M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Fluminator]

I do remember someone saying hypocrisy is Chaqa's meta or something, but this sucks. Vecna was already a bad vote, at least on Day 2. He had stated in multiple posts earlier that he was not going to hammer, but as soon as Flum hammered, Chaqa placed a hammer too. It seems opportunistic. Although perhaps too opportunistic. On second thoughts, it seems almost too scummy to be scum. But double bluffs? I dunno. On the one hand I don't like how quickly he flipped, but the flip was so quick I doubt scum would have done it because it was too fast. But they'd have cover because why would scum do something so scummy. Maybe NAI? emc wagon is bad, I don't want to lynch emc. Maybe we can start a bozo wagon or something? I'm gonna sit my vote here for the moment, in case I don't get back to it. I'll get onto reading Sulit later after I have lunch, but I may not post again for a while.

Why bozo?

[Fluminator]

I mean, it's a pretty weak interaction tbf.

[BunnyGo]

I mean, it's a pretty weak interaction tbf.

Ah, interesting. My search was for

Sul* || Bob*

[Balki Bartokomous]

Re lynch vs. No lynch

I am beginning to feel like the NK flip is not going to be particularly illuminating. There are a couple of people who I am pretty hard townreading right now, and if either one flips, it's just not going to help me much.

And so, I'd rather vote now, when we have more townies, than vote tomorrow, when we have one less. And I'd rather maximize the chance that Patient Zero is in the dark.

[damo666]

These three damo posts stand out on reread. Both for what they literally say, and for the interaction with Flum.

This end voting is a mistake given the vote distribution is not considered. It is too easily manipulated by scum.

Anybody not unending I will consider to be a scum.

Happy to vote any of the lurkers.

How about this for a theory?

There is always an example of busing on day 1.

Top 3 wagons were TvTvT ( worcej the only unknown but widely townread).

Xorxes never busses.

Hence EMC and Flum are a scumpair.

Voila!

If scum want to show themselves this way, let them.

Also, the whole "if you don't do this, you are scum" is... just not a good play. Either you don't mean it, or you're just announcing the rubric for scum to play by.

Ok fair point.

##end

I think it's actually fairly towny that damo gets talked into it.

1) He says something about Xorxes bussing, before the Bob wagon. I don't know whether to think that means Xorxes decided to bus (since Damo said this), or never busses. Thoughts Damo?
2) He calls out EMC/Flum scumpair. He was wrong about EMC, but I wonder if this influenced putative scum!Flum. Will keep in mind when checking Flum's interactions with EMC.

Yes, maybe my observation prompted nonPZscumXorxes to later bus Bob. Doubt it though.

However your post makes me realise that there was actually ZERO bussing day 1. I think this increases the likelihood of there having been bussing on Bob D3. (We'd better start bussing lads)

[Fluminator]

hmmmmmm

[Fluminator]

We've had almost no scum wagons for bussing to happen.

If Xorx and Kgray are town, then literally every wagon was on town all game outside of the late Bob vote.

I'm really thinking we should trust all the confirmed townies on Xorx.

[Fluminator]

hmmmmmm

This was to Balki's post wanting a lynch btw

[Fluminator]

@Xorx, @Kgray
lynch vs. no lynch is 3 vs. 3
What's your opinions

[BunnyGo]

I find it hard to believe that, even if you were initially confused about what Vecna meant, you didn't figure it out in the time it took you to post 2 additional messages asking for clarification - especially after Vecna did clarify. And I found your claim that you thought Vecna was referring to a geographical coastline even less likely.

If you're town, maybe you're just trying to start conversation - which worked. If mafia, I guess you'd be trying to paint a target on Vecna - unless you're both mafia, and you're trying to distance yourself from your teammate. But I have no idea which scenario I find more likely.

ewwwww

This is townie points for kgray.

Interesting. Was just looking for possible Xorxes/kgray scum team and found that Xorxes has pointed out the Sulit implications about kgray previously...

[damo666]

I am up to page 122.

##vote Damo

I don't feel great about it, but it's where I am right now. Mostly process of elimination. Six EMC voters on Day 3:

rdrivera Foxcastle Chaqa Jamiet Damo kgray

I am townreading Jamiet for picking fights, running upstream, and for sulit's interaction with him.

I've got a townlean on kgray because she seems like she's trying to solve.

Argh...could scum have just given up on Bob due to low activity and decided to bus? Yes.

I am getting nervous about Flum and Xorx. Doesn't feel like they think they are about to lose if we don't get this right.

For the record, I disagree strongly on kgray. She's continued her "ask questions that seem probing" methodology. It's easy to hide as scum like that. It's like the pretentious college student who always plays "devils advocate" and thinks their a genius because of it. She's not solving, she's asking devils advocate questions to seem like she's solving. Reread her with that light...

I also (for the record yet again) STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH LYNCHING!!! STOP IT or explain *clearly* why you think town needs to take a stand today. One where we're all in, and not going to let scum talk us into lynching town or out of lynching scum.

Ok. If we no lynch scum will NK Bozo who will flip town and we are none (or very little) the wiser. (Of course this implicitly assumes that I'd we do lynch today it wont be Bozo - which it won't).

Bozo of course is my blindingly obvious townsperson.

[BunnyGo]

We've had almost no scum wagons for bussing to happen.

If Xorx and Kgray are town, then literally every wagon was on town all game outside of the late Bob vote.

I'm really thinking we should trust all the confirmed townies on Xorx.

It's true that a scum team without Xorxes would be happy to finish the push on him, but there are reasons this would be false. It's a notch in the Xorxes wagon, but not enough on its own.

Still looking at the kgray/xorxes scum team possibility.

[BunnyGo]

I am up to page 122.

##vote Damo

I don't feel great about it, but it's where I am right now. Mostly process of elimination. Six EMC voters on Day 3:

rdrivera Foxcastle Chaqa Jamiet Damo kgray

I am townreading Jamiet for picking fights, running upstream, and for sulit's interaction with him.

I've got a townlean on kgray because she seems like she's trying to solve.

Argh...could scum have just given up on Bob due to low activity and decided to bus? Yes.

I am getting nervous about Flum and Xorx. Doesn't feel like they think they are about to lose if we don't get this right.

For the record, I disagree strongly on kgray. She's continued her "ask questions that seem probing" methodology. It's easy to hide as scum like that. It's like the pretentious college student who always plays "devils advocate" and thinks their a genius because of it. She's not solving, she's asking devils advocate questions to seem like she's solving. Reread her with that light...

I also (for the record yet again) STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH LYNCHING!!! STOP IT or explain *clearly* why you think town needs to take a stand today. One where we're all in, and not going to let scum talk us into lynching town or out of lynching scum.

Ok. If we no lynch scum will NK Bozo who will flip town and we are none (or very little) the wiser. (Of course this implicitly assumes that I'd we do lynch today it wont be Bozo - which it won't).

Bozo of course is my blindingly obvious townsperson.

So you're saying we should vote when we have bozo around to help?

[Fluminator]

I didn't bring it up originally because it's getting too speculative, but I do suspect that if Xorx and kgray are scumbuddies, xorx coached kgray to have more gutreads, since she didn't start talking about them until night 3 I think.

[BunnyGo]

I don't think Chaqa is scum, and since he was my prime suspect before the bob lynch, I need new suspects. Looking back at the day 3 votes knowing Bob was scum seemed the best place to start. Most of this has already been brought up and thoroughly discussed, but here's my take on it.

• In the moment, it did look like Bunny was avoiding voting for Chaqa, and I thought he could have been trying to save him. But, now that we know bob was scum, I don't know why scum-Bunny would stay on bob the way he did. Bozo's questioning of Bunny at the time gave Bunny plenty of excuses to leave bob's wagon and get back on Chaqa. Bozo now claims that Bunny was busing bob because it looked very likely that bob would be lynched, but the last time Bunny changed his vote he could have voted for Chaqa and made it a 3-way tie. Instead he put bob in the lead. I think this makes Bunny likely town - unless Chaqa is scum.

• The purpose of busing is to get town credit for lynching your teammate, right? So I'm looking for people who could be trying to capitalize off of that. The person that seems most likely to be playing this angle is Balki. He's been pretty strongly emphasizing the "scum wouldn't want a scum lynch" narrative. I mean, this makes sense, and I can definitely understand why town-Balki would do that, but this seems pretty extreme. Although, he's being so heavy-handed with it and I'd expect him to be more subtle as scum....

• Fox voting for bob to "make the votes closer" could be a towny thing to do, but it also doesn't really commit him to voting for bob, and he moves off onto emc. Worcej talks about this more in this post and I think it's a convincing argument. And I agree with what many people have been previously discussing in detail: Fox's voting seems scummy.

• Originally I though rdr helping to start bob's wagon was towny, but that was pretty early during the day when there was plenty of time for someone else to become a wagon. And, rdr didn't even put bob in the lead at that point, and as soon as bob was in the lead rdr changed his vote. He did provide reasonable explanations for his votes when he switched them. I think rdr is capable of doing this as scum, though, and I think rdr jumped off of bob as soon as he had a reason to, and then found reasons not to get back on bob's wagon. I think rdr's votes are scummy.

I want to move kgray more towards town after this.

rivera pretty much had to vote for Bob when I voted for him after he said he would join. If he had not voted for Bob then, that would have really looked bad.

Not only is this an interesting statement from Xorxes. It's even more so, because the kgray post is one of her few "statements" after being pushed, and reads like so much shit. Every scum read in it has been shown to be wrong, and she's walked back her town read on me every chance she gets.

[damo666]

For the record, I disagree strongly on kgray. She's continued her "ask questions that seem probing" methodology. It's easy to hide as scum like that. It's like the pretentious college student who always plays "devils advocate" and thinks their a genius because of it. She's not solving, she's asking devils advocate questions to seem like she's solving. Reread her with that light...

I also (for the record yet again) STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH LYNCHING!!! STOP IT or explain *clearly* why you think town needs to take a stand today. One where we're all in, and not going to let scum talk us into lynching town or out of lynching scum.

Ok. If we no lynch scum will NK Bozo who will flip town and we are none (or very little) the wiser. (Of course this implicitly assumes that I'd we do lynch today it wont be Bozo - which it won't).

Bozo of course is my blindingly obvious townsperson.

So you're saying we should vote when we have bozo around to help?

No. I'm saying we will have lost an opportunity to lynch in return for no new information (imo).

But yes, Bozo is helpful.

[BunnyGo]

To be clear: I agree with Flum's statement about coaching. I'm going to be checking kgray/xorxes, kgray/Balki (hell...I even remember some blatant pocketing...maybe too blatant?), and kgray/Flum.

[damo666]

##vote kgray

[Fluminator]

It would be nice to firmly decide if we were no lynching or lynching before we get the major wagons of the day going.

[BunnyGo]

Yes, I agree. I think it would be incredible if they were all scum.

So, if Balki, Flum and xorxes are so good at this game, and they're not all scum, why are they all on roughly the same page right now?

I don't understand your question.

Sorry, I will try to explain.

My point is, it makes sense to lynch on the emc wagon. Certain people on that wagon look very scummy because of the way they voted to end up there. That is my opinion, at least. And it seems to also be the opinion of Flum, Balki and xorxes, who are apparently very good at this game.

I'm willing to accept the argument that one of them might be scum. But you think the other two, who are likely town (in your words) and who are also good at this game, are wrong about the scumminess of the D3 emc wagon?

If you think I'm the scummiest of the emc wagon, then please do keep voting for me. But I think your argument is simultaneously putting Balk/Flum/xorxes on a pedestal and also ignoring their reads. It doesn't make sense to me.

This post (and the ones in our conversation leading up to it) seem weird. Like she's trying to deny that one of these three are scum. Willfully ignoring that scum should kill "good town" while simultaneously saying "so they must be good town and don't ignore them". Like she isn't thinking what town should be concluding from scum NKs.