M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Jamiet99uk]

Even you, if you were in my shoes, would look back at your movement as possible scum-saving.

Perhaps I would, yes.

However, I believe that EMC is also scum. I think there is genuinely a good possibility that it was S v S. Bozo agrees with me, I notice.

Not removing that possibility from existing, however I think it is unlikely with the fact that one of the scum is a traitor. I would rather lynch Fox to try to indirectly verify EMC since Fox has a history of focusing on someone as town and a lot of D3 was him being interested in EMC.

How does Foxcastle's flip "verify" EMC's alignment?

[Foxcastle]

Foxy is such scum. He's talking in the Scum QT right now.

No one actually does this.

[Jamiet99uk]

Foxy is such scum. He's talking in the Scum QT right now.

No one actually does this.

What?

No-one talks in the scum QT?

Of course they do.

[Foxcastle]

Vote Count Day 3
BobMcBob (7) xorxes worcej bozotheclown BunnyGo Balki Bartokomous Fluminator e.m.c^42
e.m.c^42 (6) damo666 rdrivera2005 Jamiet99uk kgray Foxcastle Chaqa
Chaqa (1) BobMcBob

For the first time all game, we have some really useful hard info to analyze.

Everyone go re-read EOD knowing that Bob was scum. This was a close, late-moving, scum lynch. Should be a treasure trove.

Man my town-boner is so hard for you now.

Cannot + this enough. On cell in a meeting but definitely saw a lot of bad movement around this lynch.

Why is your town-boner raging for such an obvious statement?

[worcej]

Perhaps I would, yes.

However, I believe that EMC is also scum. I think there is genuinely a good possibility that it was S v S. Bozo agrees with me, I notice.

Not removing that possibility from existing, however I think it is unlikely with the fact that one of the scum is a traitor. I would rather lynch Fox to try to indirectly verify EMC since Fox has a history of focusing on someone as town and a lot of D3 was him being interested in EMC.

How does Foxcastle's flip "verify" EMC's alignment?

Because I doubt Fox as scum would bus EMC with Bob already exposed and garnering attention.

[worcej]

For the first time all game, we have some really useful hard info to analyze.

Everyone go re-read EOD knowing that Bob was scum. This was a close, late-moving, scum lynch. Should be a treasure trove.

Man my town-boner is so hard for you now.

Cannot + this enough. On cell in a meeting but definitely saw a lot of bad movement around this lynch.

Why is your town-boner raging for such an obvious statement?

Because we notoriously disregard prior actions and continue to focus on our own opinions instead of re-evaluating our opinions.

[xorxes]

Dammit I wanted to do that analysis.

FWIW, I tend to think Fox looks worst out of that EoD.

xorxes I could see being a scum ring leader on a bussing maneuver as well. He was the first one, but he was also GONE for most of the action. Easy town credit.

you're fixated with me.

I'm not taking any credit for that because I wasn't that convinced that Bob was scum. If I had been able to be there for the action I probably would have pushed for you or emc, but I was trying to read and everything went too fast for me.

[worcej]

Meanwhile in the 'Scum QT':

Foxywoxy: CRAP! We're over exposed! We need to communicate with our last remaining scumbro

JamieT2020Brexit: I KNEW I COULDN'T DEPEND ON YOU! WE NEED THE TRAITOR TO TAKE OVER FOR OUR INEPTITUDE!

Foxywoxy: Thankfully their watcher is so inept that they have focused too heavily on the obvious players! Let's keep this random killing up and get worcej next!

JamieT2020Brexit: Nah, he is an easy re-push. Let's get someone else....

[Foxcastle]

Foxy is such scum. He's talking in the Scum QT right now.

As you said before, this is the first time I recall you actually stating a position and not hedging it.

So, Balki: Why do you say this? What about Fox's actions seem scum!Fox to you that Town!Fox wouldn't do? How do you even notice Fox? Do you have a special ability to see through an SEP Field (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somebody_else%27s_problem)?

I state opinions all the time. I include caveats and hedges, when I feel them, because I have played this game long enough to know it is hard. It's hard to vote correctly. It's hard to know who is sincere and who is faking it. All of the folks here who spout things off with such certainty are very foolish, in my view.

Even here, I can't say I'm really sure that Fox is scum. But I wrote that because I began to suspect Fox as scum yesterday based on his nonconfrontationalism, and his vote off the scumlynch wagon near EOD is exactly what we would expect from ScumFox (assuming EMC is Town, which I suppose I am mentally doing right now, but could still be wrong).

"Nonconfrontationalism" is a dumb rubric for judging who's scum and who's not. It presumes everyone is going to go around proactively interacting with you, which is not the case, even for otherwise active players. Even an egotist should be able to see that.

Also, go find me examples of scum jumping off wagons like you claim I did. It's pretty rare, actually, because scum are hesitant to act inconsistent with their reads. They tend to get stuck in place on the counterwagon (who didn't move off EMC, or moved to EMC and stuck there?), or see the writing on the wall and bus late. Also, but less common, are the bussers who get stuck and won't move because it looks suspicious.

If EOD is interesting to you and worecej, you have me and Jamiet to thank for it, by the way.

[Fluminator]

Was your only motive for voting EMC and remaining on it for a closer wagon at EOD?

[Foxcastle]

Lengthy Post Warning - please read!

By my count, we have two free mislynches left. I would not waste one on EMC purely for information. Though, the info would be an added bonus to lynching EMC.

That said, just with how hectic and dynamic that EOD was, it just felt like Town vs. Scum to me. It felt like it was important to people, despite two pretty null slots in terms of content. I think I'm a pretty likely NK choice tonight, so I will do my best to put in time to re-read and post my thoughts before the night ends.

Agree with the concept of the mislynches - there may be some merit on the flip

These vote movements stick out to me the most from EOD:

1. @1:00 to EOD - rdr does Bob➙Flu - 3 e.m, 3 Cha, 2 Bob, 2 Flu
2. @00:34 to EOD - Jam does Bob➙e.m - 5 Bob, 4 Cha, 3 e.m, 1 rdr
3. @00:34 to EOD - Fox does Bob➙e.m - 5 Bob, 4 e.m, 3 Cha, 1 rdr
4. @00:14 to EOD - Bun does Bob➙Bal - 4 e.m, 4 Bob, 3 Cha, 1 xor
5. @00:04 to EOD - Fox does Cha➙e.m - 5 e.m, 5 Bob, 2 Cha, 1 xor

General comments of these votes/EOD actions:

1. Rdr's move was a bit before EOD, but it stuck out as weird because it happened shortly after my vote made Bob tied for leading wagon when the focus up until that point had been Chaqa and EMC. My gut said he was trying to get Bob out of the tied top and tried to focus attention on emc or Chaqa, which could be confirmed by his vote to EMC 17 minutes later. Why did he not go back to Bob instead? I think his moves were 'safe' and would not draw much suspicion, which is something scum!rdr does do on a regular basis.
2. Jamie moves to keep the vote 'interesting' - this lowers the count on bob, but keeps him as a top wagon. His following posts somewhat attacking emc as being a coward and not useful, which I think could be trying to bait some people back onto EMC. Near EOD, he comments that no one tried to save Bob however I think this isn't true because Rdr, Fox, and Bunny made moves that can be painted as saving bob.
3. Fox's two moves - first one was off to EMC with no visible context. His original vote on bob was to make the wagons closer, which could be a pretty damn easy busing attempt with an easy out if needed, which he does. He even recommends someone move off bob @ 00:31 before EOD when the vote was 5 bob, 4 emc, 3 chaqa. I think recommending this at that point is ridiculous because it gives the full scum team a chance to manipulate the vote (AKA: I see no town reason to suggest a close wagon like this). He eventually lowers EMC to vote chaqa, which leads us to.... the second vote - with 00:04 he moves back to EMC, which ties the vote between emc and bob. I'll comment that Fox was consistent with his dislike for voting EMC, but I think this consistency does not clear him in any way - if anything I am more inclined to lynch Fox over EMC in order to verify the above and (slightly) clear EMC.
4. Bunny's move is similar to the issue with Fox/Jaime, in that the move made EMC a possible other lynch. He eventually ended on Bob (@00:11), which is somewhat kudos because it made bob the leading wagon again. I don't think scum!bunny would need to do this because there was enough comments that if he wanted to go to EMC, he could've and contributed easily to that lynch.

So, that all being said: In order of scuminess of the above people, I would rank them Fox > Jaime > rdr >>> Bunny. My attention is on Fox/Jaime/rdr for the lynch on D4.

You've cherry-picked 5 votes out of more than 20 that happened in the last 30 minutes. You're not a little bit worried that you're missing something in the other 15?

Also, since you're cherry-picking, I have a couple of my own to pick:

At 47 minutes out, I jump off BunnyGo to Bob. Up to that point, Bob had been bopping between 2-3 votes. He was at 2 at that point, I made him 3, tying him for second place behind Chaqa at 4.

And then, Jamiet is the next immediate vote to put Bob at 4, tying him for the lead wagon.

How does that square with your analysis that Jamiet and I are the scummiest of that list when we are the ones who pushed the Bob wagon from third to lead?

[Balki Bartokomous]

As you said before, this is the first time I recall you actually stating a position and not hedging it.

So, Balki: Why do you say this? What about Fox's actions seem scum!Fox to you that Town!Fox wouldn't do? How do you even notice Fox? Do you have a special ability to see through an SEP Field (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somebody_else%27s_problem)?

I state opinions all the time. I include caveats and hedges, when I feel them, because I have played this game long enough to know it is hard. It's hard to vote correctly. It's hard to know who is sincere and who is faking it. All of the folks here who spout things off with such certainty are very foolish, in my view.

Even here, I can't say I'm really sure that Fox is scum. But I wrote that because I began to suspect Fox as scum yesterday based on his nonconfrontationalism, and his vote off the scumlynch wagon near EOD is exactly what we would expect from ScumFox (assuming EMC is Town, which I suppose I am mentally doing right now, but could still be wrong).

"Nonconfrontationalism" is a dumb rubric for judging who's scum and who's not. It presumes everyone is going to go around proactively interacting with you, which is not the case, even for otherwise active players. Even an egotist should be able to see that.

Also, go find me examples of scum jumping off wagons like you claim I did. It's pretty rare, actually, because scum are hesitant to act inconsistent with their reads. They tend to get stuck in place on the counterwagon (who didn't move off EMC, or moved to EMC and stuck there?), or see the writing on the wall and bus late. Also, but less common, are the bussers who get stuck and won't move because it looks suspicious.

If EOD is interesting to you and worecej, you have me and Jamiet to thank for it, by the way.

Cool.

Do you plan to re-read EOD3? Do you think that is useful? What will you be looking for?

[Foxcastle]

Foxy is such scum. He's talking in the Scum QT right now.

No one actually does this.

What?

No-one talks in the scum QT?

Of course they do.

No, no one does what Balki just did: using someone's absence as evidence that they're in the scum QT. It would be a joke if Balki weren't trying so hard to throw every leaf of shade at me he can find.

I cannot remember the game where he did this to be before as scum, maybe I will go find it. It was exactly this same thing. A slow start dropping little bits of suspicion here and there, and then a full push to get me mislynched.

[Balki Bartokomous]

No one actually does this.

What?

No-one talks in the scum QT?

Of course they do.

No, no one does what Balki just did: using someone's absence as evidence that they're in the scum QT. It would be a joke if Balki weren't trying so hard to throw every leaf of shade at me he can find.

I cannot remember the game where he did this to be before as scum, maybe I will go find it. It was exactly this same thing. A slow start dropping little bits of suspicion here and there, and then a full push to get me mislynched.

@Fox, do you think I am scum this game?

Go back and read the EOD3. Please tell us the reasons you made the votes you did.

Also look at my votes and the things I try to do in the thread. Let me know if that tells you anything about my alignment.

If you're town, you're going to have to do some serious work to convince me. But you've got time. Go catch scum.

[Foxcastle]

Also look at my votes and the things I try to do in the thread. Let me know if that tells you anything about my alignment.

If you're town, you're going to have to do some serious work to convince me. But you've got time. Go catch scum.

LOL, this is exactly what scum-Balki would say when he's confident he's covered all his tracks, and has no intention of being convinced by anything. My guess is that it's a prelude to a high-minded "I gave Fox an honest chance to prove himself, but unfortunately he failed. Oh, he's actually town? Well, he should have tried harder, more's the shame."

[BunnyGo]

Also look at my votes and the things I try to do in the thread. Let me know if that tells you anything about my alignment.

If you're town, you're going to have to do some serious work to convince me. But you've got time. Go catch scum.

LOL, this is exactly what scum-Balki would say when he's confident he's covered all his tracks, and has no intention of being convinced by anything. My guess is that it's a prelude to a high-minded "I gave Fox an honest chance to prove himself, but unfortunately he failed. Oh, he's actually town? Well, he should have tried harder, more's the shame."

+1. This summarized everything I think Drunk Bunny was sensing.

[Fluminator]

Fox, why do you think Balki is trying to mislynch you specifically?

[Foxcastle]

Fox, why do you think Balki is trying to mislynch you specifically?

Maybe he thinks I'm an easy victim, or he saw that not a lot of people put me in their town reads for Bozo's survey, or whatever. I do think it's true that my baseline meta is pretty much never obv-town. So I think it's opportunistic.

[Fluminator]

So you voted Bob to make the wagons closer to size. What was the reason you went with EMC over Bob at the end? You didn't give one at the time.

[xorxes]

Let's see what happens with three closer wagons... ##VOTE BOB

Balki, do you think Fox was bussing here? It was

Chaqa(4)
emc(3)
Bob(2)

and Fox made it 4-3-3, which I think is when Bob's wagon started to take off. He could just as easily have made it 4-4 to see what happens.