M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Fluminator]

I kind of feel like I'm in a movie, where I'm a sherrif and there's 4 guys yelling at me to kill xorx. I arrest them and execute them, and then I turn around and notice xorx with an evil glint in his eye and I'm like "uhhhh, xorx? I didn't make a terrible mistake, did I?"
and he just shrugs as he inches closer.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Shouldn't Xorxes solve the game today?

Ya know, I was just reading your ISO and I found this in your EON 2 reads list:

“xorxes - I'd wait a day, and if he is not NKed tonight or tomorrow, serious scrutiny. Hasn't done much solving in my view. But...in his defense, nobody is playing so it's hard."

Did you ever put any serious scrutiny into xorxes? Do you think he started doing much solving?

I really have not applied serious scrutiny there. I have been very much sidetracked, focusing on the D3 EMC voters. Also, because Fox and rdrivera were pushing a case on Xorxes, that made me push him townward too. Obviously, that should not carry weight now. The Day 4 Xorxes wagon was town-driven.

I am on page 76 of my re-read. Xorx could be scum. I'm not really seeing much effort or interest from him, and that may very well be a scumtell.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Re: Jamie and sulit, Jamie did an ISO of sulit/bob here and brought up sulit's reaction to one of my posts:

"- On p.27, Sulit called out a post by kgray, which discussed Balki and Vecna arguing about the word "coast" from back on page 5, with an "ewwwww" response and "NAGL for kgray". (I have read the post again, and I encourage others to, and I cannot for the life of me understand why Sulit had such a negative reaction to it)."

I also do not know why sulit reacted that way, but knowing sulit was scum I am using this point by Jamie to tentatively rule out nonPZ-Jamie and Balki as scum partners. I don't know if sulit's reaction is enough to give scum points to Balki, but I don't see scum-Jamie bringing attention to it if Balki is his scum partner.

I saw that too. Made me push you just a bit in the town direction.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I feel like kgray is trying to solve a puzzle today. I am very unlikely to vote to lynch her.

Still only about one-third through re-read, but my top scum candidate is Damo.

[Fluminator]

She's doing a lot of investigation for sure.
I look forward to seeing what it comes to.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I just re-read EOD2. It occurs to me, we were a long way off from lynching scum on that day. The leading candidates being discussed were EMC, Vecna, Bo. I think that scum were feeling very comfortable at that time. Under those circumstances, I would not expect scum to stick their neck out. They didn't feel a deep need to hammer Vecna. The day was not a risky day for them.

I think, based on this context, Xorxes and Flum are more likely town. They were two of the people who were quite active around the final hammer.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Xorxes, Kgray, Balki... Why haven't you voted yet?

I'm waiting for emc to show up, I will vote for him or Chaqa.

I'm assuming pjandy will be subbed. If not, I might vote for him as well depending on how convincing his excuses sound.

I don't really want to start a wagon on Balki or rivera at this point because I'm too unsure about them.

I suppose I could vote for Bob if a wagon forms as well. His vote for me was ridiculous since he didn't even read what happened. "Too scummy to be scum" is the only saving grace, but that only buys him a wait and see.

The rest I don't think I'm inclined to vote for.

This post from Xorxes from right before he voted Bob Day 3 sounds so towny to me. It just sounds like my own stream of consciousness.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Flum
@Xorx

It's MYLO. Obvtown please.

[BunnyGo]

OK, finally found a few minutes to write up some analysis. Wanted to start by going through BobMcSulit's posts.

Summary: Sulit interacted mostly with me and jamie. But did have a post "eeewwwww NAGL for kgray" (technically 2 posts). With me, I called him out as one of the lurkers, and he taunted me. With Jamie, jamie had listed him as one of his town reads. Sulit responded by saying bo_sox was spicy, and listed him and Jamie in his town reads. Jamie is the last of his town reads alive (so far all were correct).

Bob got peppered by me and Flum when he showed up about Sulit. Argues with Jamie about being active enough. Votes Chaq. One post stands out:

You can often get a good read on new replacements asking them to read who they're replacing. You'd be surprised how often scum replacements view their predecessor as kind of scummy. (Which makes sense since they know they are)

You passed the test well enough I suppose.

Either Flum is town or Bob and Flum both scum

So if flum's scum than I'm scum too? Explain? I could see this as scum!flum trying to get me to seem scummy and then going for a mislynch. I don't think that's what it is, but it's still possible.

Several things in it:

1) Flum exonerates Bob for posting a nothing summary of Sulit
2) Damo calls Flum on it
3) Bob gets indignant about being lumped with Flum.

[BunnyGo]

Catching up on the rest of today, I'm really disappointed in town. We have 4 wagons, at least one is wrong (and I'd be amazed if only 1 is wrong). Balki is posting stuff, I need to go double check the context of it all. Damo is digging and posting his usual cryptic minimal. Kgray is continuing to just ask logic questions.

All that said...WHY ARE WE GIVING SCUM THE CHANCE TO F*#& WITH US?!

Is there a compelling reason we're gambling on mylo when yesterday everyone said "let's go for lylo"?

Ok...back to rereading day 2...

[Fluminator]

Me, you, and Jamiet have all said they want a no lynch.
Bozo and damo want a lynch.

Balki, Xorx, and kdray are all not really giving an opinion.

[Fluminator]

*kgray
lol

[Balki Bartokomous]

I am up to page 122.

##vote Damo

I don't feel great about it, but it's where I am right now. Mostly process of elimination. Six EMC voters on Day 3:

rdrivera Foxcastle Chaqa Jamiet Damo kgray

I am townreading Jamiet for picking fights, running upstream, and for sulit's interaction with him.

I've got a townlean on kgray because she seems like she's trying to solve.

Argh...could scum have just given up on Bob due to low activity and decided to bus? Yes.

I am getting nervous about Flum and Xorx. Doesn't feel like they think they are about to lose if we don't get this right.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I gotta go do some other stuff. I'm hoping for some new content from townies. It's game time.

[BunnyGo]

These three damo posts stand out on reread. Both for what they literally say, and for the interaction with Flum.

This end voting is a mistake given the vote distribution is not considered. It is too easily manipulated by scum.

Anybody not unending I will consider to be a scum.

Happy to vote any of the lurkers.

How about this for a theory?

There is always an example of busing on day 1.

Top 3 wagons were TvTvT ( worcej the only unknown but widely townread).

Xorxes never busses.

Hence EMC and Flum are a scumpair.

Voila!

This end voting is a mistake given the vote distribution is not considered. It is too easily manipulated by scum.

Anybody not unending I will consider to be a scum.

Happy to vote any of the lurkers.

If scum want to show themselves this way, let them.

Also, the whole "if you don't do this, you are scum" is... just not a good play. Either you don't mean it, or you're just announcing the rubric for scum to play by.

Ok fair point.

##end

I think it's actually fairly towny that damo gets talked into it.

1) He says something about Xorxes bussing, before the Bob wagon. I don't know whether to think that means Xorxes decided to bus (since Damo said this), or never busses. Thoughts Damo?
2) He calls out EMC/Flum scumpair. He was wrong about EMC, but I wonder if this influenced putative scum!Flum. Will keep in mind when checking Flum's interactions with EMC.

[BunnyGo]

I am up to page 122.

##vote Damo

I don't feel great about it, but it's where I am right now. Mostly process of elimination. Six EMC voters on Day 3:

rdrivera Foxcastle Chaqa Jamiet Damo kgray

I am townreading Jamiet for picking fights, running upstream, and for sulit's interaction with him.

I've got a townlean on kgray because she seems like she's trying to solve.

Argh...could scum have just given up on Bob due to low activity and decided to bus? Yes.

I am getting nervous about Flum and Xorx. Doesn't feel like they think they are about to lose if we don't get this right.

For the record, I disagree strongly on kgray. She's continued her "ask questions that seem probing" methodology. It's easy to hide as scum like that. It's like the pretentious college student who always plays "devils advocate" and thinks their a genius because of it. She's not solving, she's asking devils advocate questions to seem like she's solving. Reread her with that light...

I also (for the record yet again) STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH LYNCHING!!! STOP IT or explain *clearly* why you think town needs to take a stand today. One where we're all in, and not going to let scum talk us into lynching town or out of lynching scum.

[BunnyGo]

Another notch in the Sulit reread: kgray never once mentioned the word "sulit" or "Bob" before they were lynched. This reeks of noob scum distancing.


OOOOOOOH!!! This is INTERESTING!

OK, I can confirm the following:

1) Rdr never wrote a word starting with "sul" or "bob" until:

I'm waiting for emc to show up, I will vote for him or Chaqa.

I'm assuming pjandy will be subbed. If not, I might vote for him as well depending on how convincing his excuses sound.

I don't really want to start a wagon on Balki or rivera at this point because I'm too unsure about them.

I suppose I could vote for Bob if a wagon forms as well. His vote for me was ridiculous since he didn't even read what happened. "Too scummy to be scum" is the only saving grace, but that only buys him a wait and see.

The rest I don't think I'm inclined to vote for.

I can join a wagon on Bob. I know we shouldn't try to outguess the GMs but I can't avoid thinking that if Sulit was town we will just have a modkill.

I can also confirm that EMC said neither of their names ever (not too surprising given how involved he is).

I can confirm that Fox first mentioned either name on Day 3 as part of a vote summary. And didn't mention either outside of that or a quote until Day 4.

I have not confirmed that everyone else DID interact. I'm tired.

Flum claimed that the only 3 that was true for were EMC, Fox, and rdr. BUT it was also true for kgray! Was Flum covering?

[Fluminator]

@Flum
@Xorx

It's MYLO. Obvtown please.

I'm waiting for others to post their reads before I go too in depth. I also am quite sure we want to no lynch today anyway.
I take it you're in the "lynch somebody today" camp?

[BunnyGo]

Here are the two Flum posts in question:

Although Bob/sulit's iso was pretty sparse, I looked at every other player's ISO in their engagement with Bob, and interestingly, almost every player directly engaged with or asked Bob a question except for 3 people.

Fox, Rdrivera, and EMC.

It's not a slam dunk, but usually it's what people don't do with their partners that is more telling than what they do do.
The fact it overlaps with the people who had sketchy eod voting is interesting.

Bunny Buddy, I'll look at Balki more closely tomorrow with you if we myslynch today.

For now, can you confirm for everyone that everyone in this town tried engaging with Bob/Sulit except for Rdrivera, Fox, and EMC. You mentioned you wanted to.

(This is also why I always crusade against lurkers at the beginning. Active players reveal things like this better)

[BunnyGo]

@Flum
@Xorx

It's MYLO. Obvtown please.

I'm waiting for others to post their reads before I go too in depth. I also am quite sure we want to no lynch today anyway.
I take it you're in the "lynch somebody today" camp?

Care to comment Flum?