M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[kgray]

I just can't believe your logic because I know I am not scum. I just don't know if you are tunneling or you are actively trying to setup the two final myslynches.

You don't think this logic is worth considering when it comes to Fox?

Like I said many times before, I don't put much weight on voting on Bob or not as the main reason to scumread people. For me the right scum play was bussing Bob, he will be lynched one way or another and scum knows it. I find weird good players like Flum and Balki pushing that hard that everybody voting Bob is town

Okay, but you don't think the timing of Fox's votes looks suspicious? Even Fox said he agrees it looks bad.

[rdrivera2005]

You've been scum before. Watchers, Trackers, Cops, Doctors -- of course this plays a role in the NK.

Yes, but we don't have any of them other then the Watcher. Even a 1 x 1 with the Watcher isn't a bad deal for scum at this point , I think.

Are you kidding?!

A 1 for 1 with the Watcher is a good deal for scum? Why on Earth? You are saying scum would rather get caught making their night kill so that they can know who Watcher is?

I didn't say it's a good deal. I said it isn't the end of the world for scum, that they will choose to avoid you and Xorxes and Flum at all costs.

[rdrivera2005]

You don't think this logic is worth considering when it comes to Fox?

Like I said many times before, I don't put much weight on voting on Bob or not as the main reason to scumread people. For me the right scum play was bussing Bob, he will be lynched one way or another and scum knows it. I find weird good players like Flum and Balki pushing that hard that everybody voting Bob is town

Okay, but you don't think the timing of Fox's votes looks suspicious? Even Fox said he agrees it looks bad.

Yes, it looks bad and the timing of my votes look bad too.

[Fluminator]

I suspect Chaqa's erratic and "too scummy to be scum" play made the mafia think he WAS the watcher. And his post about how Balki is softing watcher could easily be seen as a watcheresque statement I think.

If that's what he was going for all game (to eat a nightkill like that) then maybe I rescind my statements on him that he's bad lmao.

[Fluminator]

Rdrivera, can you just walk me through the thought process that led you to believe Xorx was a better lynch than EMC day 4?

[Foxcastle]

Fox, this is not a very good argument. There are so many reasons why the scumteam wouldn't target "obvious" night kills. Do you really think this is the most likely explanation?

I did say "theory." At some point, you have to walk the line between "everything is WIFOM, we can never know anything" and "this unprovable theory is absolutely true."

Given that this is a fairly novel approach for the scumteam to take, I think it makes sense to think about what conditions would have changed. One of the conditions most likely to lead to that response, I think, is what I described above.

This really seems a lot like you're trying to come up with reasons to justify why I could be scum, rather than suspecting I'm scum based on anything I've done. I honestly can't believe that at this stage in the game, with everything we've learned, you're considering this seriously.

Uh, no. I am obviously not trying to come up with a reason to justify why you could be scum. If I were doing that, I'd be going through your history looking for things to scumread you for. I am exploring a possibility that fits a variety of patterns we've seen in this game, and you just happen to fit in those patterns.

[kgray]

Like I said many times before, I don't put much weight on voting on Bob or not as the main reason to scumread people. For me the right scum play was bussing Bob, he will be lynched one way or another and scum knows it. I find weird good players like Flum and Balki pushing that hard that everybody voting Bob is town

Okay, but you don't think the timing of Fox's votes looks suspicious? Even Fox said he agrees it looks bad.

Yes, it looks bad and the timing of my votes look bad too.

So are you saying that because your votes look bad and you know you're town, you don't think we should suspect Fox because his votes look bad?

[bozotheclown]

Among the D3 emc voters, it seems damo and kgray are not getting much attention, although they were the only 2 who did not vote for Bob at any time D3. damo was actively trying to get emc lynched over Bob at EOD, something I have pointed out he has been willing to do before as scum.

##VOTE damo

I think Damo is a worthy vote. But I don't think "never voted for Bob" is a good reason. Like I said in my earlier response to you -- I think that "distancing" is very likely behavior from Scum on Day 3. Everyone had flexibility to move around, without many fixed or committed views on the two generally lurky players. So I think the votes on Bob, and then the votes off of Bob when it counted, for Foxy and rdrivera, makes it more likely that Fox/RdRivera are scum.

That is not the typical bussing style of Foxcastle or rdrivera, especially with a player as suspect as Bob.

[BunnyGo]

Hi all, skimmed to catch up between meetings.

RIP Chaq.

I agree with Damo’s statement about kgray. And bozo’s. And yet they both chose to pressure their other read. She keeps getting a pass. So for now:

##VOTE KGR (that feels almost soviet)

I’ll be on to actually scum hunt and discuss later.

[BunnyGo]

Oh, and I STILL don’t understand the rdr wagon. Can anyone enlighten me why he’s the leading candidate from the D3 EMC wagon?

[kgray]

I did say "theory." At some point, you have to walk the line between "everything is WIFOM, we can never know anything" and "this unprovable theory is absolutely true."

Given that this is a fairly novel approach for the scumteam to take, I think it makes sense to think about what conditions would have changed. One of the conditions most likely to lead to that response, I think, is what I described above.

This really seems a lot like you're trying to come up with reasons to justify why I could be scum, rather than suspecting I'm scum based on anything I've done. I honestly can't believe that at this stage in the game, with everything we've learned, you're considering this seriously.

Uh, no. I am obviously not trying to come up with a reason to justify why you could be scum. If I were doing that, I'd be going through your history looking for things to scumread you for. I am exploring a possibility that fits a variety of patterns we've seen in this game, and you just happen to fit in those patterns.

Well, you implied that you think I could be Balki's scum teammate because of your POE. Then your reason for why it could make sense is that I'm new, which would somehow make Balki more likely to.... keep good players around so he doesn't look suspicious? Or to avoid the watcher?

I don't know how me being new has anything to do with that. If I were Balki's teammate, how in the world does that make Balki more likely to try to stay alive and avoid being caught than any situation where Balki is scum I am not his teammate?

[bozotheclown]

I'm not voting for Fox or Balki today. If Chaqa isn't happening, ##vote emc

Foxcastle and Balki had one vote between them 9 minutes before EOD, why did you point out you would not be voting for them? Why did you think Chaqa wasn't happening? Why did you pick emc over Bob?

[BunnyGo]

Oh, and I was going to go back and review the xorxes push from yesterday. Why is nobody pushing it again? What was the reasoning yesterday? Is kgray correct it’s all meta, or is there more?

[Fluminator]

Oh, and I was going to go back and review the xorxes push from yesterday. Why is nobody pushing it again? What was the reasoning yesterday? Is kgray correct it’s all meta, or is there more?

I'm still down to hear a well thought out case on Xorx by someone.

[bozotheclown]

Oh, and I was going to go back and review the xorxes push from yesterday. Why is nobody pushing it again? What was the reasoning yesterday? Is kgray correct it’s all meta, or is there more?

2 of the 4 D4 xorxes voters are gone.

[Fluminator]

Chaqa's reasons was he was off the main wagons day 1.
Rdrivera's was how Xorx handled the Vecna hammer and meta
I missed Fox's and EMC's reasons.
I guess EMC's reasons go to the grave with him.

[kgray]

I'm not voting for Fox or Balki today. If Chaqa isn't happening, ##vote emc

Foxcastle and Balki had one vote between them 9 minutes before EOD, why did you point out you would not be voting for them? Why did you think Chaqa wasn't happening? Why did you pick emc over Bob?

1. People were talking about starting wagons on Fox and Balki and I thought Chaqa and emc were more likely to be scum than either of them. I was very uncertain about Balki and Fox because of their constant clashing with each other, which I didn't find helpful, and I was not able to decide between them which was scummier.

2. Because bob and emc were both ahead of Chaqa and it seemed like it would stay that way - this is when I cross-posted with Fox, and I mentioned that if he would stay on Chaqa then I'd go back. But the feel I got was that it was going to be emc or bob.

3. I went with emc because I had a stronger scumread of him. I also thought bob could be scum but emc seemed to be lurking more strategically than bob and I just thought it was more likely that he was scum.

[bozotheclown]

Oh, and I was going to go back and review the xorxes push from yesterday. Why is nobody pushing it again? What was the reasoning yesterday? Is kgray correct it’s all meta, or is there more?

I'm still down to hear a well thought out case on Xorx by someone.

You could reread Chaqa's case, and maybe speculate on why Chaqa is no longer here.

[Fluminator]

Already did both

[xorxes]

Oh, and I STILL don’t understand the rdr wagon. Can anyone enlighten me why he’s the leading candidate from the D3 EMC wagon?

Why do you think he is the leading candidate? Do you think he is town?