M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Balki Bartokomous]

I guess to eliminate the suspense, I’ll ##vote Foxcastle.

I really don’t envision changing this vote, and I think it’s pretty clear this is the right lynch today. If y’all need this flip to help your read on me, that’s all the more reason for you to join me on this wagon.

But the critical, hard evidence supporting this vote is that Fox behaves exactly as Occam’s razor says scum behave when they are winning the game, but their scum partner is on the line in a close and dynamic vote. He tried to subtly herd people away from voting Bob, and he cast a late vote to save his partner when the outcome was in doubt. That is a high-likelihood place to find scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

Town
Jamiet99uk
damo666
bozotheclown
rdrivera2005
kgray
xorxes
BunnyGo
Foxcastle
Chaqa
Balki Bartokomous
Fluminator
e.m.c^42
Scum

[Foxcastle]

Thanks Fox.

The main thing regarding your case is it's entirely meta. Meta is very compelling, and one of the main things I use, but it's almost impossible to meta someone from a game you weren't directly a part of to get the full context.
So it's hard to verify if this is a good case doing a deepdive in those games.

Could you give some examples/quotes of the games where town Balki targeted you that show the difference?

I think it's more than meta than when it's the precise same approach down to the wording. He doesn't do this in any of his other games. Meta is about similarities, and what we see between M46 and this game is way more than that.

This is Balki talking about me in M36, when we are both town. (Begins Day 3, when I subbed in.)

This is Balki talking about me in M1006 where Balki is town and I am scum.

I think even just skimming through them, you can see his tone is very different. Another thing he doesn't do: attack me on meta. There's none of this "non-confrontational", "under the radar" stuff. He's engaging more directly with what I'm doing.

I think it's very clear that Balki is just dredging up his old tactics from M46, I don't know if he's doing it consciously or not. But I think it's impossible that a player would generate a false read as scum, and then come back and push that exact same read, down to the wording and the use of parentheses, as town in a later game.

[Foxcastle]

Two things about EOD3.

First, I wouldn't do that as scum. I would be way more careful about justifying myself, looking respectable, and keeping out of the way, even of a mislynch. I am much more careful as scum.

Second, players who know me know that I bus. I murdered EMC right out the gate last time. I jump on my scummates all the time, especially when they look likely to go down. Bob was deadweight, scum-Foxcastle would have delighted in bussing him. But I didn't, because I didn't know he was scum.

[Foxcastle]

Nobody finds it odd that Balki is repeating, word for word, his scum game from a year ago?

[rdrivera2005]

Correct.

Most townslips are like that, but sometimes some townslips are very hard to see as being fake. I remember there was one by rivera in a recent game that convinced me he was town very early.

Rivera specifically I remember has faked a townslip before.

I don't believe in townslips as anything but coincedental/secondary evidence.

I never faked a townslip and I dare you to find it. Based on your own logic to lynch Vecna you are lying and should be lynched...

[rdrivera2005]

Nobody finds it odd that Balki is repeating, word for word, his scum game from a year ago?

I found odd, but at this point if I join you on Balki it won't help your case. Anyway, I don't want to lynch you anymore.

##vote Xorxes, back to where I never have leaved.

[rdrivera2005]

Most townslips are like that, but sometimes some townslips are very hard to see as being fake. I remember there was one by rivera in a recent game that convinced me he was town very early.

Rivera specifically I remember has faked a townslip before.

I don't believe in townslips as anything but coincedental/secondary evidence.

I never faked a townslip and I dare you to find it. Based on your own logic to lynch Vecna you are lying and should be lynched...

And I don't believe on town slips and have stated this more then once in other games.

[kgray]

Nobody finds it odd that Balki is repeating, word for word, his scum game from a year ago?

I do think it's odd, but there are more people doing odd things than there are available scum slots. And to be honest, I'm not really putting a lot of weight into meta arguments. I get why you might be, having played with Balki and seen this before, but I can't go back and verify everyone's meta so I'm just trying to focus on this game.

I'm suspicious of Balki based on "feel" and not something that he's done explicitly. Is there anything else, besides his push on you, that you think is scummy about him?

[xorxes]

Nobody finds it odd that Balki is repeating, word for word, his scum game from a year ago?

Yes, it is odd.

@Balki, comment on that?

[Jamiet99uk]

Nobody finds it odd that Balki is repeating, word for word, his scum game from a year ago?

Yes. Balki has felt quite fake to me this whole game.

I mentioned this on D1 where he was one of my strongest early scumreads.

I could vote Balki today but I'd also like to lynch EMC.

[xorxes]

Rivera specifically I remember has faked a townslip before.

I don't believe in townslips as anything but coincedental/secondary evidence.

I never faked a townslip and I dare you to find it. Based on your own logic to lynch Vecna you are lying and should be lynched...

And I don't believe on town slips and have stated this more then once in other games.

That's true you have stated that, even in the game where you did townslip.

I understand that when you and Chaqa say "I don't believe in townslips" you don't mean you don't believe that they exist, but rather that you don't believe that they are a useful way to sort someone because they are usually easy to fake, so it is hard to tell the genuine ones (that obviously do exist) from the fake ones (that also exist).

[Chaqa]

Most townslips are like that, but sometimes some townslips are very hard to see as being fake. I remember there was one by rivera in a recent game that convinced me he was town very early.

Rivera specifically I remember has faked a townslip before.

I don't believe in townslips as anything but coincedental/secondary evidence.

I never faked a townslip and I dare you to find it. Based on your own logic to lynch Vecna you are lying and should be lynched...

If i remembered the exact game I'd go find it.

[Foxcastle]

Nobody finds it odd that Balki is repeating, word for word, his scum game from a year ago?

I do think it's odd, but there are more people doing odd things than there are available scum slots. And to be honest, I'm not really putting a lot of weight into meta arguments. I get why you might be, having played with Balki and seen this before, but I can't go back and verify everyone's meta so I'm just trying to focus on this game.

I'm suspicious of Balki based on "feel" and not something that he's done explicitly. Is there anything else, besides his push on you, that you think is scummy about him?

I don't like that he's positioned himself in very ambiguous slots on all the wagons so far. Perfectly safe, middle-of-the-herd places that could go a very long time before we have enough information about the composition of those wagons to be able use that information to sort him. It seems deliberate, and it's something that would appeal to scum.

Others have pointed out that he's pushy but not solvy. BunnyGo, I think, pointed out that he's been very hedgy and hasn't taken strong positions on nearly anything.

[Chaqa]

I'm pretty okay with all of the big wagons right now, except rivera.

Xorxes, Balki, Fox are all good lynches. I'm wavering a bit on the Bunny vote.

##Vote xorxes, back to where I think we're most likely to find scum. Would also vote Balki or Fox.

[kgray]

Nobody finds it odd that Balki is repeating, word for word, his scum game from a year ago?

I do think it's odd, but there are more people doing odd things than there are available scum slots. And to be honest, I'm not really putting a lot of weight into meta arguments. I get why you might be, having played with Balki and seen this before, but I can't go back and verify everyone's meta so I'm just trying to focus on this game.

I'm suspicious of Balki based on "feel" and not something that he's done explicitly. Is there anything else, besides his push on you, that you think is scummy about him?

I don't like that he's positioned himself in very ambiguous slots on all the wagons so far. Perfectly safe, middle-of-the-herd places that could go a very long time before we have enough information about the composition of those wagons to be able use that information to sort him. It seems deliberate, and it's something that would appeal to scum.

Others have pointed out that he's pushy but not solvy. BunnyGo, I think, pointed out that he's been very hedgy and hasn't taken strong positions on nearly anything.

Re your first point: Flum has ended each day on the same wagon as Balki, and Bunny also did except for day 2 which was hammered. Night 3 you said Flum and Bunny are in your townreads. Can you explain why you think Balki's votes seem scummier than theirs?

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE BALKI

Let's make a real wagon of him and see what happens.

I don't like letting EMC of the hook but I'm not going to forget about that little worm either.

[Fluminator]

It would probably be a good use of time to see if Fox cherry-picked quotes or not. It's really easy to make someone look bad picking specific quotes.
It would really help determine Fox's alignment too if it's genuine or sketchy.

[xorxes]

I'm pretty okay with all of the big wagons right now, except rivera.

Xorxes, Balki, Fox are all good lynches. I'm wavering a bit on the Bunny vote.

##Vote xorxes, back to where I think we're most likely to find scum. Would also vote Balki or Fox.

@Chaqa, I know rivera is voting for me for lynching Vecna, but I don't know why you are.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Nobody finds it odd that Balki is repeating, word for word, his scum game from a year ago?

Yes, it is odd.

@Balki, comment on that?

Now do I have to go back and read those Fox posts closely?

I mean, I think his case is that I used a lot of the same words to describe Fox's play in this game, which I used to describe Fox's play in a game where I was scum. I'd say that is not surprising, and it's NAI.

I don't remember this history perfectly, but here is the basic chronology in my head right now about my meta with Foxcastle.

(1) I was town in some game, and Fox was sticking around for a long time, and nobody really had a read on him, and then I developed a read on him focused on his avoidance of confrontation, avoiding me specifically, and being "pleasing," which turned out to be correct.

(2) I was scum in a later game, and at some point in the game I tried to push a lynch on Fox, and in that read, I used a similar line of attack, saying that he was trying to please and avoiding me, and avoiding confrontation. Part of my inspiration for that push, was the earlier game in which I was town and I successfully read Scum!Fox, and I probably mentioned that during that game as a way to add authenticity to my push.

(3) Now, we are in a subsequent game, and I am saying some of the same things about Fox -- nonconfrontational, avoiding me, etc.

And I'm not just using those ideas to sort Fox. I am using similar ideas to sort just about everyone (especially before we had the voting data from D3). That is one of the main ways I use to sort scum from town -- avoidance of conflict, being pleasing, avoiding me, picking a fight with me, and other things along those lines. I use those tools as Town, and I use those tools when I am Scum to mimic my own Town game.

This is the definition of NAI.

If you want to sort me, you should not check to see if I am using the same words as I have used in past games. You should instead look at the arguments I am making, check the evidence yourself to see if my argument appears sincere, and decide whether I am trying to solve a puzzle, or trying to fabricate a puzzle-solving process.

There is know easy rubric for catching Scum!Balki that says, "when he uses words like 'non-confrontational' to describe Foxcastle, he is scum." There is no easy rubric to catch most people who are any good at all at this game.