M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[xorxes]

Seriously Xorxes?

You think someone logging in and seeing that had happened would me most likely to immediately think "oh, the GMs must have got the rules all wrong and ended the phase by mistake" ?

Firstly that's rather insulting to our present GMs, and second of all, I'm not inclined to agree.

I would make sure to check what the rules actually were before reacting in any way. Different people will react in different ways. rivera apparently reacted by being surprized that someone had changed the rules.

I wasn't annoyed with the rule change, but with dumb people lynching Vecna. And your lack of reaction on it still give me a lot of suspect about you.

What reaction would you expect me to have? Some crazy rant about how childish Vecna was? When have you seen me do that?

[xorxes]

I wish there was an easy way to find out who had what role in what past game, other than going through the bot, opening each game, see who was playing and somehow find out their role. There must be a way, because some people do it very quicky. Is there some way of doing it that I don't know of?

[Balki Bartokomous]

I wish there was an easy way to find out who had what role in what past game, other than going through the bot, opening each game, see who was playing and somehow find out their role. There must be a way, because some people do it very quicky. Is there some way of doing it that I don't know of?

An index of GOD threads would help. If you log into QT, sometimes they show you a list of the last QTs that you've used. Maybe that is a quick way?

[Chaqa]

I wish there was an easy way to find out who had what role in what past game, other than going through the bot, opening each game, see who was playing and somehow find out their role. There must be a way, because some people do it very quicky. Is there some way of doing it that I don't know of?

I have a rough idea of a sub-site for our mafia game history I want to make as a side project, but the time eludes me. Perhaps someday.

[rdrivera2005]

Misapplied as in used the wrong rule.

The point is that if you are scum then it is possible you were lurking, you were perfectly aware of what was going on, but then you showed up after the fact with rightful indignation pretending you didn't know the rule so you did not have to admit you were partly responsible.

First, I admitted my responsibility on end voting without checking the rules. And second, have you ever seen I fake indignation before? This isn't something I do, because I just don't know how to do it.

I don't really know the answer to that. Do you remember what your last scum games were?

Last game I was SK don't think it counts. Before that I think on double Mafia where I was cop scanned N1 and before that I think on the Gladiator game. But you have a lot of games to look at, lol.

[Chaqa]

I wish there was an easy way to find out who had what role in what past game, other than going through the bot, opening each game, see who was playing and somehow find out their role. There must be a way, because some people do it very quicky. Is there some way of doing it that I don't know of?

An index of GOD threads would help. If you log into QT, sometimes they show you a list of the last QTs that you've used. Maybe that is a quick way?

I have all the QTs going back to Mafia 1 in my account. I coiuld make a list.

[rdrivera2005]

I would make sure to check what the rules actually were before reacting in any way. Different people will react in different ways. rivera apparently reacted by being surprized that someone had changed the rules.

I wasn't annoyed with the rule change, but with dumb people lynching Vecna. And your lack of reaction on it still give me a lot of suspect about you.

What reaction would you expect me to have? Some crazy rant about how childish Vecna was? When have you seen me do that?

Reaction during the EOD. Retracting the End vote like Balki did. You were online and seemed just fine with ending Vecna.

[xorxes]

Ha! I found something interesting. M51 was rivera's last scum game (if I searched correctly). This was his opening post:

First decent post, with 9 Female characters Jack can win on N5 (not likely, but still possible), so having Jekill/Hide alive for some days is probably best for town.

Vecna style is really annoying as I don't understand half the things he writes.

This was his opening post this game:

That's a really interesting question, probably the only relevant one until now.

And hi to all by the way.

I knew it reminded me of something, and this is what it was. It was noticeable because I very rarely get a good review from rivera like that. When he is town he is very critical of everything I do.

[xorxes]

I wasn't annoyed with the rule change, but with dumb people lynching Vecna. And your lack of reaction on it still give me a lot of suspect about you.

What reaction would you expect me to have? Some crazy rant about how childish Vecna was? When have you seen me do that?

Reaction during the EOD. Retracting the End vote like Balki did. You were online and seemed just fine with ending Vecna.

I was fine with ending because I thought he was scum. It wasn't a policy thing or pressure at that point.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ha! I found something interesting. M51 was rivera's last scum game (if I searched correctly). This was his opening post:

First decent post, with 9 Female characters Jack can win on N5 (not likely, but still possible), so having Jekill/Hide alive for some days is probably best for town.

Vecna style is really annoying as I don't understand half the things he writes.

This was his opening post this game:

That's a really interesting question, probably the only relevant one until now.

And hi to all by the way.

I knew it reminded me of something, and this is what it was. It was noticeable because I very rarely get a good review from rivera like that. When he is town he is very critical of everything I do.

Can you give an example of a game where you are both town, and he does nothing but criticize you?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Ha! I found something interesting. M51 was rivera's last scum game (if I searched correctly). This was his opening post:

First decent post, with 9 Female characters Jack can win on N5 (not likely, but still possible), so having Jekill/Hide alive for some days is probably best for town.

Vecna style is really annoying as I don't understand half the things he writes.

This was his opening post this game:

That's a really interesting question, probably the only relevant one until now.

And hi to all by the way.

I knew it reminded me of something, and this is what it was. It was noticeable because I very rarely get a good review from rivera like that. When he is town he is very critical of everything I do.

I find this persuasive.

This is a real thing. Scum generally don't like to antagonize people they view as threats.

Between that and rdrivera's voting behavior Day 3, he is in my lynchpool. He's swimming around there with Foxy, Damo, and maybe Chaqa at the moment.

[xorxes]

Can you give an example of a game where you are both town, and he does nothing but criticize you?

Last game we were both town.

[xorxes]

Can you give an example of a game where you are both town, and he does nothing but criticize you?

Last game we were both town.

No, he was SK. M1009 we were both town.

[rdrivera2005]

Ha! I found something interesting. M51 was rivera's last scum game (if I searched correctly). This was his opening post:

First decent post, with 9 Female characters Jack can win on N5 (not likely, but still possible), so having Jekill/Hide alive for some days is probably best for town.

Vecna style is really annoying as I don't understand half the things he writes.

This was his opening post this game:

That's a really interesting question, probably the only relevant one until now.

And hi to all by the way.

I knew it reminded me of something, and this is what it was. It was noticeable because I very rarely get a good review from rivera like that. When he is town he is very critical of everything I do.

Xorxes, you are picking things to try to shade me. People usually have the same style either as town or scum and I just don't have nothing to say about it. I have been as open and towny this game as I can be and if you want to push a wagon on me it's fine, I deserve it for my last day, but this things you are picking are just annoying.
I think you are scum, I asked you questions, didn't like your answers and tried to get a wagon on you. This is what I expect town Xorxes to do.

[bozotheclown]

He took it from 5-4 to 6-3.

That is the way it looks on the bot because Jamie switched his vote from Bob to emc in the previous post, but in real time those 2 votes showed up simultaneously, so I do not think there is much of a chance BunnyGo saw Jamie's vote switch before voting for Bob. I was waiting to see if BunnyGo would bring that up.

OK, so from his POV he was taking it from 6-4 to 7-3, with half an hour left. It could be a bus, but it seems unnecessary,

Consider this post 3 minutes before switching his vote to Bob:

BunnyGo you seem extremely agitated about saving Bob McBob from the lynch.

Are you so keen to avoid that outcome, that you might vote Fluminator with Drunk Bunny and me?

Drunk bunny said not to vote Flum...I'm agitated because I'm trying to figure out what to do. I don't like Chaqa, but I never do, and I don't think he's ever been scum. I'm happy EMC is back, and he's trying, but maybe too hard. I kinda liked Bob's posts when he finally showed up, and I want to give a student a chance, but his wagon is very towny.

[xorxes]

Ha! I found something interesting. M51 was rivera's last scum game (if I searched correctly). This was his opening post:

First decent post, with 9 Female characters Jack can win on N5 (not likely, but still possible), so having Jekill/Hide alive for some days is probably best for town.

Vecna style is really annoying as I don't understand half the things he writes.

This was his opening post this game:

That's a really interesting question, probably the only relevant one until now.

And hi to all by the way.

I knew it reminded me of something, and this is what it was. It was noticeable because I very rarely get a good review from rivera like that. When he is town he is very critical of everything I do.

Xorxes, you are picking things to try to shade me. People usually have the same style either as town or scum and I just don't have nothing to say about it. I have been as open and towny this game as I can be and if you want to push a wagon on me it's fine, I deserve it for my last day, but this things you are picking are just annoying.
I think you are scum, I asked you questions, didn't like your answers and tried to get a wagon on you. This is what I expect town Xorxes to do.

It is not your normal style, that's what made it remarkable to me.

[kgray]

Well, I reread damo. It didn't tell me as much as I was hoping it would, but here it is anyway:

damo ISO:

Day 1
• damo's townreads: Balki, xorxes, rdr, kgray, bozo
• damo's scumreads: worcej, Vecna, temasek, emc
• votes Flum because Flum tries to get a wagon going on Chaqa
• Seems very opposed to lynching Chaqa, although doesn't say why. Initially implies he thinks Chaqa is town because Flum voted for Chaqa for reasons damo doesn't agree with, but xorxes mentions Flum could be bussing and damo seems to accept that. Still, he later continues to question votes on Chaqa.
• votes Tem to apply more pressure
• last-minute vote switch from Tem to worcej and back

Night 1
• This is an interesting post:

How many scum were on Tem? 1? 2?
Chaqa?
kgray?

I was previously one of damo's explicit townreads and damo seemed very opposed to lynching Chaqa, so putting this pressure on Chaqa is odd. Out of the Tem voters, why us two? Rdr and bozo were also damo's townreads, but Damo hadn't mentioned Jaimie or brain at all, or given any indication that he thought they were town. Singling out Chaqa and me is strange.
• Explains that his last-minute jump to worcej was to see if scum on Tem would be tempted to vote worcej to save scum-Tem.
• Townreads worjec based on worcej's behavior at the end of day 1.

Day 2
• Another vote for Flum.
• Very opposed to end voting.
• This post where damo assumes worcej is town is kind of suspicious, now that worcej is confirmed town:

How about this for a theory?

There is always an example of busing on day 1.

Top 3 wagons were TvTvT ( worcej the only unknown but widely townread).

Xorxes never busses.

Hence EMC and Flum are a scumpair.

Voila!

I know he presents this as speculation, but it seems a bit like damo already knew worcej was town and is using that to set up emc and Flum.
• Quickly backs off his anti-end vote stance.
• Votes bo for pressure (second time he's used this reason), then votes Vecna and ends (to not risk a tie), and is apparently not around for the end of the day.

Night 2
• damo's wild guess at a scumteam: Flum EMC Chaqius & someone else (pandy?)

Day 3
• Willing to vote Flum, emc or Chaqa, and starts off with Chaqa.
• Unvotes Chaqa because he thinks scum-Chaqa wouldn't have voted for Tem the way Chaqa did. Most people don't agree with this, it seems. Damo doesn't go back to Chaqa even though Chaqa remains a viable wagon for a while, and Damo continues to scumread him.
• Gives a reads list on page 100.
• Damo mentions bob twice, once is in that reads list, where he says bob hasn't had enough time yet, and once to say that he doesn't think bob is town and Flum is scum.
• Votes Flum, then emc (both times, Chaqa is a viable wagon).
• At the end of the day, damo tries to rally people back to emc. Knowing bob was scum, this could be damo trying to protect his teammate, but admittedly it does seem unlikely scum would be this obvious...

Night 3
• damo's updated scumreads:

Remaining 3 scum are

Chaqa + 2 from

Balki
kgray
rdr
Xorxes

(in that order of likeliness)

It's not clear what emc or Flum did to be moved off damo's scum reads, or why these people moved up. It would be nice if damo could provide a few explanations into his reads....

Conclusions: I think the biggest question about damo's game is what relationship he has with Chaqa. Overall most of the things that ping me about damo boil down to the fact that he doesn't explain his reads (including on Chaqa). It makes it hard to tell if he's naturally changing his mind or trying to push an agenda. My best guess is still that Damo is town, but I'm not as confident in that read as I was before doing this iso.

[Foxcastle]

This is how many votes each player made on each day. The . indicates there was an unvote in there, and the * indicates that they voted a player more than once (i.e., moving Vecna to Brain to Vecna to Brain is 4* votes). D3* is Day 3 endgame, starting with EMC's move to xorxes at 2:17.

The idea was, given Day 1 and 2 were TvT, scum had free rein to move around or stay put as they saw fit, but with a scum wagon on Day 3, what would look different and did anyone stand out? (Day 2 was hammered, so maybe it's worth excluding. But it's here for completeness.)

I did not see anything especially useful come out of this that wasn't already visible. But it was a pain to get the spacing right, so I'm not going to just delete it. Bunny stands out as having gone from few votes on Days 1 and 2 to many votes on Day 3; other have noted him, if he's scum, he was bussing, but tried on a few different wagons before he got there.

Code: Select all

       Bal Boz Bun Cha Dam E.m Flu Fox Jam Kgr Rdr Xor
       
Day1:  2   2   2.  3   4*  1   5*  4*  7*  1   3   1

Day2:  1   2   1   4*  3       4   2   4*  1   1   3*

Day3:  2   2   8*  3   3.  4*  3   6*  5*  2   4   1

D3*:   2   1   6*  2   0   4*  2   5*  2*  1   2   0

[bozotheclown]

I think we can only be sure of this when emc flips, but I believe there were one or two people bussing. But this still gives a better probability to find scum on emc wagon.

This is not a logically correct statement. If you think there were 1 or 2 people bussing, that means you think there were 1 or 2 people not bussing (not counting Bob). That would imply that there is an equal probability of finding scum on emc's wagon.

Emc wagon is smaller and on my POV it's even more likely as I know I am not scum (and I think 1 busser not counting the Traitor is the most likely).

OK, I had not considered the size of the wagons, but applying your point about your POV, from the POV from those of us on Bob's wagon, it is 6-6 for the 2 wagons.

[Foxcastle]

Conclusions: I think the biggest question about damo's game is what relationship he has with Chaqa. Overall most of the things that ping me about damo boil down to the fact that he doesn't explain his reads (including on Chaqa). It makes it hard to tell if he's naturally changing his mind or trying to push an agenda. My best guess is still that Damo is town, but I'm not as confident in that read as I was before doing this iso.

So what you're saying is...
If Chaqa is town, then Damo is __________.
If Chaqa is scum, then Damo is __________.