MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[BunnyGo]

One strange observation if we're looking for environmental:

At the time of the warning, we were on page 32.
Gold had just posted his 32nd post the bot was reading...

No idea if this has anything to it, but I'm chasing whatever.

Gold currently has 151 posts, so posting enough to get to the page number would be something...

Since we're on 158, I'm guessing he's hit that equality between posts and page number again. I'll check...

[BunnyGo]

One strange observation if we're looking for environmental:

At the time of the warning, we were on page 32.
Gold had just posted his 32nd post the bot was reading...

No idea if this has anything to it, but I'm chasing whatever.

Gold currently has 151 posts, so posting enough to get to the page number would be something...

Since we're on 158, I'm guessing he's hit that equality between posts and page number again. I'll check...

WOOOO!

NOPE! On page 31 and 32 were the only time the number of Gold's posts as recorded in the bot (which included pregame posts) equaled the page number they were posted on. Right before the warning.

Hey gold! Can you post say 20 small posts quickly? Get one to match the page number were on? When I was doing the scan I noticed one time (on page 20) when you may have noticed you got to 19 posts so you asked for others to start posting and then went silent for 4 pages.

Oh boy, I'm really hoping for a hit here (I really doubt it's correct, but it'll be fun to try). So Gold, care to indulge my dumb experiment?

[BunnyGo]

@Gold currently the bot says 151 posts. So you should only need 10 quick ones or so to get there and test this dumb theory.

[BunnyGo]

Actually, if this hypothesis is correct, then I'd be the worst reaver recruit EVER!

[BunnyGo]

@Gold currently the bot says 151 posts. So you should only need 10 quick ones or so to get there and test this dumb theory.

actually, you could test both my theories at once by posting those 15 requested reposts.

[BunnyGo]

Jesus a whole page was written since I started typing that.

Gold paying attention to the page number from the start? Unintentionally crumbing the reaver posting rules?

[bozotheclown]

@Gold currently the bot says 151 posts. So you should only need 10 quick ones or so to get there and test this dumb theory.

Interesting theory, but you seem to be counting pregame posts as well.

[BunnyGo]

@Gold currently the bot says 151 posts. So you should only need 10 quick ones or so to get there and test this dumb theory.

Interesting theory, but you seem to be counting pregame posts as well.

Yes. It makes it work...

[BunnyGo]

@Gold currently the bot says 151 posts. So you should only need 10 quick ones or so to get there and test this dumb theory.

Interesting theory, but you seem to be counting pregame posts as well.

I realize it also makes it convoluted, BUT it makes it easier for GMs to test with the bot

[bozotheclown]

@Gold currently the bot says 151 posts. So you should only need 10 quick ones or so to get there and test this dumb theory.

Interesting theory, but you seem to be counting pregame posts as well.

Yes. It makes it work...

If the criteria was to not post more than the current page number, it could explain the violation, if the GM used the "game global statistics" from the bot and goldfinger was watching the D1 posting statistics.

[BunnyGo]

Actually, if this hypothesis is correct, then I'd be the worst reaver recruit EVER!

Sadly...if this hypothesis is correct any of the players who have gone silent would be really really good recruits. INCLUDING MY WIFE!! GORRAM IT GOLD, if you laid your filthy reaver hands on her, I'll tear you apart!

[goldfinger0303]

Oooh, that's an interesting hypothesis there Bunny. Am I the only one it works for? If not, then sadly its not true, but thats some creative thinking you got there.

Will be reposting everything you asked. Apologies to everyone else for the upcoming spam.

[goldfinger0303]

BH's targets are random, so it really matters very little in regard to those targets how we decide our lynches. We basically have to ignore the BH and hope they die before their targets do.

It doesn't matter to us, but it matters a great deal to the BH. He might have to push a PR claimant, which is ... going to make his life difficult. net gain for all non-BH aligned.

Xorxes is right on this matter. BH doesn't have to push a PR claimant at all. Night kills work for them as well as lynches. Let me just copy and paste this for ya.

You are JUBAL EARLY, the BOUNTY HUNTER

During the day you must vote for a suspect.

<Name>, <Name> and <Name> are the players with bounties on them in this sector. If all targets are killed by lynch or night kill and you are not dead, you win the game. Each End of Night, news reaches the Town publicly that a payment has been made into the Bounty Hunter’s accounts for the death of any of your targets eliminated.

You win when your targets are eliminated, you are alive and no other faction has already won.

Essentially, BH is just a random crapshoot that town can't control or factor in. An artificial time limit on the game. BH doesn't have to push anyone. Just let the game play out and survive as long as possible. It's something we can bring up in later days, but it's really not something we should be concerned about with D1. As I've said before, BH is a bigger threat to scum than town.

[goldfinger0303]

I'd really like to see more from Bozo, Vecna, damo....jeez there's more but I have to go back and read the signup list because we only really have like a dozen posters. Superstition has posted a few times but it's only been the "Wow, this is new! I'm so new!" type posts.

[bozotheclown]

Oooh, that's an interesting hypothesis there Bunny. Am I the only one it works for? If not, then sadly its not true, but thats some creative thinking you got there.

Will be reposting everything you asked. Apologies to everyone else for the upcoming spam.

Why would it matter if it works for anyone else if you are the RP?

[bozotheclown]

It is interesting you posted the BH role PM D1. Was that a BH crumb?

[goldfinger0303]

From a high level - there's 20 players, right? If all 10 of our knowing PRs claimed PR, we'd immediately drop the lynch pool to 10, giving us 50/50 odds. Now, we would also hopefully have *VERY* rough townreads on at least one or two people, so let's say we eliminate one person on feelings alone.

Nine people. Have the vigilante shoot one. Eight people. Lynch one.

This is basically similar to the Monty Hall problem - the probability of someone being scum (defined here as non-town) is 5/20. However, when we factor in that we're excluding the 10 PRs, it really becomes 15/20 (not 5/10, as some would say, as you can count the "opened" doors, similar to Monty Hall).

That's a 75% chance to hit scum on the vig shot. Followed by a 14/19 or 15/19 for the lynch, which is either 73.7%, or 79%. I like those odds a whole fucking lot.

Chaqa, that's not how Monty Hall works. You need to pick scum *before* the PR reveal for that analogy to work. So we should have our lunch target and vig shot lined up before, if you want those percentages to be accurate.

The possibility of a counterclaim really just tears your scenario to shreds. (Although it has other benefits)

[goldfinger0303]

@Chaqa - right now, who are your top three scum targets. Gotta have that much if you want the Money Hall solution

[goldfinger0303]

@Chaqa - right now, who are your top three scum targets. Gotta have that much if you want the Money Hall solution

If I had to pick three currently?

Vecna - guilty until proven innocent
Rivera - very offput by a few posts of his and general weirdness
Flavius - he's been much too quiet

Two quiet votes and rdrivera? That's a surprise. Given how active you've been, especially in pushing the massclaim, I thought you'd have a bit more insight.

[goldfinger0303]

Alrighty. Approaching 24 hours in and we have a lot to talk about already.

I find myself agreeing with a lot of what ND has said.

First off, the following people are currently in line to be mod killed due to lack of votes: bozo, damo, darg, Flav, Kalel, peterlund, Super, Tem, Tom and Vecna. damo, bozo and Vecna have not met the post requirement. Bozo has arguably broken the rules regarding encryption.

I would ask that everyone take their votes off of these players. Or at least the ones who haven't met the post requirements. We get more value in applying pressure to those that are around to answer questions. Once these people raise their lurking little heads, we can skewer them.

Second, stop claiming roles until we get a larger consensus. There are people, myself included, who remain unconvinced that this is the best course of action to take. I still believe that the benefits to the scum outweigh the positives to the town. Right now, all your claims are doing are muddying the waters. Until we reach the point where every single PR has claimed, all this does is allow scum to slip into easy townreads, while they know who the PRs are.

Finally, Xorxes, I understand now why you didn't want to immediately have the GM verify your role. However, if you don't get GM verification by 6 hours before phase end, I *will* push for your lynch. Since you've already claimed captain, we need your extra votes.