M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[worcej]

Why do you find it interesting? Either I'm scum, and I'm going to fight it, or I'm wrongly accused town, and the right thing to do is fight it. That doesn't change that choosing to pick out those five points (even if you can justify a reason) is flawed. In either case, the idea that I should be "owning my portion" is irrelevant—I've said I realize that D3 looks bad for me, I'm not apologizing for it, I don't even know what it would mean to "own my portion."

I don't think there is anything flawed with looking at the 4 people who moved off Bob and continued to try to make the votes close near EOD.

I hear your reasons for why, but I struggle to see the town logic in it because it creates more opportunities for vote manipulation by the scum.

The town logic is that I know you're drawing a false conclusion and am trying to help you fix yourself.

Fox, in one sentence, what conclusion am I drawing?

[Chaqa]

Right, but the adult way to take care of this is to say that originally and then I'd feel shame/bad.

Using swear words and threats does nothing but make me laugh at how something as trivial as that cause such distress.

You really didn't understand why we took issue with it?

Now see, *that* makes me laugh.

I understand why you would be upset, but I am an asshole/bully when it comes to things like these. Seeing childish responses from people makes me want to poke more because I see it apparently bothered you significantly.

In regards to the game, it also helps because now you're belligerent/angry. It's hard to be fake when you are that way.

Fair.

[Foxcastle]

I don't think there is anything flawed with looking at the 4 people who moved off Bob and continued to try to make the votes close near EOD.

I hear your reasons for why, but I struggle to see the town logic in it because it creates more opportunities for vote manipulation by the scum.

The town logic is that I know you're drawing a false conclusion and am trying to help you fix yourself.

Fox, in one sentence, what conclusion am I drawing?

This one:

In order of scuminess of the above people, I would rank them Fox > Jaime > rdr >>> Bunny.

[Chaqa]

FWIW, I find it very interesting that Bunny voted sulit on Day 1. In my experience, Mafia will often vote for their teammates early on Day 1 to try to set up distance between them.

On Day 2, he no longer is voting for sulit/Bob.

On Day 3, he does join the Bob wagon to make it 6-3-3 (Bob-emc-chaqa), but then after Fox moves to EMC, Bunny moves to Balki. He does move back to Bob soon, but there is something a little fishy there I'd like to keep an eye on.

[brainbomb]

1
hour
remains

[xorxes]

FWIW, I find it very interesting that Bunny voted sulit on Day 1. In my experience, Mafia will often vote for their teammates early on Day 1 to try to set up distance between them.

On Day 2, he no longer is voting for sulit/Bob.

On Day 3, he does join the Bob wagon to make it 6-3-3 (Bob-emc-chaqa), but then after Fox moves to EMC, Bunny moves to Balki. He does move back to Bob soon, but there is something a little fishy there I'd like to keep an eye on.

Yep. On D2 there was no sulit/Bob, but the D1 vote was strange.

[Balki Bartokomous]

FWIW, I find it very interesting that Bunny voted sulit on Day 1. In my experience, Mafia will often vote for their teammates early on Day 1 to try to set up distance between them.

On Day 2, he no longer is voting for sulit/Bob.

On Day 3, he does join the Bob wagon to make it 6-3-3 (Bob-emc-chaqa), but then after Fox moves to EMC, Bunny moves to Balki. He does move back to Bob soon, but there is something a little fishy there I'd like to keep an eye on.

Yes, but the ultimate vote on Bob is pretty decisive, and Scum!Bunny would have had flexibility to do something else. I think that, if EMC is Town, Bunny is vewy vewy likely a towny bunny.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Damn, now I have to write a whole thing about my reads.

I am concerned that I will be NKed tonight.

Argh.

[Fluminator]

Probably will be at a phone meeting over EON

Like I've complained multiple times, the final scum who doesn't know the partners is hard to read, and I don't know who that one would be. I'm hunting for the scum who know who the other scum are and hoping we catch the other one on the way. Every townread has an * because of this >_>

Balki Bartokomous - Town, he hasn't really done anything wrong yet, and he's continued doing pro-town things like voting scum at an important time yesterday. I’m not super familiar with his scum play, but some players hype it up to be absolutely identical. My mantra is usually “if scum want to bus, let them finish doing it before lynching them.”

bozotheclown - Null, I have no idea, I never do with him because I still think he's a robot irl. Probably town by poe, and his switch off EMC to Bob and staying on it is good town points. Doesn't seem like bussing.

BunnyGo - I already explained I think he's a pretty likely town at this point.

Chaqa - Too scummy to be scum is never a thing.

damo666 - He was a strong town read awhile ago, but he's kind of been coasting on that not towning it up since then for me. He's probably demoted to null, although he goes back to a town if I'm somehow wrong on Chaqa.

e.m.c^42 - Town, his catchup was good, and I don't see it being scum vs. scum at the end. He's had a few posts where I don't see him being scum either.

Foxcastle - Null-Scum, suspect eod behavior, but it's not impossible it was confused town.

Jamiet99uk - Similar to damo, in that he hasn't done a lot town indicative since first town reading him. EOD wasn't the best. I don't think he's a good candidate tomorrow for lynch.

kgray - I hope she's not scum, I feel like we've been in agreement and on the same page a lot which makes me think she has a town mind. She’s definitely not afraid to post. I haven’t seen any good case to lynch her yet, so I’m comfortable saying she’s town.

rdrivera2005 - He's been the one of the main people I haven't really got town vibes from throughout the game, his eod behavior also doesn't help. Slight scum

worcej - The flavius catchups sometimes seem a little forced, but I think he's still above the null line in townie.

xorxes - Like Balki, he hasn't really done anything wrong yet, and I don't see much room for him on a scum team. Kickstarting the Bob wagon is good town points. I recognize the room for bussing, but not there yet.

Town: Bunny, Xorx, Balki, kdray, worjce, EMC
Townish: Jamiet, Damo, Bozo
Scummy: Rdrivera, Fox, and Chaqa

[worcej]

The town logic is that I know you're drawing a false conclusion and am trying to help you fix yourself.

Fox, in one sentence, what conclusion am I drawing?

This one:

In order of scuminess of the above people, I would rank them Fox > Jaime > rdr >>> Bunny.

Using my own words wasn't my goal by asking you that.

You are acting as if I am saying you are scum by attacking the analysis and saying it is flawed. It is important to note that I did not explicitly state that you are scum. What I concluded with was this:

So, that all being said: In order of scuminess of the above people, I would rank them Fox > Jaime > rdr >>> Bunny. My attention is on Fox/Jaime/rdr for the lynch on D4.

And this was only the vote movements around Bob.

[xorxes]

BobMcBob (7) xorxes worcej bozotheclown BunnyGo Balki Bartokomous Fluminator e.m.c^42
e.m.c^42 (6) damo666 rdrivera2005 Jamiet99uk kgray Foxcastle Chaqa
Chaqa (1) BobMcBob

If there was no intentional bussing, I think the most likely scum voting for emc are rivera and Chaqa. In that case emc is not patient zero.

If emc is either patient zero or one of the other scum, then it's more open. rivera likely town in this case because going from bussing Bob to bussing emc would make very little sense even for someone like him who likes to bus.

I think worcej and Bunny are likely town. bozo is flying under the radar a bit, could be patient zero, unlikely to be normal scum. Balki and Flum I can see as bussers, who knows, not extremely likely. Both can easily be patient zero as well.

I have to check something Fox said about damo, but I'm still townreading both for now. I think Jamie and kgray are also not non-pz scum.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Balki's EOD3 READS - Part 1

Some reads based on the EOD3, which I consider to be the most readable stage of the game so far, given our knowledge of the flip, and the fact that it was dynamic and few people had committed reads on the players up for lynch:

Worcej - Town

Worcej takes Bob to 3 on page 109 at t minus 1:15. Vote count here:

Vote Count Day 3
e.m.c^42 (3) Jamiet99uk bozotheclown damo666
Chaqa (5) Foxcastle kgray BobMcBob Fluminator BunnyGo
xorxes (2) Chaqa
BobMcBob (2) xorxes rdrivera2005
Pjandy (1) worcej
Foxcastle (1) Balki Bartokomous
Rivera (1) emc

Explanation seems sincere:

Bob though - I don't like his comments so far this phase. He wants us to wait for him to join? He expresses a comment that is along the lines we should be thankful he even joined? Sorry - like I already said, a warm body that isn't participating is worse than a mod-kill imo.

And he stays there all the way through the 7-6 lynch. I think that is an unlikely bus. Not impossible, but unlikely.

Xorxes - Slight Town

Xorxes starts the Bob wagon on page 95, after a short discussion with rdrivera. It seems decently sincere. And I think it was a wagon that had some potential to take off given where the state of the game was -- generally anti lurker with a pretty uncertain lynch. I feel like that's a town vote on scum, but I feel like it is less conclusive than worcej because Xorxes was not around much during the End of Day shifts and drama.

Chaqa - Scum (but I still lean Town for other reasons)

Okay, I think that behavioral stuff in the thread suggests that Chaqa is Town. And I think that Chaqa is Town. And Bob's vote on Chaqa reinforces that. Chaqa just hasn't been accommodating or pleasing in any way this game, and he is routinely going against the grain and sticking his neck out.

But, his Day 3 EOD behavior looks bad.

Chaqa on page 96, a few hours before EOD, lising his vote preferences:

I would be willing to join a wagon on Sulit/Bob if xorxes is unviable.

Chaqa, on page 105, listing his vote preferences:

Xorxes, Balki, Flum, Bob.

EMC over me, of course.

With 37 minutes left, and a Bob wagon starting to gain steam, Chaqa votes for Bob, true to his earlier suggestions, putting Bob in the lead 5-4:

So, Bob or EMC?

I have a tentative town read on EMC and a moderate scum read on Bob. But the voters on Bob are generally my other scum reads (xorx, worcej, Fox) - though worcej may be right that I mislabeled him on Day 2 w/r/t end voting.

I'm generally null-ish on the EMC voters.

Meh.

##Vote Bob

I'd vote for either of them over me.

Then in the final minutes, with Bob ahead by 3, Chaqa moves from Bob to EMC, to put EMC within 1 vote. And that's where it ends. Page 118:

I genuinely don't want to die right now so ##vote bob

Sorry man

##Vote EMC

^^town EMC wouldn't do this.

It bears many hallmarks of a scum attempt to save his partner. Chaqa had expressed multiple times in the thread that he thought Bob was scummier than EMC, and yet, when Bob was about to go down, Chaqa moved his vote to lynch EMC over Bob, in a way that Scum!Chaqa very well might have thought would shift the lynch.

@Chaqa, can you take some time and really dig into your thinking in these final moments. This is a bad vote, given what we know now.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I have to check something Fox said about damo, but I'm still townreading both for now. I think Jamie and kgray are also not non-pz scum.

Can you flesh out your Fox read? Why do you think he's town?

That's not an accusatory question. I think you're likely town, and I may need help on this one (I could definitely fall into confirmation bias here).

[xorxes]

I have to check something Fox said about damo, but I'm still townreading both for now. I think Jamie and kgray are also not non-pz scum.

Can you flesh out your Fox read? Why do you think he's town?

That's not an accusatory question. I think you're likely town, and I may need help on this one (I could definitely fall into confirmation bias here).

I think he could be patient zero, but I don't think he was bussing Bob when he made it a viable wagon. I also don't understand why you think it's so significant that he changed his initial D1 read of you.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Balki do you read Chaqa as scum, or town? Your post says both at once.

[Chaqa]

FWIW, I find it very interesting that Bunny voted sulit on Day 1. In my experience, Mafia will often vote for their teammates early on Day 1 to try to set up distance between them.

On Day 2, he no longer is voting for sulit/Bob.

On Day 3, he does join the Bob wagon to make it 6-3-3 (Bob-emc-chaqa), but then after Fox moves to EMC, Bunny moves to Balki. He does move back to Bob soon, but there is something a little fishy there I'd like to keep an eye on.

Yes, but the ultimate vote on Bob is pretty decisive, and Scum!Bunny would have had flexibility to do something else. I think that, if EMC is Town, Bunny is vewy vewy likely a towny bunny.

I'm not sure. I still think scum may have set up a bus on Bob.

[Balki Bartokomous]

BALKI'S EOD3 READS - PART 2

Rdrivera - Slight Scum

Okay, Rdrivera is important in starting the Bob wagon, on page 95, with Xorx. And he makes an argument that resonated with me, and it appears with others too, suggesting that Bob's slot would have been mod-killed if town.

I can join a wagon on Bob. I know we shouldn't try to outguess the GMs but I can't avoid thinking that if Sulit was town we will just have a modkill.

On the one hand, this looks towny, as it was a persuasive push against someone we know now to be scum. Though, I'll note, Scum!RdRivera might be slightly more predisposed to think this way, as scum would have thought a lot about that potential mod-kill during Day 1, and so it's possible that this kind of thinking would have been more top of mind for scum.

Anyway, RdRivera reassures Xorx on a Bob vote, and then RdRivera hops on two. Voila! A wagon.

On page 110, the Bob wagon gets a third member (worcej). It looks viable for the first time. Then RdRivera moves. Sketchy!

I didn't scumread you before because you didn't gave nothing, but this entrance is scummy as hell (or I am OMGusing). Anyway, between you and Chaqa I will choose you.

Anybody wants to start a wagon on Flum? I am finding him more and more scummy?

Then he leaves Bob for a Flum wagon, and never returns. He later goes to EMC.

So, the suspect thing here is that RdRivera seemed quite happy to vote on the Bob wagon until it became viable. Almost immediately after it became viable (a third vote), he left for Flum and then EMC, and ended on EMC.

There are possible, reasonable explanations for this. But this is an important data point, and RdRivera certainly deserves scrutiny for it.

Jamiet - Null, to Slight Scum Lean

Jamiet gets a slight scum lean for casting a vote for EMC, but I don't think his late switch from Bob to EMC is all that problematic. He expressly moved to Bob "just to tie the vote." So it wasn't surprising when he left. I don't know...the vote turned out to be suspect, but there isn't anything in the process that makes it worse, so I don't have much more to say about it.

Bunny and Bozo - Town

I'm running out of time. The timing of their votes, and the fact that they really were not committed to anything, but voted decisively for Scum, makes me feel fairly confident that Bunny and Bozo are both Town. That could change if we learn that EMC is Scum.

Flum - Likely Town

Same as above for Bunny and Bozo, really.

Fox - SCUM!

I think I've put all of my thoughts on this one in the thread already. Fox doesn't have a good explanation for his moves, and his moves are very much consistent with scum trying to save a buddy.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki do you read Chaqa as scum, or town? Your post says both at once.

The vote analysis says scum, but there are other reasons to think he is town. I would not lynch him tomorrow.

[kgray]

I didn’t have time to finish rereading the end of day 3. Here are some of my thoughts from what I did have time to reread. Sorry it’s kind of scattered, and definitely unfinished.

Foxcastle:
• Spends a lot of time speculating about night kills. Could be to lead town away from the real reason scum killed who they did, but I also think that until Bob turned up scum, we didn’t have much to go on. So probably NAI.
• I think Fox asking me if I saw his vote before I moved off of Chaqa is towny.
• I’d really like Fox to just say “Balki isn’t my #1 townread” so we can all just move on.

Jamie:
• I still think Jamie is town. The main notch against that is the Sulit/Jamie interaction Day 1 and how defensive Jamie got when Brain brought it up. But I think I can see Jamie just being defensive against Brain as town, and this isn’t enough to change my read of him.

BunnyGo:
• The Drunk Bunny (TM) stuff is weird to me, but apparently he’s done this in the past as town so it’s NAI? My gut is telling me he’s using this as an excuse to change his reads. Maybe someone who’s played with him before can address this?
• Bunny’s interactions with Chaqa at the end of day 3 strike me as suspicious, but I can’t really place why. Again, need to reread more.

Chaqa:
• What I interpreted as “giving excuses why we shouldn’t read into his votes” could literally just be that he’s not sure about who’s scum and who’s not. I'm going to let that train of thought go for now.
• Bob’s post #2020 (page 101) attacking Chaqa makes me much more inclined to think Chaqa is town. At the time I agreed with Bob’s conclusion that Chaqa was scum, but the reasons bob gave to scumread Chaqa seemed opportunistic and fake. And bob was scum, so I don’t think he’d come into the game with such a lazy scumread on his teammate and then vote for him to put him into 2nd place.
• As the EOD was playing out, I was suspicious that Chaqa was being saved. But I think this is unlikely for two reasons. First, because Bob was scum. It’s possible that Chaqa is scum and the scum team thought Chaqa was more valuable than Bob, but this is a stretch. The second is that I don’t see anyone opportunistically switching away from Chaqa. I do think Flum has some posts that make me think he’s trying to opportunistically switch to Chaqa…
• Overall, I'm much less convinced chaqa is scum. Although not enough to fully townread him.

Rdrivera:
• Rdr’s vote for Bob when only xorxes was voting Bob, and when Chaqa expressed interest in voting Bob, makes me think rdr is town. I wouldn’t expect him to get this wagon going if he were bob’s teammate.

Balki:
• interesting that he advocated reading from page 95. Page 95-99 is pretty much filled with his pressuring of foxcastle. Bob makes one post in that span, and rdr votes for bob. But other than that, it’s just Balki/Fox and Jamie/Bunny arguing about iff statements. So unless Balki thinks rdr’s vote is hugely important, it seems odd that he wants us to reread from page 95 instead of page 100. I don’t know. Maybe NAI but it bothers me.

Damo:
• claims scum-Chaqa wouldn’t vote for Tem when he did. I don’t understand why damo thinks that, and when questioned by myself and others he didn’t really answer.
• I think I need to re-read damo.

Flum:
• I don’t think, in general, scum would say “Bob I’ll help you” to his scum teammate. Flum has done a lot of things that I wouldn’t expect scum to do, like the Balki interactions day 1. It all seems too obvious and I’d expect scum to try to fly under the radar more.
• bob says flum is strange, and then 1 page later says flum looks alright. Bob ISOs Sulit at Flum’s (and Bunny’s) request, and says Sulit was NAI. Flum says that, because bob didn’t think Sulit was scummy, bob passes the test. Sketchy, but again, I sort of doubt Flum would be that obvious in protecting a teammate.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I have to check something Fox said about damo, but I'm still townreading both for now. I think Jamie and kgray are also not non-pz scum.

Can you flesh out your Fox read? Why do you think he's town?

That's not an accusatory question. I think you're likely town, and I may need help on this one (I could definitely fall into confirmation bias here).

I think he could be patient zero, but I don't think he was bussing Bob when he made it a viable wagon. I also don't understand why you think it's so significant that he changed his initial D1 read of you.

Well, here is why the vote change is significant to me. I can see why Scum!Fox would change (I started going after him). I cannot see why Town!Fox changed (I have been much more active in solving, and I cast an important vote).