M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[BunnyGo]

lol, looking at the brightside, this was better than voting no lynch in the end.

no...no it wasn't. That was the scummiest possible end to the day.

You're crazy if you disagree.... hmmm

I don't think ANYONE has ever suggested that I was sane.

[kgray]

As much as I was townreading Kgray….

That could have been a S v S end to the day.

If it was T v T, scum would surely have jumped to ensure someone got lynched, thus ensuring their win.

If it was T v S, scum would jump to save their buddy.

If it's S v S, keeping a tie is the best outcome for scum in that scenario.

Thoughts?

This ^

There's no way it was T v T. So our goal for tonight is figure out if it was S v S or S v T. In the S v T case, then ALL the scum were voting on the town (or could have jumped to win).

Before you go farther down that train of thought, can you explain why there's no way it was T vs T?

[BunnyGo]

Wait, how so?

Why didn't scum swap teams? Either:

1) It was S v S
or more likely
2) We had S v T and one of the town needs to change. But hard to know which on.

I guess the plus side, in case 2 it means one wagon was 3 scum 1 town and the other wagon was 4 town.

Not case 1

It could be TvT

How would it be T v T?

[bozotheclown]

Here is BunnyGo's vote progression from kgray to damo in a span of 4 minutes:

Fine, ##VOTE Kgray.

Fine, ##VOTE Kgray.

Why? Just Bozo's weak "case" ?

If you haven't read my many posts on kgray, then I'm not repeating them here for you.

OK, just finished rereading my own previous rereads on damo. I don't know how I forgot all that. Fine kgray, hat tip to you if you're scum. ##vote Damo

[Fluminator]

There's a slight possiblity that scum didn't want to risk switching. I considered preparing a Damo vote in case I saw someone switched to kgray last second, so it's not guaranteed to work.

[BunnyGo]

As much as I was townreading Kgray….

That could have been a S v S end to the day.

If it was T v T, scum would surely have jumped to ensure someone got lynched, thus ensuring their win.

If it was T v S, scum would jump to save their buddy.

If it's S v S, keeping a tie is the best outcome for scum in that scenario.

Thoughts?

This ^

There's no way it was T v T. So our goal for tonight is figure out if it was S v S or S v T. In the S v T case, then ALL the scum were voting on the town (or could have jumped to win).

Before you go farther down that train of thought, can you explain why there's no way it was T vs T?

OK...2 scum know that it was T v T (assuming it was). Either of them could have moved in the last 10 minutes, or last 1 minute. End of game.

[damo666]

Balki, Jamie and Bunny are town

Idiot

It could have been TvT with 2 scum on one and PZ the other.

If it was TvT one of the scum could have changed their vote and won.

If they were online EOD yeah I suppose. It didn't become 4-4 till relatively late.

Of course if it wasn't TvT kgray is scum. kgray with two of my voters works as does kgray , 1 other and Flum as PZ.

But I'm pretty sure there was 2 scum on me and PZ on Kgray. Best possible explanation of 4-4.

[BunnyGo]

There's a slight possiblity that scum didn't want to risk switching. I considered preparing a Damo vote in case I saw someone switched to kgray last second, so it's not guaranteed to work.

OK...because you scumread both? Townread both? Just wanted to ensure the tie at the end? Or because a movement to kgray HAD to be scum?

[xorxes]

As much as I was townreading Kgray….

That could have been a S v S end to the day.

If it was T v T, scum would surely have jumped to ensure someone got lynched, thus ensuring their win.

If it was T v S, scum would jump to save their buddy.

If it's S v S, keeping a tie is the best outcome for scum in that scenario.

Thoughts?

It could have been TvS and the two scum that know were already voting T.

[BunnyGo]

OK, this is interesting, I'll admit. But it's not encouraging. I'm back to kids, but will be on later with actual thoughts and not gut spewing.

[damo666]

As much as I was townreading Kgray….

That could have been a S v S end to the day.

If it was T v T, scum would surely have jumped to ensure someone got lynched, thus ensuring their win.

If it was T v S, scum would jump to save their buddy.

If it's S v S, keeping a tie is the best outcome for scum in that scenario.

Thoughts?

like Bunny?

[kgray]

This ^

There's no way it was T v T. So our goal for tonight is figure out if it was S v S or S v T. In the S v T case, then ALL the scum were voting on the town (or could have jumped to win).

Before you go farther down that train of thought, can you explain why there's no way it was T vs T?

OK...2 scum know that it was T v T (assuming it was). Either of them could have moved in the last 10 minutes, or last 1 minute. End of game.

Yes, I agree. I think it is extremely probable that it was T v S for several reasons. I just wanted to clarify that you also think it's extremely probable, and not guaranteed. Assuming things are 100% true is dangerous.

[Fluminator]

There's a slight possiblity that scum didn't want to risk switching. I considered preparing a Damo vote in case I saw someone switched to kgray last second, so it's not guaranteed to work.

OK...because you scumread both? Townread both? Just wanted to ensure the tie at the end? Or because a movement to kgray HAD to be scum?

Do you even read anything I say? I've been very vocal all day kgray was a scumread and damo was a town read.

But any sudden last second vote switches would be scum securing a lynch on town at that point. If someone jumped to kgray at that point, it would be to mislynch her.

[BunnyGo]

There's a slight possiblity that scum didn't want to risk switching. I considered preparing a Damo vote in case I saw someone switched to kgray last second, so it's not guaranteed to work.

OK...because you scumread both? Townread both? Just wanted to ensure the tie at the end? Or because a movement to kgray HAD to be scum?

Do you even read anything I say? I've been very vocal all day kgray was a scumread and damo was a town read.

But any sudden last second vote switches would be scum securing a lynch on town at that point. If someone jumped to kgray at that point, it would be to mislynch her.

Yes...I read everything your write (and now that Fox is gone, I don't even confuse the F names). I know damo was your strong town read. but I just wanted to know what you are thinking.

What does the fact nobody switched either way say to you?

[Fluminator]

Damo, can you please post your explanations to your reads at this point? Or is it like your gimmick to not say anything super useful?

[Fluminator]

OK...because you scumread both? Townread both? Just wanted to ensure the tie at the end? Or because a movement to kgray HAD to be scum?

Do you even read anything I say? I've been very vocal all day kgray was a scumread and damo was a town read.

But any sudden last second vote switches would be scum securing a lynch on town at that point. If someone jumped to kgray at that point, it would be to mislynch her.

Yes...I read everything your write (and now that Fox is gone, I don't even confuse the F names). I know damo was your strong town read. but I just wanted to know what you are thinking.

What does the fact nobody switched either way say to you?

The only thing that's got me confused right now is xorx not switching to damo.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Rather than trying to rule out blanket categories of wagons (e.g., TvS, TvT, Etc.), I think it would be a good idea to try to rule out scum pairs. I think that there are a lot of pairs that are at least extremely unlikely now. I think we should focus on that. And everyone should present a bunch of super cogent and brilliant thoughts about it.

[damo666]

Damo, can you please post your explanations to your reads at this point? Or is it like your gimmick to not say anything super useful?

I'll do my best. By EON.

but for now:

assuming this wasn't TvT then kgray must be scum

either along with Bunny (his late switch) with PZ being any of Balki/Jamie /Flum/Xorxes/bozo

or with Balki or Jamie with Bunny as floundering PZ

[Fluminator]

Ok, bunny might be patient zero after all. His stream of conscious really does make him seem clueless, trying to figure the game out. But that all doesn't matter if he's patient zero in retrospect.

But if I'm correct in Kgray being scum and Damo being town, xorx is really the only option for patient zero as well.

Either way, I still hold to the belief that we should be lynching for the scumbuddies in the know, and save patient zero for last.

[Balki Bartokomous]

But if I'm correct in Kgray being scum and Damo being town, xorx is really the only option for patient zero as well.

How can you limit Patient Zero like this? Are you assuming Patient Zero knows who their partners are?