MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[BunnyGo]

Okay then, I know another scum.

##Vote BOZOTHECLOWN

Agreed. But worcej is higher priority. Don’t let the worst captain ever lead this. Follow the pilot. I’ll take us there anyways.

Since you are now confirmed town, I would like to know why you think I am most likely to be scum among the VT claimants. ND and Chaqa are now my top suspects, their voting for each other at the start of D2 when it was obvious that we would have scum vs. town CCs today was a little too over the top.

Basically (and again on phone at work so high level summary) you have done at least 1 major anti-town thing every phase. It’s soooo bad it’s almost come around to towny, but i just don’t get how you could be Town and keep being this anti-town.

[damo666]

Assuming a Reaver was successfully recruited N1, we currently have 12 town, 5 mafia, and the BH.

Best case lynches, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-1-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-1-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-0-3-1)
N4: NK successful (7-0-3-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (7-0-2-1)
N5: NK successful (6-0-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (6-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (5-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (5-0-0-1)

No mislynches but worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 2 (10-2-2-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-2-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-1-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (6-1-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (6-1-1-1)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-1-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 1 (4-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (3-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (3-0-0-1)

Mislynch today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: mislynch (11-3-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (9-3-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (9-2-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (7-2-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (7-2-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (5-2-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (5-1-2-1)
N5: NKs successful (3-1-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (3-1-1-1)
N6: NKs successful (1-1-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (1-0-1-1)
N7: NK successful (0-0-1-1)

Lynch BH today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch BH (12-3-2-0)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-3-3-0)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-2-3-0)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-3-0)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (8-2-2-0)
N4: NKs successful (6-2-2-0)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (6-1-2-0)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-2-0)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (4-1-1-0)
N6: NKs successful (2-1-1-0)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (2-0-1-0)
N7: NK successful (1-0-1-0)

Bottom line: Mislynching or lynching the BH today could result in a town loss even if we have no more mislynches if things go poorly. However, considering the amount of time it will take to eliminate the mafia, it will likely become necessary to lynch the BH at some point to keep him from winning.

So mislynching today is potentially very dangerous even if it gives us info so we must vote worcej.

##vote worcej

[Chaqa]

Assuming a Reaver was successfully recruited N1, we currently have 12 town, 5 mafia, and the BH.

Best case lynches, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-1-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-1-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-0-3-1)
N4: NK successful (7-0-3-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (7-0-2-1)
N5: NK successful (6-0-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (6-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (5-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (5-0-0-1)

No mislynches but worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 2 (10-2-2-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-2-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-1-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (6-1-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (6-1-1-1)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-1-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 1 (4-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (3-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (3-0-0-1)

Mislynch today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: mislynch (11-3-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (9-3-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (9-2-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (7-2-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (7-2-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (5-2-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (5-1-2-1)
N5: NKs successful (3-1-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (3-1-1-1)
N6: NKs successful (1-1-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (1-0-1-1)
N7: NK successful (0-0-1-1)

Lynch BH today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch BH (12-3-2-0)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-3-3-0)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-2-3-0)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-3-0)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (8-2-2-0)
N4: NKs successful (6-2-2-0)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (6-1-2-0)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-2-0)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (4-1-1-0)
N6: NKs successful (2-1-1-0)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (2-0-1-0)
N7: NK successful (1-0-1-0)

Bottom line: Mislynching or lynching the BH today could result in a town loss even if we have no more mislynches if things go poorly. However, considering the amount of time it will take to eliminate the mafia, it will likely become necessary to lynch the BH at some point to keep him from winning.

This assumes mafia never hit each other, though, correct? So, I think if our worst case has us barely losing, we should be relatively safe taking the day to eliminate worcej.

There's the vig shots too

Have you been paying attention? Peter blew his load already. He only gets another shot if we lynch him, which I don't see much reason to do right now since we have a few good 50/50s plus worcej, and then more scans if damo lives.

[Temasek22]

A Reaver’d captain doesn’t lose his votes???

He does. But we only see +C. We find out what C is worth at EOD ##CALL GM is that correct? You’ll tell all of us the numerical value of C at EOD?

I went back and looked and the EoD vote count just said 9+C, when there were 9 people including xorxes on the Flavius wagon...

Did we mis that back then? Is Kit really know making the final number match? This is so unusual in so many ways from every mafia game I've ever played...

Ikr, very unusual game even for my small sample size (which included M50 amongst all things)

[bozotheclown]

1. The player will still receive a +C in the VC with the special votes (if any) taking effect to the order of wagons at EOD.

A Reaver’d captain doesn’t lose his votes???

He does. But we only see +C. We find out what C is worth at EOD ##CALL GM is that correct? You’ll tell all of us the numerical value of C at EOD?

This is an important question.

FlaviusAetius (9 + C) - rdrivera2005, teacon7, dargorygel, xorxes, Chaqa, goldfinger0303, bozotheclown, Tom Bombadil, peterlund,
e.m.c^42 (6) - Temasek22, Jamiet99uk, KalelChase, BunnyGo, damo666,
FlaviusAetius
Jamiet99uk (1) - e.m.c^42
Chaqa (1) - ND
xorxes (1) - Superstition
bozotheclown (1) - worcej

This was from EOD D1, and we never found out the value of C, although this could be because there was no way it could not be 2 yet. If we do not find out the value of C at EOD, that means we will not be able to determine if Jamie is the doctor at EOD.

[teacon7]

i like scanning jamie.

I think our scanner is very very important for reaver hunting.

I think you're wrong about the Inara CC wih kalel.

I think worcej has a good chance of being reaver.

Does scan differentiate between scum?

The Reader scan produces roles. Here's the post from page 1:

You are RIVER TAM, the READER ::snip:: Any phase you may instruct the GMs via private message that you are Reading any other player. The GM will advise you via private message of your target’s Role except where Masked (Agent role or Backup Town while their primary is still alive). A Masked Role will appear as Vanilla Town.

worcej could easily be reaver, sure. If he's not now, he will be soon, right? if town says "let's leave this guy alone, we don't have to kill him for our wincon" ...then he's a high value reaver target.

[Temasek22]

This assumes mafia never hit each other, though, correct? So, I think if our worst case has us barely losing, we should be relatively safe taking the day to eliminate worcej.

There's the vig shots too

Have you been paying attention? Peter blew his load already. He only gets another shot if we lynch him, which I don't see much reason to do right now since we have a few good 50/50s plus worcej, and then more scans if damo lives.

Huh, that I didn't know. Sorry, never seen this setup for a big and generally a busy day.

[teacon7]

I'm thinking kalel right now because I think he just slipped. I guess I'd have to re-think the lineup to account for the Agent scanning as VT. some combinations don't work out. maybe I need to sleep.

I think a sick dad is a reason to not RB anyone.

Also scum have a RB too.

[bozotheclown]

Assuming a Reaver was successfully recruited N1, we currently have 12 town, 5 mafia, and the BH.

Best case lynches, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-1-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-1-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-0-3-1)
N4: NK successful (7-0-3-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (7-0-2-1)
N5: NK successful (6-0-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (6-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (5-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (5-0-0-1)

No mislynches but worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 2 (10-2-2-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-2-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-1-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (6-1-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (6-1-1-1)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-1-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 1 (4-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (3-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (3-0-0-1)

Mislynch today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: mislynch (11-3-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (9-3-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (9-2-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (7-2-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (7-2-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (5-2-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (5-1-2-1)
N5: NKs successful (3-1-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (3-1-1-1)
N6: NKs successful (1-1-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (1-0-1-1)
N7: NK successful (0-0-1-1)

Lynch BH today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch BH (12-3-2-0)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-3-3-0)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-2-3-0)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-3-0)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (8-2-2-0)
N4: NKs successful (6-2-2-0)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (6-1-2-0)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-2-0)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (4-1-1-0)
N6: NKs successful (2-1-1-0)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (2-0-1-0)
N7: NK successful (1-0-1-0)

Bottom line: Mislynching or lynching the BH today could result in a town loss even if we have no more mislynches if things go poorly. However, considering the amount of time it will take to eliminate the mafia, it will likely become necessary to lynch the BH at some point to keep him from winning.

This assumes mafia never hit each other, though, correct? So, I think if our worst case has us barely losing, we should be relatively safe taking the day to eliminate worcej.

Yes, worse case NKs means 2 town NKs when there are 2 mafia teams, so no hitting each other or hitting the same target.

[peterlund]

Great way to cause a tie.

It will not be a tie, if Xorx's wagon is one behind or equal and he has his +2 powers intact.

All it takes is one scum (who we have a few who are nearly caught) sacrificing themselves to cause a tie or something.

There's no reason to risk it. the EoD vote count numbers will let us know if xorx is good or not.

No does not seem to be visible in the VC how much "C" in worth. Looking at the VC from Day 1 voting we got this:

FlaviusAetius (9 + C) - rdrivera2005, teacon7, dargorygel, xorxes, Chaqa, goldfinger0303, bozotheclown, Tom Bombadil, peterlund,
e.m.c^42 (6) - Temasek22, Jamiet99uk, KalelChase, BunnyGo, damo666,
FlaviusAetius
Jamiet99u​k (1) - e.m.c^42
Chaqa (1) - ND
xorxes (1) - Superstition
bozotheclown (1) - worcej

In is nowhere said if C = "+2" or "+0". "9" is the number that the bot reported so we would not know if it was 11 or 9 if this would have been the result from Day 2.

[bozotheclown]

Agreed. But worcej is higher priority. Don’t let the worst captain ever lead this. Follow the pilot. I’ll take us there anyways.

Since you are now confirmed town, I would like to know why you think I am most likely to be scum among the VT claimants. ND and Chaqa are now my top suspects, their voting for each other at the start of D2 when it was obvious that we would have scum vs. town CCs today was a little too over the top.

Basically (and again on phone at work so high level summary) you have done at least 1 major anti-town thing every phase. It’s soooo bad it’s almost come around to towny, but i just don’t get how you could be Town and keep being this anti-town.

When you have time, can you give me a list of the "anti-town" things?

[damo666]

@GM Do we get to know the number of Xorxes" votes even if it is immaterial to the result.

[teacon7]

oh wow. I've never been n1'd before! Thanks @scum I'm so honored.

The NK probably did target Rdr directly, as Rdr said that he did not activate his Twin action. I see it as MUCH more probable that scum NK rdr than teacon. Sorry Teacon to disturb you in your joyful moment...

Aww. You're probably right. I softed "reader" during N1, figuring I'd get shot at an then cleared. But it makes sense that they'd target rdrivera.

[damo666]

A Reaver’d captain doesn’t lose his votes???

He does. But we only see +C. We find out what C is worth at EOD ##CALL GM is that correct? You’ll tell all of us the numerical value of C at EOD?

This is an important question.

FlaviusAetius (9 + C) - rdrivera2005, teacon7, dargorygel, xorxes, Chaqa, goldfinger0303, bozotheclown, Tom Bombadil, peterlund,
e.m.c^42 (6) - Temasek22, Jamiet99uk, KalelChase, BunnyGo, damo666,
FlaviusAetius
Jamiet99uk (1) - e.m.c^42
Chaqa (1) - ND
xorxes (1) - Superstition
bozotheclown (1) - worcej

This was from EOD D1, and we never found out the value of C, although this could be because there was no way it could not be 2 yet. If we do not find out the value of C at EOD, that means we will not be able to determine if Jamie is the doctor at EOD.

You mean C could not yet be 1. It was zero then.

What we need to know is if Xorxes' votes to total 2 (ie C=1). Pedantic but we need to avoid confusion.

[goldfinger0303]

Yes, I am the Doctor. I protected Tom last night.

Originally, ironically enough, I was going to protect teacon since he was my top town read in the claimed PR group. However, once peter shot I changed to Tom, as he'd be the biggest asset for the reaver. Scum team 1 was pretty much dead with the three confirmed PRs, so reaver was our only threat. Xorxes and peter can both be caught pretty easy if they're recruited (peter we'd just lynch and have him kill someone with his death shot), so Tom was the bigger threat.

Chaqa looking hella suspicious though so far today. My guess of scumteam 1 is worcej, Jamiet and Chaqa now.

I think Goldie is lying here! Why would confirmed town be an "asset" to the Reaver? The Reaver knows that Mafia1 need to kill confirmed town to win the game, so my guess is that the Reaver have recruited someone not confirmed due to this reason.

I expected Goldie to have thought this better through if was the real Doc but apparently not. It looks like he was too stressed producing this Doctor claim, that looks like a fake to me now.

The story of first saving Teacon and then switching to Tom after my shot seems fabricated. And as Xorx says, why would the real doctor say that he saved Tom last night? Which leads to that he cannot save Tom next night.

Please review this in light of Jamiets reasoning for saving xorxes.

[BunnyGo]

@Bunny Why should X know doc?

Forgot about RB mechanics

[teacon7]

I wonder why Goldfinger picked the Doctor as the role he chose to fakeclaim. If I had to come up with a fakeclaim, Doctor certianly isn't the role I would have picked.

I think the mafia chose the roles with backups to fake claim since those are the roles they would want to wait to NK, since NKing them produces more town clears. The downside for them is that if they successfully win a CC battle, they also produce a new town clear.

I doubt it was so calculated. Doctor was the easy choice for either scum!Jamie or scum!goldie given the circumstances. And Super was the only one Kalel had a fighting chance against.

If Super is scum though, the choice is a bit weird.

They couldn't coordinate when claiming PR or not... that happened before their QT opened. Which roles they pick could be somewhat coordinated, though I'm guessing morale was low in the QT.
fakeclaiming companion makes sense because the customs officer could spoof verification for it.
fakeclaiming doctor could allow for scum in the VT pool to eventually fakeclaim backup doc.

[teacon7]

@xorxes
You write:
Lynching Jamiet is also not a terrible option, because depriving Mafia of their roleblocker would be a great advantage. We also get a replacement Doctor if we mislynch.
If Jamie is the rollblocker, you would have been blocked. Were you?

iirc kitsune said that he wouldn't get a message about it.

[BunnyGo]

Great way to cause a tie.

It will not be a tie, if Xorx's wagon is one behind or equal and he has his +2 powers intact.

We could even have Jamie as the first wagon and Xorx voting for the second wagon. If Xorx's wagon doesn't win, he has been reavered and then we will kill Jamie (the one that could have revered Xorx). Great isn't it?

Oh sure. Let scum shift at last second to screw is over. I think you must be role playing Jayne.

[Chaqa]

Confirmed PR
xorxes (Captain)
peterlund (Hero of Mudtown)
Tom Bombadil (First Mate)
teacon (Twin)
darg (Watcher)
damo (Reader)
BunnyGo (Pilot)

Claimed PR
Jamie (Doctor)
Goldfinger (Doctor)
Kalel (Companion)
ItsHosuke (Companion)

Claimed VT
Chaqa
emc
bozo
Temasek
ND
Foxcastle

Dead
FlaviusAetius (VT)
rdrivera2005 (Twin)

Scum
worcej (claims Bounty Hunter)
-----------------------------------------------------
For my notes / memory:
Captain - +2 votes
First Mate - Bodyguard protector (night+day)
Pilot - 2-shot target Commuter (no thread informing), 2 phase cooldown
Mudtown - currently expended. Has 1-shot if lynched.
Companion - town RB (night+day)
Doctor - non-sequential doctor. you+target informed. 50% Reaver prevention
Reader - scan target, EoN/D result. Masked return VT.
Watcher - EoN see who visited
Twin - named townie at this point

Agent - performs NK currently. Scans VT
Customs - mafia RB
Investigator - mafia Reader
-----------------------------------------------------
*For now* ignoring converted Reavers, we know that the 3 scum + RP + BH are within the groupings:
1 in {Jamiet/goldie}
1 in {Kalel/Hosuke}
1 is worcej
2 in {Chaqa/emc/bozo/Tem/ND/Fox}

We need to lynch all of these, unless any get counter-sniped by the other mafia teams, which seems unlikely if mafia are targeting PRs. So, given this, we need to continuously have a lynch target in mind. The good thing is we have a lot of PRs that can narrow this down.

If damo scans Jamiet, three possible outcomes:
1. Jamiet is Doctor. In this case, we know that Goldie is scum, and xorxes is not a Reaver. This means on Day 3, we lynch Goldie, and then see what his flip is to inform future decisions.

2. Jamiet is Reaver Prime. In this case, we know xorxes is now a Reaver, and Goldie is the Doctor. This means on Day 3, we lynch Jamiet. Day 4, we have the option to then lynch xorxes or someone else depending on new information.

3. Jamiet is Customs or Investigator. In this case, we lynch Jamiet.

So, Jam/Goldie is Day 3 lynch. In the meantime, that night, we can hopefully have Dargo catch another scum, while also protecting strategically with our Commute + First Mate + Doctor, assuming none of them has been Reaver'd.

Thinking through it too much beyond this right now is kinda premature. We can't have a very solid idea about future lynches without knowing:
1. worcej's really BH or not
2. Jamiet's scan result

So, I think we have a clear path, for now.

The Agent (and one other scum) is in the VT pool. Companion should pick someone in there to RB. This will give a 1/3 chance of roleblocking scum, and a 1/6 chance of stopping the M1 nightkill outright. Combine with our multiple protections, and if we get lucky, we can have a really good phase.

Damo - make sure you post your scan result before EoN so if you get Reave'd, we don't get bad info. You'll have to weigh whether to inform us immediately so we can come up with plans, or to wait until end of night so Reavers don't have a good plan.