MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[BunnyGo]

If goldfinger is the RP, why would not have successfully recruited N1?

Maybe went for Rdr. Maybe went for person doctor protected. Maybe went for someone who was commuted.

xorxes was an unlikely Reaver choice, so one or two possibilities means there is a low probability of there being only one Reaver if goldfinger is RP. If we lynch Kalel today and RB goldfinger, we would be in the same situation D4 and we could lynch goldfinger then. If Kalel turns out to be a BH target, that would indicate goldfinger is the BH, and we might want to lynch him D4 to make sure he does not win, assuming he does not get lucky and win N3.

Correct. The biggest danger I see lynching Kalel if Goldie is telling the truth about being BH is as follows:

after we lynch, he announces to scum who his targets are, and that they clearly have no chance of winning, so should throw to him. Then both are executed during the evening.

I *think* that the reavers would have to be playing not to their win condition there (since if Goldie isn't RP then there are 3 of them and well hidden) but I'm not sure I understand well enough to judge.

[BunnyGo]

The argument for staying on Goldie is to bank hard on him being the only reaver. I'll try and take another dive to see if I can get some hypotheses about reaver triggering (assuming Goldie is the reaver) if Goldie is on board with experimenting, we'll see.

If goldfinger is the RP, why would not have successfully recruited N1?

Maybe he targeted teacon or rivera. Or maybe Bunny commuted and he targeted Bunny. But there's no reason to suppose that he would have targeted any of those three. There is a good reason to think he may have targeted Tom.

Maybe I commuted Tom during N1...

[xorxes]

Maybe went for Rdr. Maybe went for person doctor protected. Maybe went for someone who was commuted.

xorxes was an unlikely Reaver choice, so one or two possibilities means there is a low probability of there being only one Reaver if goldfinger is RP. If we lynch Kalel today and RB goldfinger, we would be in the same situation D4 and we could lynch goldfinger then. If Kalel turns out to be a BH target, that would indicate goldfinger is the BH, and we might want to lynch him D4 to make sure he does not win, assuming he does not get lucky and win N3.

Correct. The biggest danger I see lynching Kalel if Goldie is telling the truth about being BH is as follows:

after we lynch, he announces to scum who his targets are, and that they clearly have no chance of winning, so should throw to him. Then both are executed during the evening.

I *think* that the reavers would have to be playing not to their win condition there (since if Goldie isn't RP then there are 3 of them and well hidden) but I'm not sure I understand well enough to judge.

Mafia may want to throw to him (although we are not completely sure who the Agent is yet) but why would the Reavers in that scenario want to throw to the BH? Reavers would be in a pretty good position if we're wrong about goldfinger being the Reaver. I see no reason they would throw the game to him.

[BunnyGo]

xorxes was an unlikely Reaver choice, so one or two possibilities means there is a low probability of there being only one Reaver if goldfinger is RP. If we lynch Kalel today and RB goldfinger, we would be in the same situation D4 and we could lynch goldfinger then. If Kalel turns out to be a BH target, that would indicate goldfinger is the BH, and we might want to lynch him D4 to make sure he does not win, assuming he does not get lucky and win N3.

Correct. The biggest danger I see lynching Kalel if Goldie is telling the truth about being BH is as follows:

after we lynch, he announces to scum who his targets are, and that they clearly have no chance of winning, so should throw to him. Then both are executed during the evening.

I *think* that the reavers would have to be playing not to their win condition there (since if Goldie isn't RP then there are 3 of them and well hidden) but I'm not sure I understand well enough to judge.

Mafia may want to throw to him (although we are not completely sure who the Agent is yet) but why would the Reavers in that scenario want to throw to the BH? Reavers would be in a pretty good position if we're wrong about goldfinger being the Reaver. I see no reason they would throw the game to him.

I agree. Merely a concern.

[xorxes]

If goldfinger is the RP, why would not have successfully recruited N1?

Maybe he targeted teacon or rivera. Or maybe Bunny commuted and he targeted Bunny. But there's no reason to suppose that he would have targeted any of those three. There is a good reason to think he may have targeted Tom.

Maybe I commuted Tom during N1...

If you did, you should probably tell us before damo wastes a scan on him.

[BunnyGo]

xorxes was an unlikely Reaver choice, so one or two possibilities means there is a low probability of there being only one Reaver if goldfinger is RP. If we lynch Kalel today and RB goldfinger, we would be in the same situation D4 and we could lynch goldfinger then. If Kalel turns out to be a BH target, that would indicate goldfinger is the BH, and we might want to lynch him D4 to make sure he does not win, assuming he does not get lucky and win N3.

Correct. The biggest danger I see lynching Kalel if Goldie is telling the truth about being BH is as follows:

after we lynch, he announces to scum who his targets are, and that they clearly have no chance of winning, so should throw to him. Then both are executed during the evening.

I *think* that the reavers would have to be playing not to their win condition there (since if Goldie isn't RP then there are 3 of them and well hidden) but I'm not sure I understand well enough to judge.

Mafia may want to throw to him (although we are not completely sure who the Agent is yet) but why would the Reavers in that scenario want to throw to the BH? Reavers would be in a pretty good position if we're wrong about goldfinger being the Reaver. I see no reason they would throw the game to him.

I think it would also be against the rules to throw from that position.

[BunnyGo]

Maybe he targeted teacon or rivera. Or maybe Bunny commuted and he targeted Bunny. But there's no reason to suppose that he would have targeted any of those three. There is a good reason to think he may have targeted Tom.

Maybe I commuted Tom during N1...

If you did, you should probably tell us before damo wastes a scan on him.

Wait...so now you *do* want me telling people who I commuted? It's not like you don't know. I couldn't commute you last night and Tom on N1.

[Chaqa]

Look, there’s so much WIFOM here.

It’s one of those three. Everyone vote for who you think we should lynch, and the we can break it down

[xorxes]

Maybe I commuted Tom during N1...

If you did, you should probably tell us before damo wastes a scan on him.

Wait...so now you *do* want me telling people who I commuted? It's not like you don't know. I couldn't commute you last night and Tom on N1.

Sigh... I said *if* you commuted Tom you should tell us.

[BunnyGo]

If you did, you should probably tell us before damo wastes a scan on him.

Wait...so now you *do* want me telling people who I commuted? It's not like you don't know. I couldn't commute you last night and Tom on N1.

Sigh... I said *if* you commuted Tom you should tell us.

Ok...I didn't commute Tom (honest truth. I did however let Zoe take a ride on my rocket later that night...)

[BunnyGo]

Look, there’s so much WIFOM here.

It’s one of those three. Everyone vote for who you think we should lynch, and the we can break it down

If our anonymous AND STAY ANONYMOUS PLEASE back up companion continues visiting and companioning Goldie at night, then I have no problem with this plan.

I think Goldie doesn't mind being companioned either.

[Chaqa]

This is too much thinking for me tonight.

I’ll try to come back swinging tomorrow

[goldfinger0303]

Look, there’s so much WIFOM here.

It’s one of those three. Everyone vote for who you think we should lynch, and the we can break it down

If our anonymous AND STAY ANONYMOUS PLEASE back up companion continues visiting and companioning Goldie at night, then I have no problem with this plan.

I think Goldie doesn't mind being companioned either.

I'm so lonely at night

[dargorygel]

Not sure the order matters.
##vote goldfinger
Even though he's been a star this game.

[ND]

Goldfinger still seems decent to me.

[BunnyGo]

Goldfinger still seems decent to me.

And worcej?

[BunnyGo]

Goldfinger still seems decent to me.

Also, can you elaborate on the word "decent"?

[BunnyGo]

OK here are the following hypotheses being tested:

1) Goldfinger is the reaver prime
2) He somehow triggered the alert back on page 32
3) He is sincere in his offer to post anything I request (I'd like if he could test it now, he can repost everything identically in individual posts starting with viewtopic.php?p=120903#p120903
until he gets to his post
viewtopic.php?p=121161#p121161
In all there should be 15 different posts)
4) He knows that simply reposting what he posted in the start of the game won't trigger an alert
5) Whatever does trigger an alert needs to be testable/findable by GMs.

So...any such reaver problem needs to be environmental somehow...Are there other things that could do it if these 5 hypotheses are true?

[BunnyGo]

One strange observation if we're looking for environmental:

At the time of the warning, we were on page 32.
Gold had just posted his 32nd post the bot was reading...

No idea if this has anything to it, but I'm chasing whatever.

[BunnyGo]

One strange observation if we're looking for environmental:

At the time of the warning, we were on page 32.
Gold had just posted his 32nd post the bot was reading...

No idea if this has anything to it, but I'm chasing whatever.

Gold currently has 151 posts, so posting enough to get to the page number would be something...