M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[BobMcBob]

That is not true, Chaqa was on the Vecna wagon also.

Ah, my bad. I'll hopefully be able to check this further later.

[Chaqa]

So Flum thinks I’m scum based on:
1. A several year old meta
2. Contradictions (??????) about my vote on Bozo
3. Not knowing why I’m voting xorxes despite having explained my suspicion of him several times
4. My back and forth on Vecna. Sure, it wasn’t the most coherent, but why aren’t you all suspicious of him who was also on this wagon!!!

[BunnyGo]

So Flum thinks I’m scum based on:
1. A several year old meta
2. Contradictions (??????) about my vote on Bozo
3. Not knowing why I’m voting xorxes despite having explained my suspicion of him several times
4. My back and forth on Vecna. Sure, it wasn’t the most coherent, but why aren’t you all suspicious of him who was also on this wagon!!!

Just to be clear, you’re choosing to defend yourself from Flum’s towniest action in a while by saying “sure I’m guilty, but look over there at xorxes”?

[damo666]

##VOTE EMC

Apparently you addressed my question already...

worcius

Stop nicking my jokes

[Jamiet99uk]

##CALL GM:

Do you have a replacement for Pjandy, and has Pjandy been contacted to remind him to play?

Thanks.

[xorxes]

@rivera, how closely are you reading the thread?

I have read every single page. Last day (the day Vecna was hammered) I was almost 20 pages behind because I had to prepare to work from home and get supplies and stuff for this damm thing. But I catched up. I didn't had time for ISOing people or doing extensive re-reads.
And you didn't address my question (at least on my POV). You were voting Vecna before he self voted, when he told he was lurking on purpose to avoid NK and will solve later. Why do you think it's more likely scum Vecna do that then town Vecna? I didn't remember a single game where Vecna was scum and lurker as a tactic.

The reason I asked is that I had already answered your questions in my response to bo_sox, but you asked the same thing again instead of addressing what I had said.

I think Vecna used the lurk strategy when he was 3P scum in that game that had to be restarted, but I may be remembering wrong. In any case, it doesn't really matter if he used it before or not. Are you saying he is incapable of lurking as scum? When I initially voted for him it was a pressure vote so he would start playing. I don't think saying you will start to play on D3 is a legitimate town strategy.

[xorxes]

I find the point on kgray interesting. She had a great start being logic and sharp but she didn't push things. Hard to tell if this is scummy or not because it's her first game.

Didn't she push the Temasek lynch pretty hard?

[Foxcastle]

Day 1

Temasek22 (7) — brainbomb, kgray, Jamiet99uk, bozotheclown, rdrivera2005, Chaqa, damo666
worcej (4) — BunnyGo, Fluminator, Balki Bartokomous, Foxcastle
brainbomb (3) — Vecna, bo_sox48, Temasek22
Foxcastle (1) — worcej
Chaqa (1) — xorxes
No‑Lynch (1) — Pjandy
Fluminator (1) — e.m.c^42

Non-votes — sulit/BobMcBob

Day 2

Vecna (8) — Balki Bartokomous, kgray, damo666*, Fluminator*, Foxcastle*, Chaqa*, xorxes*, bozotheclown
Pjandy (2) — worcej*, rdrivera2005*
bo_sox48 (2) — BunnyGo*, Jamiet99uk

Non-votes — bo_sox48, e.m.c^42, Pjandy, BobMcBob


Killing bo_sox becomes more of a mystery. Not only did they clear out a potential mislynch from the lurker pool, they also closed the question of whether any scum were on the D1 Brainbomb wagon, and eliminated him as a target from the D2 non-votes.

I wonder if they were hunting the Watcher, and figured that if he wasn't, he'd be unlikely to be watched anyway. They may have thought Bo mentioning John Denver, Ricky Skaggs, and [David] Gilmour was him crumbing—there are a few songs by Skaggs and Gilmour/Pink Floyd that could easily be interpreted as watcher crumbs. And then he mentions the NSA in his next post... the watching-est of intelligence agencies...

That points to someone closely reading the thread and making notes about less active players (though, it's not like those "crumbs" were particularly subtle, so it wasn't a brilliant leap or anything, just attentiveness).

[Jamiet99uk]

I am now town-leaning Rdrivera having re-read him. I will post a detailed summary shortly.

[Foxcastle]

I think Chaqa and Balki could make sense as a scumpair. They separated their D1 votes (EMC/Pjandy/SulitMcBob were already occupying the lonely wagons space). On D2, they were both on Vecna, which matters because the Worcej wagon would have been pretty sparse and easy to sort out as the game went on, but they are sufficiently separated that Chaqa would have been comfortable with the space between them when he joined that wagon.

[Jamiet99uk]

RDRIVERA ISO:

This is only up to the end of D2 but it's enough for me to get a good read and I need to go outside:
-------------------

Page 5 enters the game expressing interest in whether Patient Zero is known to the Mafia.

P.11 Thinks that "lurk and bus" is the current Mafia meta. Wants to +1 the entertaining exchange between Flum and Brain about Brain's mood swings. Thinks that Vote Count Analysis is useless.

Page 18, more discussion of the Patient Zero and whether Mafia would try to signal to them.

P.21, hopes Flum is town, and then on p.28 Gives townreads (for bozo) of Bozo, Xorxes, Kgray, Flum, Brain. Votes for Foxcastle at this point.

P.32 Thinks worcej townslips (real or fake?) when talking about the Patient Zero mechanics. Wants to now why Foxcastle is voting for BunnyGo. Foxcastle answers this by saying he felt Bunny was being "obsequious" to Balki.

Also p.32 - is not getting a "good vibe" from Temasek and thinks he is being lazy.

P.36 - now "I dont want to lynch Fox", thinks the Temasek wagon is "boring", and he moves to Vote Chaqa because "he seems off".

P.37 (and 45) - Believes Temasek's "reaction test" explanation could be true because of how blatantly scummy it looked.

P.41 - Continues to scumread Chaqa although he thinks Temasek will be lynched. Things Fox is OMGUSing Worcej, but that this is town-indicative.

P.45 - Disagrees with Balki's vote on Worcej. Does not think it's plausible that scum Worcej would strongly defend town Temasek.

- Moves to Temasek (from Chaqa) and states he is doing so to save Worcej because he doesn't like the bandwagoning on Worcej. At this point it was 5/4 between Temasek and Worcej so he made it 6/4.

Argues with Balki and Fluminator about his defence of Worcej at EoD. Tells us he likes to bus as scum.

P.52 - Really dislikes Foxcastle's "Bleh, Temasek was bad" post after the flip and accuses Fox of being scum and looking fake.

P.56 - Analyses Balki, who he says has the same style as usual but much worse content. Finds Balki's dismissal of any chance of Temasek being town. He points out (and this is interesting) that both Balki and BunnyGo declared they were sure Temasek was scum, while remaining on Worcej's wagon at EoD.

P.66 - Pressure votes the absent Pjandy.

Was not present when the hammer ended the phase early.

[Jamiet99uk]

Observations:

1. Talks about Patient Zero a lot, but does not appear to be attempting a fake "towntell" by not being sure if Mafia knew who Patient Zero was. At least I don't get that impression from his posts. More, because we do know that Patient Zero doesn't know the other scum, he wonders if they would signal to him, which is a reasonable thing to ponder.

2. His opinion on Foxcastle changed quite significantly on D1 once Foxcastle explained why he scumread Bunny, but then on N1 he went back to finding Foxcastle scummy for his reaction to Temasek's flip.

3. He believed that Temask was town after Temasek claimed his scummyness was a reaction test. He pointed out how odd it was that both Balki and BunnyGo sat on Worcej while still declaring Temasek to be scum.

In general Rdrivera, while not the most active person here, cannot be called a lurker either. When he has been active, he asks meaningful questions and seeks to understand what people are thinking.

Now, if Rdrivera flips scum at some point, it will be worth re-assessing Worcej's D1 on the basis of how strongly Rdrivera defended Worcej (literally being willing to risk mislynching Temasek to protect Worcej), but I don't scumread him for that right now.

Importantly, his reads and assessment of the gamestate clearly evolve over time, which is a strong towntell to me and hard to fake this well.

Therefore = townlean.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Balki, @BunnyGo:

During EoD1, was it your view that you were witnessing a Scum vs Scum situation?

[xorxes]

Now, if Rdrivera flips scum at some point, it will be worth re-assessing Worcej's D1 on the basis of how strongly Rdrivera defended Worcej (literally being willing to risk mislynching Temasek to protect Worcej), but I don't scumread him for that right now.

rivera strongly defending a scum teammate would be completely off-meta. If rivera flips scum I would take that as evidence for worcej being town rather than the other way around. Also if worcej flipped scum this would make rivera less likely to be scum.

[xorxes]

Now, if Rdrivera flips scum at some point, it will be worth re-assessing Worcej's D1 on the basis of how strongly Rdrivera defended Worcej (literally being willing to risk mislynching Temasek to protect Worcej), but I don't scumread him for that right now.

rivera strongly defending a scum teammate would be completely off-meta. If rivera flips scum I would take that as evidence for worcej being town rather than the other way around. Also if worcej flipped scum this would make rivera less likely to be scum.

Unless rivera was patient zero, then that wouldn't tell us much about worcej.

[Fluminator]

Is EMC just terrified of posting as scum? Did he have a recent bad experience as mafia and now scared to post?

[Fluminator]

So Flum thinks I’m scum based on:
1. A several year old meta
2. Contradictions (??????) about my vote on Bozo
3. Not knowing why I’m voting xorxes despite having explained my suspicion of him several times
4. My back and forth on Vecna. Sure, it wasn’t the most coherent, but why aren’t you all suspicious of him who was also on this wagon!!!

Just to be clear, you’re choosing to defend yourself from Flum’s towniest action in a while by saying “sure I’m guilty, but look over there at xorxes”?

I think Chaqa is throwing shade at me, not Xorx

[Fluminator]

I could buy Rdrivera being town, but that would probably mean at least one of the people I'm assuming is town is scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

Is EMC just terrified of posting as scum? Did he have a recent bad experience as mafia and now scared to post?

Yes. He has always been a coward, and in the last game, he was scum for the first time and I caught him quickly.

[Foxcastle]

Is EMC just terrified of posting as scum? Did he have a recent bad experience as mafia and now scared to post?

This is worse than usual, but his baseline is hesitant to take any strong position as town. He claims he is simply unable to make a decision and that is why he only votes at the end.

Maybe that indicates town. He just came off playing scum, where he was policy lynched for his play style. I'd think that going into this game, he'd want to make sure he was about in-line with his usual play.