M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[xorxes]

Normally I save these long stream of conscious posts for the God thead, but there's a decent chance I die anyway today after messing up the EMC lynch and being potentially discredited, so I just want to get as much out there before tomorrow.

Why would messing up make you more likely to be killed?

[xorxes]

Look at that Day 1 count. Xorxes is definitely scum.

Because I wasn't there at EOD? That was the last day before I started working from home, so EOD time was impossible for me.

If you're town, this would be one of the only games I've ever seen where scum were all on the main wagons.

All? One didn't vote, one didn't know where the others were voting. Only two of them could vote to distance themselves from each other, so I expect one was voting Tem and the other was voting worcej, and pz could be anywhere.

[Fluminator]

Normally I save these long stream of conscious posts for the God thead, but there's a decent chance I die anyway today after messing up the EMC lynch and being potentially discredited, so I just want to get as much out there before tomorrow.

Why would messing up make you more likely to be killed?

Because I'm likely discredited and thus people will be less likely to heed or consider my reads postmortem. I'm a safe kill.

Unless I can gain my credibility back before then

[Balki Bartokomous]

Normally I save these long stream of conscious posts for the God thead, but there's a decent chance I die anyway today after messing up the EMC lynch and being potentially discredited, so I just want to get as much out there before tomorrow.

Why would messing up make you more likely to be killed?

Because I'm likely discredited and thus people will be less likely to heed or consider my reads postmortem. I'm a safe kill.

Unless I can gain my credibility back before then

Oooo, is this a determined, tryhard Flum? I'm not sure I've ever seen such a creature. I'm intrigued.

[kgray]

It feels hard to believe Rdrivera and Fox would also both be scum because it seems to easy if that's the case, with everything lining up against them.

But even last eod I find them suspicious. They were happy to vote EMC eod 3, but suddenly heavily resisted voting him eod 4?

Considering a brunt of the case against them is that bussing didn't happen, you would think they would be very interesting in clearing up whether it was S vs. S so the entire narrative making them look bad would be squashed and people would start looking at other people.
It's almost like they wanted it to remain up in the air when it looked like he might get lynched.

This is a decent point. But I don't think the majority of the case on rdr and Fox is that bussing didn't happen. At least, that's not my case for them, and I think that anyone who is using the assumption that no scum bussed bob as the main point against rdr and Fox are either lazy or scummy. It is actually shocking to me how willing some people are to assume that the whole bob wagon is town.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I think my BunnyGo/damo theory still fits. kgray's vote switch from Chaqa to emc looks suspicious, but I have no idea how likely she is to avoid bussing. rdrivera or Foxcastle could have made an exception to their hard bussing to try to save Bob, especially with emc under a lot of suspicion.

I sincerely disagree that Bunny could be Scum (excluding Patient Zero).

It was a very important day for mafia. They were winning. Two mislynches in a row. Town was off track and flailing around. And Scum had at least one really strong counter wagon (EMC, and maybe Chaqa too).

To make matters even more ripe, nobody had much in the thread anchoring them to Bob or EMC, right? Both were low-volume posters. There were plenty of available easy reasons to go to either wagon. Scum!Bunny could have freely and easily voted to lynch EMC. No questions asked. Everyone had freedom because those two wagons were basically lurker wagons of equal suspicion.

Under these circumstances, with a dynamic, 7-6 vote that honestly I still thought was going to flip back the other way right up until the last second, I do not expect a bus. It was too important and too easy for scum to win that vote. I don't believe they would hand that vote to town when they didn't have to do so. And they didn't.

I encourage people to focus on the folks to voted for EMC on Day 3.

OK, but as I pointed out, damo and kgray are the only remaining players who did not vote for Bob at some point D3, so unless they are the 2 mafia who knew Bob was mafia, at least one mafia was knowingly bussing Bob at some point D3, even though they may not have ended voting for him. Do you think it is more likely someone bussed Bob during D3 but switched to emc by EOD than someone bussed Bob and kept their vote on him? Or, do you think damo and kgray are the most likely mafia who knew Bob was mafia?

So, let's talk terminology for a moment, because it actually matters to the substance.

"Bussing," to me, means voting to kill. Throwing someone under the bus. If someone was scum, who knew Bob was scum, and was one of the 7 voting to kill him, that is a "bus." They threw Bob under the bus strategically to try to look more town.

I don't think that happened, and I think we should play the averages here and assume it didn't happen, at least for the next vote.

"Distancing," to me, is actively trying to put stuff in the thread between you and your scum teammate to make it look, once one of you flips, like the other guy is not town. But it stops short of bussing, because you really don't want to vote to kill the person you are distancing from. You are just trying to essentially put little clues in the thread that say "Hey look, me and Bob aren't on the same team," even though you really want to avoid Bob being lynched.

I would expect some distancing on Day 3, or I at least wouldn't be surprised by it. Fox's vote pattern fits the classic profile for distancing. Cast a vote without any push or case for your scumbuddy, but then if that scumbuddy actually gets in trouble and gets close to being lynched, try to save them.

I don't expect Day 3 Bussing. I do expect Day 3 Distancing.

[Chaqa]

I think my BunnyGo/damo theory still fits. kgray's vote switch from Chaqa to emc looks suspicious, but I have no idea how likely she is to avoid bussing. rdrivera or Foxcastle could have made an exception to their hard bussing to try to save Bob, especially with emc under a lot of suspicion.

I sincerely disagree that Bunny could be Scum (excluding Patient Zero).

It was a very important day for mafia. They were winning. Two mislynches in a row. Town was off track and flailing around. And Scum had at least one really strong counter wagon (EMC, and maybe Chaqa too).

To make matters even more ripe, nobody had much in the thread anchoring them to Bob or EMC, right? Both were low-volume posters. There were plenty of available easy reasons to go to either wagon. Scum!Bunny could have freely and easily voted to lynch EMC. No questions asked. Everyone had freedom because those two wagons were basically lurker wagons of equal suspicion.

Under these circumstances, with a dynamic, 7-6 vote that honestly I still thought was going to flip back the other way right up until the last second, I do not expect a bus. It was too important and too easy for scum to win that vote. I don't believe they would hand that vote to town when they didn't have to do so. And they didn't.

I encourage people to focus on the folks to voted for EMC on Day 3.

With the *certainty* rather than suspicion that EMC was town, I'm beginning to come around on Balki's line of thinking. Let's see how the night goes. Maybe if the Watcher is in that group and claims we can figure this out.

[kgray]

@Balki is the main reason you think bob wasn't bussed because you think scum wanted to avoid any scum lynches?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki is the main reason you think bob wasn't bussed because you think scum wanted to avoid any scum lynches?

A few reasons why I don’t expect a bus there: (PZ excluded)

(1) Scum was winning.
(2) Town was flailing around and did not seem to have strong leads. We were mostly killing town lurkers.
(3) The vote was changing frantically and it was not at all clear who would flip.
(4) Because the leading wagons were low-content posters, scum would not have had very committed positions on either leading wagon, so they were not compelled by prior reads to do one thing or another. Either vote was completely defensible. They had freedom to vote for their game agenda. It was S v T. So why not just lynch town? I expect that is what they tried to do.

[Chaqa]

That said, he is beginning to make me wonder if he actually is just... (trying to say it nicely) playing subpar this game.
I know he's often a smart person, and I feel like he's gone into "too scummy to be scum" a little too hard. And he was so over the top theatrical about the EMC lynch before it happened. So yeah, I don't think I'm ready to not scumread him yet. Every day there just mounting evidence in my eyes.

I legitimately have had little time to think into this game. I've been working crazy hours (even from home :/) and working on projects around my place, plus hiking on the weekends.

It's been a bit crazy.

[rdrivera2005]

One of rivera or Fox is scum. I think rivera, but I could be wrong. They could both be scum if one is patient zero, but I doubt they are both the "knowing" scum.

Let's say one is town though. How on earth does the one who is town not suspect the other one?

I am town and I suspected Fox, but I thought his exchange with you could be TxT. Fox had many chances to retract from fighting you (as I expected him to do, even asked him) and he kept pushing hard.

[kgray]

@Balki is the main reason you think bob wasn't bussed because you think scum wanted to avoid any scum lynches?

A few reasons why I don’t expect a bus there: (PZ excluded)

(1) Scum was winning.
(2) Town was flailing around and did not seem to have strong leads. We were mostly killing town lurkers.
(3) The vote was changing frantically and it was not at all clear who would flip.
(4) Because the leading wagons were low-content posters, scum would not have had very committed positions on either leading wagon, so they were not compelled by prior reads to do one thing or another. Either vote was completely defensible. They had freedom to vote for their game agenda. It was S v T. So why not just lynch town? I expect that is what they tried to do.

Okay, those are valid points. But, the whole reason for bussing is to gain town credit, right? So why do you think it's so unlikely that at least one person wasn't trying to go deeper undercover? Here are some reasons I think scum wouldn't mind bussing here:

(1) Scum was winning - they have numbers on their side, and could afford to lose a member.
(2) Someone like Bob, who looked likely to be lynched at some point regardless and was probably not going to be able to really influence the game in a pro-scum way later, seems like a prime bussing target. Especially if the scum doing the bussing is largely townread, or good at convincing people to vote the way they want them to, or just a "stronger" player in general. It would be worth it to sacrifice bob for that scum player to make it further in the game.
(3) sulit/bob didn't participate much and didn't have a lot of connections. So even though we get info from the EOD, we don't really gain too much info from their earlier play. Sulit/Bob never even cast a vote until day 3! One of the more convincing argument anyone came up with was Flum's idea that their teammates wouldn't interact with them, and that is not much to go on. So bob being revealed as scum probably tells town MUCH less than a different scum lynch would.

[rdrivera2005]

It feels hard to believe Rdrivera and Fox would also both be scum because it seems to easy if that's the case, with everything lining up against them.

But even last eod I find them suspicious. They were happy to vote EMC eod 3, but suddenly heavily resisted voting him eod 4?

Considering a brunt of the case against them is that bussing didn't happen, you would think they would be very interesting in clearing up whether it was S vs. S so the entire narrative making them look bad would be squashed and people would start looking at other people.
It's almost like they wanted it to remain up in the air when it looked like he might get lynched.

If I change my vote you scumread me for changing, if I keep my vote you scumread me for not changing. It's confirmation bias I guess.

[Fluminator]

I agree with Balki that on paper, it's a pretty bad play for scum to through with bussing on day 3 in that situation, especially with the shield of wifom to hide behind and very uncertain candidates. However, there might be a deep threat, and can't be entirely ignored.

I respect the need to take a close look to see if any do look like bussing. Let's go through each voter.

We have Xorx, Bozo, Bunny, Balki, and yours truly

Xorx: He was the first person to vote Bob after Rdrivera said he'd be up for voting him. He then missed most of the action until the very end to check in after it took off.
On paper, this is pretty NAI, as it could easily be explained as a bus. Xorx could have found an excuse to switch his vote, but it would have looked pretty bad when he got back
I am townreading Xorx for other reasons though, and the amount of flack he got last round is still really weird. Him being off the main wagons eod1 isn't compelling enough for me.

Bozo: Was voting EMC until the vote was 5-bob, 4-chaqa, 3-EMC before switching to Bob. On paper this looks really good for Bozo. He started on EMC before switching. No one would have bat an eye if he stayed on EMC.
An interesting thing is all throughout eod while voting Bob he was questioning EMC for a lot of sketchy behaviour, and yet he still decided not to change his vote.
If Bozo was bussing, then the only motive is to be a deep threat. It would be a 4d chess move for sure. Considering he's convinced bussing happened that day with bunny, he doesn't seem to view it as a particularly town thing to do anyway? lol

I don't think anyone has even scumread Bozo this entire game yet, so maybe he's worth getting a closer look just so he's looked at once, but I don't think bozo would do 4d chess like this. occam's razor

Bunny: I already went over why I think Bunny is strong town. His public stream of conscious evolution towards convincing himself Bob is town is really hard to do as scum, and the gain of this risk is helping lynch a teammate? I don't think so

Balki: It was still really up in the air before he voted Bob. It was actually tied. So on paper, it's a really pro-town move to do, and again it's only a bus if he's going for the deep 4d chess maneuver which is obviously something scum Balki might do.
His intense push of the narrative that there was no bussing isn't really helping his case it's not a bus. I understand the suspicion of him, but I strongly believe we give him one more day before seriously considering him, when occam's razor really points to other candidates.

Flum: Well, I think this guy is town.

TL;DR
The odds of anyone being on the Bob wagon are much less likely to be scum than the people on the EMC wagon that it's worth assuming no bussing happened right now.

[rdrivera2005]

@Balki is the main reason you think bob wasn't bussed because you think scum wanted to avoid any scum lynches?

A few reasons why I don’t expect a bus there: (PZ excluded)

(1) Scum was winning.
(2) Town was flailing around and did not seem to have strong leads. We were mostly killing town lurkers.
(3) The vote was changing frantically and it was not at all clear who would flip.
(4) Because the leading wagons were low-content posters, scum would not have had very committed positions on either leading wagon, so they were not compelled by prior reads to do one thing or another. Either vote was completely defensible. They had freedom to vote for their game agenda. It was S v T. So why not just lynch town? I expect that is what they tried to do.

Okay, those are valid points. But, the whole reason for bussing is to gain town credit, right? So why do you think it's so unlikely that at least one person wasn't trying to go deeper undercover? Here are some reasons I think scum wouldn't mind bussing here:

(1) Scum was winning - they have numbers on their side, and could afford to lose a member.
(2) Someone like Bob, who looked likely to be lynched at some point regardless and was probably not going to be able to really influence the game in a pro-scum way later, seems like a prime bussing target. Especially if the scum doing the bussing is largely townread, or good at convincing people to vote the way they want them to, or just a "stronger" player in general. It would be worth it to sacrifice bob for that scum player to make it further in the game.
(3) sulit/bob didn't participate much and didn't have a lot of connections. So even though we get info from the EOD, we don't really gain too much info from their earlier play. Sulit/Bob never even cast a vote until day 3! One of the more convincing argument anyone came up with was Flum's idea that their teammates wouldn't interact with them, and that is not much to go on. So bob being revealed as scum probably tells town MUCH less than a different scum lynch would.

What makes me really astonished is kgray can see things a lot clearer and exact to the point then Balki, the Great that tried to give a lecture and made some assumptions that were never valid here on webdip Mafia.

[Fluminator]

It feels hard to believe Rdrivera and Fox would also both be scum because it seems to easy if that's the case, with everything lining up against them.

But even last eod I find them suspicious. They were happy to vote EMC eod 3, but suddenly heavily resisted voting him eod 4?

Considering a brunt of the case against them is that bussing didn't happen, you would think they would be very interesting in clearing up whether it was S vs. S so the entire narrative making them look bad would be squashed and people would start looking at other people.
It's almost like they wanted it to remain up in the air when it looked like he might get lynched.

If I change my vote you scumread me for changing, if I keep my vote you scumread me for not changing. It's confirmation bias I guess.

I don't scumread you for not changing.
I scumread you because I don't follow a town thought progression for most of your changes.

[kgray]

TL;DR
The odds of anyone being on the Bob wagon are much less likely to be scum than the people on the EMC wagon that it's worth assuming no bussing happened right now.

Thanks for going through this, and I will go back and look at what you point out in more detail later. I still disagree strongly that we should assume (even temporarily) that no bussing happened. I'm happy to focus on certain people on the emc wagon, but not for the reason of "no one bussed."

[kgray]

How many mislynches do we have left?

[Fluminator]

One mislynch left.
And if that happens, town will want to no-lynch the next day in many cases.

[rdrivera2005]

It feels hard to believe Rdrivera and Fox would also both be scum because it seems to easy if that's the case, with everything lining up against them.

But even last eod I find them suspicious. They were happy to vote EMC eod 3, but suddenly heavily resisted voting him eod 4?

Considering a brunt of the case against them is that bussing didn't happen, you would think they would be very interesting in clearing up whether it was S vs. S so the entire narrative making them look bad would be squashed and people would start looking at other people.
It's almost like they wanted it to remain up in the air when it looked like he might get lynched.

If I change my vote you scumread me for changing, if I keep my vote you scumread me for not changing. It's confirmation bias I guess.

I don't scumread you for not changing.
I scumread you because I don't follow a town thought progression for most of your changes.

I just don't know what is this town thought progression you keep referring. I didn't know if emc was town or scum and I don't know if Xorxes is town or scum. Do you want me to pretend I am full of shit and sure about things? I think there is enough town (and maybe scum) people doing this.