lazy.

I am considering it, or I wouldn't have mentioned it. Which of the two do you think is more likely?

I think that it's very unlikely that scum wouldn't have switched wagons to end the game if it were TvT, so even without me scumreading damo I would think it was TvS. Obviously this implies damo is scum, but I have other reasons to believe he is scum too.

[damo666]

if damo is scum and kgray is town (or both are town) we're probably screwed.

So just to be clear, you're not considering this possibility because if it's true then town can't win? Bunny was right, you're being lazy.

this post from kgray makes me think X as PV is even less likely

[Jamiet99uk]

It's nice to see Damo finally make some effort.

I hope he's just town that's wrong about me, rather than cunning scum.

[Balki Bartokomous]

It's really hard to read people basically assuming you are scum, when you're town. And I am just hoping those people are just scum, as I'm getting the impression that their minds are made up.

The "they" I have in mind are Damo and Flum.

So, Damo and Flum, can each of you speak to me directly? Please spell it out for me why you think that I specifically am scum?

I did see one reason from Flum: essentially, I was too low-key yesterday. I can see Town!Flum thinking that. So, that makes me nervous. I agree that I was somewhat low-key. I think the reasons for that are (1) I genuinely didn't know the right call. I mean...I'm still not sure, legitimately. (2) I was on a video conference call for like the last 1.5 hours of the day. So, my attention was divided. (3) I'm not really getting much traction as a persuader in this game anyway.

So, I agree with your assessment that I was lower key yesterday. But I'm also town.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Xorxes,

Can you speak to something for me please?

I have not gone back to re-read the last day yet, but, just perusing the vote tracker:

You were voting Flum and pushing Flum all day. Then, at the end, you switched to vote with Flum in a critical MYLO vote.

What happened there? DId it concern you that you were votig with your top scum read at MYLO, and what is your current read on Flum?