M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[bozotheclown]

In summary, damo, kgray, Foxcastle all look like they were actively trying to save Bob near EOD despite none of them town reading Bob (kgray and Foxcastle were scum reading him), and all three voted for both emc and Chaqa as alternatives to Bob. However, there are only 2 scum left who were likely to know Bob was their partner. Also, considering how inactive sulit and Bob were, I would not expect the scum to go all in trying to save Bob. My guess is that one of these 3 is scum and one scum was bussing Bob for cover, while patient zero could be anywhere.

[damo666]

@bozo who iyo is the most likely busser

[bozotheclown]

@bozo

All the points you make about me are valid but I ain't scum.

How do you rank Fox, rdr, kgray and Jamie in terms of scumminess.

There must be at least 1 scum here, probably 2 and just possibly 3.

Ranking them town to scum: Jamie, rdrivera, Foxcastle, kgray.

[damo666]

@bozo

All the points you make about me are valid but I ain't scum.

How do you rank Fox, rdr, kgray and Jamie in terms of scumminess.

There must be at least 1 scum here, probably 2 and just possibly 3.

Ranking them town to scum: Jamie, rdrivera, Foxcastle, kgray.

I would swap Fox and k but otherwise concur

[bozotheclown]

@bozo who iyo is the most likely busser

BunnyGo, for the timing of his vote on Bob, and for his rapid read changes of both Bob and Chaqa after he switched his vote from Chaqa to Bob. I had a detailed post about it at the beginning of N3.

[bozotheclown]

@bozo who iyo is the most likely busser

BunnyGo, for the timing of his vote on Bob, and for his rapid read changes of both Bob and Chaqa after he switched his vote from Chaqa to Bob. I had a detailed post about it at the beginning of N3.

BunnyGo voting for kgray today makes me wonder if he could be bussing her as well, it could provide some distancing when neither seems at much risk of getting lynched.

[bozotheclown]

The thing that stands out to me as most suspicious about kgray is here sudden scum reads of emc and Chaqa D3 after they became wagons. Overall kgray comes across as town trying to push people for information, but she may just be very good at sounding town like.

##VOTE kgray

[bozotheclown]

xorxes vs. rdrivera and Balki vs. Foxcastle could be all town, I can see all of them believing the cases they are making, although patient zero could be hiding in there.

[rdrivera2005]

Dumb Bunny really doesn't understand the Rdr votes. Can you spell it out for me clearly without making me hunt through the thread for some previously stated argument across 4 posts and 2 days? You seem a good explainer when you want to.

The couple times I've looked, I've come up thinking he looks townier than the other D3EMC voters.

What are you looking at when you say this? His ISO overall or the D3 votes?

Among the D3 EMC voters, his ISO doesn't seem so bad. He wasn't bad on D2 unlike many (yes he voted end, but like me wasn't around to stop the foolishness later).

I see his day 3 movement as townie. He challenges Xorxes somewhat coherently (especially over the Vecna debacle). He is thinking about you. He is thinking about Bob. He is stuck between Bob and EMC. It was a tough call with 2 lurkers. I see this as working confused town!rdr.

YOU on the other hand (for comparison of a D3 EMC voter) zero in on Chaq and EMC and push hard for anyone but your scumread of Bob. So you couldn't be wrong. But you could try to push things onto the 2 town wagons. Your votes don't jump as much, but I don't care. His logic was sounder, and less manipulative.

Doing this comparison not just with votes, but seeing how people think is the key. Your thoughts seemed forced "I scum read Bob, but never gonna vote for him" (paraphrased), his seemed searching and confused and hunting.

I don't know which Bunny is this, but it's a really smart bunny.

[rdrivera2005]

The exchange between Bunny and Kgray and Bunny and Balki, put Bunny on top of my townlist. Kgray moves a bit to the scum side and Balki have some towny moments. I still don't like his fixation that scum won't bus (scum won last game with all scum bussing emc on D1), but maybe he really believes this and it's not an agenda. I don't think Balki is a good lynch today and I will not vote him unless to save myself.

[rdrivera2005]

@bozo

All the points you make about me are valid but I ain't scum.

How do you rank Fox, rdr, kgray and Jamie in terms of scumminess.

There must be at least 1 scum here, probably 2 and just possibly 3.

I will eat a shoe if there is 3 scum here.

[rdrivera2005]

So what conclusions are you drawing about the "noobiness" of the scumteam? And why are you ignoring the fact that the scumteam can talk to each other? You and Fox have both made arguments about the composition of the scumteam that implies that they can't communicate with each other. What's the difference, in your mind, of a scumteam (besides PZ) made up of one "noob" and two "good players" vs a team made of two "noobs" and one "good player"?

If you think the scumteam is unlikely to be all-noob, why does it matter if there are any noobs at all? Surely the experienced players would control the night kill and general strategy, and the noob would have very little say in what happened?

I just don't get what the point of all this analysis is.

The point is to answer this question:

Why are Xorxes, Flum, Balki still alive?

The analysis is a long way of coming to the conclusion: probably because at least one of them is scum.

It would take a very brave and clever scum team with none of them on it to leave all 3 alive so that I (and many others) would be thinking this.

Flum Fox rdr fits the bill

Really? Care to explain?

[damo666]

xorxes vs. rdrivera and Balki vs. Foxcastle could be all town, I can see all of them believing the cases they are making, although patient zero could be hiding in there.

This would make kgray almost certainly scum.

[damo666]

@bozo

All the points you make about me are valid but I ain't scum.

How do you rank Fox, rdr, kgray and Jamie in terms of scumminess.

There must be at least 1 scum here, probably 2 and just possibly 3.

I will eat a shoe if there is 3 scum here.

This actually convinces mean that rdr is town. I'm a sucker like that.

[damo666]

The point is to answer this question:

Why are Xorxes, Flum, Balki still alive?

The analysis is a long way of coming to the conclusion: probably because at least one of them is scum.

It would take a very brave and clever scum team with none of them on it to leave all 3 alive so that I (and many others) would be thinking this.

Flum Fox rdr fits the bill

Really? Care to explain?

Sorry Flum does not fit the bill. Bozo? Jamie? Doubt these. I townread Xorxes and Balki. That's why I keep coming round to Flum as the potential scum Bobvoter

[Jamiet99uk]

The Worcej wagons is an interesting thing, but unless there is two scum on him I don't see any reason to avoid killing people on that wagon. And I don't remember to ever saw a scumteam deciding the NK based on avoiding VCA. Do you remember?

Tell me what you think they are doing, then?

I think they are either trying to find the last PR or killing people that vote on them. As I didn't really see anything that indicates Chaqa was crumbing Watcher the second option seems likely.

Ok you think the Mafia are voting for people who vote for them.

Let's examine your theory.

People who have been NK'ed

Chaqa - voted for Temasek, Vecna, EMC, Chaqa

Worcej - voted for Foxcastle, Pjandy, Bob McBob

Bo-Sox - Voted for Brainbomb

Brainbomb - Voted for Temasek

Therefore Foxcastle is scum, according to your theory, correct?

[rdrivera2005]

@bozo

All the points you make about me are valid but I ain't scum.

How do you rank Fox, rdr, kgray and Jamie in terms of scumminess.

There must be at least 1 scum here, probably 2 and just possibly 3.

I will eat a shoe if there is 3 scum here.

This actually convinces mean that rdr is town. I'm a sucker like that.

Not trying to convince you, just stating that on my POV it will be Fox, kgray and Jamiet and I can't see this scumteam no matter how I look.

[rdrivera2005]

Flum Fox rdr fits the bill

Really? Care to explain?

Sorry Flum does not fit the bill. Bozo? Jamie? Doubt these. I townread Xorxes and Balki. That's why I keep coming round to Flum as the potential scum Bobvoter

Why you townread Xorxes?

[Jamiet99uk]

@Rdrivera:

Your theory is that scum are nightkilling people voting for them.

None of the people nightkilled ended the day on a Xorxes vote, ever.

Please therefore explain why Xorxes is your top scumread.

Do you scumread Foxcastle?

[rdrivera2005]

Tell me what you think they are doing, then?

I think they are either trying to find the last PR or killing people that vote on them. As I didn't really see anything that indicates Chaqa was crumbing Watcher the second option seems likely.

Ok you think the Mafia are voting for people who vote for them.

Let's examine your theory.

People who have been NK'ed

Chaqa - voted for Temasek, Vecna, EMC, Chaqa

Worcej - voted for Foxcastle, Pjandy, Bob McBob

Bo-Sox - Voted for Brainbomb

Brainbomb - Voted for Temasek

Therefore Foxcastle is scum, according to your theory, correct?

Maybe, I feel him towny in his exchange with Balki, but I have been wrong about Fox before. He and kgray are my best bet for the scum on the emc wagon. Damo as a third place.

But you are looking only at the final vote. Chaqa for example was a strong pusher for a Xorxes lynch.