M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[BunnyGo]

<snip>
I'm confused to be honest.

Fair enough...

[BunnyGo]

Put me down for Fox, RdRivera, Jamiet.

I disagree on Rdr, but Jamie is moving up the ranks with the scumslip and forced feeling remake of read order.

[BunnyGo]

If you think Xorx is Town, how could you think I am scum?

Have you looked to see who anyone has voted for ever?

I don't understand your point.

I'm rather stupid, you see, and I had quite an intense but productive PhD supervision session this afternoon, after which I did a couple of hours of quite intense research, which has left me feeling rather mentally tired, as much as I do want to engage with the game.

Because I have a very low IQ you'll have to help me out.

That's right, you're in grad school during all this. Good luck, keep your sanity up.

[kgray]

That would be incredible. It would mean all 3 bussed Bob (granted the traitor wouldn't know unless he scanned Bob or EMC). No, I don't believe all 3 are. I'm not even saying 2 are. I'm saying there's a good argument that at least 1 is.

Yes, I agree. I think it would be incredible if they were all scum.

So, if Balki, Flum and xorxes are so good at this game, and they're not all scum, why are they all on roughly the same page right now?

I don't understand your question.

Sorry, I will try to explain.

My point is, it makes sense to lynch on the emc wagon. Certain people on that wagon look very scummy because of the way they voted to end up there. That is my opinion, at least. And it seems to also be the opinion of Flum, Balki and xorxes, who are apparently very good at this game.

I'm willing to accept the argument that one of them might be scum. But you think the other two, who are likely town (in your words) and who are also good at this game, are wrong about the scumminess of the D3 emc wagon?

If you think I'm the scummiest of the emc wagon, then please do keep voting for me. But I think your argument is simultaneously putting Balk/Flum/xorxes on a pedestal and also ignoring their reads. It doesn't make sense to me.

[BunnyGo]

I have done as Balki demanded.

First of all, Balki and Xorxes have never voted for each other, ever.

On D1, neither Balki nor Xorxes was ever a viable wagon. Xorxes recieved no votes at all and I was the only person who voted for Balki at any stage. So whatever Balki is talking about has nothing to do with D1.

On D2, neither Balki nor Xorxes was ever a viable wagon. Chaqa voted for first Xorxes and later Balki, and was the only person to vote for either of them. Meanwhile Xorxes and Balki were both focused on Vecna in terms of their votes. So whatever Balki is talking about has nothing to do with D2 either.

On D3 Balki briefly attracted Bunny's vote but that's all. Balki voted for Fox nearly all day before very reluctantly moving onto Bob right at the end, having been under pressure from me to move his vote (Fox was never a viable D3 wagon).

Meanwhile, Xorxes was a 2-vote wagon for a while, started and pushed by Chaqa and joined by Rdrivera. Bob very briefly made it a 3-vote wagon before Rdrivera moved to Bob, and Bob moved to Chaqa, and then Chaqa moved to Bob. That's a strange little interaction for you but it has nothing to do with Balki that I can see.

On D4 Chaqa began with his Xorxes tunnel once again. Rdrivera (again) joined it. Again it rumbled along as a two-vote wagon for a while. Hold that thought.

Now Balki became a real wagon, briefly, for the first time in the game. Foxcastle started that one, BunnyGo joined it, and then I briefly did so too, making it Rdrivera (3) vs Balki (3) vs Xorxes (2). Soon however BunnyGo moves to Damo, the Balki wagon drops back, and is never a prominent D4 wagon again.

That Xorxes wagon was still just on two votes, whilst the EMC wagon now started to emerge. Then Chaqa moved back to Xorxes after briefly flipping around, temporarily putting Xorxes on 3. But then Rdrivera moves off Xorxes to the growing EMC wagon. Xorxes is back down on 2. Then:

Fox moves from Balki to Xorxes - EMC(5) v Xorx (3)
Rdrivera moves from EMC to Xorxes - EMC(4) v Xorx (4)

This is as close as Xorxes ever gets to being lynched here.

Then Balki weirdly moves from Foxcastle to Rdrivera, back to Foxcastle, then back to Rdrivera again. All of which has no effect on the Xorxes and EMC wagons.

At this point I accuse Balki of seeking to avoid responsiblity. He responds very rudely, but then moves to EMC, putting EMC ahead of Xorxes. The EMC wagon continues to gain momentum and he is lynched.

Conclusions: Balki appears to think he is locktown if Xorx is town, because he claims credit for saving Xorxes.

However: It is interesting to recall that on both D3 and D4 Balki only joined the lead wagon after I called him out for parking his vote on wagons that were not so viable. He will claim to have "saved" Xorxes on D4, but he actually declared his intention to sit on his irrelevant Foxcastle solo-wagon, and only moved to EMC reluctantly after I gave him shit for that.

- An interesting aside is the vote interaction between Bob McBob, Chaqa, and Rdrivera on D3 which I mention above. I really do need to take another look at Rdrivera.

I know Balki demanded it, but I appreciated this read. Thanks for doing it.

[BunnyGo]

Yes, I agree. I think it would be incredible if they were all scum.

So, if Balki, Flum and xorxes are so good at this game, and they're not all scum, why are they all on roughly the same page right now?

I don't understand your question.

Sorry, I will try to explain.

My point is, it makes sense to lynch on the emc wagon. Certain people on that wagon look very scummy because of the way they voted to end up there. That is my opinion, at least. And it seems to also be the opinion of Flum, Balki and xorxes, who are apparently very good at this game.

I'm willing to accept the argument that one of them might be scum. But you think the other two, who are likely town (in your words) and who are also good at this game, are wrong about the scumminess of the D3 emc wagon?

If you think I'm the scummiest of the emc wagon, then please do keep voting for me. But I think your argument is simultaneously putting Balk/Flum/xorxes on a pedestal and also ignoring their reads. It doesn't make sense to me.

Ah, the pedestal is not from my experience with them. I personally have no idea if they are any good. But when others believe something, it's self reinforcing.

Xorxes dies every game I play with him (except when he was 3P and Drunk Bunny (TM) caught him immediately). But I get the impression they are very good at the Lylo stage of the game.

That said, I'm not going to blindly follow their votes without challenging them. They are human, and also possibly scum. I have to find some reason to vote (like Jamie's scumslip and fake reads list).

But rdr isn't getting my vote today unless something big changes. The people voting on him either are tunneling too hard, or seeing something so beyond my ken that I'm outclassed. I think they're just wrong.

Other options on the D3EMC wagon, I'll consider.

[kgray]

I don't understand your question.

Sorry, I will try to explain.

My point is, it makes sense to lynch on the emc wagon. Certain people on that wagon look very scummy because of the way they voted to end up there. That is my opinion, at least. And it seems to also be the opinion of Flum, Balki and xorxes, who are apparently very good at this game.

I'm willing to accept the argument that one of them might be scum. But you think the other two, who are likely town (in your words) and who are also good at this game, are wrong about the scumminess of the D3 emc wagon?

If you think I'm the scummiest of the emc wagon, then please do keep voting for me. But I think your argument is simultaneously putting Balk/Flum/xorxes on a pedestal and also ignoring their reads. It doesn't make sense to me.

Ah, the pedestal is not from my experience with them. I personally have no idea if they are any good. But when others believe something, it's self reinforcing.

Xorxes dies every game I play with him (except when he was 3P and Drunk Bunny (TM) caught him immediately). But I get the impression they are very good at the Lylo stage of the game.

That said, I'm not going to blindly follow their votes without challenging them. They are human, and also possibly scum. I have to find some reason to vote (like Jamie's scumslip and fake reads list).

But rdr isn't getting my vote today unless something big changes. The people voting on him either are tunneling too hard, or seeing something so beyond my ken that I'm outclassed. I think they're just wrong.

Other options on the D3EMC wagon, I'll consider.

Yeah I'm definitely not advocating for you to blindly follow their votes or to not challenge them. I agree, they could be wrong or they could be scum.

I'm also not asking you to vote for rdr. I'm just asking you to look at the wagon and decide who is the scummiest, because I think that we have a better chance of catching scum on the emc wagon than on the bob wagon.

We have one mislynch left, and you've been saying all game that town needs to just look at the facts and decide what's the most likely scenario. I think the most likely scenario is that scum voted for emc D3 (and also tried to prevent emc's lynch D4).

[BunnyGo]

Ah, @kgray, you want me to do my who is voting analysis again? It's a bit hard this early in the day when no wagon has more than 2 people on it. I do always get a kick looking at the wagon Balki is voting on because his name is so long it looks like an extra 1-2 people are on the wagon.

But OK:

The Fox wagon is much much scummier than the rdr wagon. Damo is a good candidate to lynch today, and Balki has been a bit off all game.

Xorxes isn't great, but Flum is towny. So that wagon is clearly less scummy.

[BunnyGo]

<snip>
I think the most likely scenario is that scum voted for emc D3 (and also tried to prevent emc's lynch D4).

Why do you think they tried to prevent the D4 EMC Lynch?

[kgray]

Ah, @kgray, you want me to do my who is voting analysis again? It's a bit hard this early in the day when no wagon has more than 2 people on it. I do always get a kick looking at the wagon Balki is voting on because his name is so long it looks like an extra 1-2 people are on the wagon.

But OK:

The Fox wagon is much much scummier than the rdr wagon. Damo is a good candidate to lynch today, and Balki has been a bit off all game.

Xorxes isn't great, but Flum is towny. So that wagon is clearly less scummy.

That is not what I meant, but this is still good info to know.

[kgray]

<snip>
I think the most likely scenario is that scum voted for emc D3 (and also tried to prevent emc's lynch D4).

Why do you think they tried to prevent the D4 EMC Lynch?

Because knowing D3 was town vs. scum is huge. Without knowing emc's alignment, any arguments made about D3 have a lot less weight. If town is willing to think emc was scum, then we can't really say anything about EOD votes.

I didn't think the info lynch was the best way to go at the time, and I personally wasn't fully on board with emc over someone I thought was scummy. But, if you're town, you can't deny that knowing emc was town and bob was scum changes how you look at D3?

[Fluminator]

I'm flattered at being compared to Balki and Xorx, when I'm coming fresh off forcing everyone to lynch EMC for a stupid reason in hindsight.

Balki is almost definitely going to be up for lynch before the game is done at this rate, so it would be very foolish for mafia to kill him if he's town. Like would anyone here on a scum team want to kill Balki at this point?

Mafia often view the games in terms of lynchables and unlynchables, and you'd usually kill a harmless unlynchable person before a smart very-lynchable person. Because in order to win you need mislynches.
This is the main thing why PRs are good. They are unlynchable. (unless they don't claim before lynch........)

Xorx is very lynchable as well it seems, with all the pressure he's getting.
This is before taking into account there is a watcher and Xorx is likely the number one assumed NK so...

I doubt scum view me as a lynchable, but I haven't had a good game in a long time, so my reputation is mainly from older players remembering other older players holding me in high regard xD

So I'm not convinced it's weird me, Balki, and Xorx are still alive if we are all town. It could also be that the people loudly pushing the "how are they still alive" are people I scumread turning me off from the idea.

[bozotheclown]

Among the D3 emc voters, it seems damo and kgray are not getting much attention, although they were the only 2 who did not vote for Bob at any time D3. damo was actively trying to get emc lynched over Bob at EOD, something I have pointed out he has been willing to do before as scum.

##VOTE damo

This is true. He was posting those "one more vote" stuff.

What do you think of kgray? Her long posts saying "Bob is probably scum, but let's vote Chaq or EMC instead"?

I reviewed her D3, and I did find some things suspicious:

@kgray,

I'd like you to push yourself to put some current reads in the thread. I just read your ISO. I see a lot of questioning, but not much in the way of sticking your neck out.

You were an early voter on Tem. And I thought your reasoning sounded plausible. But your play overall is coming across to me as timid and non-confrontational.

@Town, don't give kgray a free pass. I don't see much of a vector behind her questions. I feel like she's swimming in place a bit, which could suggest that she doesn't have a puzzle to solve.

Sure, I'll do some more rereading and write up a more detailed list with reasons tomorrow. For now, here's what I've got:

Towny:
Jamie
damo
bozo

Town-ish:
worcej
xorxes
Flum
Rdrivera
Balki

Scum-ish:
pjandy
BunnyGo
Foxcastle
bobmcbob

Scummy:
Chaqa
emc

What I find interesting about this post is that it occurred after emc and Chaqa were already wagons D3, but she had not previously indicated that Chaqa and emc were her top scum reads. She questioned Chaqa a little earlier D3, but Chaqa was already a wagon then as well, and she hardly mentioned emc previously.

Later D3 she gives reasons for her scum reads and votes for Chaqa when emc is the lead wagon:

Okay, I'm trying to coherently explain my thoughts on people and it's a slow process. I started with emc and Chaqa because I think they're most likely to be scum and they're both currently wagons. I'll keep working on this, but in the meantime if anyone wants me to specifically address another read, let me know.

emc
Of the remaining lurkers, I find emc the most suspicious. He started the game with a pretty open-seeming tone and was joking around a lot, which initially could read as towny. But after a while it seems like those posts were intended to make him look like he was participating, because the few game-related posts he did have didn’t seem like they were based on anything. He simultaneously admits that Tem could be using a strategy that emc used when he was scum, and that Tem seems “less solid” but still apparently townreads Tem because he doesn’t vote for him. Instead he votes for Flum because… xD? And, as others have mentioned, appears to have been around at the end of the day but didn’t try to make his vote count. He doesn’t mention anything about worcej being a townread until after the day ends. It all just seems like he was trying to avoid voting for the person who ends up being lynched. Since Tem was town and since I think worcej is town too, scum emc could very well be trying to distance himself from the town lynch. Then night 1 he has a few more joke posts, mentions that he thinks worcej is town (or patient zero), and subtly digs at Flum again without giving a reason. Then he disappears, and all we’ve heard since is a promise to return.

Chaqa
Chaqa spends day one making excuses for why we shouldn’t read into his vote. He casts suspicion on xorxes and rdr but won’t vote for either of them. Calls day one a crapshoot and the votes arbitrary. Uses some “policy” to justify voting for emc. Has three posts brushing off Tem’s actions as not necessarily scummy. Votes for bozo, which he later claims was determined randomly. Near the end of the day, he says he doesn’t like the idea of lynching worcej day one and finally votes Tem. Not wanting to lynch worcej is a significant detour from his “anyone but me on day 1” outlook. He later says worcej is one of the few people he felt good about day 1. No indication of who else he felt good about, and why he felt confident in worcej day one despite his assertion that day one is useless. I get the feeling that Chaqa is protecting worcej and it doesn’t seem organic to me because of Chaqa’s insistence that day one doesn’t mean anything. So I think he has ulterior motives. I think that worcej is town, but if I’m wrong then I think Chaqa is very likely scum. If worcej is town, I could see a situation where Chaqa knows that worcej is town and is defending him either to make worcej feel more positively towards Chaqa or to get credit for defending town if worcej does get lynched. Since worcej was the second-largest wagon day 1, maybe Chaqa was counting on being able to defend worcej while worcej still got lynched so that Chaqa would look more towny.

The hammering of Vecna has been discussed a lot, but I think chaqa comes out of that looking very suspicious. I’ve pointed out the inconsistencies in his reasons for his end vote, and he shrugged that off. I think what bothers me as much as the inconsistencies is the fact that he tried so hard to make himself seem hesitant to end, and then was the deciding vote after all. It seems similar to what I think happened day one, where he wants to put plenty of “evidence” in the thread about why we shouldn't read into his vote. After all, he didn’t really want to end the day early, remember? He said so many times that it was a bad idea. But, most suspect to me is his attempt to shift the blame to Flum. Both days it seems like Chaqa is trying not to take responsibility for his votes.

I’m going to ##vote Chaqa.

Near EOD, she changes her vote to emc:

I'm not voting for Fox or Balki today. If Chaqa isn't happening, ##vote emc

Just before she changed her vote to emc, Foxcastle had changed his vote from emc to Chaqa. When Foxcastle asked here if she had seen his vote, she said she hadn't:

I'm not voting for Fox or Balki today. If Chaqa isn't happening, ##vote emc

Hm. Did you vote after you saw I had moved?

No, if you'd stay on Chaqa I'd move back. I just figured I should vote for my preference of emc vs bob if Chaqa isn't going to happen

This is interesting because it means she thought she was tying the vote between Bob and emc at 5. Also, she offered to change her vote back to Chaqa. That is a lot of effort to save Bob from the lynch when she had Bob in her scum reads also, and her scum reads of emc or Chaqa was new to D3.

[bozotheclown]

That D3 EOD exchange between kgray and Foxcastle makes Foxcastle look suspicious also. kgray and Foxcastle crossposted vote changes between emc and Chaqa with the apparent intention of getting either one lynched over Bob. When Foxcastle asked kgray about her vote, she said she would change back to Chaqa if Foxcastle kept his vote there. However, a few minutes passed and kgray did not change her vote, so Foxcastle changed his vote back to emc with the following:

Why would scum!EMC come back and vote xorxes when he's being scumread and not join a counterwagon? Why would town!EMC do that?

ugh. I don't understand you, Einstein. Makes me wonder if he's the mafia who doesn't know who his teammates are, TBH, and is just flailing around.

Huh. He did something similar as scum last game. There were better options to save himself and he didn't...

Hm. Okay, between Bob and EMC, it's ##VOTE EMC

I find this reason for his vote change questionable because it is not accurate that emc did "something similar as scum last game". emc voted one time on D1 of M53, and it was for BunnyGo, who was a counterwagon, and emc's vote for BunnyGo made the vote a 3 way tie, including emc and BunnyGo. So, I do not think you could say there were "better options to save himself". Foxcastle's vote for emc tied the vote between emc and Bob with 4 minutes to go.

I do not know how likely it is that Foxcastle and kgray would communicate like that as scum partners, but after crossposting, maybe Foxcastle thought it would look more suspicious to just ignore it. Then, after kgray answered Foxcastle, Foxcastle did ignore her and came up with an unrelated reason to change his vote back to emc.

[damo666]

will vote for Fox or kgray

##vote Fox for now

No elaboration?

See #3437

[bozotheclown]

Looking at damo's voting, he voted for Fluminator D1 and D2 without giving any reason that I could find. Then, N2, he posted this:

Wild guess at scum team:

Flum EMC Chaqius & someone else (pandy?)

I could not find any explanation for this "wild guess", except for this from D2:

How about this for a theory?

There is always an example of busing on day 1.

Top 3 wagons were TvTvT ( worcej the only unknown but widely townread).

Xorxes never busses.

Hence EMC and Flum are a scumpair.

Voila!

At the beginning of D3, damo's "wild guess" for scum had become his top scum reads:

Willing to lynch Flum, emc or Chaqa

damo proceeded to vote for all three during D3, ending on emc, and actively pushed to get emc lynched at EOD:

Back to emc folks

1 more switch required

[damo666]

Speaking of awkward phase shifts, I'll be busy in meetings and such until after EoN. If I die, everyone should know what I'm thinking at this point.

You won't be NK'd. Nor will I, nor will Xorxes, nor will Fox.

This is a very weird post. The Fox statement seems to be because damo scumreads Fox? Why Xorxes? You scum read him too? Why are you not willing to vote him today then? Why wasn't Chaq going to die? Why were you wrong? Who did you think was going to get NKd?

I've already addressed this. I assumed scum would kill somebody widely townread. They didn't.

[damo666]

I’ve put in a fair amount of effort over the last few days. I have the impression that the more effort I put in, the more people think I am try hard scum. The more reasons I point to why the D3 EMC voters are likely scum, voting their win condition, the more people think “well, Balki must have voted for Town’s win condition as part of a clever trap.”

I’m going to dial it back. I’m not getting a return on my investment of time.

@Town, go solve the puzzle. I’ll answer questions directed to me. And I’ll keep voting for Fox until someone else wants to join me.

What? And then you'll move off? What are you trying to say?

[damo666]

noob scum (from what I've gathered, most scum) are scared of smart, talented, town players. Xorxes, Flum, Balki have reputations as that (I've only played with Xorxes before, but I've gathered from reading that everyone who knows them respects their abilities).

So...they are prime targets for scum to kill. Why aren't they dead? One argument is they ARE scum. One argument is that the scum team is so scared of the watcher, that they are avoiding them so the watcher doesn't catch them.

My post is: a noob scum team would certainly be targeting them, AND would not be thinking about the watcher so much to avoid them. So it is unlikely to be an all noob scum team.

So what conclusions are you drawing about the "noobiness" of the scumteam? And why are you ignoring the fact that the scumteam can talk to each other? You and Fox have both made arguments about the composition of the scumteam that implies that they can't communicate with each other. What's the difference, in your mind, of a scumteam (besides PZ) made up of one "noob" and two "good players" vs a team made of two "noobs" and one "good player"?

If you think the scumteam is unlikely to be all-noob, why does it matter if there are any noobs at all? Surely the experienced players would control the night kill and general strategy, and the noob would have very little say in what happened?

I just don't get what the point of all this analysis is.

The point is to answer this question:

Why are Xorxes, Flum, Balki still alive?

The analysis is a long way of coming to the conclusion: probably because at least one of them is scum.

It would take a very brave and clever scum team with none of them on it to leave all 3 alive so that I (and many others) would be thinking this.

Flum Fox rdr fits the bill

[damo666]

@bozo

All the points you make about me are valid but I ain't scum.

How do you rank Fox, rdr, kgray and Jamie in terms of scumminess.

There must be at least 1 scum here, probably 2 and just possibly 3.