M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Fluminator]

I mean if xorx is scum, he almost has to be patient zero, not one of the others in the know.

[xorxes]

I mean if xorx is scum, he almost has to be patient zero, not one of the others in the know.

Because damo is town?

[Fluminator]

I said if I'm correct Damo is town.

I thought his reaction to everything today was towny, but that could easily be confbiasing since I already townread him.
I'll be rereading kgray and damo both more closely tonight for sure.

[Jamiet99uk]

I said if I'm correct Damo is town.

I thought his reaction to everything today was towny, but that could easily be confbiasing since I already townread him.
I'll be rereading kgray and damo both more closely tonight for sure.

Damo repeatedly cast naked (i.e. unexplained) votes yesterday, and then you, Fluminator, challenge him to give some explanations, and this is what you get from Damo in response:

Damo, can you please post your explanations to your reads at this point? Or is it like your gimmick to not say anything super useful?

I'll do my best. By EON.

And your response is to think "oh, yes, how very towny".

Hmmmm.

Seems legit.

[Fluminator]

why did you delete half his post?

[Jamiet99uk]

why did you delete half his post?

I wanted to draw attention to the least towny part of it.

[Jamiet99uk]

You're either completely insufferable, Flum, or very good scum.

[Fluminator]

I'm sorry you feel that way.

I always was known as being a reaction tester (kind of my gimmick) when I played here more regularly because it really helps me get reads.
(And reaction tests aren't scummy imo if the thing getting the reaction isn't scummy intrinsically)

Unless there's something else I've done that's irritated you?
I don't think I've treated you with any disrespect this game.

I'm down to resolve it postgame if that's the case because I don't actually dislike you as a person.

[kgray]

Balki, Jamie and Bunny are town

You assume everyone not voting for you are town?

I strongly suspect that everyone not voting for me didn't know I am town, because if they had they could have easily switched to me and ended the game. Damo correctly pointed out that any of them could be PZ.

I am going to consider other possibilities, because I think it is not a good idea to assume things as facts. But from my POV, this is extremely informative.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm sorry you feel that way.

I always was known as being a reaction tester (kind of my gimmick) when I played here more regularly because it really helps me get reads.
(And reaction tests aren't scummy imo if the thing getting the reaction isn't scummy intrinsically)

Unless there's something else I've done that's irritated you?
I don't think I've treated you with any disrespect this game.

I'm down to resolve it postgame if that's the case because I don't actually dislike you as a person.

Ok look never mind about that.

Look at how Damo responded to you there, and tell me how that seems TOWN to you please?

Talk me through your weird thought process.

[damo666]

OK I have the solution for you.

Now I have a special pov as I was a tied wagon and I am town.

We must assume it wasn't TvT as scum could have killed it. Therefore kgray is scum.

Now, nonpvscum can't have been split between wagons or again the one bussing could have switched to kill me. Therefore either Balki, Jamie, or Bunny is the other scum.

Bunny's switch to me seems to obvious a scum to be scum and his voting record on D3 and D5 is pretty towny. He could be a wavering PZ not wanting to risk lynching a scummate but I think that given he was advocating no lynch he was deliberately tying it giving himself enough time to switch back if somebody else jumped.

Jamie's voting has been non towny throughout and Balki's not much better (day 3 apart) but he seems more solvey though I didn't like his opening gambit (too scummy to be scum?) - I would say Jamie the more likely scum but of course I'm not sure.

If PZ has scanned either me or kgray they must be on my wagon. Assuming random scanning ( I know it's not random but for the sake of argument allow me this) the chance of PZ having scanned me or kgray is 62%. If they haven't (38%) then roughly speaking they could have been on either wagon.

So, the chance PZ was on me is 62 + 38/2 = 81%.

So who is PZ? Bozo's voting record is pretty solid town, as is Xorxes.

Flum, Balki and Bunny have varied voting so are possible candidates.

Given the fact that PZ was likely on my wagon my best estimate is:

Scum: kgray & Jamie PZ: Balki (could swap Jamie & Balki)

If I'm wrong then prob Flum (or to a lesser extent Xorxes or Bunny) = PZ and either Balki or Jamie are town (sorry).

As I have already told you Bozo will be the NK and we will be none the wiser. Hopefully I goad scum into killing someone else to ease our task.

Thank you and good night.

P.S. Do you think kgray can come up with a mirror analysis. Not a hope.

[damo666]

OK I have the solution for you.

Now I have a special pov as I was a tied wagon and I am town.

We must assume it wasn't TvT as scum could have killed it. Therefore kgray is scum.

Now, nonpvscum can't have been split between wagons or again the one bussing could have switched to kill me. Therefore either Balki, Jamie, or Bunny is the other scum.

Bunny's switch to me seems to obvious a scum to be scum and his voting record on D3 and D5 is pretty towny. He could be a wavering PZ not wanting to risk lynching a scummate but I think that given he was advocating no lynch he was deliberately tying it giving himself enough time to switch back if somebody else jumped. So, my best guess is Bunny is town.

Jamie's voting has been non towny throughout and Balki's not much better (day 3 apart) but he seems more solvey though I didn't like his opening gambit (too scummy to be scum?) - I would say Jamie the more likely scum but of course I'm not sure.

If PZ has scanned either me or kgray they must be on my wagon. Assuming random scanning ( I know it's not random but for the sake of argument allow me this) the chance of PZ having scanned me or kgray is 62%. If they haven't (38%) then roughly speaking they could have been on either wagon.

So, the chance PZ was on me is 62 + 38/2 = 81%.

So who is PZ? Bozo's voting record is pretty solid town, as is Xorxes.

Flum, Balki and Bunny have varied voting so are possible candidates.

Given the fact that PZ was likely on my wagon my best estimate is:

Scum: kgray & Jamie PZ: Balki (could swap Jamie & Balki)

If I'm wrong then prob Flum (or to a lesser extent Xorxes or Bunny) = PZ and either Balki or Jamie are town (sorry).

As I have already told you Bozo will be the NK and we will be none the wiser. Hopefully I goad scum into killing someone else to ease our task.

Thank you and good night.

P.S. Do you think kgray can come up with a mirror analysis. Not a hope.

Added the emboldened bit.

[damo666]

In the above analysis I think I too readily discarded the chance that Bunny is PZ who thought the wagons were SvS so wanted a tie.

I have come up with the following probability table for players' alignment:

Scum PZ Town
kgray 100 0 0
Balki 50 34 16
Jamie 50 12 38
Bunny 0 34 66
Flum 0 15 85
Xorxes 0 5 95
Bozo 0 0 100
Damo 0 0 100
Check 200 100 500

Figures are %s. Apologies for crap formatting.

Assumptions:

TvS => kgray scum
both scum on me => either Balki or Jamie are scum
PZ 80% chance on me 20% on kgray
Bozo is town
Flum/Xorxes PZ split 3:1
Balki/Jamie/Bunny PZ split 3:1:3

This is how I think things will go:

N6 Bozo NKd Town 4-3 up

D7 kgray lynched (I think this will happen quite quickly, I won't explain why as I want scum to make an error but townsfolk consider that one of our team voted for me) - flips scum Town 4-2 up

N7 I am NKd - Town 3-2 up

D8 This is do or die day

I think the best strategy is to lynch Balki (Balki and Jamie must vote for each other regardless of alignment so lynching Balki will be possible).

Roughly 1/6 chance Balki is town, game over and scum have won.

If Balki flips scum (50%) then 3-1 up N8 say Xorxes NK so town 2-1 up, D9 lynch Bunny 34/(100-34) = say half chance PZ, half town so townvic 25%, scumvic 25%

If Balki flips PZ (34%) then D( lynch Jamie, game over town win.

So chance of scum win is roughly 1/6 + 1/4 = 5/12 and chance town win about 7/12.

SO town are odds on to win.

I think that's gonna be it from me but happy to take questions.

P.S. The subjective numbers can of course be tweaked but I don't think the core strategy would change. If Balki is town and we lose I hope he regrets his opening gambit.

[damo666]

*D( should be D9

[Fluminator]

I'm posting this now since I'll be doing some rl stuff all of tomorrow morning, and don't want to get distracted by the game during that.

Scum: Balki
Was a very loud supporter of the "only people on EMC wagon should get lynched" and that led town astray. If he is scum, then that's exactly what he'd do. The way to read Balki is to see if he pushes town towards loss or victory. This has ended up being textbook scum Balki. It just took a few mislynches to find out.
His play at mylo was really weak and lazy, and very uncharacteristic of him. Why has he suddenly gotten so much more reserved and uncontroversial? He was making no waves or doing anything that stood out, which just doesn't fit with town Balki. The town is at their last leg and Balki is just trying to coast through this final mislynch without sticking his head up.

He was way too careful at a very delicate point in the game. He is also not nearly paranoid enough about me and Xorx this game after the debacle with EMC voters.

Scum: Kgray
From my point of view, she's almost definitely scum because if she was town, scum would have been very likely to vote her. Her reaction to almost getting lynched today was kind of scummy as she seemed more concerned in voting to stay alive instead of appealing to town who she thought scum was. It also didn't feel like she thought the game was over if she got lynched. Her voting has been consistently on townies throughout the game. and most things I've seen so far would not be hard to fake as scum.

Patient Zero:
Xorx: I still think he's scum for all reasons given already. But I don't think he's a good lynch tomorrow since if he was he's more likely patient zero.
But keep in mind, it looked like the vote was going to be Kgray 4-3 (with Xorx keeping his vote off the major wagons as long as possible) until he finally voted Kgray. He got ninjad by Bunny inexplicably changing his vote keeping it a tie. He was essentially stuck on kgray after that, unless he attempted a last minute switch. But a last minute switch would be risky and they probably have it in the bag anyway.
Point is, if we find out kgray is scum, Xorx isn't cleared imo

Bunny Go: He could also be patient zero, not as strong a read. He's been flailing around, but some of his actions seem to be without too much regard for town, and he just doesn't care who is lynched in general. I don't really get him. His first reaction was to be upset at the tie when he was pushing for a no lynch? Idgi. If we're somehow in 3 player lylo, definitely consider him. I'm super irritated he thinks me trying to wagon scum reads throughout the day is scummy manipulation (while being content with players staying under the radar until eod to submit their vote). It could be my irritation with him is making me hope he's scum. I think Xorx is still a more likely patient z still.

Town:
Jamiet - I don't think townrage Jamiet was fake. I don't think scum Jamiet would care about my actions this game or find them super insufferable. Whenever he's scum he hides his distaste for me.

Damo: It seemed like town flailing to me. His frustration with the town today seemed legit. I find the wagon on him much much more sketchy. He just doesn't give a shit about what people think about him. Leading up to end of day he felt town-confused and flustered, trying to get as much out leading up to the lynch

Bozo: He really hasn't done anything all game that warrants suspicion to me. He could be patient zero I guess. I'll maybe look more into him if he's not nightkilled.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Flum - did you intentionally ignore my re-stated question about Damo, or are you pretending not to have read it, as a reaction test? Thanks.

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo I still want you to talk us through your voting yesterday. It looked scuzzy as fcuk at the time.

[damo666]

I'm posting this now since I'll be doing some rl stuff all of tomorrow morning, and don't want to get distracted by the game during that.

Scum: Balki
Was a very loud supporter of the "only people on EMC wagon should get lynched" and that led town astray. If he is scum, then that's exactly what he'd do. The way to read Balki is to see if he pushes town towards loss or victory. This has ended up being textbook scum Balki. It just took a few mislynches to find out.
His play at mylo was really weak and lazy, and very uncharacteristic of him. Why has he suddenly gotten so much more reserved and uncontroversial? He was making no waves or doing anything that stood out, which just doesn't fit with town Balki. The town is at their last leg and Balki is just trying to coast through this final mislynch without sticking his head up.

He was way too careful at a very delicate point in the game. He is also not nearly paranoid enough about me and Xorx this game after the debacle with EMC voters.

Scum: Kgray
From my point of view, she's almost definitely scum because if she was town, scum would have been very likely to vote her. Her reaction to almost getting lynched today was kind of scummy as she seemed more concerned in voting to stay alive instead of appealing to town who she thought scum was. It also didn't feel like she thought the game was over if she got lynched. Her voting has been consistently on townies throughout the game. and most things I've seen so far would not be hard to fake as scum.

Patient Zero:
Xorx: I still think he's scum for all reasons given already. But I don't think he's a good lynch tomorrow since if he was he's more likely patient zero.
But keep in mind, it looked like the vote was going to be Kgray 4-3 (with Xorx keeping his vote off the major wagons as long as possible) until he finally voted Kgray. He got ninjad by Bunny inexplicably changing his vote keeping it a tie. He was essentially stuck on kgray after that, unless he attempted a last minute switch. But a last minute switch would be risky and they probably have it in the bag anyway.
Point is, if we find out kgray is scum, Xorx isn't cleared imo

Bunny Go: He could also be patient zero, not as strong a read. He's been flailing around, but some of his actions seem to be without too much regard for town, and he just doesn't care who is lynched in general. I don't really get him. His first reaction was to be upset at the tie when he was pushing for a no lynch? Idgi. If we're somehow in 3 player lylo, definitely consider him. I'm super irritated he thinks me trying to wagon scum reads throughout the day is scummy manipulation (while being content with players staying under the radar until eod to submit their vote). It could be my irritation with him is making me hope he's scum. I think Xorx is still a more likely patient z still.

Town:
Jamiet - I don't think townrage Jamiet was fake. I don't think scum Jamiet would care about my actions this game or find them super insufferable. Whenever he's scum he hides his distaste for me.

Damo: It seemed like town flailing to me. His frustration with the town today seemed legit. I find the wagon on him much much more sketchy. He just doesn't give a shit about what people think about him. Leading up to end of day he felt town-confused and flustered, trying to get as much out leading up to the lynch

Bozo: He really hasn't done anything all game that warrants suspicion to me. He could be patient zero I guess. I'll maybe look more into him if he's not nightkilled.

VG post. Pretty sure Flum is town now.

[damo666]

Damo I still want you to talk us through your voting yesterday. It looked scuzzy as fcuk at the time.

From mpov given not 2 bussers on Bob either you or kgray had to be scum. Of the 2 I townread you more so I voted you first as a quasi reaction test.

My switch to Flum was because I thought Flum* had been being odd and I wanted to see what would happen. I never intended to stay there. My third vote (still quite early) was on who I need considered highly likely scum, viz kgray. I don't think this voting pattern is particularly 'scuzzy'.

* I now townread Flum

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo I still want you to talk us through your voting yesterday. It looked scuzzy as fcuk at the time.

From mpov given not 2 bussers on Bob either you or kgray had to be scum. Of the 2 I townread you more so I voted you first as a quasi reaction test.

My switch to Flum was because I thought Flum* had been being odd and I wanted to see what would happen. I never intended to stay there. My third vote (still quite early) was on who I need considered highly likely scum, viz kgray. I don't think this voting pattern is particularly 'scuzzy'.

* I now townread Flum

Naked voting is always scuzzy. It was your lack of explanation or narrative that made you look shit.