M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[kgray]

Okay, I'm trying to coherently explain my thoughts on people and it's a slow process. I started with emc and Chaqa because I think they're most likely to be scum and they're both currently wagons. I'll keep working on this, but in the meantime if anyone wants me to specifically address another read, let me know.

emc
Of the remaining lurkers, I find emc the most suspicious. He started the game with a pretty open-seeming tone and was joking around a lot, which initially could read as towny. But after a while it seems like those posts were intended to make him look like he was participating, because the few game-related posts he did have didn’t seem like they were based on anything. He simultaneously admits that Tem could be using a strategy that emc used when he was scum, and that Tem seems “less solid” but still apparently townreads Tem because he doesn’t vote for him. Instead he votes for Flum because… xD? And, as others have mentioned, appears to have been around at the end of the day but didn’t try to make his vote count. He doesn’t mention anything about worcej being a townread until after the day ends. It all just seems like he was trying to avoid voting for the person who ends up being lynched. Since Tem was town and since I think worcej is town too, scum emc could very well be trying to distance himself from the town lynch. Then night 1 he has a few more joke posts, mentions that he thinks worcej is town (or patient zero), and subtly digs at Flum again without giving a reason. Then he disappears, and all we’ve heard since is a promise to return.

Chaqa
Chaqa spends day one making excuses for why we shouldn’t read into his vote. He casts suspicion on xorxes and rdr but won’t vote for either of them. Calls day one a crapshoot and the votes arbitrary. Uses some “policy” to justify voting for emc. Has three posts brushing off Tem’s actions as not necessarily scummy. Votes for bozo, which he later claims was determined randomly. Near the end of the day, he says he doesn’t like the idea of lynching worcej day one and finally votes Tem. Not wanting to lynch worcej is a significant detour from his “anyone but me on day 1” outlook. He later says worcej is one of the few people he felt good about day 1. No indication of who else he felt good about, and why he felt confident in worcej day one despite his assertion that day one is useless. I get the feeling that Chaqa is protecting worcej and it doesn’t seem organic to me because of Chaqa’s insistence that day one doesn’t mean anything. So I think he has ulterior motives. I think that worcej is town, but if I’m wrong then I think Chaqa is very likely scum. If worcej is town, I could see a situation where Chaqa knows that worcej is town and is defending him either to make worcej feel more positively towards Chaqa or to get credit for defending town if worcej does get lynched. Since worcej was the second-largest wagon day 1, maybe Chaqa was counting on being able to defend worcej while worcej still got lynched so that Chaqa would look more towny.

The hammering of Vecna has been discussed a lot, but I think chaqa comes out of that looking very suspicious. I’ve pointed out the inconsistencies in his reasons for his end vote, and he shrugged that off. I think what bothers me as much as the inconsistencies is the fact that he tried so hard to make himself seem hesitant to end, and then was the deciding vote after all. It seems similar to what I think happened day one, where he wants to put plenty of “evidence” in the thread about why we shouldn't read into his vote. After all, he didn’t really want to end the day early, remember? He said so many times that it was a bad idea. But, most suspect to me is his attempt to shift the blame to Flum. Both days it seems like Chaqa is trying not to take responsibility for his votes.

I’m going to ##vote Chaqa.

[bozotheclown]

Is EMC just terrified of posting as scum? Did he have a recent bad experience as mafia and now scared to post?

Yes. He has always been a coward, and in the last game, he was scum for the first time and I caught him quickly.

That was not the first time he was scum. The first time he was mafia he survived until the end to win. He was also 3P once.

What he is doing this game is not consistent with what he has done in the past as town or mafia. He could be trying a new scum strategy. If he is trying a new town strategy, it is not very good. Or, he could just be unavailable for some reason, but he has not told us that.

[bozotheclown]

The lynch of EMC in the last game was not just a policy lynch. There was a shift in his play and he was correctly scumread for it. If he is town now, that experience should give him more confidence, since we have now seen both sides of him.

And yet...

Meh. You were scumreading him, Bob was scumreading him for lack of participation rather than anything specific or a change in play (had Bob even encountered EMC before?), Kit and I were bussing him, and Vecna voted to seal the deal without an explanation. The other votes I recall during that day were policy lynch votes. So I disagree that there there was a consensus beyond yourself that he was actually scum. The point being that EMC is pretty consistent at playing to his (shitty) baseline, and I don't think that his lynch in the last game would give town-EMC any reason to change how he played.

I checked and Bob and emc were both in M51, although Bob did not last long in the game.

[Chaqa]

Kgray, I'm not going to even try to address most of what you're suspecting me on due to it having been covered in excruciating detail, but the EMC "policy" is that for the last several games or so, myself and a few others have been voting for EMC as a matter of policy because he never does anything until the last minutes of EoD, where he usually casts a single vote and then disappears again.

Last game he was scum doing it. I know for a fact he could be more active. I'm not one to call out lazy players, but he's a really egregious example.

I'm going to stay the course on xorxes, though.

[bozotheclown]

town survey:

bozo: Balki, kgray, Jamie, xorxes, rdrivera
Jamie: xorxes, BunnyGo, kgray, sulit, rdrivera
xorxes: Jamie, brainbomb, bozo, damo, Foxcastle
rdrivera: Balki, xorxes, kgray, Fluminator, brainbomb
BunnyGo: kgray, Balki, Jamie, damo, xorxes
damo: Balki, xorxes, rdrivera, kgray, bozo
worcej: BunnyGo, brainbomb, kgray, Balki, bo_sox
sulit: Jamie, brainbomb, bo_sox, emc, ?
Temasek: Jamie, kgray, emc, ?, ?
kgray: Jamie, brainbomb, Foxcastle, bozo, xorxes
Foxcastle: Fluminator, xorxes, Balki, Jamie, ?


worcej and sulit have had 2 of their D1 top town reads proven correct, and they were the NKs. This may not mean anything, but it does not help alleviate my suspicion of them.

[Foxcastle]

Xorxes, Kgray, Balki... Why haven't you voted yet?

I'm waiting for emc to show up, I will vote for him or Chaqa.

I'm assuming pjandy will be subbed. If not, I might vote for him as well depending on how convincing his excuses sound.

I don't really want to start a wagon on Balki or rivera at this point because I'm too unsure about them.

I suppose I could vote for Bob if a wagon forms as well. His vote for me was ridiculous since he didn't even read what happened. "Too scummy to be scum" is the only saving grace, but that only buys him a wait and see.

The rest I don't think I'm inclined to vote for.

I can join a wagon on Bob. I know we shouldn't try to outguess the GMs but I can't avoid thinking that if Sulit was town we will just have a modkill.

I am more okay with a modkill now, even of town, when we can afford it and still have some breathing room. The worse scenario is that we get close to LyLo/MyLo and are trying to balance actually catching scum and not losing because of lazy town players getting mod-killed.

[Chaqa]

I would be willing to join a wagon on Sulit/Bob if xorxes is unviable.

[Chaqa]

I would be willing to join a wagon on Sulit/Bob if xorxes is unviable.

Though I do have some concerns that xorxes is the only voter there atm...

[kgray]

So Flum thinks I’m scum based on:
1. A several year old meta
2. Contradictions (??????) about my vote on Bozo
3. Not knowing why I’m voting xorxes despite having explained my suspicion of him several times
4. My back and forth on Vecna. Sure, it wasn’t the most coherent, but why aren’t you all suspicious of him who was also on this wagon!!!

Assuming you're asking why people aren't suspicious of Flum based on the end of day, I'll answer 4 from my point of view.

Flum was the person who originally proposed the idea to end the day early, so him being part of the final end votes goes along with what he had been supporting for a while. You repeatedly stated you thought it was a bad idea. So when you are the final end vote, that makes me think you were jumping on an opportunity to use the end votes to your advantage. I could be wrong on this (the bot doesn't track end votes, does it?) but I think that when you voted to end, it was the first time there had been 8 end votes. So I think that you saw the opportunity to end the phase, and found a reasonable excuse to explain your vote on Vecna, and voted to end. Since that was a change from your initial position about hammering the day, I think it's worth looking into.

But more than that, the biggest reason I suspect you is because I think you're trying to avoid taking responsibility for your votes, as I've already mentioned and won't get into again now. When Flum voted to end, he specifically said he endorses the hammer. I don't think he was afraid of being the cause of Vecna's lynch, and that strikes me as less scummy than you trying to distance yourself from it.

[BunnyGo]

town survey:

bozo: Balki, kgray, Jamie, xorxes, rdrivera
Jamie: xorxes, BunnyGo, kgray, sulit, rdrivera
xorxes: Jamie, brainbomb, bozo, damo, Foxcastle
rdrivera: Balki, xorxes, kgray, Fluminator, brainbomb
BunnyGo: kgray, Balki, Jamie, damo, xorxes
damo: Balki, xorxes, rdrivera, kgray, bozo
worcej: BunnyGo, brainbomb, kgray, Balki, bo_sox
sulit: Jamie, brainbomb, bo_sox, emc, ?
Temasek: Jamie, kgray, emc, ?, ?
kgray: Jamie, brainbomb, Foxcastle, bozo, xorxes
Foxcastle: Fluminator, xorxes, Balki, Jamie, ?


worcej and sulit have had 2 of their D1 top town reads proven correct, and they were the NKs. This may not mean anything, but it does not help alleviate my suspicion of them.

Why does someone’s D1 town reads getting NKd look bad for them? Shouldn’t it look good for them? Or null?

[rdrivera2005]

I would be willing to join a wagon on Sulit/Bob if xorxes is unviable.

Though I do have some concerns that xorxes is the only voter there atm...

Me too, but let's see what happens.

##vote Bob

[BunnyGo]

Doing my completely subjective wagon analysis is as follows:

EMC wagon: not great, Flum is scummy, jamie is towny, I’m town, bozo is null
Xorxes wagon is worse: chaqa and Bob are both scummy, rdr is towny
The chaqa wagon looks good: kgray and Damo are towny, fox is null.

The EMC wagon is largely based on his absence. The chaqa wagon is largely based on his horrible presence. I’m not entirely sure what the xorxes wagon is (@rdr care to explain?)

[Jamiet99uk]

The chaqa wagon is largely based on his horrible presence.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Foxy,

What's your Balki read right now and why?

[Balki Bartokomous]

I think Foxy is scum.

[Balki Bartokomous]

##vote Foxcastle

[Jamiet99uk]

Ah Balki, hello.

I had a question for you, it is on page 94.

[kgray]

@Bunny can you elaborate on your scumread of Flum? Day one you seemed pretty sure Flum was towny. All I found in your ISO is that you don't believe he missed Brain's apparent crumb, and then the fact that he reacted to me asking about him not following Balki's vote day 2. Is there anything else?

[BunnyGo]

@Bunny can you elaborate on your scumread of Flum? Day one you seemed pretty sure Flum was towny. All I found in your ISO is that you don't believe he missed Brain's apparent crumb, and then the fact that he reacted to me asking about him not following Balki's vote day 2. Is there anything else?

There is, but I have to dig for it later. His post attacking Chaq seemed towny (I’m his defense)

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki, @BunnyGo:

During EoD1, was it your view that you were witnessing a Scum vs Scum situation?

Does this mean: did I think that both leading wagons were scum?

If that is your question, my answer is no. I felt like worcej's confidence in his Tem read was a signal that, if Tem is Town, worcej is Scum, and if worcej is Scum, Tem was likely Town.