M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Jamiet99uk]

I have something else to say.

I have re-read Fluminator. I have decided that my scumread of him was entirely too heavily based on gut instinct based on his rather silly D1 attitudes. During the Vecna hammer, and really since then, he has seemed a lot more towny and I should have re-appraised my read of him.

The fact he didn't realise I was listing him as scum is, if anything, a little bit town-indicative as, in my experience, scum tend to keep a close eye out for people who might want to lynch them.

I'm moving him to a townlean.

[BunnyGo]

Thanks for the link. Didn't make an impression on me the first time I read it.

I still don't understand why those arguments don't apply to most of the EMC wagon; especially subtle ones like Damo using words only to influence it so he doesn't show up as moving a vote around; Jamie doing the "close vote" stuff just like Fox; EMC potentially bussing AND having scum v scum fight where it's free; Chaq moving at the very last minute to make things close again.

Well, I'm not saying none of them are scummy at all, and these are good things to think about. But here's why I think they're less suspicious (happy to keep discussing this though):

damo: I would absolutely not describe damo's EOD as subtle. To me, it seems too obvious to be bob's scum teammate. And why would he be afraid to move his vote around if he's going to be this blatant about pushing for the emc lynch in the end?

Jamie: I think he seems to be honestly interested in looking for vote movement when the votes are close (him asking Balki and emc to vote for someone viable, for example). And the timing of his vs. Fox's votes is less suspicious now that we know bob was scum. If Jamie were voting to protect bob, he would have voted for Chaqa instead of emc in the end, no? Because Chaqa was the second-biggest wagon behind bob.

emc: I still have suspicions about emc, but I'm not going to scumread him because he voted for the counter-wagon to himself. I think that is a reasonable thing to do as either alignment.

Chaqa: I don't know how scummy his vote was, as he claims some meta reason for his move to emc and I'm not really able to factor those arguments much. However, I do not think Chaqa makes sense as scum at this point for reasons having nothing to do with Chaqa's votes.

I remember damo helping get me mislynched once when he was scum doing something equally as blatant. I looked it up and it was D1 of M46. I was one vote behind scum Flavius, 7-6, 3 minutes before EOD, when scum damo posted this:

Vote bozo now

For some reason, 2 town responded by immediately voting for me, leading to me getting mislynched.

Compare this to how damo ended D3:

Back to emc folks

1 more switch required

Maybe damo is willing to blatantly try to save a scum teammate at EOD because he knows people will think it is too obvious to be scum.

This is my point again about playing town. We as a group suck. We let scum play a completely straight game. As long as they don’t actively help us, they win. Because we are sooooo in our own heads, they can do anything. And we waffle about it all.

[BunnyGo]

I think those are good points by Bozo.

I think the three flips I’d most like to see right now would be Fox, Damo, and rdrivera.

Why rdr? I still don’t understand that wagon.

Balki, I’d rather focus on the EMC group today. Bozo makes some good Damo points (I’m honesty surprised. I wonder if I’m just tired). Let’s ##VOTE DAMO. But an EMC wagon would be tempting too.

[Jamiet99uk]

I think those are good points by Bozo.

I think the three flips I’d most like to see right now would be Fox, Damo, and rdrivera.

Why rdr? I still don’t understand that wagon.

Balki, I’d rather focus on the EMC group today. Bozo makes some good Damo points (I’m honesty surprised. I wonder if I’m just tired). Let’s ##VOTE DAMO. But an EMC wagon would be tempting too.

Damo is a bad lynch idea today.

EMC or Balki should be the lynch.

[damo666]

EMC day 3 voting is very odd. He keeps to minor wagons when he could be voting Bob to relieve pressure on himself and only votes Bob once it was inevitable one of the 2 were for the chop. Also , why didn't Bob vote EMC?

All this indicates to me EMC is a more valuable scum than Bob.

##vote EMC

Join me. I'm pretty well convinced.

The things damo points out here are things that did make me suspect emc, namely the late emc vote for Bob and Bob twice choosing to vote for an emc counterwagon, but maybe damo is just using these things knowing they make a town emc look bad. If damo is scum who was trying to save Bob, then emc is town.

And presumably if EMC flips scum you will townread me I hope.

[damo666]

Thanks for the link. Didn't make an impression on me the first time I read it.

I still don't understand why those arguments don't apply to most of the EMC wagon; especially subtle ones like Damo using words only to influence it so he doesn't show up as moving a vote around; Jamie doing the "close vote" stuff just like Fox; EMC potentially bussing AND having scum v scum fight where it's free; Chaq moving at the very last minute to make things close again.

Well, I'm not saying none of them are scummy at all, and these are good things to think about. But here's why I think they're less suspicious (happy to keep discussing this though):

damo: I would absolutely not describe damo's EOD as subtle. To me, it seems too obvious to be bob's scum teammate. And why would he be afraid to move his vote around if he's going to be this blatant about pushing for the emc lynch in the end?

Jamie: I think he seems to be honestly interested in looking for vote movement when the votes are close (him asking Balki and emc to vote for someone viable, for example). And the timing of his vs. Fox's votes is less suspicious now that we know bob was scum. If Jamie were voting to protect bob, he would have voted for Chaqa instead of emc in the end, no? Because Chaqa was the second-biggest wagon behind bob.

emc: I still have suspicions about emc, but I'm not going to scumread him because he voted for the counter-wagon to himself. I think that is a reasonable thing to do as either alignment.

Chaqa: I don't know how scummy his vote was, as he claims some meta reason for his move to emc and I'm not really able to factor those arguments much. However, I do not think Chaqa makes sense as scum at this point for reasons having nothing to do with Chaqa's votes.

I remember damo helping get me mislynched once when he was scum doing something equally as blatant. I looked it up and it was D1 of M46. I was one vote behind scum Flavius, 7-6, 3 minutes before EOD, when scum damo posted this:

Vote bozo now

For some reason, 2 town responded by immediately voting for me, leading to me getting mislynched.

Compare this to how damo ended D3:

Back to emc folks

1 more switch required

Maybe damo is willing to blatantly try to save a scum teammate at EOD because he knows people will think it is too obvious to be scum.

Once find Bozo, however it is simply the case i thought EMC more likely scum than Bob. I now obviously think it was Scum v Scum

[damo666]

Which role would be more valuable at this point?

I don't understand the point of this question. Clearly both killer and godfather more valuable than goon. You are beginning to worry me Xorxes.

This post concerned me about damo. damo usually pays close attention to the setup, I find it hard to believe he would not know as either town or scum that the GF role no longer has any extra value and that the killer was never more valuable than the goon.

And you think I would say this if I were scum? Clearly I wouldn't because I would be so aware of the qualities I would view as a blatant fake townslip.

It was a genuine townslip.

Probably because I am so convinced EMC is scum I am justifying his vote thusly.

[damo666]

This was damo's antepenultimate post of D3, which was on page 117:

No time to read last 10 pp.

A one sentence summary of why the sudden Bob wagon pls.

However, in damo's preantepenultimate post of D3, 21 minutes earlier, he answered a question from page 107:

@Damo:

Why were you so angry about people voting Chaqa on D1? What exactly was it about Chaqa's EOD1 activity that caused you to suddenly flip to scumreading him?

1. I wasn't angry. I didn't see the case on Chaqa and did not understand why he was attracting votes.

2. Tbh can't remember. I'd have to go check. However catching up at mo. The above quote is where I am up to so this response it a bit 'Damius'.

Did damo really not make any progress catching up in this 21 minutes, or was he trying to dissuade the Bob wagon?

7 mins to EOD, 10 was an estimate. I was v busy at the time and mafia unfortunately wasnt a priority. (Lockdown had just been announced here in uk)

[BunnyGo]

I think those are good points by Bozo.

I think the three flips I’d most like to see right now would be Fox, Damo, and rdrivera.

Why rdr? I still don’t understand that wagon.

Balki, I’d rather focus on the EMC group today. Bozo makes some good Damo points (I’m honesty surprised. I wonder if I’m just tired). Let’s ##VOTE DAMO. But an EMC wagon would be tempting too.

Damo is a bad lynch idea today.

EMC or Balki should be the lynch.

I’ve changed my mind about Balki today. I want Town to stop tripping over feet and letting scum get away with stuff. I’ll join you on EMC if that’s more viable than Damo.

If someone has time to dig into kgray, and make a similarly compelling case, I’d consider that too.

[BunnyGo]

I’m largely gonna be home till EOD (school time) but will try to be on a little with an hour to go.

[Jamiet99uk]

I’ve changed my mind about Balki today. I want Town to stop tripping over feet and letting scum get away with stuff.

Balki is scum, and we have been letting him get away with it all game, so far.

But, if you'll join me on EMC, who has been getting away with a whole lot of lurking and other crapola… then come on. ##VOTE EMC.

[BunnyGo]

I’ve changed my mind about Balki today. I want Town to stop tripping over feet and letting scum get away with stuff.

Balki is scum, and we have been letting him get away with it all game, so far.

But, if you'll join me on EMC, who has been getting away with a whole lot of lurking and other crapola… then come on. ##VOTE EMC.

##VOTE EMC see you in a few hours.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Everyone: Be wary of anybody attempting to brush off this renewed attempt to lynch EMC as "a policy lynch" or "just because he is lurking".

That is not the case. I genuinely scumread EMC. I gave some reasons on page 89 and little has happened to change my view.

[Foxcastle]

@Everyone: Be wary of anybody attempting to brush off this renewed attempt to lynch EMC as "a policy lynch" or "just because he is lurking".

That is not the case. I genuinely scumread EMC. I gave some reasons on page 89 and little has happened to change my view.

Related, what is the calculation on whether we should lynch EMC now to avoid a potential modkill today (assuming he doesn't show up, though I think he will), versus lynching someone else and having two flips today (assuming he doesn't show up), versus EMC shows up and we lynch someone else but have to deal with him possibly being modkilled on later days closer to LyLo/MyLo?

[Fluminator]

Don't have time to post much right now but I've now seen 3 people make the argument they're not scum because "if they were scum they'd do X instead."
These are bad and unconvincing arguments that I often see scum use.

[Fluminator]

EMC getting modkilled would be a dream tbh. Doesn't even lose us a mislynch this time.

[Fluminator]

Would it be considered outside the spirit of the game to try to trick him into getting modkilled?

[damo666]

@Everyone: Be wary of anybody attempting to brush off this renewed attempt to lynch EMC as "a policy lynch" or "just because he is lurking".

That is not the case. I genuinely scumread EMC. I gave some reasons on page 89 and little has happened to change my view.

Related, what is the calculation on whether we should lynch EMC now to avoid a potential modkill today (assuming he doesn't show up, though I think he will), versus lynching someone else and having two flips today (assuming he doesn't show up), versus EMC shows up and we lynch someone else but have to deal with him possibly being modkilled on later days closer to LyLo/MyLo?

I'd say lynch him anyway. If he turns up I can't see him convincing his voters to switch.

If we try lynch someone else and mislynch and EMC is modkilled as scum we will kick ourselves.

[damo666]

Would it be considered outside the spirit of the game to try to trick him into getting modkilled?

How would that be possible?

[Jamiet99uk]

@Everyone: Be wary of anybody attempting to brush off this renewed attempt to lynch EMC as "a policy lynch" or "just because he is lurking".

That is not the case. I genuinely scumread EMC. I gave some reasons on page 89 and little has happened to change my view.

Related, what is the calculation on whether we should lynch EMC now to avoid a potential modkill today (assuming he doesn't show up, though I think he will), versus lynching someone else and having two flips today (assuming he doesn't show up), versus EMC shows up and we lynch someone else but have to deal with him possibly being modkilled on later days closer to LyLo/MyLo?

It's tricky.

I don't mind scum being modkilled. However, I am aware of a potential scum strategy, especially at a later stage in the game, which basically goes like this:

1. Lurk horribly.
2. Observe that the possibility of you being modkilled has been discussed.
3. Continue to lurk in the hope that people will not vote for you because they assume you are going to be modkilled.
4. Show up late in the day, and avoid both the modkill and the lynch.