M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Jamiet99uk]

@BunnyGo: I'm trying to find where you made a full case on Kgray. I can't find one. I just see you doing a lot of cheerleading for Bozo's case and generally making a lot of noise.

[BunnyGo]

@BunnyGo: I'm trying to find where you made a full case on Kgray. I can't find one. I just see you doing a lot of cheerleading for Bozo's case and generally making a lot of noise.

I never made a single post with a case. In my conversation with kgray explaining why I townread rdr, I pointed out why I scumread her instead.

[BunnyGo]

@BunnyGo: I'm trying to find where you made a full case on Kgray. I can't find one. I just see you doing a lot of cheerleading for Bozo's case and generally making a lot of noise.

I never made a single post with a case. In my conversation with kgray explaining why I townread rdr, I pointed out why I scumread her instead.

This was shortly before Bozo made his long case. So I didn't follow up with more.

[Balki Bartokomous]

For people who say that Fox has appeared Towny in his exchange with me, can you please explain why?

What do you expect from Scum!Fox there? He is a good player. Is it that you don’t think he has the capacity to fake that argument with me? Or something else?

The things that have struck me from his play lately are the following:

(1) He is focused almost entirely on people who voted to lynch scum on Day 3. With very little discussion of why it makes sense that Scumteam Balki/Xorx bussed their teammate on Day 3.
(2) He hasn’t explained why he wanted EMC dead on Day 3 when he was up for a lynch against scum, but then changed his mind the next day when EMC’s flip would reveal whether the Day 3 wagons were TvS.
(3) He hasn’t seemed to change his views at all after learning that Day 3 was Town v Scum. This is very odd. You would expect a Townie who was scum reading Balki and Xorx to be pretty darn surprised at the EMC flip, and to realize that it doesn’t make sense to scumread Balki and Xorx together anymore.

The progression you would expect from a Townie is exactly what we’ve seen from kgray.

Don’t lynch kgray. Her progression looks very Town. Lynch Fox. He has no progression.

[Jamiet99uk]

@BunnyGo: I'm trying to find where you made a full case on Kgray. I can't find one. I just see you doing a lot of cheerleading for Bozo's case and generally making a lot of noise.

I never made a single post with a case. In my conversation with kgray explaining why I townread rdr, I pointed out why I scumread her instead.

Could you refer me to that post?

[kgray]

I don't like the no-lynch option. I still think Watcher is the weakest PR we could have and putting all our faith on him isn't a good choice. A lynch beside the chance of hitting scum also gives info, and Watcher still have at least two chances if he can stay alive. I understand Fox POV of a no-lynch being better then being myslynched if he is town, so I don't think it's scummy to suggest this

This said it's hard to choose between Fox and kgray. Fox votes looks scummier but his tone and his exchange with Balki seems town.
Kgray vote isn't great but he presents really solid arguments to justify v them. But her tone and reactions seems almost too controlled, too focused on logic.
My first option to vote today is still Xorxes, but if I have to choose right now, with no re-reading and no new info I will probably choose Fox.

Do you think it's scummy to try to look at the game logically?

[BunnyGo]

Dumb Bunny really doesn't understand the Rdr votes. Can you spell it out for me clearly without making me hunt through the thread for some previously stated argument across 4 posts and 2 days? You seem a good explainer when you want to.

The couple times I've looked, I've come up thinking he looks townier than the other D3EMC voters.

What are you looking at when you say this? His ISO overall or the D3 votes?

Among the D3 EMC voters, his ISO doesn't seem so bad. He wasn't bad on D2 unlike many (yes he voted end, but like me wasn't around to stop the foolishness later).

I see his day 3 movement as townie. He challenges Xorxes somewhat coherently (especially over the Vecna debacle). He is thinking about you. He is thinking about Bob. He is stuck between Bob and EMC. It was a tough call with 2 lurkers. I see this as working confused town!rdr.

YOU on the other hand (for comparison of a D3 EMC voter) zero in on Chaq and EMC and push hard for anyone but your scumread of Bob. So you couldn't be wrong. But you could try to push things onto the 2 town wagons. Your votes don't jump as much, but I don't care. His logic was sounder, and less manipulative.

Doing this comparison not just with votes, but seeing how people think is the key. Your thoughts seemed forced "I scum read Bob, but never gonna vote for him" (paraphrased), his seemed searching and confused and hunting.

YOU on the other hand (for comparison of a D3 EMC voter) zero in on Chaq and EMC and push hard for anyone but your scumread of Bob. So you couldn't be wrong. But you could try to push things onto the 2 town wagons. Your votes don't jump as much, but I don't care. His logic was sounder, and less manipulative.

Can you expand on this more please? Where do you see me pushing for "anyone but my scumread of Bob"? At the time I did scumread Bob, but I had a stronger scumread of emc and Chaqa. I never pushed for anyone besides my scumreads.

And I absolutely was wrong. I voted to lynch town over scum. That's as wrong as it gets.

Yes. That's my point. You get to now say "Oh look! I scum read a scum! Woo hoo!" but at the same time you got to protect him with big posts that spent a lot of time explaining why you scum read EMC and Chaq and then short comments "Oh, I scum read Bob, but"

It didn't seem like you were challenging your assumptions or your positions, or had any doubt. It seems (in retrospect) like you *knew* Bob was scum. Like you were distancing yourself so you could say "look, I called it!" but you got to say it quietly while attacking two likely town lynches.

And unless I've missed something major in your ISO (which is not unlikely) you've taken very few stands. Mostly you ask good smart noob questions. So the fact that the big stand you took was there, it looks bad.

I hope this answers your question why rdr's voting pattern doesn't matter to me as much in a scum read of someone voting for EMC on d3.

[kgray]

##vote kgray

cats, pigeons

Just to tie the wagons? .

##unvote

Yeah, see what happens.

Gonna vote either F or k

Every time someone uses this "let's see what happens" justification for their vote I like it less. Damo, are Fox and I your top two scumreads? I don't think now is the time to be voting for anyone who is not very high up on your scum list. We have only one mislynch left.

[bozotheclown]

To be honest I was probably influenced somewhat by all the pressure emc and Chaqa were getting. I'm trying not to let other people's reads influence my own too much, but I can't avoid that completely.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Do you think it's scummy to try to look at the game logically?

Seems to be the way things go around here.

@Town, please lynch Fox or rdrivera today. Their change from wanting to lynch EMC on D3 with ScumBob on the line, and then NOT wanting to lynch EMC the next day when it would reveal that they were on the town wagon in the TvS D3 is about as solid hard evidence that you’re going to get absent a PR result.

Chaqam’s Razor

[bozotheclown]

Sorry, I was trying to put that quote in a post.

[bozotheclown]

What I find interesting about this post is that it occurred after emc and Chaqa were already wagons D3, but she had not previously indicated that Chaqa and emc were her top scum reads. She questioned Chaqa a little earlier D3, but Chaqa was already a wagon then as well, and she hardly mentioned emc previously.

I notice however that Kgray had actually made a fairly detailed post on page 92 about why she was finding Chaqa more suspect. So I would say the appearance of Chaqa in Kgray's scumreads a little later is less surprising than Bozo suggests.

With regard to EMC, Bozo's point is stronger, but again there on page 92 Kgray asks Worcej if EMC could be a scum lurker. It's not much but it's not nothing either.

Bozo's commentary about the vote moves appears accurate.

On the basis of this analysis by Bozo I would lessen my townread of Kgray, but at the same time, it's not a "gotcha!" either.

kgray's post on page 92 about Chaqa was early on D3 when the vote was emc 3 Chaqa 2 xorxes 2, and at the time of her post about emc on page 92 the vote was emc 3 Chaqa 2 xorxes 2 Pjandy 1.

My point is that this was the first time she established a scum read of either Chaqa or emc, when they were already lynch candidates on D3. Her response to this was:

To be honest I was probably influenced somewhat by all the pressure emc and Chaqa were getting. I'm trying not to let other people's reads influence my own too much, but I can't avoid that completely.

This may sound reasonable, but it could also could be a fabricated excuse as scum.

[kgray]

Just to tie the wagons? .

##unvote

Yeah, see what happens.

Gonna vote either F or k

Every time someone uses this "let's see what happens" justification for their vote I like it less. Damo, are Fox and I your top two scumreads? I don't think now is the time to be voting for anyone who is not very high up on your scum list. We have only one mislynch left.

Never mind, I see that you've been talking about me vs Fox for a while. Still, if you could give a reason for your read, that would be great...

[damo666]

Just to tie the wagons? .

##unvote

Yeah, see what happens.

Gonna vote either F or k

Every time someone uses this "let's see what happens" justification for their vote I like it less. Damo, are Fox and I your top two scumreads? I don't think now is the time to be voting for anyone who is not very high up on your scum list. We have only one mislynch left.

It's sort of 60 Fox 59 you & rdr

I will vote whichever has the highest likelihood of being a lynch.

I will endeavour to avoid a tie.

If it's u v r I know what I will do but not declaring intent now.

There is gonna be opportunity for EOD shenanigans which will hopefully provide great VCA

[Fluminator]

Hmmm, this might actually be a tense and close eod again.

[kgray]

This may sound reasonable, but it could also could be a fabricated excuse as scum.

And you think it's more likely that I'm scum because I laid out my case for emc and Chaqa once they were already wagons than it is that Fox is scum who tried to save Bob D3 and then later didn't want us to know that D3 was town vs. scum?

[bozotheclown]

Do you think it's scummy to try to look at the game logically?

Seems to be the way things go around here.

@Town, please lynch Fox or rdrivera today. Their change from wanting to lynch EMC on D3 with ScumBob on the line, and then NOT wanting to lynch EMC the next day when it would reveal that they were on the town wagon in the TvS D3 is about as solid hard evidence that you’re going to get absent a PR result.

Chaqam’s Razor

Do you think they both could be scum who knew the alignment of Bob and emc, or do you think it is one or the other?

[Jamiet99uk]

kgray's post on page 92 about Chaqa was early on D3 when the vote was emc 3 Chaqa 2 xorxes 2, and at the time of her post about emc on page 92 the vote was emc 3 Chaqa 2 xorxes 2 Pjandy 1.

My point is that this was the first time she established a scum read of either Chaqa or emc, when they were already lynch candidates on D3. Her response to this was:

To be honest I was probably influenced somewhat by all the pressure emc and Chaqa were getting. I'm trying not to let other people's reads influence my own too much, but I can't avoid that completely.

This may sound reasonable, but it could also could be a fabricated excuse as scum.

Fair enough. Either way this is hardly a very strong case. I'm not saying you're wrong, but this is far from enough to convince me you're right, and certainly not enough to move my vote onto Kgray.

[Fluminator]

Agreed with Jamiet. It's possible, but compared to other cases it's really not much.

[Fluminator]

Rdrivera, would you vote for Fox or Kdray first?