M1009 [HIDDEN]

[e.m.c^42]

Also why did everyone drop off the radar so suddenly

[brainbomb]

im dog sitting.
its night phase.

[e.m.c^42]

Unfortunately I get the feeling xorxes has fooled me this game, especially with his move to save me D2 when all 3 wagons were town. His attempts to get me moved up before him in the lynch order D3 probably should have been a give away.

Obviously my reads have been way off. My initial reaction is that the scum team is xorxes, emc, and brainbomb, but I will have to look at everything again.

The thing about xorx is that he's been giving me indirect praise a disturbing amount, lol. Didn't realise he actually paid attention to what I spew. Thought it was him trying to manipulate me into being more active but who knows.

[bozotheclown]

Unfortunately I get the feeling xorxes has fooled me this game, especially with his move to save me D2 when all 3 wagons were town. His attempts to get me moved up before him in the lynch order D3 probably should have been a give away.

Obviously my reads have been way off. My initial reaction is that the scum team is xorxes, emc, and brainbomb, but I will have to look at everything again.

The thing about xorx is that he's been giving me indirect praise a disturbing amount, lol. Didn't realise he actually paid attention to what I spew. Thought it was him trying to manipulate me into being more active but who knows.

I did notice that, he might have been trying to pocket you, I will have to look into that.

Why didn't you vote for Tom D3 when it looked like he would finally flip?

[e.m.c^42]

Unfortunately I get the feeling xorxes has fooled me this game, especially with his move to save me D2 when all 3 wagons were town. His attempts to get me moved up before him in the lynch order D3 probably should have been a give away.

Obviously my reads have been way off. My initial reaction is that the scum team is xorxes, emc, and brainbomb, but I will have to look at everything again.

The thing about xorx is that he's been giving me indirect praise a disturbing amount, lol. Didn't realise he actually paid attention to what I spew. Thought it was him trying to manipulate me into being more active but who knows.

I did notice that, he might have been trying to pocket you, I will have to look into that.

Why didn't you vote for Tom D3 when it looked like he would finally flip?

I reread him and no longer had the same feeling, and this posting got better (think I said this already). Also, the fact that there was not much defending of him from others seemed off. So off to gold/jamie it was.

[rdrivera2005]

I think my scumreads should be shitty for scum didn't NK me, considering I am widely townread. So probably Xorxes is really town and scum is Food/ Jamiet and emc or Brain.

[xorxes]

I think my scumreads should be shitty for scum didn't NK me, considering I am widely townread. So probably Xorxes is really town and scum is Food/ Jamiet and emc or Brain.

I agree, Both bozo and goldie look much better after Tom flipping Town. Bozo not voting for Tom at 3-3-3 is now more towny rather than scummy. Goldie could still have moved so he would not be the deciding vote on Tom, but probably not.

I have a feeling Jamie is town despite all of his useless cases based on nothing and all the posturing. He seems way too comfortable in his skin to be town. I've been very wrong so far so maybe I'm wrong about this, but that's my feeling after a re-read.

That leaves emc/brain/food. That's my current bet.

[xorxes]

I think my scumreads should be shitty for scum didn't NK me, considering I am widely townread. So probably Xorxes is really town and scum is Food/ Jamiet and emc or Brain.

I agree, Both bozo and goldie look much better after Tom flipping Town. Bozo not voting for Tom at 3-3-3 is now more towny rather than scummy. Goldie could still have moved so he would not be the deciding vote on Tom, but probably not.

I have a feeling Jamie is town despite all of his useless cases based on nothing and all the posturing. He seems way too comfortable in his skin to be town. I've been very wrong so far so maybe I'm wrong about this, but that's my feeling after a re-read.

That leaves emc/brain/food. That's my current bet.

Actually make it emc/brain/[goldie|food]. After re-reading foodcoats he doesn't look all that bad. I haven't re-read the others yet.

[xorxes]

I think my scumreads should be shitty for scum didn't NK me, considering I am widely townread. So probably Xorxes is really town and scum is Food/ Jamiet and emc or Brain.

I agree, Both bozo and goldie look much better after Tom flipping Town. Bozo not voting for Tom at 3-3-3 is now more towny rather than scummy. Goldie could still have moved so he would not be the deciding vote on Tom, but probably not.

I have a feeling Jamie is town despite all of his useless cases based on nothing and all the posturing. He seems way too comfortable in his skin to be town. I've been very wrong so far so maybe I'm wrong about this, but that's my feeling after a re-read.

That leaves emc/brain/food. That's my current bet.

Actually make it emc/brain/[goldie|food]. After re-reading foodcoats he doesn't look all that bad. I haven't re-read the others yet.

Although if it is emc/brain/goldie, then emc must be feeling very unloved.

[brainbomb]

its not any of those

[Jamiet99uk]

Scumpool: EMC / Xorxes / Foodcoats / One of Gold or Bozo.

[goldfinger0303]

Alright everyone, you have the luxury that I'm on a 6am train for a business trip to NY. So I got time to do an in depth look before I possibly croak tonight. Side note: if I do live, I have meetings tomorrow going like straight up to EOD and a train to catch at like 5:30, so I won't be that active then.

So, let's look at the wagons at EOD1.

Neph had Kak,damo,and Tom on it - 3 confirmed town. Plus xorxes, foodcoats, bozo, and Chaqagold.
Tom had one confirmed town on him - Neph - and two unknowns - emc and rdrivera.
Damo had a town (worcej) and an unknown (Jamiet)
Jamiet had an unknown. (Flav)

Just from looking at it, I think that scum are obviously not concentrated on one wagon. So let's keep analyzing on the assumption that no more than two scum are on a wagon, because I believe that's a safe one to make. So remember these groupings!

Now, let's look at vote movements. Chaqagold had a vote on emc for a while, with town!Kak and town!damo joining on. I think here is where we might look to find scum hopping on in the next two votes - Jamiet and Flav/bb. Jamiet in particular hops on and quickly off to vote damo, who at that point didn't have any votes against.

There was pressure on Flav early on too, but that seems to be driven by town - foodcoats joined, which might be notable, might not.

Now, at EOD there were a lot of swing votes to Neph and <b> these were all town </b>. Moreover, we know for a fact that the top three wagons were all town, so scum have no incentive to switch. The earliest votes on Neph were xorxes, town!Kak and foodcoats, in order. Bozo joins considerably later.

So, from D1 I think there's one scum in xorxes/food, one in Jamiet/Flav. The other most likely being emc. Or perhaps both in one of the pairings.

Day 2 in a second post

[Jamiet99uk]

its not any of those

If you are sure that Goldfinger and EMC are town, who is your scumpool?

[goldfinger0303]

So, D2 we again see wagon competitions between confirmed town, with the addition of a bozo wagon that is at least partially town driven.

We have town!Tom and town!Kak on the lead wagon, along with bozo, xorxes and food.
Jamiet and myself on bozo along with town!worcej
Rdrivera and emc on Tom

So let's remember our groupings here. D1 was (Max 2 scum: xorxes, food, Chaqa/gold bozo) and (Max 2 scum: Jamiet, Flav/bb, emc, rdrivera)

D2 we have noticeably no Flav to go off of, which hurts. And little change in end wagons. It's actually quite a shit day for vote analysis. Token votes on xorxes by rdrivera, town!Kak and foodcoats. The only thing that could be important is food moving off bozo, if bozo happens to be scum. But personally I consider that unlikely. Town!Kak had a vote on Flav, but without Flav participating nobody joined. Again, notable that all pressure on Flav/bb has been from town.

D3 won't know much more on until EOD. Only thing to note is that two counter-wagons developed - emc and Jamiet. We won't know much more until after EON, unfortunately and we have more confirmed town votes to go off of. But it was conceivable that one of the two could have been lynched. Perhaps this is the first time scum have been pressured all game?

I wish I could be more helpful, and maybe if I'm working on more than a few hours sleep a re-analysis of votes will show something useful.

Xorxes/foodcoats looks interesting for a lynch tomorrow. As does emc.

[Foxcastle]

Night ends in just over 2 hours.

[Jamiet99uk]

I think we must lynch EMC tomorrow.

[e.m.c^42]

I think we must lynch EMC tomorrow.

That sounds like a terrible idea. Who would write the Chaqotle flavour then?

[Jamiet99uk]

I think we must lynch EMC tomorrow.

That sounds like a terrible idea. Who would write the Chaqotle flavour then?

Note that he can't cite his town credentials in his defence, because he doesn't have any.

[Jamiet99uk]

Also why did everyone drop off the radar so suddenly

Says the dude who was absent for like 40 hours.

Piss off.

[Jamiet99uk]

I am the Cop. I have a guilty on Bozo.