MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[BunnyGo]

Atm
Still sleep deprived
I think Jamie is reaver.
He visited xorxes.
The angry interaction in the postings was drama.
##vote jamie

So... xorxes is a Reaver now, potentially?

We can postpone this a night. I’d xorxes has his vote, Jamiet and xorxes are clear and we lynch gold. If not, both are Reavers.

Or xorxes was RB and Jamie is blocker.

[BunnyGo]

Finding the Reaver is not the most important thing at this stage. There's no reason to think worcej is more likely the Reaver than any other scum role. Not wasting lynches is more important than finding the Reaver. Lynching BH is a waste of a lynch. If we lynch Kalel for example, and he ends up being a BH target, we get confirmation that worcej is lying and then we can lynch him without wasting a lynch. Reducing the number of unknowns is the most important thing now.

We do not know if worcej is the BH, so lynching him does eliminate an unknown. Also, lynching the wrong Companion claim would be a wasted lynch. Hopefully the ItsHosuke RB claim will help resolve the Companion claims.

Worcej is not an unknown, he is known scum and he provided info that would support or disprove his BH claim. I'm surprised you want to lynch him now.

Is the real BH going to counterclaim so we lynch him? He could be reaver and playing to win strategy to survive another night.

[BunnyGo]

@xorxes
You write:
Lynching Jamiet is also not a terrible option, because depriving Mafia of their roleblocker would be a great advantage. We also get a replacement Doctor if we mislynch.
If Jamie is the rollblocker, you would have been blocked. Were you?

We need to hear who Hosuke roleblocked before discussing that.

Do we not already know that I'm the only person who visited you?

You know I didn't Roleblock you.

Yes. Xorxes not knowing who the doctor is for sure is suspicious (unless you’re scum). But xorxes has been making low info anti-town plays all game.

[bozotheclown]

Assuming a Reaver was successfully recruited N1, we currently have 12 town, 5 mafia, and the BH.

Best case lynches, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-1-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-1-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-0-3-1)
N4: NK successful (7-0-3-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (7-0-2-1)
N5: NK successful (6-0-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (6-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (5-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (5-0-0-1)

No mislynches but worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 2 (10-2-2-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-2-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-1-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (6-1-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (6-1-1-1)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-1-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 1 (4-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (3-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (3-0-0-1)

Mislynch today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: mislynch (11-3-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (9-3-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (9-2-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (7-2-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (7-2-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (5-2-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (5-1-2-1)
N5: NKs successful (3-1-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (3-1-1-1)
N6: NKs successful (1-1-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (1-0-1-1)
N7: NK successful (0-0-1-1)

Lynch BH today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch BH (12-3-2-0)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-3-3-0)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-2-3-0)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-3-0)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (8-2-2-0)
N4: NKs successful (6-2-2-0)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (6-1-2-0)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-2-0)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (4-1-1-0)
N6: NKs successful (2-1-1-0)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (2-0-1-0)
N7: NK successful (1-0-1-0)

Bottom line: Mislynching or lynching the BH today could result in a town loss even if we have no more mislynches if things go poorly. However, considering the amount of time it will take to eliminate the mafia, it will likely become necessary to lynch the BH at some point to keep him from winning.

[peterlund]

As GM has confirmed that the "+C" will be there in the final VC regardless if Xorxes has been reavered or not, we must make sure that the +2 effect is visible. Half town must be voting for what Xorxes is not voting for. Xorx needs to be on the second largest wagon and only if he still has the +2 power his wagon wins.

Great way to cause a tie.

It will not be a tie, if Xorx's wagon is one behind or equal and he has his +2 powers intact.

[Chaqa]

I think we should continue to lynch Worcej today.

Of the Goldie/Jamie claim, I would lynch Jamiet, based mostly on a gut read of Jamiet's behavior.

Of the Super/Kalel claim, I would lynch Kalel. Given that Super was new, I doubt he would have gone for a CC when he could have hidden in the VTs.

Chaqa looks like he's flailing around trying to save somebody.

?? who? or you just throwing shade bc youre scum?

Just in my catchup from yesterday evening through this morning it looked to me like you were jumping around to a lot of different plans, a lot of which centered on lynching other PRs or VT claimants and not actually processing CC's or the claimed BH.

This is pretty inaccurate to the time when I was posting. The two CC fights hadn't happened yet when I was coming up with my peter/worcej plans. Given the information we've since gathered, it doesn't make sense to do anything but lynching worcej or {Kalel/Super}.

[damo666]

@Bunny Why should X know doc?

[BunnyGo]

##callGM - If the captain has been turned into a reaver, does the player still get a +c in the VC, even if he's now a reaver? Can we have an official VC please?

1. The player will still receive a +C in the VC with the special votes (if any) taking effect to the order of wagons at EOD.

A Reaver’d captain doesn’t lose his votes???

He does. But we only see +C. We find out what C is worth at EOD ##CALL GM is that correct? You’ll tell all of us the numerical value of C at EOD?

[Chaqa]

I think we should continue to lynch Worcej today.

Of the Goldie/Jamie claim, I would lynch Jamiet, based mostly on a gut read of Jamiet's behavior.

Of the Super/Kalel claim, I would lynch Kalel. Given that Super was new, I doubt he would have gone for a CC when he could have hidden in the VTs.

Chaqa looks like he's flailing around trying to save somebody.

?? who? or you just throwing shade bc youre scum?

Also, speaking of throwing shade for no good reason, is this just OMGUS?

Eh, OMGUS would imply I wasn't scum reading you before this all started. You've been on my VT-Scum list since peter got confirmed as Vig.

[BunnyGo]

We need to hear who Hosuke roleblocked before discussing that.

Do we not already know that I'm the only person who visited you?

You know I didn't Roleblock you.

Roleblock doesn't work like that this game.

Ah...so we should leave Jamie/Gold till tomorrow.

[BunnyGo]

Wondering...

Reavers likely would have tried to hit xorxes, Tom, or peter.

Chaqa looks like, scum wanting town to lynch the town confirmed so they do not need to use their NK actions for this.

So shoot me with your gun.

Oh wait. You wasted it on Tom.

Zing!

[Chaqa]

Atm
Still sleep deprived
I think Jamie is reaver.
He visited xorxes.
The angry interaction in the postings was drama.
##vote jamie

So... xorxes is a Reaver now, potentially?

We can postpone this a night. I’d xorxes has his vote, Jamiet and xorxes are clear and we lynch gold. If not, both are Reavers.

Or xorxes was RB and Jamie is blocker.

Yeah, I've since (I think) caught up to all the claims and possibilities.

Seems scanning Jamiet is the solution to finding out about him, xorx, and goldie Hawn.

[peterlund]

As GM has confirmed that the "+C" will be there in the final VC regardless if Xorxes has been reavered or not, we must make sure that the +2 effect is visible. Half town must be voting for what Xorxes is not voting for. Xorx needs to be on the second largest wagon and only if he still has the +2 power his wagon wins.

Great way to cause a tie.

It will not be a tie, if Xorx's wagon is one behind or equal and he has his +2 powers intact.

We could even have Jamie as the first wagon and Xorx voting for the second wagon. If Xorx's wagon doesn't win, he has been reavered and then we will kill Jamie (the one that could have revered Xorx). Great isn't it?

[BunnyGo]

I think it's more likely that worcej is reaver than kalel/hosuke.

I think Bozo is leading scum candidate among the VT.

Finding the Reaver is not the most important thing at this stage. There's no reason to think worcej is more likely the Reaver than any other scum role. Not wasting lynches is more important than finding the Reaver. Lynching BH is a waste of a lynch. If we lynch Kalel for example, and he ends up being a BH target, we get confirmation that worcej is lying and then we can lynch him without wasting a lynch. Reducing the number of unknowns is the most important thing now.

Makes me wonder ifReaver!worcej infected xorxes and he’s using Jamie as a scapegoat.

Watcher would have mentioned

[teacon7]

Before ItHo comes out with what pile of crud Super left them with... did anyone get Roleblocked? Or would the team prefer ItHo say first?

@Kalel - help me out here. You just claimed that you were the companion. This CC's Superstition/Itshosuke's claim. Then you just told us you didn't get an order in at night.

How would anyone have "gotten roleblocked" in the first place? Am I missing something here?

More than '1 roleblocker

Hm. That's actually a good point.
Sorry @kalel for inferring too much from that. I shouldn't play mafia when tired.

fwiw, I see this as a good reason we should find out who jamie is.

1/3 chance jamie is doc: he didn't roleblock xorx, xorx gets extra votes
1/3 chance jamie is mafia customs: he did roleblock xorxes, xorx gets no extra votes
1/3 chance jamie is reaver prime: he didn't rb xorxes, but xorx still doesn't get extra votes.

based on that closed-math system, that makes it 2:1 odds that xorxes doesn't have extra votes today. Which means we won't be able to tell from the final VC whether he's a reaver, or just roleblocked.

I'm still catching up on the thread from yesterday, but rn it seems like ##vote jamie is the best option.

[Chaqa]

Assuming a Reaver was successfully recruited N1, we currently have 12 town, 5 mafia, and the BH.

Best case lynches, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-1-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-1-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-0-3-1)
N4: NK successful (7-0-3-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (7-0-2-1)
N5: NK successful (6-0-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (6-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (5-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (5-0-0-1)

No mislynches but worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 2 (10-2-2-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-2-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-1-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (6-1-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (6-1-1-1)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-1-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 1 (4-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (3-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (3-0-0-1)

Mislynch today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: mislynch (11-3-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (9-3-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (9-2-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (7-2-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (7-2-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (5-2-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (5-1-2-1)
N5: NKs successful (3-1-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (3-1-1-1)
N6: NKs successful (1-1-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (1-0-1-1)
N7: NK successful (0-0-1-1)

Lynch BH today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch BH (12-3-2-0)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-3-3-0)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-2-3-0)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-3-0)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (8-2-2-0)
N4: NKs successful (6-2-2-0)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (6-1-2-0)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-2-0)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (4-1-1-0)
N6: NKs successful (2-1-1-0)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (2-0-1-0)
N7: NK successful (1-0-1-0)

Bottom line: Mislynching or lynching the BH today could result in a town loss even if we have no more mislynches if things go poorly. However, considering the amount of time it will take to eliminate the mafia, it will likely become necessary to lynch the BH at some point to keep him from winning.

This assumes mafia never hit each other, though, correct? So, I think if our worst case has us barely losing, we should be relatively safe taking the day to eliminate worcej.

[Chaqa]

As GM has confirmed that the "+C" will be there in the final VC regardless if Xorxes has been reavered or not, we must make sure that the +2 effect is visible. Half town must be voting for what Xorxes is not voting for. Xorx needs to be on the second largest wagon and only if he still has the +2 power his wagon wins.

Great way to cause a tie.

It will not be a tie, if Xorx's wagon is one behind or equal and he has his +2 powers intact.

All it takes is one scum (who we have a few who are nearly caught) sacrificing themselves to cause a tie or something.

There's no reason to risk it. the EoD vote count numbers will let us know if xorx is good or not.

[Chaqa]

1. The player will still receive a +C in the VC with the special votes (if any) taking effect to the order of wagons at EOD.

A Reaver’d captain doesn’t lose his votes???

He does. But we only see +C. We find out what C is worth at EOD ##CALL GM is that correct? You’ll tell all of us the numerical value of C at EOD?

I went back and looked and the EoD vote count just said 9+C, when there were 9 people including xorxes on the Flavius wagon...

Did we mis that back then? Is Kit really know making the final number match? This is so unusual in so many ways from every mafia game I've ever played...

[Temasek22]

Assuming a Reaver was successfully recruited N1, we currently have 12 town, 5 mafia, and the BH.

Best case lynches, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-1-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-1-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-0-3-1)
N4: NK successful (7-0-3-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (7-0-2-1)
N5: NK successful (6-0-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (6-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (5-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (5-0-0-1)

No mislynches but worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch a mafia 1 (12-2-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-2-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 2 (10-2-2-1)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-2-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 1 (8-1-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (6-1-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 2 (6-1-1-1)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-1-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 1 (4-0-1-1)
N6: NK successful (3-0-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 2 (3-0-0-1)

Mislynch today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: mislynch (11-3-2-1)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (9-3-3-1)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (9-2-3-1)
N3: NKs successful (7-2-3-1)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (7-2-2-1)
N4: NKs successful (5-2-2-1)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (5-1-2-1)
N5: NKs successful (3-1-2-1)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (3-1-1-1)
N6: NKs successful (1-1-1-1)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (1-0-1-1)
N7: NK successful (0-0-1-1)

Lynch BH today, worse case mafia 1 vs. mafia 2 distribution, worse case NKs:
D2: lynch BH (12-3-2-0)
N2: NK and Reaver recruit successful (10-3-3-0)
D3: lynch a mafia 1 (10-2-3-0)
N3: NKs successful (8-2-3-0)
D4: lynch a mafia 2 (8-2-2-0)
N4: NKs successful (6-2-2-0)
D5: lynch a mafia 1 (6-1-2-0)
N5: NKs successful (4-1-2-0)
D6: lynch a mafia 2 (4-1-1-0)
N6: NKs successful (2-1-1-0)
D7: lynch a mafia 1 (2-0-1-0)
N7: NK successful (1-0-1-0)

Bottom line: Mislynching or lynching the BH today could result in a town loss even if we have no more mislynches if things go poorly. However, considering the amount of time it will take to eliminate the mafia, it will likely become necessary to lynch the BH at some point to keep him from winning.

This assumes mafia never hit each other, though, correct? So, I think if our worst case has us barely losing, we should be relatively safe taking the day to eliminate worcej.

There's the vig shots too

[Chaqa]

Great way to cause a tie.

It will not be a tie, if Xorx's wagon is one behind or equal and he has his +2 powers intact.

We could even have Jamie as the first wagon and Xorx voting for the second wagon. If Xorx's wagon doesn't win, he has been reavered and then we will kill Jamie (the one that could have revered Xorx). Great isn't it?

We really shouldn't be lynching Jamiet today. Damo can scan him and reveal three players current status. We should just lynch worcej today and remove one known threat. We need to lynch (up to) seven scum, let's get one out of the way.