M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Balki Bartokomous]

Also look at my votes and the things I try to do in the thread. Let me know if that tells you anything about my alignment.

If you're town, you're going to have to do some serious work to convince me. But you've got time. Go catch scum.

LOL, this is exactly what scum-Balki would say when he's confident he's covered all his tracks, and has no intention of being convinced by anything. My guess is that it's a prelude to a high-minded "I gave Fox an honest chance to prove himself, but unfortunately he failed. Oh, he's actually town? Well, he should have tried harder, more's the shame."

So...I was your #1 town read.

Then I cast a decisive vote to lynch scum in the final hour.

Now you think I’m scum?

If you were Town, you’d be more like:

“Sorry Team. Looks like I may have messed that one up. I know you guys may feel like you have to lynch me at some point to clear this up, but I am going to dig in and leave some solid analysis before I go. Balki, looks like I may have been right in my townread of you. I see that you’re off track, but I get it based on my misread at EOD3. Let me do my best to change your mind.”

[worcej]

Lengthy Post Warning - please read!

By my count, we have two free mislynches left. I would not waste one on EMC purely for information. Though, the info would be an added bonus to lynching EMC.

That said, just with how hectic and dynamic that EOD was, it just felt like Town vs. Scum to me. It felt like it was important to people, despite two pretty null slots in terms of content. I think I'm a pretty likely NK choice tonight, so I will do my best to put in time to re-read and post my thoughts before the night ends.

Agree with the concept of the mislynches - there may be some merit on the flip

These vote movements stick out to me the most from EOD:

1. @1:00 to EOD - rdr does Bob➙Flu - 3 e.m, 3 Cha, 2 Bob, 2 Flu
2. @00:34 to EOD - Jam does Bob➙e.m - 5 Bob, 4 Cha, 3 e.m, 1 rdr
3. @00:34 to EOD - Fox does Bob➙e.m - 5 Bob, 4 e.m, 3 Cha, 1 rdr
4. @00:14 to EOD - Bun does Bob➙Bal - 4 e.m, 4 Bob, 3 Cha, 1 xor
5. @00:04 to EOD - Fox does Cha➙e.m - 5 e.m, 5 Bob, 2 Cha, 1 xor

General comments of these votes/EOD actions:

1. Rdr's move was a bit before EOD, but it stuck out as weird because it happened shortly after my vote made Bob tied for leading wagon when the focus up until that point had been Chaqa and EMC. My gut said he was trying to get Bob out of the tied top and tried to focus attention on emc or Chaqa, which could be confirmed by his vote to EMC 17 minutes later. Why did he not go back to Bob instead? I think his moves were 'safe' and would not draw much suspicion, which is something scum!rdr does do on a regular basis.
2. Jamie moves to keep the vote 'interesting' - this lowers the count on bob, but keeps him as a top wagon. His following posts somewhat attacking emc as being a coward and not useful, which I think could be trying to bait some people back onto EMC. Near EOD, he comments that no one tried to save Bob however I think this isn't true because Rdr, Fox, and Bunny made moves that can be painted as saving bob.
3. Fox's two moves - first one was off to EMC with no visible context. His original vote on bob was to make the wagons closer, which could be a pretty damn easy busing attempt with an easy out if needed, which he does. He even recommends someone move off bob @ 00:31 before EOD when the vote was 5 bob, 4 emc, 3 chaqa. I think recommending this at that point is ridiculous because it gives the full scum team a chance to manipulate the vote (AKA: I see no town reason to suggest a close wagon like this). He eventually lowers EMC to vote chaqa, which leads us to.... the second vote - with 00:04 he moves back to EMC, which ties the vote between emc and bob. I'll comment that Fox was consistent with his dislike for voting EMC, but I think this consistency does not clear him in any way - if anything I am more inclined to lynch Fox over EMC in order to verify the above and (slightly) clear EMC.
4. Bunny's move is similar to the issue with Fox/Jaime, in that the move made EMC a possible other lynch. He eventually ended on Bob (@00:11), which is somewhat kudos because it made bob the leading wagon again. I don't think scum!bunny would need to do this because there was enough comments that if he wanted to go to EMC, he could've and contributed easily to that lynch.

So, that all being said: In order of scuminess of the above people, I would rank them Fox > Jaime > rdr >>> Bunny. My attention is on Fox/Jaime/rdr for the lynch on D4.

You've cherry-picked 5 votes out of more than 20 that happened in the last 30 minutes. You're not a little bit worried that you're missing something in the other 15?

Also, since you're cherry-picking, I have a couple of my own to pick:

At 47 minutes out, I jump off BunnyGo to Bob. Up to that point, Bob had been bopping between 2-3 votes. He was at 2 at that point, I made him 3, tying him for second place behind Chaqa at 4.

And then, Jamiet is the next immediate vote to put Bob at 4, tying him for the lead wagon.

How does that square with your analysis that Jamiet and I are the scummiest of that list when we are the ones who pushed the Bob wagon from third to lead?

My analysis focused on people moving off bob at interesting times. I don't assume that it is the end all, be all analysis.

You cherry pick that you made him a tie for second and Jaimes vote, but then you both moved off him 13 minutes later. Why?

It squares pretty well that you guys were looking for a lot of movement. You both were not content with Bob being the lynch and welcomed other options. You both simply look bad based on voting analysis for that day.

You guys are not alone - Damo also looks bad based on how he wanted EMC in the final couple minutes without really addressing.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Let's see what happens with three closer wagons... ##VOTE BOB

Balki, do you think Fox was bussing here? It was

Chaqa(4)
emc(3)
Bob(2)

and Fox made it 4-3-3, which I think is when Bob's wagon started to take off. He could just as easily have made it 4-4 to see what happens.

Based on what I believe now, I think Fox is scum, so yes. More distancing than a bus at that point. Not like he was trying to get people to vote Bob.

But I haven’t done my re-read of EOD yet. I’ll try to read the whole thing with an open mind and share my thoughts before EON.

[xorxes]

Then I cast a decisive vote to lynch scum in the final hour.

"Decisive" is one way to put it:

Not thrilled here. ##vote BobMcBob

I kind of liked the "would have been modkilled if Town" argument. I can't really discern much from his ISO.

The reason you gave is almost asking for refutation, although on the plus side there was very little time left for anyone to do that.

[xorxes]

Let's see what happens with three closer wagons... ##VOTE BOB

Balki, do you think Fox was bussing here? It was

Chaqa(4)
emc(3)
Bob(2)

and Fox made it 4-3-3, which I think is when Bob's wagon started to take off. He could just as easily have made it 4-4 to see what happens.

Based on what I believe now, I think Fox is scum, so yes. More distancing than a bus at that point. Not like he was trying to get people to vote Bob.

But I haven’t done my re-read of EOD yet. I’ll try to read the whole thing with an open mind and share my thoughts before EON.

Fair enough.

[xorxes]

Ah, cool. So what do you find hard to believe? You believe that I actually understood what Vecna meant and I pretended to be confused? What is your theory about why I did that?

I find it hard to believe that, even if you were initially confused about what Vecna meant, you didn't figure it out in the time it took you to post 2 additional messages asking for clarification - especially after Vecna did clarify. And I found your claim that you thought Vecna was referring to a geographical coastline even less likely.

If you're town, maybe you're just trying to start conversation - which worked. If mafia, I guess you'd be trying to paint a target on Vecna - unless you're both mafia, and you're trying to distance yourself from your teammate. But I have no idea which scenario I find more likely.

ewwwww

This is townie points for kgray.

[xorxes]

Jamie, why am I on your list?

Probably townie points for Jamie. I don't see why she would challenge a teammate like that. Maybe only if Jamie was the traitor as a way to signal, but unlikely.

[xorxes]

As fascinating as how I read/absorb the game on my phone while doing my kids' bedtime routine is, why do we still have 5 non-posters? Do they not live in a location that's virtually under quarantine? Is Fox in Australia? I know where pjandy lives...he should be here already, but he's new...
what about the rest of them?

I uh, I just didn't know the game started.

A lot of interaction with Bunny, although it was mostly initiated by Bunny.

[Foxcastle]

So you voted Bob to make the wagons closer to size. What was the reason you went with EMC over Bob at the end? You didn't give one at the time.

EMC not moving to save himself sealed it for me, in addition to some desire to be punitive for his lack of attention to the game for days at a time. He did the same thing in the last game as scum. Ultimately he did move to Bob after I voted, but he was still my preference over Bob (who was a null for me).

[e.m.c^42]

So you voted Bob to make the wagons closer to size. What was the reason you went with EMC over Bob at the end? You didn't give one at the time.

EMC not moving to save himself sealed it for me, in addition to some desire to be punitive for his lack of attention to the game for days at a time. He did the same thing in the last game as scum. Ultimately he did move to Bob after I voted, but he was still my preference over Bob (who was a null for me).

Not moving to save myself is NAI (or should be, lol). There is established precedence going both ways.

[e.m.c^42]

I feel like both Balki and Fox are town at this point, but

[e.m.c^42]

I feel like both Balki and Fox are town at this point, but

I'm still stuck in my rivera/xorx tunnel, with nary else reason but feel. With my luck he is our last PR or some unfortunate shit like that, lmao

[Balki Bartokomous]

I feel like both Balki and Fox are town at this point, but

I'm still stuck in my rivera/xorx tunnel, with nary else reason but feel. With my luck he is our last PR or some unfortunate shit like that, lmao

This feels like a towny post to me from EMC.

[xorxes]

Hang on, my bad. ##Vote Chaqa

I have to admit this makes Chaqa look good. Vote was emc(4) Chaqa(2) and he made it 4-3.

[xorxes]

I feel like both Balki and Fox are town at this point, but

I'm still stuck in my rivera/xorx tunnel, with nary else reason but feel. With my luck he is our last PR or some unfortunate shit like that, lmao

This feels like a towny post to me from EMC.

Maybe. I don't like the PR talk though.

[xorxes]

You can often get a good read on new replacements asking them to read who they're replacing. You'd be surprised how often scum replacements view their predecessor as kind of scummy. (Which makes sense since they know they are)

You passed the test well enough I suppose.

Either Flum is town or Bob and Flum both scum

So if flum's scum than I'm scum too? Explain? I could see this as scum!flum trying to get me to seem scummy and then going for a mislynch. I don't think that's what it is, but it's still possible.

This is townie points for Flum, I think.

[rdrivera2005]

Flum is not happening. I prefer emc or Bob over Chaqa.

##vote emc

You had been voting for Bob before voting for Fluminator, why did you switch to emc?

I was voting for Bob because he was lurking and because I thought GM would have modkilled a VT Sulit (sorry Neph).
But after my exchange with EMC and his reactions at EOD I found him more scummy. I was happy with any of them as the lynch.

[rdrivera2005]

Lengthy Post Warning - please read!

By my count, we have two free mislynches left. I would not waste one on EMC purely for information. Though, the info would be an added bonus to lynching EMC.

That said, just with how hectic and dynamic that EOD was, it just felt like Town vs. Scum to me. It felt like it was important to people, despite two pretty null slots in terms of content. I think I'm a pretty likely NK choice tonight, so I will do my best to put in time to re-read and post my thoughts before the night ends.

Agree with the concept of the mislynches - there may be some merit on the flip

These vote movements stick out to me the most from EOD:

1. @1:00 to EOD - rdr does Bob➙Flu - 3 e.m, 3 Cha, 2 Bob, 2 Flu
2. @00:34 to EOD - Jam does Bob➙e.m - 5 Bob, 4 Cha, 3 e.m, 1 rdr
3. @00:34 to EOD - Fox does Bob➙e.m - 5 Bob, 4 e.m, 3 Cha, 1 rdr
4. @00:14 to EOD - Bun does Bob➙Bal - 4 e.m, 4 Bob, 3 Cha, 1 xor
5. @00:04 to EOD - Fox does Cha➙e.m - 5 e.m, 5 Bob, 2 Cha, 1 xor

General comments of these votes/EOD actions:

1. Rdr's move was a bit before EOD, but it stuck out as weird because it happened shortly after my vote made Bob tied for leading wagon when the focus up until that point had been Chaqa and EMC. My gut said he was trying to get Bob out of the tied top and tried to focus attention on emc or Chaqa, which could be confirmed by his vote to EMC 17 minutes later. Why did he not go back to Bob instead? I think his moves were 'safe' and would not draw much suspicion, which is something scum!rdr does do on a regular basis.
2. Jamie moves to keep the vote 'interesting' - this lowers the count on bob, but keeps him as a top wagon. His following posts somewhat attacking emc as being a coward and not useful, which I think could be trying to bait some people back onto EMC. Near EOD, he comments that no one tried to save Bob however I think this isn't true because Rdr, Fox, and Bunny made moves that can be painted as saving bob.
3. Fox's two moves - first one was off to EMC with no visible context. His original vote on bob was to make the wagons closer, which could be a pretty damn easy busing attempt with an easy out if needed, which he does. He even recommends someone move off bob @ 00:31 before EOD when the vote was 5 bob, 4 emc, 3 chaqa. I think recommending this at that point is ridiculous because it gives the full scum team a chance to manipulate the vote (AKA: I see no town reason to suggest a close wagon like this). He eventually lowers EMC to vote chaqa, which leads us to.... the second vote - with 00:04 he moves back to EMC, which ties the vote between emc and bob. I'll comment that Fox was consistent with his dislike for voting EMC, but I think this consistency does not clear him in any way - if anything I am more inclined to lynch Fox over EMC in order to verify the above and (slightly) clear EMC.
4. Bunny's move is similar to the issue with Fox/Jaime, in that the move made EMC a possible other lynch. He eventually ended on Bob (@00:11), which is somewhat kudos because it made bob the leading wagon again. I don't think scum!bunny would need to do this because there was enough comments that if he wanted to go to EMC, he could've and contributed easily to that lynch.

So, that all being said: In order of scuminess of the above people, I would rank them Fox > Jaime > rdr >>> Bunny. My attention is on Fox/Jaime/rdr for the lynch on D4.

Why didn't you consider kgray voted on EMC close to the end suspect?

[rdrivera2005]

Hang on, my bad. ##Vote Chaqa

I have to admit this makes Chaqa look good. Vote was emc(4) Chaqa(2) and he made it 4-3.

Why do you think he didn't vote emc?

[xorxes]

Hang on, my bad. ##Vote Chaqa

I have to admit this makes Chaqa look good. Vote was emc(4) Chaqa(2) and he made it 4-3.

Why do you think he didn't vote emc?

Maybe because emc is scum? It could also be to have two top wagons instead of just one.