M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Foxcastle]

Ok, if only one of Rdrivera and Fox are scum, I think Fox is the more likely candidate

I'm staying on Rdrivera for now though so wagons stay more equal.

Does this mean you reject the No-Lynch plan?

I think it might have been a good plan if we started doing it day 1, so we'd also have our cop get more scans, and it would lower the possible scum teams even more before we start lynching.

I wonder if anyone would have gone for it... But coulda-woulda-shoulda'ing about Day 1 is hardly the point now.

Why not go for the Triple No-Lynch plan?

[rdrivera2005]

But you are looking only at the final vote. Chaqa for example was a strong pusher for a Xorxes lynch.

These were all the votes from the NKs (I think):

brainbomb: Vecna Chaqa Temasek
bo_sox: brainbomb
worcej: Fox Pjandy Bob
Chaqa: emc bozo Temasek xorxes Vecna Balki Bob Bunny Flum Fox Chaqa

If you really think they are targetting people who vote for them then you should be voting Fox, not me.

Stop being Lazy!Xorxes. It’s scary. The point isn’t just the EOD vote (Jamie covered that analysis). The point is to analyze who they are PUSHING!

I gave up Bunny. Now Xorxes successfully get Jamiet to jump on me with this bullshit.

If you and Flum agree to lynch Xorxes next I will play a Vecna and suicide. What do you think?

[Fluminator]

No, that was sarcasm, you always lynch day 1.

I think it's a terrible plan lmao
You're asking to give up an entire town mislynch in exchange for giving mafia another nightkill to find and kill the watcher for a small chance the watcher catches scum without dying.

[Fluminator]

Also, with 10 players, there are 45 potential two-player combinations that could be the main scum team. If we no-lynch three times, that becomes 21 combinations, and maybe we'd have a better chance of eliminating most of those pairs to actually figure this out.

We get to this spot mislynching as well.

[rdrivera2005]

Rdrivera, are you not a little confused by Fox's blatant buddying of you?

Yes, I am. Fox usually scumread me when I am town, more or less like Xorxes. I have now to factor his no-lynch theory, which is weird.

How sure you are about Fox being scum? Because if we lynch him and he is town we just lose as I will be lynched next

I will also make you the same question I did to Bunny If I play a Vecna and just suicide would you lynch Xorxes tomorrow?

[Fluminator]

These were all the votes from the NKs (I think):

brainbomb: Vecna Chaqa Temasek
bo_sox: brainbomb
worcej: Fox Pjandy Bob
Chaqa: emc bozo Temasek xorxes Vecna Balki Bob Bunny Flum Fox Chaqa

If you really think they are targetting people who vote for them then you should be voting Fox, not me.

Stop being Lazy!Xorxes. It’s scary. The point isn’t just the EOD vote (Jamie covered that analysis). The point is to analyze who they are PUSHING!

I gave up Bunny. Now Xorxes successfully get Jamiet to jump on me with this bullshit.

If you and Flum agree to lynch Xorxes next I will play a Vecna and suicide. What do you think?

Ok, deal.
##End

[Foxcastle]

No, that was sarcasm, you always lynch day 1.

I think it's a terrible plan lmao
You're asking to give up an entire town mislynch in exchange for giving mafia another nightkill to find and kill the watcher for a small chance the watcher catches scum without dying.

Interesting that you admit it's a mislynch... But with two scum on the move each night, I don't think that's a small chance that the Watcher could catch someone, and giving the watcher an extra go in fact increases the opportunity for a catch by 50%; and if the Watcher dies the first night, then we still get to lynch for info tomorrow before being in LyLo. So there's even a one-third chance that if the watcher is NK'd that town gets a lynch for info.

[Foxcastle]

Also, with 10 players, there are 45 potential two-player combinations that could be the main scum team. If we no-lynch three times, that becomes 21 combinations, and maybe we'd have a better chance of eliminating most of those pairs to actually figure this out.

We get to this spot mislynching as well.

Yes, but I'm town and I don't want to die. And with me being so widely scumread, that's hardly a helpful lynch.

[rdrivera2005]

I would like everyone to list who they think is the most scumread. Not who you scumread the most, but who you think others scumread the most. The top 2 at least, go for 3 if you think there's a clear set that's ahead of everyone else; if you really think there are 4 people who are all nearly equally scumread, list that, I guess, but I think four borders on unhelpful.

Balki:
Bozo:
BunnyGo: Rdrivera, Fox, Xorxes, Balki
Damo:
Flum: Fox, Rdrivera >> Balki
Fox: Fox, Rdrivera >> Damo, Kgray
Jamiet:
Kgray: Fox, Rdrivera
Rdrivera:
Xorxes: Fox, Rdrivera, Balki

Rdrivera? Jamiet? Damo? Bozo? Balki?

Rdrivera, Fox

[rdrivera2005]

Stop being Lazy!Xorxes. It’s scary. The point isn’t just the EOD vote (Jamie covered that analysis). The point is to analyze who they are PUSHING!

I gave up Bunny. Now Xorxes successfully get Jamiet to jump on me with this bullshit.

If you and Flum agree to lynch Xorxes next I will play a Vecna and suicide. What do you think?

Ok, deal.
##End

##vote rdrivera2005
##end

[Fluminator]

No, that was sarcasm, you always lynch day 1.

I think it's a terrible plan lmao
You're asking to give up an entire town mislynch in exchange for giving mafia another nightkill to find and kill the watcher for a small chance the watcher catches scum without dying.

Interesting that you admit it's a mislynch... But with two scum on the move each night, I don't think that's a small chance that the Watcher could catch someone, and giving the watcher an extra go in fact increases the opportunity for a catch by 50%; and if the Watcher dies the first night, then we still get to lynch for info tomorrow before being in LyLo. So there's even a one-third chance that if the watcher is NK'd that town gets a lynch for info.

What else would I call it? If the lynch is on scum, it doesn't bring us to lylo.

[Fluminator]

Also, with 10 players, there are 45 potential two-player combinations that could be the main scum team. If we no-lynch three times, that becomes 21 combinations, and maybe we'd have a better chance of eliminating most of those pairs to actually figure this out.

We get to this spot mislynching as well.

Yes, but I'm town and I don't want to die. And with me being so widely scumread, that's hardly a helpful lynch.

Would you rather get mislynched at lylo, where it's game over?

[Fluminator]

Uggh, I really want to call Rdrivera's probably bluff
but ##Vote Fox

[Foxcastle]

We get to this spot mislynching as well.

Yes, but I'm town and I don't want to die. And with me being so widely scumread, that's hardly a helpful lynch.

Would you rather get mislynched at lylo, where it's game over?

I would rather give the Watcher 3 chances to find a better lynch than me. Every night, 2 scum move. I think that's a risk worth taking.

[damo666]

I would like everyone to list who they think is the most scumread. Not who you scumread the most, but who you think others scumread the most. The top 2 at least, go for 3 if you think there's a clear set that's ahead of everyone else; if you really think there are 4 people who are all nearly equally scumread, list that, I guess, but I think four borders on unhelpful.

Balki:
Bozo:
BunnyGo: Rdrivera, Fox, Xorxes, Balki
Damo:
Flum: Fox, Rdrivera >> Balki
Fox: Fox, Rdrivera >> Damo, Kgray
Jamiet:
Kgray: Fox, Rdrivera
Rdrivera:
Xorxes: Fox, Rdrivera, Balki

Rdrivera? Jamiet? Damo? Bozo? Balki?

Don't see the point of this but....

1. Fox
2.= rdr & kgray

[Balki Bartokomous]

I would rather give the Watcher 3 chances to find a better lynch than me. Every night, 2 scum move. I think that's a risk worth taking.

Why do you say that two scum move every night? Isn’t it just the one who makes the NK?

[Fluminator]

Patient Zero has a visit/scan

[Balki Bartokomous]

I don’t think Town!Fox would advocate for this No Lynch strategy. I think he knows he will be lynched, and he’s just trying to do weird things to make it tough to read his partners. I don’t think we can put much stock into his actions.

Fox, if you’re Town, please make your best effort to solve the game, and tell us your best thoughts on the full scum team and why, so we can use that after you flip.

[Fluminator]

I'm at that stage too. He's successfully made me doubt Rdrivera a little more if that's his motive.
I'd expect him to do what rdrivera is doing, because he has to know if he gets lynched and flips town, Balki is almost definitely getting lynched next.

[Balki Bartokomous]

##call GM, does Patient Zero have to use their Night scan, or can they holster it?