M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Fluminator]

That coupled with his blatant defenses of Bob, never interacting with Bob, cherry picked meta case which didn't seem genuine to me, losing interest in EMC the next day, and now his actions today.

[Fluminator]

(Love ya Fox)

[damo666]

I would rather give the Watcher 3 chances to find a better lynch than me. Every night, 2 scum move. I think that's a risk worth taking.

Why do you say that two scum move every night? Isn’t it just the one who makes the NK?

Fake townslip?

[damo666]

##call GM, does Patient Zero have to use their Night scan, or can they holster it?

Is this Balki laying it on with a trowel?

[Foxcastle]

I don’t think Town!Fox would advocate for this No Lynch strategy. I think he knows he will be lynched, and he’s just trying to do weird things to make it tough to read his partners. I don’t think we can put much stock into his actions.

Fox, if you’re Town, please make your best effort to solve the game, and tell us your best thoughts on the full scum team and why, so we can use that after you flip.

Balki, your patronizing "now go do work" is something you did in M46, too. It's you trying to wave me off of saving myself.

Why wouldn't I advocate for this strategy as town? I know I'm the most scumread player here (with Rdrivera, but I'm listed first by most people), I know that my main case on who I think is most likely scum (you) got zero traction. The idea that I'd waste more time trying to convince people who don't want to listen to me on a case they don't believe is terrible.

Instead, I am trying to convince Town to do things that are objectively good for them, and actually could give us a chance to win.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I would rather give the Watcher 3 chances to find a better lynch than me. Every night, 2 scum move. I think that's a risk worth taking.

Why do you say that two scum move every night? Isn’t it just the one who makes the NK?

Fake townslip?

You know what, Damo? There is no such thing as a #faketownslip on this website, because any time anyone has a question about the rules, there are four people chomping at the bit at their keyboards ready to declare “FAKE TOWN SLIP!!! FAKE TOWN SLIP!!!” Most especially when I have a question about the rules.

So for this to be a #faketownslip, I would have had to think that faking a sincere question about the rules might possibly make someone think that I am town and not a super sneaky scum manipulator. Which I don’t.

[Fluminator]

I fake townslip all the time as town lol

[Fluminator]

The only time I ever actually townslipped genuinely I got scumread for it.

[BunnyGo]

##call GM, does Patient Zero have to use their Night scan, or can they holster it?

Dude. Not only is it clear in the rules, I JUST posted that it is clear in the rules.

[BunnyGo]

##call GM, does Patient Zero have to use their Night scan, or can they holster it?

Is this Balki laying it on with a trowel?

It’s really heavy handed.

[brainbomb]

Paul took Janet by the arm to stare at Freedoms body.

"Look at him. look at his face. My associate here, lets just call him Absolution, thinks you might be important. Are you important?"

Janet refused to answer.

"So, thats how it is".

A silvery seagull flew over. Paul looked up. "I never cared for pretty seabirds, shoot it."

A thug aimed at the bird and missed.

"Pathetic"


Vote Count Day 5
Foxcastle (4) Balki Bartokomous damo666 kgray Fluminator
rdrivera2005 (3) xorxes Jamiet99uk rdrivera2005*
kgray (2) BunnyGo bozotheclown

No‑Lynch (1) Foxcastle

End-votes (1/10):
rdrivera2005


Fox is scheduled to be lynched
less than 24 hours remain

[bozotheclown]

xorxes vs. rdrivera and Balki vs. Foxcastle could be all town, I can see all of them believing the cases they are making, although patient zero could be hiding in there.

Could be, but I doubt rivera and Fox are both town, because of D4 votes.

Is that because they tried to avoid lynching emc, or because they tried to lynch you?

[bozotheclown]

Are Rdrivera and I the most widely scumread of all the players at this point?

I think Kgray and Damo are also scumread, but they seem pretty far behind us.

I would like everyone to list who they think is the most scumread. Not who you scumread the most, but who you think others scumread the most. The top 2 at least, go for 3 if you think there's a clear set that's ahead of everyone else; if you really think there are 4 people who are all nearly equally scumread, list that, I guess, but I think four borders on unhelpful.

That appears to be you and rdrivera based on the voting.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I don’t think Town!Fox would advocate for this No Lynch strategy. I think he knows he will be lynched, and he’s just trying to do weird things to make it tough to read his partners. I don’t think we can put much stock into his actions.

Fox, if you’re Town, please make your best effort to solve the game, and tell us your best thoughts on the full scum team and why, so we can use that after you flip.

Balki, your patronizing "now go do work" is something you did in M46, too. It's you trying to wave me off of saving myself.

Why wouldn't I advocate for this strategy as town? I know I'm the most scumread player here (with Rdrivera, but I'm listed first by most people), I know that my main case on who I think is most likely scum (you) got zero traction. The idea that I'd waste more time trying to convince people who don't want to listen to me on a case they don't believe is terrible.

Instead, I am trying to convince Town to do things that are objectively good for them, and actually could give us a chance to win.

Well, look, I’m not 100% sure you are scum. You could be Town. If you are Town, I’d like you to take the time to give your complete, best thoughts on the full scum team and why.

I don’t think that your no lynch strategy is going to gain traction. And I think, based on your voting record, that your going to be lynched today. So please work on solving to leave us with something useful. Not to save yourself, as I just doubt you will be saved at this point, but to leave us with something great that can help us win the game after you perish.

I don’t mean to be patronizing. I sincerely want you to do this because I think it would be helpful if you are Town.

[rdrivera2005]

I'm at that stage too. He's successfully made me doubt Rdrivera a little more if that's his motive.
I'd expect him to do what rdrivera is doing, because he has to know if he gets lynched and flips town, Balki is almost definitely getting lynched next.

Do you really think Balki will be next if Fox flip town? Because I just feel the same people who scumread Fox will just jump into me just saying we can both be town.

[xorxes]

Not sure if this is completely right, but this is what I get:

3 NKs in a row, chances that watcher gains info and survives to tell us are:

7/8 * 2/10 + 7/8 * 6/7 * 2/9 + 7/8 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 2/8 = 66%

(Random) Lynch + 2 NKs, chances that we get scum either by lynch or by watcher:

3/10 + 7/10 * 6/7 * 2/9 + 7/10 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 2/8 = 56%

So if those are the right calculations (debatable) then it does appear that the 3 NKs gives us a 10% better chance of finding scum. However, this assumes that our lynch is completely random, which it isn't, and it also has the cost that we get no wagon information.

So no, I don't think it's such a good idea.

[Balki Bartokomous]

##call GM, does Patient Zero have to use their Night scan, or can they holster it?

Dude. Not only is it clear in the rules, I JUST posted that it is clear in the rules.

So what is the rule?

Sorry, I am not caught up.

[rdrivera2005]

I'm at that stage too. He's successfully made me doubt Rdrivera a little more if that's his motive.
I'd expect him to do what rdrivera is doing, because he has to know if he gets lynched and flips town, Balki is almost definitely getting lynched next.

Do you really think Balki will be next if Fox flip town? Because I just feel the same people who scumread Fox will just jump into me just saying we can both be town.

We can't both be town.

[BunnyGo]

I don’t think Town!Fox would advocate for this No Lynch strategy. I think he knows he will be lynched, and he’s just trying to do weird things to make it tough to read his partners. I don’t think we can put much stock into his actions.

Fox, if you’re Town, please make your best effort to solve the game, and tell us your best thoughts on the full scum team and why, so we can use that after you flip.

Balki, your patronizing "now go do work" is something you did in M46, too. It's you trying to wave me off of saving myself.

Why wouldn't I advocate for this strategy as town? I know I'm the most scumread player here (with Rdrivera, but I'm listed first by most people), I know that my main case on who I think is most likely scum (you) got zero traction. The idea that I'd waste more time trying to convince people who don't want to listen to me on a case they don't believe is terrible.

Instead, I am trying to convince Town to do things that are objectively good for them, and actually could give us a chance to win.

Well, look, I’m not 100% sure you are scum. You could be Town. If you are Town, I’d like you to take the time to give your complete, best thoughts on the full scum team and why.

I don’t think that your no lynch strategy is going to gain traction. And I think, based on your voting record, that your going to be lynched today. So please work on solving to leave us with something useful. Not to save yourself, as I just doubt you will be saved at this point, but to leave us with something great that can help us win the game after you perish.

I don’t mean to be patronizing. I sincerely want you to do this because I think it would be helpful if you are Town.

I for one think his no lynch strategy has merit. I would like people to actually consider it. Try and post your best arguments in its favor. And against. I think it is a strong idea, even if Fox is scum. I don’t think it’s slam dunk obvious for town, but I think there’s merit and it’s not obvious to dismiss it.

[brainbomb]

##call GM, does Patient Zero have to use their Night scan, or can they holster it?

Dude. Not only is it clear in the rules, I JUST posted that it is clear in the rules.

So what is the rule?

Sorry, I am not caught up.

Patient 0 is required to act every night
if they fail to submit an action is still randomized by force