M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[BunnyGo]

You don’t get me, Bunny.

You and I are looking for different things.

What are you looking for? I'm looking for scum. And I'm looking for people to explain to me how I can understand things. BOTH so I can understand their accusations, AND so I can see if I like how they are thinking. Usually you've been very good at this. But those posts don't show me thought.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I’ve put in a fair amount of effort over the last few days. I have the impression that the more effort I put in, the more people think I am try hard scum. The more reasons I point to why the D3 EMC voters are likely scum, voting their win condition, the more people think “well, Balki must have voted for Town’s win condition as part of a clever trap.”

I’m going to dial it back. I’m not getting a return on my investment of time.

@Town, go solve the puzzle. I’ll answer questions directed to me. And I’ll keep voting for Fox until someone else wants to join me.

[kgray]

YOU on the other hand (for comparison of a D3 EMC voter) zero in on Chaq and EMC and push hard for anyone but your scumread of Bob. So you couldn't be wrong. But you could try to push things onto the 2 town wagons. Your votes don't jump as much, but I don't care. His logic was sounder, and less manipulative.

Can you expand on this more please? Where do you see me pushing for "anyone but my scumread of Bob"? At the time I did scumread Bob, but I had a stronger scumread of emc and Chaqa. I never pushed for anyone besides my scumreads.

And I absolutely was wrong. I voted to lynch town over scum. That's as wrong as it gets.

[BunnyGo]

Oh, I have a theory about you specifically, being a a new player. (Not judging your skills, just your newness to this group.) I think that makes it more important that Balki target the unusual suspects for the NK, because with Sulit lurking and then Bob lurking, and with you being new, it was even more important that he create plausible deniability about why he and Xorxes hadn't been NK'd as game goes on, because if he and Xorxes go down, their game is left in the hands of a lurker and an unknown quantity.

Fox, this is not a very good argument. There are so many reasons why the scumteam wouldn't target "obvious" night kills. Do you really think this is the most likely explanation?

You can't possibly think that it is a Balki/Xorx scum team.

Why on Earth did both of us bus Bob? We would have had an easy, clean victory by lynching EMC D3.

This is bananas.

This is also true.

[kgray]

I always feel judged by hypothetical god thread people spectating at this point in the game if I'm wrong, but I just don't think I can consider 4d chess moves right now, when separate distinct scumtells all point to at least one of Rdrivera and Fox being scum.
I'll start with ##Vote Rdrivera

If yiu want to waste the last myslynch on me go ahead.
I am pretty sure at least one of you, Xorxes and Balki are scum, probably two (and are keeping the other alive as a cover). There is no possible scumteam that will lynch Brain, Worcej and Chaqa before you three if you are all town.

This is probably true. Even noobs would pick up on the praise thrown at them. In fact, a noob scum team would not even be thinking hard about avoiding the watcher, and go for them for sure...

What does this mean, Bunny? Why do I feel like you're trying to subtly imply all kinds of nonsense with this post? Please explain what you're saying here.

[BunnyGo]

YOU on the other hand (for comparison of a D3 EMC voter) zero in on Chaq and EMC and push hard for anyone but your scumread of Bob. So you couldn't be wrong. But you could try to push things onto the 2 town wagons. Your votes don't jump as much, but I don't care. His logic was sounder, and less manipulative.

Can you expand on this more please? Where do you see me pushing for "anyone but my scumread of Bob"? At the time I did scumread Bob, but I had a stronger scumread of emc and Chaqa. I never pushed for anyone besides my scumreads.

And I absolutely was wrong. I voted to lynch town over scum. That's as wrong as it gets.

Yes. That's my point. You get to now say "Oh look! I scum read a scum! Woo hoo!" but at the same time you got to protect him with big posts that spent a lot of time explaining why you scum read EMC and Chaq and then short comments "Oh, I scum read Bob, but"

It didn't seem like you were challenging your assumptions or your positions, or had any doubt. It seems (in retrospect) like you *knew* Bob was scum. Like you were distancing yourself so you could say "look, I called it!" but you got to say it quietly while attacking two likely town lynches.

And unless I've missed something major in your ISO (which is not unlikely) you've taken very few stands. Mostly you ask good smart noob questions. So the fact that the big stand you took was there, it looks bad.

I hope this answers your question why rdr's voting pattern doesn't matter to me as much in a scum read of someone voting for EMC on d3.

[BunnyGo]

If yiu want to waste the last myslynch on me go ahead.
I am pretty sure at least one of you, Xorxes and Balki are scum, probably two (and are keeping the other alive as a cover). There is no possible scumteam that will lynch Brain, Worcej and Chaqa before you three if you are all town.

This is probably true. Even noobs would pick up on the praise thrown at them. In fact, a noob scum team would not even be thinking hard about avoiding the watcher, and go for them for sure...

What does this mean, Bunny? Why do I feel like you're trying to subtly imply all kinds of nonsense with this post? Please explain what you're saying here.

noob scum (from what I've gathered, most scum) are scared of smart, talented, town players. Xorxes, Flum, Balki have reputations as that (I've only played with Xorxes before, but I've gathered from reading that everyone who knows them respects their abilities).

So...they are prime targets for scum to kill. Why aren't they dead? One argument is they ARE scum. One argument is that the scum team is so scared of the watcher, that they are avoiding them so the watcher doesn't catch them.

My post is: a noob scum team would certainly be targeting them, AND would not be thinking about the watcher so much to avoid them. So it is unlikely to be an all noob scum team.

[kgray]

YOU on the other hand (for comparison of a D3 EMC voter) zero in on Chaq and EMC and push hard for anyone but your scumread of Bob. So you couldn't be wrong. But you could try to push things onto the 2 town wagons. Your votes don't jump as much, but I don't care. His logic was sounder, and less manipulative.

Can you expand on this more please? Where do you see me pushing for "anyone but my scumread of Bob"? At the time I did scumread Bob, but I had a stronger scumread of emc and Chaqa. I never pushed for anyone besides my scumreads.

And I absolutely was wrong. I voted to lynch town over scum. That's as wrong as it gets.

Yes. That's my point. You get to now say "Oh look! I scum read a scum! Woo hoo!" but at the same time you got to protect him with big posts that spent a lot of time explaining why you scum read EMC and Chaq and then short comments "Oh, I scum read Bob, but"

It didn't seem like you were challenging your assumptions or your positions, or had any doubt. It seems (in retrospect) like you *knew* Bob was scum. Like you were distancing yourself so you could say "look, I called it!" but you got to say it quietly while attacking two likely town lynches.

And unless I've missed something major in your ISO (which is not unlikely) you've taken very few stands. Mostly you ask good smart noob questions. So the fact that the big stand you took was there, it looks bad.

I hope this answers your question why rdr's voting pattern doesn't matter to me as much in a scum read of someone voting for EMC on d3.

I am not saying I scumread a scum. I'm saying I thought a scum could be scum but was more convinced a town was scum. I had tons of doubt at the time. Sorry if I don't post every stream-of-conscious thought I have.

If you think the "big stand" I've taken was voting emc over bob then you're not reading this game.

I'm arguing to lynch someone on the emc wagon. That I was a part of. If you scumread me for voting emc then I hope you at least explain why you think I'm the scummiest of the people on that wagon.

[kgray]

This is probably true. Even noobs would pick up on the praise thrown at them. In fact, a noob scum team would not even be thinking hard about avoiding the watcher, and go for them for sure...

What does this mean, Bunny? Why do I feel like you're trying to subtly imply all kinds of nonsense with this post? Please explain what you're saying here.

noob scum (from what I've gathered, most scum) are scared of smart, talented, town players. Xorxes, Flum, Balki have reputations as that (I've only played with Xorxes before, but I've gathered from reading that everyone who knows them respects their abilities).

So...they are prime targets for scum to kill. Why aren't they dead? One argument is they ARE scum. One argument is that the scum team is so scared of the watcher, that they are avoiding them so the watcher doesn't catch them.

My post is: a noob scum team would certainly be targeting them, AND would not be thinking about the watcher so much to avoid them. So it is unlikely to be an all noob scum team.

So what conclusions are you drawing about the "noobiness" of the scumteam? And why are you ignoring the fact that the scumteam can talk to each other? You and Fox have both made arguments about the composition of the scumteam that implies that they can't communicate with each other. What's the difference, in your mind, of a scumteam (besides PZ) made up of one "noob" and two "good players" vs a team made of two "noobs" and one "good player"?

If you think the scumteam is unlikely to be all-noob, why does it matter if there are any noobs at all? Surely the experienced players would control the night kill and general strategy, and the noob would have very little say in what happened?

I just don't get what the point of all this analysis is.

[BunnyGo]

Oh, and I STILL don’t understand the rdr wagon. Can anyone enlighten me why he’s the leading candidate from the D3 EMC wagon?

Why do you think he is the leading candidate? Do you think he is town?

I don't know.

Yes. see my previous post comparing him to kgray (damo is also scummier than he is for all that EOD "one more vote!" stuff)

[BunnyGo]

What does this mean, Bunny? Why do I feel like you're trying to subtly imply all kinds of nonsense with this post? Please explain what you're saying here.

noob scum (from what I've gathered, most scum) are scared of smart, talented, town players. Xorxes, Flum, Balki have reputations as that (I've only played with Xorxes before, but I've gathered from reading that everyone who knows them respects their abilities).

So...they are prime targets for scum to kill. Why aren't they dead? One argument is they ARE scum. One argument is that the scum team is so scared of the watcher, that they are avoiding them so the watcher doesn't catch them.

My post is: a noob scum team would certainly be targeting them, AND would not be thinking about the watcher so much to avoid them. So it is unlikely to be an all noob scum team.

So what conclusions are you drawing about the "noobiness" of the scumteam? And why are you ignoring the fact that the scumteam can talk to each other? You and Fox have both made arguments about the composition of the scumteam that implies that they can't communicate with each other. What's the difference, in your mind, of a scumteam (besides PZ) made up of one "noob" and two "good players" vs a team made of two "noobs" and one "good player"?

If you think the scumteam is unlikely to be all-noob, why does it matter if there are any noobs at all? Surely the experienced players would control the night kill and general strategy, and the noob would have very little say in what happened?

I just don't get what the point of all this analysis is.

The point is to answer this question:

Why are Xorxes, Flum, Balki still alive?

The analysis is a long way of coming to the conclusion: probably because at least one of them is scum.

It would take a very brave and clever scum team with none of them on it to leave all 3 alive so that I (and many others) would be thinking this.

[BunnyGo]

Chaqa's reasons was he was off the main wagons day 1.
Rdrivera's was how Xorx handled the Vecna hammer and meta
I missed Fox's and EMC's reasons.
I guess EMC's reasons go to the grave with him.

One of Fox's reasons was that I made a couple of jokes.

This is pretty disingenuous. Your EOD2 reads fairly scummy.

[kgray]

Okay Bunny. Do you think that all three of Balki, Flum and xorxes are scum?

[BunnyGo]

Oh, and I STILL don’t understand the rdr wagon. Can anyone enlighten me why he’s the leading candidate from the D3 EMC wagon?

Last time you asked I gave a summary of the case from MPOV
Do you not read what I post

Shit, you did that's right. Sorry about that. I've been noticing Fox, and stopped seeing you. Damn F-ers. Hard to keep track of two of you F-ers.

[BunnyGo]

Okay Bunny. Do you think that all three of Balki, Flum and xorxes are scum?

That would be incredible. It would mean all 3 bussed Bob (granted the traitor wouldn't know unless he scanned Bob or EMC). No, I don't believe all 3 are. I'm not even saying 2 are. I'm saying there's a good argument that at least 1 is.

[BunnyGo]

Here's an EoD vote history of everyone still alive. The numbering (1st, 2nd, 3rd etc) indicates the ranking of the wagon they ended the day on:

Balki Bartokomous:
D1 Worcej (Town, 2nd) / D2 Vecna (Town, 1st) / D3 Bob (Scum, 1st) / D4 EMC (Town, 1st)

bozotheclown:
D1 Temasek (Town, 1st) / D2 Vecna (Town, 1st) / D3 Bob (Scum, 1st) / D4 EMC (Town, 1st)

BunnyGo:
D1 Worcej (Town, 2nd) / D2 Bo_Sox (Town, 3rd) / D3 Bob (Scum, 1st) / D4 EMC (Town, 1st)

damo666:
D1 Temasek (Town, 1st) / D2 Vecna (Town, 1st) / D3 EMC (Town, 2nd) / D4 EMC (Town, 1st)

Fluminator:
D1 Worcej (Town, 2nd) / D2 Vecna (Town, 1st) / D3 Bob (Scum, 1st) / EMC (Town, 1st)

Foxcastle:
D1 Worcej (Town, 2nd) / D2 Vecna (Town, 1st) / D3 Bob (Scum, 1st) / D4 EMC (Town, 1st)

Jamiet99uk:
D1 Temasek (Town, 1st) / D2 Bo_Sox (Town, 3rd) / D3 EMC (Town, 2nd) / D4 EMC (Town, 1st)

kgray:
D1 Temasek (Town, 1st) / D2 Vecna (Town, 1st) / D3 EMC (Town, 2nd) / D4 EMC (Town, 1st)

rdrivera2005:
D1 Temasek (Town, 1st) / D2 Pjandy (Town, 2nd) / D3 EMC (Town, 2nd) / D4 Xorxes (Town, 2nd)

xorxes:
D1 Chaqa (Town, 5th) / D2 Vecna (Town, 1st) / D3 Bob (Scum, 1st) / D4 EMC (Town, 1st)


OBSERVATIONS:

Bozo has finished EoD on the lead wagon every time. Certainly he is not afraid of being held accountable.

Rdrivera has ended the day on the lead wagon the least often - only once out of four days. He is the only person who only finished on the lead wagon just once.

I don't know if this means anything in either case but it's the first thing I noticed.

Wait a minute. How do you know I'm town?

That's a really interesting potential scumslip.

[kgray]

Okay Bunny. Do you think that all three of Balki, Flum and xorxes are scum?

That would be incredible. It would mean all 3 bussed Bob (granted the traitor wouldn't know unless he scanned Bob or EMC). No, I don't believe all 3 are. I'm not even saying 2 are. I'm saying there's a good argument that at least 1 is.

Yes, I agree. I think it would be incredible if they were all scum.

So, if Balki, Flum and xorxes are so good at this game, and they're not all scum, why are they all on roughly the same page right now?

[BunnyGo]

Town
Jamiet99uk
damo666
bozotheclown
rdrivera2005
kgray
xorxes
BunnyGo
Foxcastle
Chaqa
Balki Bartokomous
Fluminator
e.m.c^42
Scum

This was the last time he gave an inclination onto your alignment, so he wasn't strongly town reading you yesterday.

Nice research (quickly done too).

[BunnyGo]

Okay Bunny. Do you think that all three of Balki, Flum and xorxes are scum?

That would be incredible. It would mean all 3 bussed Bob (granted the traitor wouldn't know unless he scanned Bob or EMC). No, I don't believe all 3 are. I'm not even saying 2 are. I'm saying there's a good argument that at least 1 is.

Yes, I agree. I think it would be incredible if they were all scum.

So, if Balki, Flum and xorxes are so good at this game, and they're not all scum, why are they all on roughly the same page right now?

I don't understand your question.

[BunnyGo]

This is about where I am at the moment:

TOWN
Jamiet99uk
kgray
damo666
xorxes
bozotheclown
Fluminator
rdrivera2005
Foxcastle
BunnyGo
Balki Bartokomous
SCUM


I'm much less sure of my townread on Rdrivera than I was.

I'd like to see Balki vs Fox today, wagon wise, as I fear their exchanges could all be theatre.

What happened in the last night that the only real movement was kgray is your strongest townread now (from scumlean before) and I went from next to Xorxes to a huge scumread?