M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[rdrivera2005]

@Rdrivera:

Your theory is that scum are nightkilling people voting for them.

None of the people nightkilled ended the day on a Xorxes vote, ever.

Please therefore explain why Xorxes is your top scumread.

Do you scumread Foxcastle?

I answered about Fox on my last post. What scares me about lynching Fox is that if he is town I think it will be game over. People like Flum and Xorxes will just say they choose the wrong emc voter and will lynch me next, with Balki and kgray help. So, how sure you are Fox is scum?

Ny scumread of Xorxes have nothing to do with nightkills. Maybe I am just trying to fit them on my theories, I am not immune to confirmation bias.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Rdrivera:

Your theory is that scum are nightkilling people voting for them.

None of the people nightkilled ended the day on a Xorxes vote, ever.

Please therefore explain why Xorxes is your top scumread.

Do you scumread Foxcastle?

I answered about Fox on my last post. What scares me about lynching Fox is that if he is town I think it will be game over. People like Flum and Xorxes will just say they choose the wrong emc voter and will lynch me next, with Balki and kgray help. So, how sure you are Fox is scum?

Ny scumread of Xorxes have nothing to do with nightkills. Maybe I am just trying to fit them on my theories, I am not immune to confirmation bias.

I'm not sure that Fox is scum at all. That's not why I asked you. I asked you because looking at of all the NK'ed people, and looking at who they ended the days voting for, only Foxcastle is still alive - and you had a theory the Mafia were killing their voters.

[damo666]

Really? Care to explain?

Sorry Flum does not fit the bill. Bozo? Jamie? Doubt these. I townread Xorxes and Balki. That's why I keep coming round to Flum as the potential scum Bobvoter

Why you townread Xorxes?

open book

[damo666]

@Rdrivera:

Your theory is that scum are nightkilling people voting for them.

None of the people nightkilled ended the day on a Xorxes vote, ever.

Please therefore explain why Xorxes is your top scumread.

Do you scumread Foxcastle?

I answered about Fox on my last post. What scares me about lynching Fox is that if he is town I think it will be game over. People like Flum and Xorxes will just say they choose the wrong emc voter and will lynch me next, with Balki and kgray help. So, how sure you are Fox is scum?

Ny scumread of Xorxes have nothing to do with nightkills. Maybe I am just trying to fit them on my theories, I am not immune to confirmation bias.

Doesn't this apply to all EMC voters?

[rdrivera2005]

@Rdrivera:

Your theory is that scum are nightkilling people voting for them.

None of the people nightkilled ended the day on a Xorxes vote, ever.

Please therefore explain why Xorxes is your top scumread.

Do you scumread Foxcastle?

I answered about Fox on my last post. What scares me about lynching Fox is that if he is town I think it will be game over. People like Flum and Xorxes will just say they choose the wrong emc voter and will lynch me next, with Balki and kgray help. So, how sure you are Fox is scum?

Ny scumread of Xorxes have nothing to do with nightkills. Maybe I am just trying to fit them on my theories, I am not immune to confirmation bias.

Doesn't this apply to all EMC voters?

I don't know why this players keep pushing a narrative that either Fox or me (or both) must be scum. I don't see them doing the same with you or kgray for example.

[xorxes]

I will start with ##VOTE rdrivera

Why?

My main reason is not something that anyone else will be particularly convinced by. His town game and scum game are pretty similar, but one thing he never does as town is townread me off the bat. If there's one person that always has suspicion of me no matter what I do it's rivera (and I usually return the favor, but I think less than he does to me). I may be wrong, but that's the strongest indicator.

[Jamiet99uk]

Of the still alive people on the D3 EMC wagon, Rdrivera is the most suspect.

In fact his D3 voting pattern and behaviour is suspect all the way through.

After being almost absent D2 he declared Xorxes scummy N2 and started D3 by voting Xorxes.

Then Xorxes started a Bob McBob wagon which Rdrivera quickly joins. This wagon becomes a lead wagon, at which point Rdrivera leaves it, to vote Fluminator. Then Foxcastle and myself move onto the Bob wagon, bringing it back to equal first place, and again Rdrivera moves, this time to the rival EMC wagon, where he stays.

It seems strange in retrospect that Rdrivera would start the day voting Xorxes, then as soon as his top scumread Xorxes starts the wagon on Bob, Rdrivera joins it (alongside his top scumread), but once Bob becomes a viable wagon, Rdrivera jumps off, and twice joins other wagons that are potential rivals to Bob's wagon.

(At no point during D3 does he suggest Xorxes is bussing Bob. He later does suggest this in response to Balki).

It looks for all the world as if Rdrivera didn't expect Bob to be a viable lynch and then when Bob did become a viable wagon, tried to get Flum or EMC lynched instead of Bob.

Now he has come up with this "theory" that the Mafia are killing off the people who vote for them, and yet the logical consequence of this theory, as I have shown, is that Fox should be a top suspect for him - yet he appears to be looking for any possible reason to avoid voting for Foxcastle today.

##VOTE RDRIVERA

[xorxes]

Okay, so do you think it makes sense for either me or damo specifically to be Balki's partner? Or is this just based on you POE?

Oh, I have a theory about you specifically, being a a new player. (Not judging your skills, just your newness to this group.) I think that makes it more important that Balki target the unusual suspects for the NK, because with Sulit lurking and then Bob lurking, and with you being new, it was even more important that he create plausible deniability about why he and Xorxes hadn't been NK'd as game goes on, because if he and Xorxes go down, their game is left in the hands of a lurker and an unknown quantity.

And Balki's repeated praising of kgray? Would he not be distancing himself for when he flips scum?

Not necessarily. Making it look like he is trying to pocket her could be a double bluff. But I don't think it's fruitful to examine this before we even know any of their alignments.

[xorxes]

I always feel judged by hypothetical god thread people spectating at this point in the game if I'm wrong, but I just don't think I can consider 4d chess moves right now, when separate distinct scumtells all point to at least one of Rdrivera and Fox being scum.
I'll start with ##Vote Rdrivera

If yiu want to waste the last myslynch on me go ahead.
I am pretty sure at least one of you, Xorxes and Balki are scum, probably two (and are keeping the other alive as a cover). There is no possible scumteam that will lynch Brain, Worcej and Chaqa before you three if you are all town.

This is probably true. Even noobs would pick up on the praise thrown at them. In fact, a noob scum team would not even be thinking hard about avoiding the watcher, and go for them for sure...

There isn't any chance of a fully noob scum team left, unless you count yourself as a noob. kgray-Bunny would be the only possibility left that I could describe as "noob" (patient zero could be experienced but is not making any decisions of who to kill). Do you still consider yourself a noob?

[xorxes]

This is probably true. Even noobs would pick up on the praise thrown at them. In fact, a noob scum team would not even be thinking hard about avoiding the watcher, and go for them for sure...

What does this mean, Bunny? Why do I feel like you're trying to subtly imply all kinds of nonsense with this post? Please explain what you're saying here.

noob scum (from what I've gathered, most scum) are scared of smart, talented, town players. Xorxes, Flum, Balki have reputations as that (I've only played with Xorxes before, but I've gathered from reading that everyone who knows them respects their abilities).

So...they are prime targets for scum to kill. Why aren't they dead? One argument is they ARE scum. One argument is that the scum team is so scared of the watcher, that they are avoiding them so the watcher doesn't catch them.

My post is: a noob scum team would certainly be targeting them, AND would not be thinking about the watcher so much to avoid them. So it is unlikely to be an all noob scum team.

So basically what you're saying is that kgray-Bunny is an unlikely team?

[xorxes]

What does this mean, Bunny? Why do I feel like you're trying to subtly imply all kinds of nonsense with this post? Please explain what you're saying here.

noob scum (from what I've gathered, most scum) are scared of smart, talented, town players. Xorxes, Flum, Balki have reputations as that (I've only played with Xorxes before, but I've gathered from reading that everyone who knows them respects their abilities).

So...they are prime targets for scum to kill. Why aren't they dead? One argument is they ARE scum. One argument is that the scum team is so scared of the watcher, that they are avoiding them so the watcher doesn't catch them.

My post is: a noob scum team would certainly be targeting them, AND would not be thinking about the watcher so much to avoid them. So it is unlikely to be an all noob scum team.

So what conclusions are you drawing about the "noobiness" of the scumteam? And why are you ignoring the fact that the scumteam can talk to each other? You and Fox have both made arguments about the composition of the scumteam that implies that they can't communicate with each other. What's the difference, in your mind, of a scumteam (besides PZ) made up of one "noob" and two "good players" vs a team made of two "noobs" and one "good player"?

If you think the scumteam is unlikely to be all-noob, why does it matter if there are any noobs at all? Surely the experienced players would control the night kill and general strategy, and the noob would have very little say in what happened?

I just don't get what the point of all this analysis is.

It's weird when these arguments are made so much in the abstract instead of naming names. The conclusion of this discussion you two are having is that you two could not be the scum team, but neither one of you is saying it explicity.

[xorxes]

Oh, and I STILL don’t understand the rdr wagon. Can anyone enlighten me why he’s the leading candidate from the D3 EMC wagon?

Why do you think he is the leading candidate? Do you think he is town?

I don't know.

Yes. see my previous post comparing him to kgray (damo is also scummier than he is for all that EOD "one more vote!" stuff)

You said he was the leading candidate, but he was never in the lead. My question was why you thought he was the leading candidate.

[Foxcastle]

Are Rdrivera and I the most widely scumread of all the players at this point?

I think Kgray and Damo are also scumread, but they seem pretty far behind us.

[BunnyGo]

I think they are either trying to find the last PR or killing people that vote on them. As I didn't really see anything that indicates Chaqa was crumbing Watcher the second option seems likely.

Ok you think the Mafia are voting for people who vote for them.

Let's examine your theory.

People who have been NK'ed

Chaqa - voted for Temasek, Vecna, EMC, Chaqa

Worcej - voted for Foxcastle, Pjandy, Bob McBob

Bo-Sox - Voted for Brainbomb

Brainbomb - Voted for Temasek

Therefore Foxcastle is scum, according to your theory, correct?

Maybe, I feel him towny in his exchange with Balki, but I have been wrong about Fox before. He and kgray are my best bet for the scum on the emc wagon. Damo as a third place.

But you are looking only at the final vote. Chaqa for example was a strong pusher for a Xorxes lynch.

This is an interesting point that Jamie’s otherwise sound analysis misses.

[BunnyGo]

I will start with ##VOTE rdrivera

Why?

My main reason is not something that anyone else will be particularly convinced by. His town game and scum game are pretty similar, but one thing he never does as town is townread me off the bat. If there's one person that always has suspicion of me no matter what I do it's rivera (and I usually return the favor, but I think less than he does to me). I may be wrong, but that's the strongest indicator.

Your strong reason at this point is META?! That is lazy as shit.

[xorxes]

I'm flattered at being compared to Balki and Xorx, when I'm coming fresh off forcing everyone to lynch EMC for a stupid reason in hindsight.

Balki is almost definitely going to be up for lynch before the game is done at this rate, so it would be very foolish for mafia to kill him if he's town. Like would anyone here on a scum team want to kill Balki at this point?

Mafia often view the games in terms of lynchables and unlynchables, and you'd usually kill a harmless unlynchable person before a smart very-lynchable person. Because in order to win you need mislynches.
This is the main thing why PRs are good. They are unlynchable. (unless they don't claim before lynch........)

Xorx is very lynchable as well it seems, with all the pressure he's getting.
This is before taking into account there is a watcher and Xorx is likely the number one assumed NK so...

I doubt scum view me as a lynchable, but I haven't had a good game in a long time, so my reputation is mainly from older players remembering other older players holding me in high regard xD

So I'm not convinced it's weird me, Balki, and Xorx are still alive if we are all town. It could also be that the people loudly pushing the "how are they still alive" are people I scumread turning me off from the idea.

You did the xD again.

I can easily see you or Balki as patient zero, and I don't see any reason people could not see me as patient zero as well. What I find suspicious is Fox saying I must be patient zero when patient zero is almost indistinguishable from a townie without knowing who the rest of the scumteam are.

[Foxcastle]

I can easily see you or Balki as patient zero, and I don't see any reason people could not see me as patient zero as well. What I find suspicious is Fox saying I must be patient zero when patient zero is almost indistinguishable from a townie without knowing who the rest of the scumteam are.

Why do you continue to utterly mischaracterize what I say? Is it deliberate?

I do not say, ever, that you "must" be patient zero. I say that you're likely Patient Zero, and I made a point that the reason you fit Patient Zero is that you are not solving (scum indicative), but you also do not fit the profile of "scum-Xorxes getting caught" and I think that's because you don't know your teammates.

[xorxes]

xorxes vs. rdrivera and Balki vs. Foxcastle could be all town, I can see all of them believing the cases they are making, although patient zero could be hiding in there.

Could be, but I doubt rivera and Fox are both town, because of D4 votes.

[rdrivera2005]

I will start with ##VOTE rdrivera

Why?

My main reason is not something that anyone else will be particularly convinced by. His town game and scum game are pretty similar, but one thing he never does as town is townread me off the bat. If there's one person that always has suspicion of me no matter what I do it's rivera (and I usually return the favor, but I think less than he does to me). I may be wrong, but that's the strongest indicator.

This on D5 is so unbelievable. Your main reason to scumread me is a half joke I made on my first post? This is not town Xorxes.

[Foxcastle]

Are Rdrivera and I the most widely scumread of all the players at this point?

I think Kgray and Damo are also scumread, but they seem pretty far behind us.

I would like everyone to list who they think is the most scumread. Not who you scumread the most, but who you think others scumread the most. The top 2 at least, go for 3 if you think there's a clear set that's ahead of everyone else; if you really think there are 4 people who are all nearly equally scumread, list that, I guess, but I think four borders on unhelpful.