M53: Mafia 1 Redux

[BobMcBob]

There's a me vs Kalel apparently, if there were no scum on my wagon D1 that would be completely stupid, unless I was scum. So in that case ##Vote Kalel

Thanks for the compliments Bunny. I was not suggesting that we no-lynch today, or tomorrow. I was suggesting we lynch today and tomorrow, either getting it down to 3-1 or losing. Then, if we reach 3-1, THEN we no-lynch so that we have a (theoretically at least) better chance of getting the one last scum.

Yeah, my game has been poor. I haven't had the time. But like, I haven't lost the game for us or anything. I didn't even get myself mislynched :)

[flash2015]

I am surprised how quiet this is. Has everyone given up?

I'm surprised Bunny is not in here foaming at the mouth about being lead wagon. Maybe he's letting the bus through to build stock for D5.

Why should I foam? I see Fox hunting. I see Bob being lazy. I even see you and flash here for once.

I am not seeing Fox hunting. He is making posts to look active. The summary was a lot of words but little analysis. After all that he just decided to fall back to his default vote from yesterday?

[BobMcBob]

We need to lynch correctly today, so we need to make sure we stack high on one person who is almost certainly scum. And I say that person should probably be Kalel. Since everyone's mostly convinced it's SvT, I think it's a good place to start. And anyone who votes me is quite likely scum.

[flash2015]

What do you think food?

[BunnyGo]

@Bob, I guess here's why your idea of waiting for scum to get the ranks smaller is bad: if there's just 1 scum left, then OK the two town just need to find each other. But with 3 scum left, it means ALL 4 REMAINING TOWN HAVE TO AGREE!! MULTIPLE TIMES! WITH SCUM SACRIFICING EACH OTHER TO HIDE!

We need to have a buffer of one moron town not getting on board with the rest. If even 1 town is wrong at 4-3, we lose.

If even 1 town is wrong at 5-3, we still lose (unless moron townie is off on a vanity wagon).

At least then it is a draw for a day...

[flash2015]

@Bob, I guess here's why your idea of waiting for scum to get the ranks smaller is bad: if there's just 1 scum left, then OK the two town just need to find each other. But with 3 scum left, it means ALL 4 REMAINING TOWN HAVE TO AGREE!! MULTIPLE TIMES! WITH SCUM SACRIFICING EACH OTHER TO HIDE!

We need to have a buffer of one moron town not getting on board with the rest. If even 1 town is wrong at 4-3, we lose.

If even 1 town is wrong at 5-3, we still lose (unless moron townie is off on a vanity wagon).

At least then it is a draw for a day...

OK, you are right. If one townie is wrong and we get a draw, then we get another day.

[BunnyGo]

Hmm...Discuss the scum team of the 3 K's (who all failed to save EMC D1 via oversleeping, missing EOD, or trying on Bob...)

Kalel, Kak, Kitsune

Why not Fox, Bob and Kalel?

Why would none of that team vote on me D1?

[BunnyGo]

Hmm...Discuss the scum team of the 3 K's (who all failed to save EMC D1 via oversleeping, missing EOD, or trying on Bob...)

Kalel, Kak, Kitsune

Why not Fox, Bob and Kalel?

Why would none of that team vote on me D1?

They were all around, and EMC was on me. I'd just given both Bob and Fox a reason off of EMC, and Kalel could always shift...

[foodcoats]

What do you think food?

This maybe has already been said but vote analysis is not my forte...

Occam's razor, scum don't want one of their number down D1. But scum always bus to some degree. So the simplest explanation is that one of Fox, Bob and Kit is scum.

The other two, in the simplest scenario, are among Kal, Kak, Bunny, flash.

This makes me rethink my Bob vote. All other things being equal, there is a 33% chance to hit scum from emc's wagon in the Occam scenario. There is a 50% chance to hit scum on the off wagons.

[flash2015]

Hmm...Discuss the scum team of the 3 K's (who all failed to save EMC D1 via oversleeping, missing EOD, or trying on Bob...)

Kalel, Kak, Kitsune

Why not Fox, Bob and Kalel?

Why would none of that team vote on me D1?

What do you mean? emc was on your wagon.

[flash2015]

I am really not liking Fox here. If he really believes I am his best scum option, he should be making a case. You can't be off on a vanity wagon today.

[BunnyGo]

Why not Fox, Bob and Kalel?

Why would none of that team vote on me D1?

What do you mean? emc was on your wagon.

Yup...so no teammate could vote on me to save him?

If Bob AND Kalel are town, then not 1 scum could join that wagon?

If Bob AND Kalel are scum, they'll stick to Bob bussing EMC, and Kalel bussing Bob all the way to NOT voting on me? ALL before they have even 1 night to discuss? And lose their top teammate in the process?

No, I don't believe they'd pull that off.

[BunnyGo]

What do you think food?

This maybe has already been said but vote analysis is not my forte...

Occam's razor, scum don't want one of their number down D1. But scum always bus to some degree. So the simplest explanation is that one of Fox, Bob and Kit is scum.

The other two, in the simplest scenario, are among Kal, Kak, Bunny, flash.

This makes me rethink my Bob vote. All other things being equal, there is a 33% chance to hit scum from emc's wagon in the Occam scenario. There is a 50% chance to hit scum on the off wagons.

I think as the scum who shot me last game to win MVT and Brainbomb demonstrate this game, and Jamie as Iron Man, and so many others in just the 5 games I've played: there's no need to be fancy when people are handing things to you on a platter. Just play it straight and obvious, because the other teams is gonna make big mistakes.

[flash2015]

Why would none of that team vote on me D1?

What do you mean? emc was on your wagon.

Yup...so no teammate could vote on me to save him?

If Bob AND Kalel are town, then not 1 scum could join that wagon?

If Bob AND Kalel are scum, they'll stick to Bob bussing EMC, and Kalel bussing Bob all the way to NOT voting on me? ALL before they have even 1 night to discuss? And lose their top teammate in the process?

No, I don't believe they'd pull that off.

It only falls apart if Fox was was not in on it too.

[flash2015]

i.e. if Fox isn't scum, I agree that Bob and Kalel are likely not scum together.

[flash2015]

Where is Kalel?

[KalelChase]

Where is Kalel?

I'm here. Just got back from seeing a live show of Critical Role.

I'm VT. Bunny knows this. Bunny has abandoned their normal rational reasons, and logical cases for hysterics. It is very unlike them.

I voted EMC because I thought they were scum... I switched to Bob for the same reason, but changed my mind about them later.

The team is Bunny + 1K + 1F

[BunnyGo]

i.e. if Fox isn't scum, I agree that Bob and Kalel are likely not scum together.

I want to further point out that Damo (and occasionally me) tried to get a Kalel or Bob wagon going, and instead we've been offered T v T or a T counter wagon. Perhaps think hard who kept changing the conversation?

[BunnyGo]

Where is Kalel?

I'm here. Just got back from seeing a live show of Critical Role.

I'm VT. Bunny knows this. Bunny has abandoned their normal rational reasons, and logical cases for hysterics. It is very unlike them.

I voted EMC because I thought they were scum... I switched to Bob for the same reason, but changed my mind about them later.

The team is Bunny + 1K + 1F

What about my reasoning that scum shouldn't have sacrificed EMC on D1 when they had at least 1 viable other wagon? If you are town (and you know it) then Bob's WHOLE WAGON was town. Not 1 scum could save EMC?

[BunnyGo]

Where is Kalel?

I'm here. Just got back from seeing a live show of Critical Role.

I'm VT. Bunny knows this. Bunny has abandoned their normal rational reasons, and logical cases for hysterics. It is very unlike them.

I voted EMC because I thought they were scum... I switched to Bob for the same reason, but changed my mind about them later.

The team is Bunny + 1K + 1F

What about my reasoning that scum shouldn't have sacrificed EMC on D1 when they had at least 1 viable other wagon? If you are town (and you know it) then Bob's WHOLE WAGON was town. Not 1 scum could save EMC?

I am Town. Not 1 scum could join EMC on me? I think it's because they were already misplaced, and unavailable.