MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[peterlund]

Let's think about it some more people. I think ##VOTE Kalel is the way to go today.

Here's my reasoning:

If we lynch goldfinger, then we need to be sure who to roleblock N3 so that Reaver2 doesn't recruit. I think it's likely to be Tom, but do we want to gamble on that?

If we kill the roleblocker, and keep roleblocking goldfinger, the Reavers don't grow. Also we get rid of the most annoying Mafia member, who can roleblock any one of our useful PRs.

If we're wrong about goldfinger being the RP (which I don't think we are) then killing him doesn't get us much: the Reavers are already three. And we will find out the truth tonight.

So I think Kalel is the best way to go today.

Thoughts?

Yes I agree. It would be great bonuses, if this theory is correct (Kalel RB, Gold RP), to lynch Kalel first and keep on blocking Gold so that Reavers do not grow in size.

##vote Kalel

[peterlund]

Sadly...if this hypothesis is correct any of the players who have gone silent would be really really good recruits. INCLUDING MY WIFE!! GORRAM IT GOLD, if you laid your filthy reaver hands on her, I'll tear you apart!

Why does Bunny need to continuously point out that he has a wife? Is this to prove his alignment of some sort? More to the point then. Do you have children together too?

[damo666]

@damo, you may want to consider a read of Tom tonight, although you may have been roleblocked.

Thanks. I will think carefully about who to read but obviously won't reveal target. Hopefully here at EON3 to reveL the report (if I get one).

[Temasek22]

Sadly...if this hypothesis is correct any of the players who have gone silent would be really really good recruits. INCLUDING MY WIFE!! GORRAM IT GOLD, if you laid your filthy reaver hands on her, I'll tear you apart!

Why does Bunny need to continuously point out that he has a wife? Is this to prove his alignment of some sort? More to the point then. Do you have children together too?

I think he keeps mentioning Tom to be his wife for whatever reason.

[Temasek22]

Voting seems quite divided now. Is gold the better lynch? Kalel feels like the more threatening one.

##Vote kalel

[damo666]

Maybe went for Rdr. Maybe went for person doctor protected. Maybe went for someone who was commuted.

xorxes was an unlikely Reaver choice, so one or two possibilities means there is a low probability of there being only one Reaver if goldfinger is RP. If we lynch Kalel today and RB goldfinger, we would be in the same situation D4 and we could lynch goldfinger then. If Kalel turns out to be a BH target, that would indicate goldfinger is the BH, and we might want to lynch him D4 to make sure he does not win, assuming he does not get lucky and win N3.

Correct. The biggest danger I see lynching Kalel if Goldie is telling the truth about being BH is as follows:

after we lynch, he announces to scum who his targets are, and that they clearly have no chance of winning, so should throw to him. Then both are executed during the evening.

I *think* that the reavers would have to be playing not to their win condition there (since if Goldie isn't RP then there are 3 of them and well hidden) but I'm not sure I understand well enough to judge.

There haven't been any bounties announced thus far. Not a concern yet.

[damo666]

Gold currently has 151 posts, so posting enough to get to the page number would be something...

Since we're on 158, I'm guessing he's hit that equality between posts and page number again. I'll check...

WOOOO!

NOPE! On page 31 and 32 were the only time the number of Gold's posts as recorded in the bot (which included pregame posts) equaled the page number they were posted on. Right before the warning.

Hey gold! Can you post say 20 small posts quickly? Get one to match the page number were on? When I was doing the scan I noticed one time (on page 20) when you may have noticed you got to 19 posts so you asked for others to start posting and then went silent for 4 pages.

Oh boy, I'm really hoping for a hit here (I really doubt it's correct, but it'll be fun to try). So Gold, care to indulge my dumb experiment?

Ridiculous.

First post on first page.....

No point trying to guess the rule. Needle in a billion haystacks.

[damo666]

Ok ##vote Kalel

[bozotheclown]

My question is why would you claim PR as the BH? That did make it inevitable that you would be caught.

Why is getting caught a concern where I have a role that doesn't need to be lynched by town? My biggest concern isn't a town lynch, but an accidental NK or reaver.

It is more likely that town will have to lynch the BH before he can win. Also, if I was the BH, I think I would welcome becoming a Reaver.

[BunnyGo]

Sadly...if this hypothesis is correct any of the players who have gone silent would be really really good recruits. INCLUDING MY WIFE!! GORRAM IT GOLD, if you laid your filthy reaver hands on her, I'll tear you apart!

Why does Bunny need to continuously point out that he has a wife? Is this to prove his alignment of some sort? More to the point then. Do you have children together too?

roleplay...Tom "is my wife"

[BunnyGo]

<snip>

Ridiculous.

First post on first page.....

No point trying to guess the rule. Needle in a billion haystacks.

He didnt post until page 5

There is a point...if we get it, we neuter our most dangerous enemy (mass claim only hurt the alliance).

And just because you're not good at finding this type of needle in a haystack doesn't mean everybody is bad at it. Actually, maybe you are good at it...maybe you've just never tried.

Also, what else is really going on in this game until we lynch someone and get some intel? Might as well do this.

[BunnyGo]

My question is why would you claim PR as the BH? That did make it inevitable that you would be caught.

Why is getting caught a concern where I have a role that doesn't need to be lynched by town? My biggest concern isn't a town lynch, but an accidental NK or reaver.

It is more likely that town will have to lynch the BH before he can win. Also, if I was the BH, I think I would welcome becoming a Reaver.

##CALL GM If BH is turned to a reaver do the bounty announcements stop?

[xorxes]

My question is why would you claim PR as the BH? That did make it inevitable that you would be caught.

Why is getting caught a concern where I have a role that doesn't need to be lynched by town? My biggest concern isn't a town lynch, but an accidental NK or reaver.

Claiming PR makes a NK more likely, not less.
Fakeclaiming PR makes a lynch almost inevitable.
The only people overly concerned with being reavered are people who hate playing scum (like myself), that does not seem to be the case with you from what you've been saying. And it is unclear why you would think that claiming PR would make you less vulnerable to being reavered.

So no, claiming PR makes very little sense for BH.

These are the obvious fakeclaims:

Roleblocker fakeclaims Companion
Investigator fakeclaims Reader
Agent fakeclaims VT
BH fakeclaims VT
RP fakeclaims something that won't get them lynched D1 so they have time to recruit. With the D1 claims of PR/VT that we did, this was claiming PR, because the idea was that we would lynch in the VT pool (as we did).

That's the obvious. The obvious is not always what happens, but so far there's no reason to suspect it is not what happened.

[xorxes]

My question is why would you claim PR as the BH? That did make it inevitable that you would be caught.

Why is getting caught a concern where I have a role that doesn't need to be lynched by town? My biggest concern isn't a town lynch, but an accidental NK or reaver.

It is more likely that town will have to lynch the BH before he can win. Also, if I was the BH, I think I would welcome becoming a Reaver.

It depends on who you randed as targets, I suppose. If they are all people likely to die before you, you would want to remain BH. If they were people likely to survive you, you would want to be reavered.

[damo666]

<snip>

Ridiculous.

First post on first page.....

No point trying to guess the rule. Needle in a billion haystacks.

He didnt post until page 5

There is a point...if we get it, we neuter our most dangerous enemy (mass claim only hurt the alliance).

And just because you're not good at finding this type of needle in a haystack doesn't mean everybody is bad at it. Actually, maybe you are good at it...maybe you've just never tried.

Also, what else is really going on in this game until we lynch someone and get some intel? Might as well do this.

What I mean is is that it is a most unlikely rule. Imo not yet worth working on, insufficient clues.

[Kitsune]

Why is getting caught a concern where I have a role that doesn't need to be lynched by town? My biggest concern isn't a town lynch, but an accidental NK or reaver.

It is more likely that town will have to lynch the BH before he can win. Also, if I was the BH, I think I would welcome becoming a Reaver.

##CALL GM If BH is turned to a reaver do the bounty announcements stop?

Only bounties killed while the BH is not a reaver will be announced as scheduled.

[teacon7]

Catching up now...

[Chaqa]

Morning all. Getting caught up again, just realizing goldie was reposting his posts from that time... I suppose I can do the work to compare them.

[Chaqa]

Bunny, when you quote a vote, does that mean you're now voting for worcej?

So, forgive me if my memory is wrong, but Tem was a VT scan, right? That leaves ND, bozo, Foxcastle, Chaqa and emc.

Assuming worcej is not RP (though he could be, which is why my vote is on him), that means one out of those 5 is the RP. Tem could always be agent, but we're hunting RP here. ND I've been getting straight town vibes from, but he's been oddly quiet of late. bozo I am on the fence with, I just have trouble reading his reactions, but I'll lean townier than not. Foxcastle is almost impossible to get a read on due to low engagement. emc has fluctuated between posting nonsense and then ever since I criticized him for it he's dropped completely off radar. And Chaqa jumped all over my CC like hotcakes as soon as I made it. The scum agent would have wanted to push as hard as they could for the CC battle that *wasn't* between their guys. So he's more scum team 1 in my eyes for that reason.

That means emc is my best guess for RP currently. I could entertain Foxcastle as well.

worcej said he had scanned Tem (but this is clearly false, or worc is Investigator) - it was ND who damo claimed to have scanned as a VT.

[Chaqa]

Not a problem Bunny. ##VOTE WORCEJ

But reading back on that...pressure really evaporated on emc. And he still hasn't contributed. Going forward I'd concentrate your watches and cop scans on him and Chaqa. They're scummiest among the VT pool, in my eyes.

Bozo, I'm interested in any sort of potential reaver rule that I hadn't thought of. Especially one that's easily verifiable by the GM. And yes, if you look back D1 I was consistently pushing back on the notion that BH was a threat for town. I think this is only like my 5th game of mafia, and every time I've been scum or third party and get found out real quick. Did manage to pull a third party victory though, despite that. So was just laying the groundwork for when the inevitable happened.

My question is why would you claim PR as the BH? That did make it inevitable that you would be caught.

Because he isn't the BH.