MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

I say we just kill Goldie and get the information.

[BunnyGo]

Why? It doesn't say it can't be used consecutively on the same person. I'm not sure why he should stay silent, but maybe I'm missing something.

You, on the other hand, should talk way less about what you may or may not have done with your power in previous nights.

I think Tom gives away guesses of what will be bodyguarded tomorrow. I think we preserve a very powerful combo of doctor protects Tom and Tom protects other person...This way the doctor protects 2 people at once.

I can guard the same person consecutively so it doesn’t really matter

ok then...I was merely suggesting it lets them know your headspace.

Since the person you guard cannot confirm it, unless you went to xorxes (so watcher can cofirm), then I don't see the point.

[BunnyGo]

I say we just kill Goldie and get the information.

There's something to be said for Kalel...we get *some* information about Goldie (it's indirect, but something) and we do remove an enemy RB.

[BunnyGo]

The argument for staying on Goldie is to bank hard on him being the only reaver. I'll try and take another dive to see if I can get some hypotheses about reaver triggering (assuming Goldie is the reaver) if Goldie is on board with experimenting, we'll see.

[goldfinger0303]

Yes, Chaqa just keep parroting the confirmed scum.

Okay, let me break it down.

Scenario 1: I am RP. You can prevent more reavers from forming by roleblocking me. Kalel said he roleblocked me, so I could not recruit someone else. If you lynch me, the new reaver infects someone else. Or a NK goes through. I'm a little fuzzy on the rules. Keep me alive, and my faction cannot NK AND you force Kalel to keep roleblocking me. Double win.

Scenario 2: I am not RP. You gain literally nothing from killing me, because town doesn't have to kill me to win. I have zero bounties collected, so I am not a threat.

Calmly consider this, and then ##vote worcej

[goldfinger0303]

The argument for staying on Goldie is to bank hard on him being the only reaver. I'll try and take another dive to see if I can get some hypotheses about reaver triggering (assuming Goldie is the reaver) if Goldie is on board with experimenting, we'll see.

Just tell me what to post and when and I'll post it.

[xorxes]

Let's think about it some more people. I think ##VOTE Kalel is the way to go today.

Here's my reasoning:

If we lynch goldfinger, then we need to be sure who to roleblock N3 so that Reaver2 doesn't recruit. I think it's likely to be Tom, but do we want to gamble on that?

If we kill the roleblocker, and keep roleblocking goldfinger, the Reavers don't grow. Also we get rid of the most annoying Mafia member, who can roleblock any one of our useful PRs.

If we're wrong about goldfinger being the RP (which I don't think we are) then killing him doesn't get us much: the Reavers are already three. And we will find out the truth tonight.

So I think Kalel is the best way to go today.

Thoughts?

What makes you think there aren’t already three Reaver’d? Are you That sure Goldie is RP?

No...but I think it's worth pretending it is AND that he missed night 1. If we're wrong, oh well, if we're right it's good for us to protect that scenario.

"If we're wrong , oh well"? No, that's not the attitude. We should try the best strategy, not a strategy based on a wild guess that does not have a lot to back it up (other than someone being convinced that they were the optimal choice for the Reaver to make).

[Chaqa]

Yes, Chaqa just keep parroting the confirmed scum.

Okay, let me break it down.

Scenario 1: I am RP. You can prevent more reavers from forming by roleblocking me. Kalel said he roleblocked me, so I could not recruit someone else. If you lynch me, the new reaver infects someone else. Or a NK goes through. I'm a little fuzzy on the rules. Keep me alive, and my faction cannot NK AND you force Kalel to keep roleblocking me. Double win.

Scenario 2: I am not RP. You gain literally nothing from killing me, because town doesn't have to kill me to win. I have zero bounties collected, so I am not a threat.

Calmly consider this, and then ##vote worcej

I’m not parroting Kalel?

[xorxes]

I think my sexy wife should stay silent on this fact for now.

Why? It doesn't say it can't be used consecutively on the same person. I'm not sure why he should stay silent, but maybe I'm missing something.

You, on the other hand, should talk way less about what you may or may not have done with your power in previous nights.

Sorry, I thought you'd want to confirm I still had my powers to the group anyways. Wasn't that the plan?

Yes, but not now! Only once we know that the Reaver can't convert anyone anymore. Then the proof will be solid. Now it is wasted, because you could be converted after you demonstrate, and then you can no longer demonstrate. That's why it was so silly making me waste my power D1, I can no longer use it to demonstrate I was not Reavered, and we have to rely on the cumbersome voting wagons mechanism. (For today we have dargo's evidence that nobody visited me though, so thankfully we can do away with that,)

[xorxes]

I think my sexy wife should stay silent on this fact for now.

Why? It doesn't say it can't be used consecutively on the same person. I'm not sure why he should stay silent, but maybe I'm missing something.

You, on the other hand, should talk way less about what you may or may not have done with your power in previous nights.

I think Tom gives away guesses of what will be bodyguarded tomorrow. I think we preserve a very powerful combo of doctor protects Tom and Tom protects other person...This way the doctor protects 2 people at once.

Not if Tom is a Reaver we don't.

And the doctor should not waste a save on Tom. Mafia won't try to kill him as long as he is suspected of being a Reaver.

[bozotheclown]

The argument for staying on Goldie is to bank hard on him being the only reaver. I'll try and take another dive to see if I can get some hypotheses about reaver triggering (assuming Goldie is the reaver) if Goldie is on board with experimenting, we'll see.

If goldfinger is the RP, why would not have successfully recruited N1?

[xorxes]

@Kalel - who did you roleblock

As if you didn't know.

Does that mean you roleblocked goldfinger? Why waste it on him when our guy was already doing that?

[BunnyGo]

What makes you think there aren’t already three Reaver’d? Are you That sure Goldie is RP?

No...but I think it's worth pretending it is AND that he missed night 1. If we're wrong, oh well, if we're right it's good for us to protect that scenario.

"If we're wrong , oh well"? No, that's not the attitude. We should try the best strategy, not a strategy based on a wild guess that does not have a lot to back it up (other than someone being convinced that they were the optimal choice for the Reaver to make).

"best" is dependent on known unknowns. The "best" strategy is different depending on what the actual situation is.

One thing we *could* do is play safe and risk a close game at the end.
One thing we *could* do is play a gamble and potentially win safely, and potentially have a close game at the end we're slightly behind on

This last no kill eve was big for us, and I think it gives us enough leeway to gamble on a safe win without sacrificing much. It's an idea.

The problem with continually RB on Goldie is:

1) He may not be RB, and we won't find out for a while
2) We now have two key PRs to protect (our unknown Inara 2.0 and Damo)

The plus is:

1) If we keep an RB on Goldie and 2 deaths occur, we can be sure that Goldie is not RP.

So yeah...maybe ##VOTE Kalel is better.

[BunnyGo]

The argument for staying on Goldie is to bank hard on him being the only reaver. I'll try and take another dive to see if I can get some hypotheses about reaver triggering (assuming Goldie is the reaver) if Goldie is on board with experimenting, we'll see.

If goldfinger is the RP, why would not have successfully recruited N1?

Maybe went for Rdr. Maybe went for person doctor protected. Maybe went for someone who was commuted.

[xorxes]

Let's think about it some more people. I think ##VOTE Kalel is the way to go today.

Here's my reasoning:

If we lynch goldfinger, then we need to be sure who to roleblock N3 so that Reaver2 doesn't recruit. I think it's likely to be Tom, but do we want to gamble on that?

If we kill the roleblocker, and keep roleblocking goldfinger, the Reavers don't grow. Also we get rid of the most annoying Mafia member, who can roleblock any one of our useful PRs.

If we're wrong about goldfinger being the RP (which I don't think we are) then killing him doesn't get us much: the Reavers are already three. And we will find out the truth tonight.

So I think Kalel is the best way to go today.

Thoughts?

I win most annoying? Not the trophy I was going for.

The only way to have a chance of not having 3 reavers out there is to kill Goldie today.

Not you personally Kalel, it's your power that is annoying.

As long as we keep roleblocking him, he can't create a third reaver. Killing him today increases the chances that Reaver2 creates Reaver3, because we're less sure of who Reaver2 might be, so we won't know who to roleblock.

[xorxes]

I think Tom gives away guesses of what will be bodyguarded tomorrow. I think we preserve a very powerful combo of doctor protects Tom and Tom protects other person...This way the doctor protects 2 people at once.

I can guard the same person consecutively so it doesn’t really matter

ok then...I was merely suggesting it lets them know your headspace.

Since the person you guard cannot confirm it, unless you went to xorxes (so watcher can cofirm), then I don't see the point.

There's not much point now. There was a point if he did it before dargo revealed who he was watching.

[BunnyGo]

Let's think about it some more people. I think ##VOTE Kalel is the way to go today.

Here's my reasoning:

If we lynch goldfinger, then we need to be sure who to roleblock N3 so that Reaver2 doesn't recruit. I think it's likely to be Tom, but do we want to gamble on that?

If we kill the roleblocker, and keep roleblocking goldfinger, the Reavers don't grow. Also we get rid of the most annoying Mafia member, who can roleblock any one of our useful PRs.

If we're wrong about goldfinger being the RP (which I don't think we are) then killing him doesn't get us much: the Reavers are already three. And we will find out the truth tonight.

So I think Kalel is the best way to go today.

Thoughts?

I win most annoying? Not the trophy I was going for.

The only way to have a chance of not having 3 reavers out there is to kill Goldie today.

Not you personally Kalel, it's your power that is annoying.

As long as we keep roleblocking him, he can't create a third reaver. Killing him today increases the chances that Reaver2 creates Reaver3, because we're less sure of who Reaver2 might be, so we won't know who to roleblock.

Yes, that makes sense. And if we ever have a night with 2 kills then we know hat Goldie isn't RB.

[bozotheclown]

The argument for staying on Goldie is to bank hard on him being the only reaver. I'll try and take another dive to see if I can get some hypotheses about reaver triggering (assuming Goldie is the reaver) if Goldie is on board with experimenting, we'll see.

If goldfinger is the RP, why would not have successfully recruited N1?

Maybe went for Rdr. Maybe went for person doctor protected. Maybe went for someone who was commuted.

xorxes was an unlikely Reaver choice, so one or two possibilities means there is a low probability of there being only one Reaver if goldfinger is RP. If we lynch Kalel today and RB goldfinger, we would be in the same situation D4 and we could lynch goldfinger then. If Kalel turns out to be a BH target, that would indicate goldfinger is the BH, and we might want to lynch him D4 to make sure he does not win, assuming he does not get lucky and win N3.

[xorxes]

Yes, Chaqa just keep parroting the confirmed scum.

Okay, let me break it down.

Scenario 1: I am RP. You can prevent more reavers from forming by roleblocking me. Kalel said he roleblocked me, so I could not recruit someone else. If you lynch me, the new reaver infects someone else. Or a NK goes through. I'm a little fuzzy on the rules. Keep me alive, and my faction cannot NK AND you force Kalel to keep roleblocking me. Double win.

Scenario 2: I am not RP. You gain literally nothing from killing me, because town doesn't have to kill me to win. I have zero bounties collected, so I am not a threat.

Calmly consider this, and then ##vote worcej

Kalel's word is worth very little to town. There's no way we can bank on it being true. We are assuming that the new Companion roleblocked you though.

Voting for worcej is silly. He is most likely the Investigator. And if he is RP, there's probably three Reavers already ot there, so we don't have that much urgency to kill him.

The proper lynch today is Kalel.

[xorxes]

The argument for staying on Goldie is to bank hard on him being the only reaver. I'll try and take another dive to see if I can get some hypotheses about reaver triggering (assuming Goldie is the reaver) if Goldie is on board with experimenting, we'll see.

If goldfinger is the RP, why would not have successfully recruited N1?

Maybe he targeted teacon or rivera. Or maybe Bunny commuted and he targeted Bunny. But there's no reason to suppose that he would have targeted any of those three. There is a good reason to think he may have targeted Tom.