M53: Mafia 1 Redux

[flash2015]

Since we're at MiLo, we need to make sure we lynch scum today and tomorrow, hold the lynch the day after, and then lynch the last scum on the final day (it's a real strategy, they did it in M46 or something). So we need to make sure that scum can't force a mislynch or else they win.

Since it is MiLo, any reason why we couldn't no lynch today?

Interesting contrasts in these views...

I didn't notice Bob's post. I don't know why you would wait. Whether we no lynch or not, all townies will need to vote together to lynch scum three days in a row. Having fewer options now is better than later.

[KalelChase]

Oh brain ...

Damo & BB I'll miss you guys. You made this fun.
Sorry Kak... my last minute vote was from 5 minutes before EoD wasn't caught up.

If Damo had flipped scum I was going to say the final two were Bunny and Flash... but since this is not the case I have to look at some info.

I'm ignoring Bunny and my last minute votes for a second...
Looking at votes :38min till EoD...

00:34 Kak dam➙Kak 3 Kal 3 Kak 3 dam 2 fla
00:08 Bun fla➙Kak 4 Kak 3 Kal 3 dam 1 fla
00:05 bra Kak➙Bun 3 Kal 3 Kak 3 dam 1 Bun
00:04 Fox fla➙dam 4 dam 3 Kal 3 Kak 1 Bun
00:03 bra Bun➙Kal 4 Kal 4 dam 3 Kak
00:02 Bun Kak➙Kal 5 Kal 4 dam 2 Kak
00:01 Kak Kak➙dam 5 Kal 5 dam 1 Kak
00:01 Kit Kak➙dam 6 dam 5 Kal

Flash, Bunny and Kak were the ones "in danger".
Kak, Bun, Bra, Fox, Kit voted during that window to change the two wagons to two towns.
Overlap there is Bun and Kak...

Again, just regurgitating information hoping someone smarter than me can put it together.
Scum will likely leave me alive since I'm so useless, but if they do kill me it means this post was threatening.

If I die tonight lynch Bunny.

Kalel, damo did not flip scum. And you didn't die last night. So why are you now saying Bunny is "so much more there" for you? It would seem the basis of your vote does not exist.

The Damo flip would have paired Bun and Flash... Since it did not I looked for Bun's accomplices elsewhere. I will admit I'm being influenced by others, you included.

My gut right now is Bun, Kak and one other... but my gut + other town 'clear' posts puts more weight on Bun.

Note that I'm leading the logic on this we're sunk. I'm happy to sheep the wagon of the most town 'clear' at this point.

[flash2015]

BunnyGo then votes himself, in direct response to Kit's vote (he quotes it). So it's then Damo 6 to Kalel 4. Why do this instead of voting for Damo? Unless you're hoping for more chaos and the remaining potential of a tie (especially in a crosspost). This actually does not look as bad as I thought in the moment when there was trouble tracking votes, because it does actually put Damo ahead. But it doesn't look as good as Damo vote would have. Or any vote really. Maybe he was hoping someone would jump off the Damo wagon (food, Bob, Fox, Kak, Kit) onto Kalel to cause a tie.

If Bunny isn't scum it would have been helpful to give an explanation of what he was trying to do here. He was quite active last night and the only thing he said was:

I don’t think people are appreciating my EOD play.

Then he switches to talking about Kalel.

[Foxcastle]

Threads that are currently ahead of this game on the front page:
xi jinping's threat to take over the forum,
"The Role of Carrots in Modern Society,"
The 2020 Masters Tournament announcement,
Damo's thread of lisp jokes,
and finally, "Foot stuff" by Brainbomb, which I have not opened because, oh god no.

[Foxcastle]

Since we're at MiLo, we need to make sure we lynch scum today and tomorrow, hold the lynch the day after, and then lynch the last scum on the final day (it's a real strategy, they did it in M46 or something). So we need to make sure that scum can't force a mislynch or else they win.

Since it is MiLo, any reason why we couldn't no lynch today?

Interesting contrasts in these views...

I didn't notice Bob's post. I don't know why you would wait. Whether we no lynch or not, all townies will need to vote together to lynch scum three days in a row. Having fewer options now is better than later.

There being three scum, allowing one more night kill narrows the pool of potential mislynches, but also gives scum more control over the final lynch... I am not sure it is exactly the same situation that Bob described (did he go back and read old games or something? Or was it discussed in the Maf QT, and Flash and Bob are scummates and that's why they both spelled it MiLo when I thought the usual spelling was MyLo...)

[foodcoats]

Bunny did not do a self-vote. Is that the main reason you think Bunny is scum? Since you are mixing up Bunny and Kakarroto, should you be voting for Kakarroto instead?

If the vote analysis leads you to believe that either myself or Kalel is scum, or Bunny or Kalel is scum, why would you not vote for Kalel, they being the most statistically likely given all scenarios?

BunnyGo did do a self-vote right at the end. This is what I am questioning:

##vote Damo

##VOTE BUNNY

Yes, Kak did also self-vote but in the end he ended on Damo. Which in your opinion is more scummy? I would say the self-vote at the end. I am not seeing the town motivation in it.

Kalel may be scum...but I want to be careful that I don't go into tunneling mode. My original decision for voting Kalel on previous days was at least partially wrong (my fault for not really paying attention).

I missed that, I was paying too much attention to what was logged in the bot. That is very bizarre... almost like Bunny didn't care or was having a laugh at us.

I like flash today. flash is either deepscum who buzzed in late and is now trying hard to direct the mislynch, or was just lurking town who is now stepping up finally. So flash lynch today is bad.

Kakarroto would also have to be deepscum in my mind. There's been some weird red flags but overall I think they have played a townie game. Also bad choice.

Bunny is very likely scum but I'd like to have a good second wagon to discuss, and as mentioned I don't like Kak. Bob is looking very bad for doing all of nothing today. If scum!Bob got through the previous days' scrutiny, he is probably trying to lay low now.

##VOTE BobMcBob

[Foxcastle]

I still think it's likely that Flash is scum who's coasted through the game, and if he's waking up now, it's because they're on the cusp of winning.

##VOTE FLASH for now, no-lynch is still possibly a good idea, and Kakarroto needs another look after EOD.

[flash2015]

I still think it's likely that Flash is scum who's coasted through the game, and if he's waking up now, it's because they're on the cusp of winning.

##VOTE FLASH for now, no-lynch is still possibly a good idea, and Kakarroto needs another look after EOD.

So you have just given up on the spreadsheet then? Looking back through your ISO you seem remarkably disinterested this game. Perhaps you thought that first day bus on emc would inoculate you for the entire game? No wonder emc was so relaxed with the whole situation.

[BobMcBob]

We need to lynch well today. I'm not going to be on for EoD, so I'm going to sit on Bunny. Watch out for people jumping wagons at the last minute trying to force a mislynch and counteract them if possible. We can't afford to go wrong today.

[flash2015]

We need to lynch well today. I'm not going to be on for EoD, so I'm going to sit on Bunny. Watch out for people jumping wagons at the last minute trying to force a mislynch and counteract them if possible. We can't afford to go wrong today.

You won't be online at all tomorrow?

[flash2015]

Just in case it isn't Bunny.

[flash2015]

I am surprised how quiet this is. Has everyone given up?

[flash2015]

Are scum confident of a win?

[BobMcBob]

Whoops, wrong day. I thought EoD was today. Heh. Okay, I'll try to get some more stuff done. Whooops.

[foodcoats]

I am surprised how quiet this is. Has everyone given up?

I'm surprised Bunny is not in here foaming at the mouth about being lead wagon. Maybe he's letting the bus through to build stock for D5.

[Kakarroto]

To be clear Kakarroto, the part about Brainbomb was a joke. The inclusion of Damo was an error, all I can say is that work fried my brain today and I rushed to get some thoughts down before EON based on what I had been holding in my head.

I can feel you about work, the flu has hit us and the healthy need to do the workload left. It doesn't help there has been the official announcement the corona virus reached Austria yesterday and since then work was even more hectic. But anyway, lets not get this in the way.

Well, that was an interesting NK. I was expecting perhaps food or Fox

Seriously?

No insult intended but I thought they would go for who I thought are the stronger mafia players (if they are town). Was there a universal townread on Jamie?

pretty much, I was thinking between fox and jamie at first but the more I thought, the more fox didn't seem as realistic as a nk anymore

Also, you should never forget, mafia can't nk themselves, so that might've influenced too the nk's

@Kak (no one else please answer) What did town learn from you voting on yourself?
[...]
For me, I learned that there was a lot of uncertainty of whether your wagon was a solid as it looked. I wanted to stay on it, but expected you to jump away and tie things or vote for Damo at the last second while I was on your wagon.

I think two things I've learned (well three but brain being town was pretty clear then): since I don't think scum would have the guts to vote me then, everyone voting me after I selfvote has to be town ( I mean correct me if I'm wrong there, but what scum player would vote then, when there is a much easier lynch between two towns to have or maybe even the need to rescue a fellow scum, depending on the role kalel got, but scum would definitely know how I flip and would neither vote for town nor scum, right?) ... which is why I townread bunny now.

the second thing is from this post:

I hated the three-way tie.

I like the lead wagon, but since part of it counts on a self-lynch I'm nervous we're heading back there at the last second.

Anyone else want in?

yes, lets buss me, come on guys, it's time!

give yourself some credit

Stop that, or I'm not inviting you to my Onsen later

I don't understand why you're self-lynching, but it is intimidating as hell.

Why would Kitsune react like that? This sounds like being scared? Tell me I'm wrong, but I think if I would be in her situation, like Day2, when I was sure jamie was sk (yes, silly me), I would've been thrilled if Jamie turns around and votes vor himself, making him a lead wagon, possibly lynching him when others follow. Kitsune on the other hand had the opposite reaction, it feels more like she's voting me because I'm a stand-in here, not really wanting to lynch me, not having the responsibility of being wagon leader when I flip. Why? Maybe she knows how I flip, either town or scum, or maybe I'm reading too much into it, if that's the case, then tell me guys, am I misreading Kitsune here like jamie?

Currently, Fox is my strongest town read.

Kitsune a town lean.

Kak, Kal, Food, and Bob are scum leans.

Null on flash.

I had fox as a town read, but I don't think that anymore. Other than flash, who improved, fox feels like doing less. Though I've to say, I too haven't done much, thanks to rl stuff, also town not doing hot might be a reason why less is done overall. But I still think, why hasn't fox been nk'ed already? Or is anyone in here who read fox as scum? Didn't the ones who did get nk'ed or lynched?

you still haven't told me, why I look obvtown to you ##vote foodcoats

Your style looks - or looked - identical to the last game I played with you. But after the self voting shenanigans I'm not so sure. That's a gonzo strategy and doesn't fit the image I had of you.

Hmm ... I guess ... maybe you can understand me like I can understand brain ... I do some unexpected stuff though sometimes, like the time I 'accidentally' posted my reads half an hour too early and claimed a pr role as vt to misdirect scum ... I still remember how moscowfleet loved that ... ah, good times. But yeah, sometimes I do unexpected stuff.

[...]
At 0:36 out, Kak moves to Damo. (Damo 5, Kalel 3, Flash 2)
[...]

one thing I want to add: I misvoted damo when I went before in the day, corrected that when I came back. Bunny reminded me, but I left for work at the time when I did send the post, so I couldn't have read it in time. But yeah.

so I think that should've done much earlier: ##vote foxcastle

[Kakarroto]

a 3 way tie.

interesting choice rivera

It could provide a lot of information later on. Which... I guess means nothing until later on...

The working assumption was that either Brain or Bunny was scum.

I did not say I think there is no chance that those 4 are mafia, i do deem it unlikely.

emc was trying hard to avoid the lynch, I doubt he would be doing that at BunnyGo's expense if they were teammates.

He created a 3-way tie when he voted for Bunnygo, which could have been a smart way to try to generate a lot of movement that would have saved him. The person he did not vote to create that tie was Jamie...

[...]
Brain moves off Damo to onto Kak (Damo 4, Kalel 3, Flash 2, Kak 2)

Kak moves off Damo to self vote (Damo 3, Kalel 3, Kak 3, Flash 2). This seems like an extreme reaction. There's 34 minutes to go, Brain didn't even put him in the lead. So why do this? I asked, and he replied, "Because I think I'm a dead man walking anyway, this way I'm forcing other people to give more information to help town in the last bit." I think the more likely answer is that he was positioning himself for a last-minute save--which he then attempted at 0:01 minute to go. (This is a trick I learned from Bozo: if you're on your own wagon, when you jump off, the difference isn't just one vote, it's two, so you have a better chance of self-saving.) I don't find that inherently scummy (I've done it as town), but it strikes me as belying fear that you've been caught (especially by a town semi-clear), which combined with trying to misdirect about the purpose is scummy.

BunnyGo moves from Flash to Kak.

Brainbomb moves from Kak to BunnyGo. It's a threeway tie between Kalel, kak, and Damo at this point, each at 3 points.

[...]

Kak moves from self-voting to Damo to create another 5-5 tie between Damo and Kalel. There is no more risk to his wagon at this point. Why create a tie? Unless maybe you're trying to save someone.
[...]

notice the difference in language: in 3 out of 4 situations, the phrase "3-way-tie" was used (though at first instance not from fox but he responded to it). The fourth situation is "an extreme reaction". It's even more clear when he uses in the same post the phrase "3 way tie"

also, responding to the last part of the quote, at the time I thought damo was scummier than kalel, also it would again show the intentions of other players

[Kakarroto]

Foodcaots, Kalel, Flash, and Kitsune are the 4 people who are even more useless than I am right now.

[...]

is this why those are still alive? what do you all think about that?

Should we be having a discussion about who the vigilante should NK tonight (if any)?

Kalel or Flash would be most helpful to my spreadsheet. Or Rdr, Kakarroto, or bozo are second choices. (These are not scumreads.)

is this a map for people not being on a scum team with fox?

[BunnyGo]

BunnyGo's voting is very strange:

D1 Bunny sits on emc all day. The original vote is not explained. Bunny does not explain until 1.5 hours before EOD:

Didn't think it needed explaining.

Trying to catch up for EOD. Have to pick up kids.

1) I’m fed up with EMC. I policy voted last game and will do again
2) Kalel is scummy scum scum
3) the rest looks noisy to me. Could be anything so far
4) I’m so glad BB is here. I’m surprised I’m saying that.

But then, 13 minutes before EOD, Bunny relents and votes damo. Literally with no explanation as to why they are now voting damo. And they are only now unvoting emc because emc wouldn't vote, but has now voted. In other words, Bunny's D1 vote has no logic or purpose to it.

I explained at the time that I honestly thought emc was town based on the fact that when he was scum and we policy voted him, he voted fast. I was sheeping Vecna, whom I townread and trusted.

Jamie, Kit, Bungo, someone I'm forgetting maybe

Read my fucking posts lol

Just because I style them jocular, add emotes, and extensively condense does not mean that there are no posts. Avoiding strong adjectives except for cases of sarcasm is not-not having an opinion.

I've already asked earlier in the day if it was difficult to understand and if it needed extending to no response, of which the obvious conclusion is that yes, everyone gets it.

I have been. I honestly think you’re town. I just fu*^ing hate how you won’t vote. I expect you to vote on ME as a holding vote at the start of day 2.

##VOTE DAMO

D2, Bunny sits on bozo on all day (minus a very short stint on brain). Doesn't mention bozo D1, mind you. Or N1. In fact, Bunny votes bozo by aligning with damo... who was Bunny's D1 end vote. At the time damo made these statements, there was no verifiable truth to them, and if Bunny had truly suspected damo was scum at the end of D1, what had changed to make them agree suddenly that this logic of damo's identified scum and that it wasn't just scumplay from damo? And why not bozo over Kalel? I think that Bunny needed a line to pick up and play with, forgot he had voted for damo, and tried to stickhandle ahead with this idea of damo's that Kalel or bozo "must" be scum in order to generate a "ballad of bozo."

Looking at the 3 main wagons day 1 and considering there were at least 2 town on each of the 4 vote wagons there surely must be AT LEAST one scum among brain bozo and Kalel.

Agreed. ##VOTE BOZO
for now. Time for kiddos bedtime. Will be back in 3 hours or so for the ballad of bozo.

D3 is vastly different. While on previous days Bunny votes for one or two people, Bunny now votes for seven separate players, and also makes an unvote. When the Bob wagon gets hot, Bunny moves to me... because...?

Bunny had a couple people he scum read, and tried to push at the end. Namely Kak, and to a lesser extent Kalel. Sadly the Kak wagon was VERY dangerous to stay on at the end, and I had strongly shifted to townreading damo. There was also the strange issue of Brain trying to tie the vote inexplicably, and Kak planning on shifting somewhere at the last minute (probably for scummy reasons)

Well, due to a combination of procrastination, distraction and having work to do, I'm not going to get around to those reads after all... lynch me if you want, I'll take it. I didn't play a particularly invested game after Day 1. That said, I'd prefer not to be lynched. I'm not even the least active...

##VOTE FOOD

Because Bob would prefer not to be lynched? So he wants to wagon me? Looking back up, Bunny scumread me because I didn't vote for emc (neither did he) and because I didn't try to save emc (even though Bunny himself DID try to save emc by moving from emc to damo with 13 minutes to go). (Also because he thinks I was fishing for PR crumbs with the D&D thing).

Yup! All true!

In any event, he doens't stay on me: he tries out flash, Kakarroto and Kalel as well. Considering he pushed Kakarroto into the lead with 8 minutes to go and then Kalel into the lead with 2 minutes to go, I don't think Bunny can be scum with Kakarroto or Kalel. But he certainly can be scum with flash (who he busses on a dead wagon with 1.5 hours to go) and/or Bob (who he bussed earlier in the day).

Bunny, what made you so focused D1 and D2 but so spastic D3?

Answers above...I guess to this specific question though, by D3 I felt more confident in some reads but less confident in my ability to herd cats and get any consensus. Especially at the end of the day with Kak and Kalel. Earlier in D1 and D2 I'm happier sheeping since I have less to go on.

[BunnyGo]

Why are you lurking Fox?

##VOTE Foxcastle

Please don't. Fox is likely town based on D1 voting. As you are the only person scum hunting, you at least are doing towny things now...