M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[BunnyGo]

Bunny Buddy, I'll look at Balki more closely tomorrow with you if we myslynch today.

For now, can you confirm for everyone that everyone in this town tried engaging with Bob/Sulit except for Rdrivera, Fox, and EMC. You mentioned you wanted to.

(This is also why I always crusade against lurkers at the beginning. Active players reveal things like this better)

Yes...in a meeting now, that'll be my next post.

[Foxcastle]

Ah, good point. I don't mean that, either. I mean a case based on his voting pattern or a scumslip or an analysis of how he associated with other players. Something like that. I do not mean "Balki feels off" or "Balki hasn't been solving" or more speculative/moody/gut-feeling reads.

Yeah, maybe go back through all my scum games and present all of the reasons that people scumread me, and then make a spreadsheet about them.

And then go get all my town games and present all of the reasons that people scumread me, and then make a spreadsheet of those.

And then -- and this is the exciting part -- tell us how that is relevant to this game.

If you insist.

(I'm not actually doing this, obviously.)

[Jamiet99uk]

@Balki: Why have you not voted yet? Are you not sure who you scumread today?

[Foxcastle]

Flum, if I ask you to read a post about Balki and promise you that it's not the usual thing I've been saying, would you read it?

[bozotheclown]

Bob is very voteable but from experience does he not engage with flavour more as scum?

What does this mean? I believe Bob was only scum previously in M51, when he was lynched D1. Is that the "experience" you were talking about?

[damo666]

Which role would be more valuable at this point?

I don't understand the point of this question. Clearly both killer and godfather more valuable than goon. You are beginning to worry me Xorxes.

Besides what has been pointed out about the GF having no extra value with the cop gone, having a mafia killer is meant to help town. Why do you think the killer is more valuable than the goon?

I'm hypothesising that EMC was knowingly bussing Bob which gives him 2 possible roles. Their value is not particularly material, either emc thought he was of more value through role or ability or just plain wanted himself to survive rather than Bob.

[Foxcastle]

Flum, if I ask you to read a post about Balki and promise you that it's not the usual thing I've been saying, would you read it?

Jamiet, I think you'll like it, too.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki: Why have you not voted yet? Are you not sure who you scumread today?

My ranking, right now, is, scum to town:

Scum
Fox
rdrivera
Damo
kgray
Chaqa
Jamiet
EMC
xorx
Bozo
Flum
Bunny
Town

I'll vote in plenty of time. I don't feel any particular need to vote right this moment. I am still quite interested to see what rocks everyone decides to turn over today.

[Chaqa]

I think scum would play up the narrative that Day 3 mattered so much if they did indeed bus Bob.

Can you think of any reasons why town would try to say that Day 3 mattered?

(recall please, when you answer, that the Day 3 vote was 7-6, and we as a group shifted our votes in the final hour to lynch scum)

Oh, for sure there's reasons. It's really just hard to know for sure given the way this scum team is structured with their fourth member being hidden.

[Fluminator]

Flum, if I ask you to read a post about Balki and promise you that it's not the usual thing I've been saying, would you read it?

I'll read whatever you have to say about Balki, if you also reread Rdrivera and give me your opinion on him.

[Foxcastle]

Flum, if I ask you to read a post about Balki and promise you that it's not the usual thing I've been saying, would you read it?

I'll read whatever you have to say about Balki, if you also reread Rdrivera and give me your opinion on him.

Deal.

[rdrivera2005]

Thanks, I've now learned your weakness for when I am scum

It's just -- this is totally the right thing to do, and it's not what scum wants.

It is ridiculous to push on me today. My behavior yesterday really does not make sense as Scum!Balki. But, granted, Scum!Balki is a crafty, crafty little squirrel. So you probably don't want to sort him as Town for getting one vote right.

If you're scum, you love all the people ignoring obvious explanations for the vote yesterday and second-guessing first principles. You love people focused on questioning me. It would be very unusual and counter to win condition for you to try to sweep that out of the thread with "let's think about that tomorrow if we mislynch today."

I have to agree with this, even considering he wants to focus on lynching me....
If Balki stays alive one or two more nights then maybe it's time to consider him as a possible scum, until then base a lynch on "I feel" on D4 is lame.

And if I not wrong I was the Reporter who catched him on that game he was scum.

[bozotheclown]

I don't understand the point of this question. Clearly both killer and godfather more valuable than goon. You are beginning to worry me Xorxes.

Besides what has been pointed out about the GF having no extra value with the cop gone, having a mafia killer is meant to help town. Why do you think the killer is more valuable than the goon?

I'm hypothesising that EMC was knowingly bussing Bob which gives him 2 possible roles. Their value is not particularly material, either emc thought he was of more value through role or ability or just plain wanted himself to survive rather than Bob.

emc did not vote for Bob until 3 minutes before EOD, when Bob was already leading him by 2 votes. If emc was bussing Bob, I think it was because Bob's lynch was almost certain, and emc did not want to look suspicious for staying off his counterwagon.

[Chaqa]

They were either town slips or fake town slips.

There's no such thing as a town slip.

How do you mean that? Do you think damo and Jamie are just as likely to not realize the relative value of the mafia roles as scum?

I think anything that can be construed as a town slip can be faked, and town slips are more likely to be fake than real. Scum slips (true ones) cannot be faked as they involved information only scum would know, whereas scum have all information town would know.

[rdrivera2005]

@Balki: Why have you not voted yet? Are you not sure who you scumread today?

My ranking, right now, is, scum to town:

Scum
Fox
rdrivera
Damo
kgray
Chaqa
Jamiet
EMC
xorx
Bozo
Flum
Bunny
Town

I'll vote in plenty of time. I don't feel any particular need to vote right this moment. I am still quite interested to see what rocks everyone decides to turn over today.

Why Bunny is so towny to you Balki? And why Xorxes too?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki: Why have you not voted yet? Are you not sure who you scumread today?

My ranking, right now, is, scum to town:

Scum
Fox
rdrivera
Damo
kgray
Chaqa
Jamiet
EMC
xorx
Bozo
Flum
Bunny
Town

I'll vote in plenty of time. I don't feel any particular need to vote right this moment. I am still quite interested to see what rocks everyone decides to turn over today.

Why Bunny is so towny to you Balki? And why Xorxes too?

I am placing a lot of weight on the vote yesterday, and you can see that in the rankings.

Bunny strikes me as especially towny for going against the grain and not seeming to try to please anyone. And I find the timing of his vote yesterday, and the flexibility he had to go either way, to suggest strongly he is Town.

Xorx gets credit for starting the wagon on Bob, but the impact is muted a bit because he missed most of the EOD when the time was most "readable" and he was more locked in to his vote at a time when Scum!Xorx could have made a change.

Also note: I'm focused specifically on the two non Patient Zero scumbots. Honestly, I haven't thought very hard about what to look for to zero in on Patient Zero. I guess, if we don't hit that person before we root out their teammates, hopefully we'll have information from their teammates that will help lead us there.

[bozotheclown]

On D3, Bob voted for xorxes when emc was the lead wagon by 2 votes, bringing xorxes to 1 vote behind emc. Later, Bob switched his vote to Chaqa when emc was again the leading wagon by 2 votes, bringing Chaqa to 1 vote behind emc. This was Bob's second to last post:

To be fair, I don't like how long emc has remained absent today. If he doesn't start participating soon... I dunno, we can lynch him but he still may not actually be scum. Maybe he's lurking for other reasons. But leaving it this long is bad.

If emc is scum, Bob could have been trying to distance from his pro-emc votes in case emc got lynched.

[bozotheclown]

There's no such thing as a town slip.

How do you mean that? Do you think damo and Jamie are just as likely to not realize the relative value of the mafia roles as scum?

I think anything that can be construed as a town slip can be faked, and town slips are more likely to be fake than real. Scum slips (true ones) cannot be faked as they involved information only scum would know, whereas scum have all information town would know.

OK, so you are saying that a "town slip" can't be distinguished from a "fake town slip", and therefore no one should be given town credit for a "town slip"?

[Foxcastle]

Flum, if I ask you to read a post about Balki and promise you that it's not the usual thing I've been saying, would you read it?

I'll read whatever you have to say about Balki, if you also reread Rdrivera and give me your opinion on him.

I don't see much in Day 1 that stands out. It's just Day 1 stuff.

On Day 2, he suggests being open to the Sulit/Bob slot, but as his last choice of the lurkers. I think it's a little too bold for scum to list his scummate last and not pad out the list some.

I don't find his reaction to Day 2 as scummy. The surprise at the hammer and the reaction to the hammer vote rules looks natural to me. I could see scum chiding town for mislynching Vecna, but Rdr's looks townie enough to me.

Day 3 sees him pressing Xorxes, mostly for the Vecna mislynch, but ultimately moving back from that. He steps a bit away from Kgray, and expresses interest in Bob (his other choices of Bo and Pjandy having been NK'd and dropped off, respectively). He says that he thinks that if Sulit had been town, it would have just been a modkill--I feel like this isn't something that scum would say? Although I don't have much of a basis for that. He says something about "if you aren't flip-flopping your town reads, you're either stupid or scum." There's some wisdom in that, but I don't like the tone there... It was not clear (at 43 minutes out) that Bob would be lynched, Chaqa was still an option, and he ultimately chooses EMC. He basically chose among the wagons that were available, and I think it's clear that he had stronger scum reads on me and Xorxes, and he stays on EMC; I kinda think that's townie. (Also, he told Balki he'd have joined a wagon on me but there wasn't time with 8 minutes to go; that makes me think he and Balki aren't scum together, and since I think Balki is scum...)

N3 he advances his concern on Kgray, I don't see where that comes from. I think his reactions to the current pressure he's under are reasonably townie.

I would put rdrivera mid-way in my lynch order. I'm not saying he's null, he's provided plenty of info, but I am not seeing anything that makes me think likely scum or definitely town. That's kinda the sweet-spot for scum, so I see the appeal of looking there and how it could easily make sense depending on your perspective.

[Chaqa]

@Balki: Why have you not voted yet? Are you not sure who you scumread today?

My ranking, right now, is, scum to town:

Scum
Fox
rdrivera
Damo
kgray
Chaqa
Jamiet
EMC
xorx
Bozo
Flum
Bunny
Town

I'll vote in plenty of time. I don't feel any particular need to vote right this moment. I am still quite interested to see what rocks everyone decides to turn over today.

I like this format. Can we get everyone to do this?