M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Foxcastle]

My EON reads.

I had been townreading Balkie while also warning about the need to watch him closely. While I cannot point to anything specifically scummy on him, I am changing my recommendation from watching him to lynching him. He's scum.

Chaqa and EMC are also in my lynch pool. They are weaker scumleans. Excepting the Big B, I don't have a lot of strong scum reads, unfortunately.

Worcej I have gone back and forth on. He could be scum, but remains a townlean for now.

Flum, Xorxes, Jamiet, Bunny, and Damo are stronger townreads.

Rdrivera, Bozo, and Kgray have kinda slipped off my radar. I still feel they are mostly townie, but of the three of them, Bozo is the one that stands out to me as needing more scrutiny.

[rdrivera2005]

Don't have much time as I am working. In the remote case I die tonight look carefully at Flum and Xorxes. Fox is my main scumread and emc is on the list too. Damo is another one that deserves a closer look.

[Chaqa]

Balki's EOD3 READS - Part 1

Some reads based on the EOD3, which I consider to be the most readable stage of the game so far, given our knowledge of the flip, and the fact that it was dynamic and few people had committed reads on the players up for lynch:

Worcej - Town

Worcej takes Bob to 3 on page 109 at t minus 1:15. Vote count here:

Vote Count Day 3
e.m.c^42 (3) Jamiet99uk bozotheclown damo666
Chaqa (5) Foxcastle kgray BobMcBob Fluminator BunnyGo
xorxes (2) Chaqa
BobMcBob (2) xorxes rdrivera2005
Pjandy (1) worcej
Foxcastle (1) Balki Bartokomous
Rivera (1) emc

Explanation seems sincere:

Bob though - I don't like his comments so far this phase. He wants us to wait for him to join? He expresses a comment that is along the lines we should be thankful he even joined? Sorry - like I already said, a warm body that isn't participating is worse than a mod-kill imo.

And he stays there all the way through the 7-6 lynch. I think that is an unlikely bus. Not impossible, but unlikely.

Xorxes - Slight Town

Xorxes starts the Bob wagon on page 95, after a short discussion with rdrivera. It seems decently sincere. And I think it was a wagon that had some potential to take off given where the state of the game was -- generally anti lurker with a pretty uncertain lynch. I feel like that's a town vote on scum, but I feel like it is less conclusive than worcej because Xorxes was not around much during the End of Day shifts and drama.

Chaqa - Scum (but I still lean Town for other reasons)

Okay, I think that behavioral stuff in the thread suggests that Chaqa is Town. And I think that Chaqa is Town. And Bob's vote on Chaqa reinforces that. Chaqa just hasn't been accommodating or pleasing in any way this game, and he is routinely going against the grain and sticking his neck out.

But, his Day 3 EOD behavior looks bad.

Chaqa on page 96, a few hours before EOD, lising his vote preferences:

I would be willing to join a wagon on Sulit/Bob if xorxes is unviable.

Chaqa, on page 105, listing his vote preferences:

Xorxes, Balki, Flum, Bob.

EMC over me, of course.

With 37 minutes left, and a Bob wagon starting to gain steam, Chaqa votes for Bob, true to his earlier suggestions, putting Bob in the lead 5-4:

So, Bob or EMC?

I have a tentative town read on EMC and a moderate scum read on Bob. But the voters on Bob are generally my other scum reads (xorx, worcej, Fox) - though worcej may be right that I mislabeled him on Day 2 w/r/t end voting.

I'm generally null-ish on the EMC voters.

Meh.

##Vote Bob

I'd vote for either of them over me.

Then in the final minutes, with Bob ahead by 3, Chaqa moves from Bob to EMC, to put EMC within 1 vote. And that's where it ends. Page 118:

I genuinely don't want to die right now so ##vote bob

Sorry man

##Vote EMC

^^town EMC wouldn't do this.

It bears many hallmarks of a scum attempt to save his partner. Chaqa had expressed multiple times in the thread that he thought Bob was scummier than EMC, and yet, when Bob was about to go down, Chaqa moved his vote to lynch EMC over Bob, in a way that Scum!Chaqa very well might have thought would shift the lynch.

@Chaqa, can you take some time and really dig into your thinking in these final moments. This is a bad vote, given what we know now.

EMC's "I genuinely don't want to die right now" post seemed VERY out of character for town!EMC. I've played and GM'd and just in general talked with him enough both in and out of game that it spooked me. Not much more to it than that.

If I were scum why would I stick my neck out and not just take the super town points for being a deciding vote on Bob?

[bozotheclown]

My top suspects are still emc and BunnyGo. BunnyGo for potential bussing D3 and for the potential scum slip D1.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@kgray, I said start from page 95 because that is where the Bob wagon starts.

[brainbomb]

PLEASE HOLD PHASE HAS ENDED

[brainbomb]

1920
Albert sat back down flicking cigar ashes on the ground and spitting a chunk of tobacco leaf from his lips.
"You have my full attention Paul, but this sounds like some idiotic banter".
Paul paused a moment. Saying what sounded like a prayer to the others but he knew the words.
"Then after the sixty-two weeks the Messiah will be cut off and have nothing, and the people of the prince who is to come will destroy the city and the sanctuary And its end will come with a flood; even to the end there will be war; desolations are determined."
He began to roll up his city map. Albert and Heiter glanced at each other confused.
Paul banded the map into a tube carefully. From his pocket he produced a very small soapstone figurine of the Christo de Redentor upon the table. Other cafe patrons looked over and began to cough, staring at the figurine. To them it was just a toy.
Albert chuckled. "Very nice little toy you have there Paul. He wiped his nose with a handkerchief. Is Christ the Redeemer in miniature size for all now?
Paul smiled. "I'm afraid christ takes a nap every 100 years, hard to redeem the sick and dying".
Heiter looked confused and pushed his tea aside. "I really don't have time for games. I just wanted to build a nice monument to honor Christ. I don't need all this drama and flair."
Paul lit a cigarette and put on a hat that looked out of place and time. "Well then my friends, let's build a statue. We are short on time, we should seek out the services of a Romanian known as Gheorghe Leonida. He has a talent for sculpting facial features. Assuming the spanish flu hasn't taken him yet.
Paul puffed his cigarette as the other two men at the table stood to leave. Albert shook his head again in confusion at the whole absurd display by Paul. He stood holding his stomach, feeling ill suddenly as he staggered his way to the bathroom.
Paul pulled a pistol from his bags. He followed Albert Caquot to the bathroom where he shot him in the back of the head spraying blood across the sink and walls.
"I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth"

worcej has died, he was Albert Caquot, a Vanilla Town

[brainbomb]

You may now post

[Balki Bartokomous]

RIP worcej

Gotta go parent. Let's get scum today.

[Chaqa]

##Vote xorxes

Jives with my Bob was bussed theory.

[Foxcastle]

RIP worcej

Gotta go parent. Let's get scum today.

Agreed. ##VOTE BALKI

[Fluminator]

I think scum are killing people under no danger of being lynched in the future

Bad vote Chaqa, we don't worry about bussing quite yet.
Since people just think Chaqa is stupid instead of scum, I'll break from him for a bit.

##Vote Rdrivera

[Jamiet99uk]

RIP, Worcej

[Jamiet99uk]

RIP worcej

Gotta go parent. Let's get scum today.

My what a novel and creative suggestion.

[Chaqa]

I think scum are killing people under no danger of being lynched in the future

Bad vote Chaqa, we don't worry about bussing quite yet.
Since people just think Chaqa is stupid instead of scum, I'll break from him for a bit.

##Vote Rdrivera

I'm not completely against a rivera vote, but I want to do a deeper dive into some VCA today. I would much prefer to vote for someone who was not on the Temasek wagon Day 1. One of these six, with brief reasoning until I expand on it later:
- xorxes - Possible Bob busser. Wasted Day 1 vote. Latecomer to Vecna hammer.
- EMC - Mainly informative. Clears up Day 3. Still strikes me as off.
- Fox - Widely scumread. Day 1 non-Tem voter and suspicious Day 3 actions.
- Balki - Surprisingly still alive. I also feel he is buddying me a bit.
- Flum - Obvscum
- Bunny - See mine and others Day 3 analysis, as well as his random Day 2 vote for bo.

[Fluminator]

DAY ONE FINAL VOTES

Temasek22 (7) brainbomb, kgray, Jamiet99uk, bozotheclown, rdrivera2005, Chaqa, damo666
worcej (4) BunnyGo, Fluminator, Balki Bartokomous, Foxcastle
brainbomb (3) Vecna, bo_sox48, Temasek22
Foxcastle (1) worcej
Chaqa (1) xorxes
No‑Lynch (1) Pjandy
Fluminator (1) e.m.c^42

Non-vote: Bob McBob (sulit)


DAY TWO FINAL VOTES

Vecna (9) Balki Bartokomous, kgray, damo666, Fluminator, Foxcastle, Chaqa, xorxes, Vecna, bozotheclown
Pjandy (2) worcej, rdrivera2005
bo_sox48 (2) BunnyGo, Jamiet99uk

Non-votes: bo_sox48, e.m.c^42, Pjandy, BobMcBob


DAY THREE FINAL VOTES

BobMcBob (7) xorxes, worcej, bozotheclown, BunnyGo, Balki Bartokomous, Fluminator, e.m.c^42
e.m.c^42 (6) damo666, rdrivera2005, Jamiet99uk, kgray, Foxcastle, Chaqa
Chaqa (1) BobMcBob

Non-votes: Pjandy

[Balki Bartokomous]

RIP worcej

Gotta go parent. Let's get scum today.

Agreed. ##VOTE BALKI

You should post a reason that you think I am scum, now that you say that you do.

Should be something other than "Well, he's sure playing towny, but that Balki is tricky, it could all be part of a sneaky plan."

[Fluminator]

I think scum are killing people under no danger of being lynched in the future

Bad vote Chaqa, we don't worry about bussing quite yet.
Since people just think Chaqa is stupid instead of scum, I'll break from him for a bit.

##Vote Rdrivera

I'm not completely against a rivera vote, but I want to do a deeper dive into some VCA today. I would much prefer to vote for someone who was not on the Temasek wagon Day 1. One of these six, with brief reasoning until I expand on it later:
- xorxes - Possible Bob busser. Wasted Day 1 vote. Latecomer to Vecna hammer.
- EMC - Mainly informative. Clears up Day 3. Still strikes me as off.
- Fox - Widely scumread. Day 1 non-Tem voter and suspicious Day 3 actions.
- Balki - Surprisingly still alive. I also feel he is buddying me a bit.
- Flum - Obvscum
- Bunny - See mine and others Day 3 analysis, as well as his random Day 2 vote for bo.

Why?

[Balki Bartokomous]

##Vote xorxes

Jives with my Bob was bussed theory.

Why do you think Bob was Bussed?

[Balki Bartokomous]

I think scum are killing people under no danger of being lynched in the future

Bad vote Chaqa, we don't worry about bussing quite yet.
Since people just think Chaqa is stupid instead of scum, I'll break from him for a bit.

[][]Vote Rdrivera

I thought they would Kill me last night. And the fact that I am still alive makes me a bit concerned about my Fox read. Though, we still have Watcher alive, so dodging Watcher might be the reason.

Worcej was widely townread, and he cast an important vote last phase, so that kill makes sense.