M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[xorxes]

That is the way it looks on the bot because Jamie switched his vote from Bob to emc in the previous post, but in real time those 2 votes showed up simultaneously, so I do not think there is much of a chance BunnyGo saw Jamie's vote switch before voting for Bob. I was waiting to see if BunnyGo would bring that up.

OK, so from his POV he was taking it from 6-4 to 7-3, with half an hour left. It could be a bus, but it seems unnecessary,

Consider this post 3 minutes before switching his vote to Bob:

BunnyGo you seem extremely agitated about saving Bob McBob from the lynch.

Are you so keen to avoid that outcome, that you might vote Fluminator with Drunk Bunny and me?

Drunk bunny said not to vote Flum...I'm agitated because I'm trying to figure out what to do. I don't like Chaqa, but I never do, and I don't think he's ever been scum. I'm happy EMC is back, and he's trying, but maybe too hard. I kinda liked Bob's posts when he finally showed up, and I want to give a student a chance, but his wagon is very towny.

He seems to be trying to find a reason to vote for Bob there. This was before you voted for Bob, and then he joined you.

[kgray]

Conclusions: I think the biggest question about damo's game is what relationship he has with Chaqa. Overall most of the things that ping me about damo boil down to the fact that he doesn't explain his reads (including on Chaqa). It makes it hard to tell if he's naturally changing his mind or trying to push an agenda. My best guess is still that Damo is town, but I'm not as confident in that read as I was before doing this iso.

So what you're saying is...
If Chaqa is town, then Damo is __________.
If Chaqa is scum, then Damo is __________.

I think if Chaqa is scum, then Damo is likely scum.

I don't think Chaqa being town tells me much about damo. I think it's possible that if Chaqa is town, then either 1. damo is scum, and thinks he can get people to mislynch Chaqa or 2. damo is town and is tunneling on Chaqa. I don't think either is more likely, at this point. This is why I'd like more explanations of damo's reads.

[bozotheclown]

I wish there was an easy way to find out who had what role in what past game, other than going through the bot, opening each game, see who was playing and somehow find out their role. There must be a way, because some people do it very quicky. Is there some way of doing it that I don't know of?

If you are talking about town or scum, the "Updated Mafia Scoresheet" is a good reference, although it has not been updated recently.

[kgray]

And, for what it's worth, I don't really think Chaqa is scum at this point. I just don't see scum-bob coming into the game and voting for his teammate like that. Bob's vote put Chaqa into second place.

[bozotheclown]

OK, so from his POV he was taking it from 6-4 to 7-3, with half an hour left. It could be a bus, but it seems unnecessary,

Consider this post 3 minutes before switching his vote to Bob:

Drunk bunny said not to vote Flum...I'm agitated because I'm trying to figure out what to do. I don't like Chaqa, but I never do, and I don't think he's ever been scum. I'm happy EMC is back, and he's trying, but maybe too hard. I kinda liked Bob's posts when he finally showed up, and I want to give a student a chance, but his wagon is very towny.

He seems to be trying to find a reason to vote for Bob there. This was before you voted for Bob, and then he joined you.

Then there is this post, 5 minutes after voting for Bob:

Re-reading Bob...a bunch of "anchor posts" then "I know you hate me" The "claws" post. Then "I hate Bunny" then a bunch of "Chaqa sucks posts" then buddies me about Balki, then buddies Flum? Both for us questioning him. And that's it...

Jeez, ok yup. Happy with my vote.

That is a big change in 8 minutes.

[Jamiet99uk]

Then there is this post, 5 minutes after voting for Bob:

Re-reading Bob...a bunch of "anchor posts" then "I know you hate me" The "claws" post. Then "I hate Bunny" then a bunch of "Chaqa sucks posts" then buddies me about Balki, then buddies Flum? Both for us questioning him. And that's it...

Jeez, ok yup. Happy with my vote.

That is a big change in 8 minutes.

Also, he didn't know what "anchor post" meant until he asked me to explain it to him, then suddenly once I do, he's convinced Bob is scum, when minutes earlier he'd been jumping around trying to save Bob.

I do find this quite suspect.

[Balki Bartokomous]

And, for what it's worth, I don't really think Chaqa is scum at this point. I just don't see scum-bob coming into the game and voting for his teammate like that. Bob's vote put Chaqa into second place.

This is a good point. I keep thinking about this, and then forgetting it.

I don't think it's ironclad though, because it is possible Bob felt he was likely to be lynched at that stage, or at least not likely to last very long. But this is generally Town!Chaqa indicative (to me).

[Fluminator]

Hmmm, maybe brain was right about Jamiet

[Fluminator]

Code: Select all

       Bal Boz Bun Cha Dam E.m Flu Fox Jam Kgr Rdr Xor
       
Day1:  2   2   2.  3   4*  1   5*  4*  7*  1   3   1

Day2:  1   2   1   4*  3       4   2   4*  1   1   3*

Day3:  2   2   8*  3   3.  4*  3   6*  5*  2   4   1

D3*:   2   1   6*  2   0   4*  2   5*  2*  1   2   0

I better not change my vote to complete my run. Sorry rdrivera

[Balki Bartokomous]

That is a big change in 8 minutes.

Right. But to me -- this makes it more likely that Bunny is Town. (assuming EMC is Town)

Because Bunny had no reason drawing him to the Bob wagon. If he is swcum, he was free to vote wherever he wanted to vote. Why would he vote for his teammate Bob there when he had fine reasons in the thread to vote elsewhere? I can't see Scum!Bunny doing that given that it was very uncertain who would flip.

If Scum won that lynch Day 3, their position was so much better. It is hard to play the game with no scum flips. Gettting the first scum flip is a big deal for town. I just don't see Scum!Bunny handing that to us when he had no fake reasons in the thread already pulling him to vote Bob.

[Jamiet99uk]

Hmmm, maybe brain was right about Jamiet

I'm town.

What'cha got?

[Balki Bartokomous]

I better not change my vote to complete my run. Sorry rdrivera

I enjoyed this post, FYI.

[Jamiet99uk]

That is a big change in 8 minutes.

Right. But to me -- this makes it more likely that Bunny is Town. (assuming EMC is Town)

Are you sure EMC is town?

What is the basis for that assumption?

He still looks scummy to me.

[Chaqa]

Tinfoil: Jamiet-rivera-xorxes for three scum including the mystery one?

[kgray]

And, for what it's worth, I don't really think Chaqa is scum at this point. I just don't see scum-bob coming into the game and voting for his teammate like that. Bob's vote put Chaqa into second place.

This is a good point. I keep thinking about this, and then forgetting it.

I don't think it's ironclad though, because it is possible Bob felt he was likely to be lynched at that stage, or at least not likely to last very long. But this is generally Town!Chaqa indicative (to me).

Sure, and there's also the possibility that emc is also scum and the current wagons bob could choose from were both his teammates. But that seems unlikely.

[Fluminator]

It feels like you throw a lot of shade at a lot of people, but reading your iso, you do townread people as well, so maybe it's nothing.

[Balki Bartokomous]

That is a big change in 8 minutes.

Right. But to me -- this makes it more likely that Bunny is Town. (assuming EMC is Town)

Are you sure EMC is town?

What is the basis for that assumption?

He still looks scummy to me.

Yeah, it's a problem if EMC is scum. Honestly, most of my analysis post-EOD3 is assuming EMC is Town.

One of the reasons I feel like he is town is because of all of the late shifts in voting in that last hour. It really had the feel, to me, of people voting with an agenda. It really felt that way live. Makes the most sense to me if EMC is Town and it was a 7-6 vote lynching Town over Scum.

I also liked his post-vote post about his attention on, I forget who...xorx and rdrivera maybe? It just seemed like the kind of thing that a Townie with a puzzle to solve would be thinking about, and harder to come up with if he is a Scumbucket who just survived a lynch by the skin of his teeth.

But, I'll admit, it's far from certain that EMC is Town.

[bozotheclown]

That is a big change in 8 minutes.

Right. But to me -- this makes it more likely that Bunny is Town. (assuming EMC is Town)

Because Bunny had no reason drawing him to the Bob wagon. If he is swcum, he was free to vote wherever he wanted to vote. Why would he vote for his teammate Bob there when he had fine reasons in the thread to vote elsewhere? I can't see Scum!Bunny doing that given that it was very uncertain who would flip.

If Scum won that lynch Day 3, their position was so much better. It is hard to play the game with no scum flips. Gettting the first scum flip is a big deal for town. I just don't see Scum!Bunny handing that to us when he had no fake reasons in the thread already pulling him to vote Bob.

Maybe the lynch was still uncertain, but at the time BunnyGo voted for Bob, a Bob lynch was starting to look likely.

[Fluminator]

Bozo, can you compile the case for me on bunnygo? I haven't been reading posts about scum-bunny too closely, and don't want to search for them.

So far I've only got it "looks like he might have bussed"

[Fluminator]

I thought they would Kill me last night. And the fact that I am still alive makes me a bit concerned about my Fox read. Though, we still have Watcher alive, so dodging Watcher might be the reason.

Worcej was widely townread, and he cast an important vote last phase, so that kill makes sense.

Tend to agree. On the "why are they still alive" scale, xorxes and Flum are higher than you.

Just not let them to be alive closer to mylo/lylo.

Mylo is two mislynches away. When's it close enough to mylo before you push for this?