M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Chaqa]

How do you mean that? Do you think damo and Jamie are just as likely to not realize the relative value of the mafia roles as scum?

I think anything that can be construed as a town slip can be faked, and town slips are more likely to be fake than real. Scum slips (true ones) cannot be faked as they involved information only scum would know, whereas scum have all information town would know.

OK, so you are saying that a "town slip" can't be distinguished from a "fake town slip", and therefore no one should be given town credit for a "town slip"?

Correct.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Balki: Why have you not voted yet? Are you not sure who you scumread today?

My ranking, right now, is, scum to town:

Scum
Fox
rdrivera
Damo
kgray
Chaqa
Jamiet
EMC
xorx
Bozo
Flum
Bunny
Town

I'll vote in plenty of time. I don't feel any particular need to vote right this moment. I am still quite interested to see what rocks everyone decides to turn over today.

I like this format. Can we get everyone to do this?

On you go Chaqa.

Let's see yours, if you like it so much

[Chaqa]

Town
Bozo
kgray
damo
rivera
Jamiet
EMC
Flum
Balki
Bunny
Fox
xorxes
Scum

Here is mine

[Chaqa]

lol Jamie i was working on mine, had to get the formatting all pretty

[Foxcastle]

Fox, why do you think Balki is trying to mislynch you specifically?

Maybe he thinks I'm an easy victim, or he saw that not a lot of people put me in their town reads for Bozo's survey, or whatever. I do think it's true that my baseline meta is pretty much never obv-town. So I think it's opportunistic.

Let us return to Flum’s question, because I was deliberately somewhat incomplete in answering it. I think Balki is trying to mislynch me specifically because it’s a playbook he’s familiar with. It’s possible that he saw that I wasn’t strongly townread, it’s possible that it was an opportunity that arose organically for him, because it’s true my baseline meta is not obv-town.

But everything he’s doing now to get me mislynched is what he’s done as scum in previous games. The language is even weirdly the same.

The block of quotes below is from M46, where he was scum (killed N3 by third party, whom he had been impersonating), and I was town. I was possibly up for the mislynch on D2 before a PR limited the lynch to two other players. You can read his ISO from that game here. One thing I have not included is his early shading and scumleans on me, but it follows the very same pattern he’s using here: dropping little posts of concern, saying he needs to look into me, basically seeding the idea that I’m scum well before he actually comes after me; that is on the edge of NAI, since town can also ‘have concerns’ that evolve into a real scumread, but when you see his m46 scum game and this game side-by-side, it’s too similar.

##vote Foxcastle

That's where my head is right now. Though, I am not at all confident. And I have not ISOed Fox, and I need to do that. But here are the impressions in my mind:

Fox has been sitting back, cracking jokes all the time, super chill. He has sprinkled in comments. He's been around. But he has not been taking stands. Most of his reads have been about gathering information or enforcing policies. He has not taken a stand on anything likely to get pushback. He has not made any scumread on an experienced player who would put him in the spotlight.

He's playing to avoid confrontation.

I made a similar read on him for similar reasons the last time we played together, and I was right at that time. I feel like he may be scum again here.

Though, the game I have in mind in which Fox was scum, I found that he avoided conflict (especially conflict with me) , so tell me the game you have in mind where the meta is different.

And if you really have a Town read on Foxy, make me understand why. If you’re Town, I want to work with you. I’ll take the time to think about this if you work to make yourself understood.

I highlighted some of the phrases and sentiments that are important for comparison with what he’s said this game...

But, putting that aside, I think you're scum. I feel like I always think you're scum for the same reason, but you also happen to have drawn scum for, it seems like, all of my recent games here. I think you're scum because you're avoiding confrontation and generally avoiding me. You're not leading. You're not passionate. You're not moving the action. You're just blandly commenting, keeping me in your town reads (with a little wiggle room for later).

You're playing like Scum!Fox.

I don't think that Town!Fox would ever say that I am his strongest town read, in a game in which I have not lead a lynch on known scum.

Does that make sense?

My impression is that Fox thinks I'm a strong player. And I've noticed that he stays away from me in games where I am town and he's scum. He does not confront me. That's what I've seen here.

I expect the paranoia from him. And I expect it to manifest itself in him questioning things that I am doing. Here, he has just stayed away. And he oddly called me his strongest town read. I don't believe it.

No, but I’ve played with you several times, and I’ve definitely observed a pattern where you avoid confrontation (with me in particular) as scum, and it fits the model I would expect to see generally.

In the case of Fox, it’s more than that. It’s that he called me his top town read, and it’s his general lack of confrontation and conviction all game.

Foxy is non confrontational and I don't believe him when he said I was his highest town read.

Even here, I can't say I'm really sure that Fox is scum. But I wrote that because I began to suspect Fox as scum yesterday based on his nonconfrontationalism, and his vote off the scumlynch wagon near EOD is exactly what we would expect from ScumFox (assuming EMC is Town, which I suppose I am mentally doing right now, but could still be wrong).

If you're town, you're going to have to do some serious work to convince me. But you've got time. Go catch scum.

Below is me in M46 recapping (to Durga) how pernicious this tactic is, which is probably why Balki keeps going back to it. This is me trying to wipe off Balki’s false read of me three game days after he was lynched. (And sure, I was not the towniest player that game, but still.)

If I'm your top scumread, then town will follow you to our doom. I don't know what would change your mind. I pushed back against the Balki Special (i.e., "Foxcastle's play is vague and non-commital, present with being engaged, blah blah blah") since he started pushing it and you echoed him. But it's hard to push back against a phantom read constructed of smoke and balkifart.

Some additional notes:

Balki often refers to the game he “caught” me, whereby he learned about my apparent scum meta that he’s hung his hat on here. That was M1006, and maybe he does remember it that way (people do reflect and learn, which colors their memory), but it doesn’t show up in his ISO of that game. I think it was a convenient cover story for his M46 push on me that has carried through to this game. (The whole idea that confrontation with him is an indicator of anything doesn't appear in any of his other games or applied to any other player, that I could find.)

Of four games together (prior to this one), Balki and I have been on opposite teams 3 times and been town together just once (and never scum together). Balki as scum versus me as town in M34 (I was still a newbie) and M46, and Balki as town versus me as scum in M1006, and town together in M36. Whenever we have been on opposite teams, we have butted heads hard (although, to be fair, the time we were town together was not a love-fest either). If you look at town-Balki’s games when I’m scum, he catches me in very different ways than he’s pursuing here; if you look at town-Balki’s games when I am town, we still tend to go at it, but his tone and approach are much different. I think this is a good sign that Balki and I are on opposite teams this game, so if he does manage to see me mislynched, lynch him next.


There is no reasonable explanation for why town-Balki this game would so closely mimic scum-Balki from M46, down to the phrase. I don’t know if it’s conscious or not, but it’s a pretty clearly scummy. His game here does not reflect his town games in the past, and I think it’s clear that he and I are not the same alignment. He is scum.

[Chaqa]

FWIW, I don't think lynching Balki or Fox, and then the other if the first doesn't flip scum, is a bad idea. I don't think they're both scum, but I think for sure one of them is.

[Balki Bartokomous]

FWIW, I don't think lynching Balki or Fox, and then the other if the first doesn't flip scum, is a bad idea. I don't think they're both scum, but I think for sure one of them is.

Why do you think one of us is?

[damo666]

@Balki: Why have you not voted yet? Are you not sure who you scumread today?

My ranking, right now, is, scum to town:

Scum
Fox
rdrivera
Damo
kgray
Chaqa
Jamiet
EMC
xorx
Bozo
Flum
Bunny
Town

I'll vote in plenty of time. I don't feel any particular need to vote right this moment. I am still quite interested to see what rocks everyone decides to turn over today.

I like this format. Can we get everyone to do this?

No. Because it is not as simple as that. There are if this then that person or not that person or if not this person then that person or no that person. [wow]

ie a list is not appropriate, it's a much more complicated tree type diagram.

And before you ask, no. Too difficult to type up.

[kgray]

I don't think Chaqa is scum, and since he was my prime suspect before the bob lynch, I need new suspects. Looking back at the day 3 votes knowing Bob was scum seemed the best place to start. Most of this has already been brought up and thoroughly discussed, but here's my take on it.

• In the moment, it did look like Bunny was avoiding voting for Chaqa, and I thought he could have been trying to save him. But, now that we know bob was scum, I don't know why scum-Bunny would stay on bob the way he did. Bozo's questioning of Bunny at the time gave Bunny plenty of excuses to leave bob's wagon and get back on Chaqa. Bozo now claims that Bunny was busing bob because it looked very likely that bob would be lynched, but the last time Bunny changed his vote he could have voted for Chaqa and made it a 3-way tie. Instead he put bob in the lead. I think this makes Bunny likely town - unless Chaqa is scum.

• The purpose of busing is to get town credit for lynching your teammate, right? So I'm looking for people who could be trying to capitalize off of that. The person that seems most likely to be playing this angle is Balki. He's been pretty strongly emphasizing the "scum wouldn't want a scum lynch" narrative. I mean, this makes sense, and I can definitely understand why town-Balki would do that, but this seems pretty extreme. Although, he's being so heavy-handed with it and I'd expect him to be more subtle as scum....

• Fox voting for bob to "make the votes closer" could be a towny thing to do, but it also doesn't really commit him to voting for bob, and he moves off onto emc. Worcej talks about this more in this post and I think it's a convincing argument. And I agree with what many people have been previously discussing in detail: Fox's voting seems scummy.

• Originally I though rdr helping to start bob's wagon was towny, but that was pretty early during the day when there was plenty of time for someone else to become a wagon. And, rdr didn't even put bob in the lead at that point, and as soon as bob was in the lead rdr changed his vote. He did provide reasonable explanations for his votes when he switched them. I think rdr is capable of doing this as scum, though, and I think rdr jumped off of bob as soon as he had a reason to, and then found reasons not to get back on bob's wagon. I think rdr's votes are scummy.

[kgray]

At this point, I think Fox or rdr are the best lynch options for today, and for now I'll go with ##vote rdr

[Fluminator]

Thanks Fox.

The main thing regarding your case is it's entirely meta. Meta is very compelling, and one of the main things I use, but it's almost impossible to meta someone from a game you weren't directly a part of to get the full context.
So it's hard to verify if this is a good case doing a deepdive in those games.

Could you give some examples/quotes of the games where town Balki targeted you that show the difference?

[xorxes]

Agree with damo about the if-thens, but that doesn't mean we can't sort everyone in a rough order, even if that order can change after we see a flip.

Town
Jamiet
Flum
damo
bozo
Bunny
Fox
kgray
Balki
Chaqa
emc
rivera
Scum

[Fluminator]

*So it's hard to verify if this is a good case without doing a deepdive in those games.

I should really proofread my posts.

[xorxes]

I don't think Chaqa is scum, and since he was my prime suspect before the bob lynch, I need new suspects. Looking back at the day 3 votes knowing Bob was scum seemed the best place to start. Most of this has already been brought up and thoroughly discussed, but here's my take on it.

• In the moment, it did look like Bunny was avoiding voting for Chaqa, and I thought he could have been trying to save him. But, now that we know bob was scum, I don't know why scum-Bunny would stay on bob the way he did. Bozo's questioning of Bunny at the time gave Bunny plenty of excuses to leave bob's wagon and get back on Chaqa. Bozo now claims that Bunny was busing bob because it looked very likely that bob would be lynched, but the last time Bunny changed his vote he could have voted for Chaqa and made it a 3-way tie. Instead he put bob in the lead. I think this makes Bunny likely town - unless Chaqa is scum.

• The purpose of busing is to get town credit for lynching your teammate, right? So I'm looking for people who could be trying to capitalize off of that. The person that seems most likely to be playing this angle is Balki. He's been pretty strongly emphasizing the "scum wouldn't want a scum lynch" narrative. I mean, this makes sense, and I can definitely understand why town-Balki would do that, but this seems pretty extreme. Although, he's being so heavy-handed with it and I'd expect him to be more subtle as scum....

• Fox voting for bob to "make the votes closer" could be a towny thing to do, but it also doesn't really commit him to voting for bob, and he moves off onto emc. Worcej talks about this more in this post and I think it's a convincing argument. And I agree with what many people have been previously discussing in detail: Fox's voting seems scummy.

• Originally I though rdr helping to start bob's wagon was towny, but that was pretty early during the day when there was plenty of time for someone else to become a wagon. And, rdr didn't even put bob in the lead at that point, and as soon as bob was in the lead rdr changed his vote. He did provide reasonable explanations for his votes when he switched them. I think rdr is capable of doing this as scum, though, and I think rdr jumped off of bob as soon as he had a reason to, and then found reasons not to get back on bob's wagon. I think rdr's votes are scummy.

I want to move kgray more towards town after this.

rivera pretty much had to vote for Bob when I voted for him after he said he would join. If he had not voted for Bob then, that would have really looked bad.

[Chaqa]

Hmmm.

Bozo, could you revisit your Bunny case from the assumption that there was no bussing?

We should find candidates who makes sense in the case where there was bussing and wasn't, and see if there's any overlap.

[kgray]

Yes, a lot of if/then statements cannot be accounted for in this format, and this is based on people individually, not as possible teammates.

Town
jamie
bozo
Flum
damo
Chaqa
Bunny
xorxes
Balki
emc
Fox
rdr
Scum

[xorxes]

I think anything that can be construed as a town slip can be faked, and town slips are more likely to be fake than real. Scum slips (true ones) cannot be faked as they involved information only scum would know, whereas scum have all information town would know.

OK, so you are saying that a "town slip" can't be distinguished from a "fake town slip", and therefore no one should be given town credit for a "town slip"?

Correct.

Most townslips are like that, but sometimes some townslips are very hard to see as being fake. I remember there was one by rivera in a recent game that convinced me he was town very early.

[Chaqa]

OK, so you are saying that a "town slip" can't be distinguished from a "fake town slip", and therefore no one should be given town credit for a "town slip"?

Correct.

Most townslips are like that, but sometimes some townslips are very hard to see as being fake. I remember there was one by rivera in a recent game that convinced me he was town very early.

Rivera specifically I remember has faked a townslip before.

I don't believe in townslips as anything but coincedental/secondary evidence.

[xorxes]

On D3, Bob voted for xorxes when emc was the lead wagon by 2 votes, bringing xorxes to 1 vote behind emc. Later, Bob switched his vote to Chaqa when emc was again the leading wagon by 2 votes, bringing Chaqa to 1 vote behind emc. This was Bob's second to last post:

To be fair, I don't like how long emc has remained absent today. If he doesn't start participating soon... I dunno, we can lynch him but he still may not actually be scum. Maybe he's lurking for other reasons. But leaving it this long is bad.

If emc is scum, Bob could have been trying to distance from his pro-emc votes in case emc got lynched.

Yep, makes sense.

[xorxes]

Correct.

Most townslips are like that, but sometimes some townslips are very hard to see as being fake. I remember there was one by rivera in a recent game that convinced me he was town very early.

Rivera specifically I remember has faked a townslip before.

I don't believe in townslips as anything but coincedental/secondary evidence.

I don't give them much weight unless I find them really compelling, which is rare, but it happens sometimes.