MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[teacon7]

Xorxes, I think your logic is flawed as we’ve had bolt PR claims before like me as Jekyll last game that weren’t true. I don’t doubt you, but your benefit to confirming your claim is astronomical here.

I'm obviously going to confirm my claim, but when I think it's best. People's reactions to someone not fully clear are much more interesting than people's reactions to a mechanical clear. Nobody will interact with me once I'm mechanically clear, it's more boring.

[xorxes]

For a bit further explanation on my Monty Hall thing, see here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

In our terms, from an objective observer's view, there is a 5/20 chance that any player is scum. If an all-knowing GM were to reveal that 10 players were not scum, the immediate thought is that any remaining player is now at a 50/50 chance to be scum, but in the broader sense, it's really a 75% in our case, as the "masked" PRs have not actually been revealed.

But by "opening" those doors with Dargo's masked claim idea, we have a VERY good chance to hit scum.

I may be slightly misapplying the Monty Hall problem here, but it makes sense to me.

"Slightly" may be an understatement

The correct analogy would be if you first decide who you want to lynch, then the GM reveals 10 town, and then they ask you if you want to switch to one of the remaining players. In that case, switching would increase your chances.

But with the massclaim here our chances will be 50% for the Vig (only increased by accurate reads). Then 5/9 for the lynch (or 4/9 but with a second shot for the Vig).

Of the 10 VT claims, Vig shoots one, we lynch one, Cop reads one. So even in worst case scenario we go into D2 with 5 scum in 7 people.

[e.m.c^42]

Eh, might as well throw in one

I claim not!PR

What is the difference between "not PR" and "not!PR" ?

Hm, it should be more accurately notpr!EMC

[rdrivera2005]

If Xorxes confirms himself as captain I am claiming.

[Jamiet99uk]

Eh, might as well throw in one

I claim not!PR

What is the difference between "not PR" and "not!PR" ?

Hm, it should be more accurately notpr!EMC

Please explain your use of this notation.

[e.m.c^42]

Eh, might as well throw in one

I claim not!PR

What is the difference between "not PR" and "not!PR" ?

Hm, it should be more accurately notpr!EMC

Anyways, I have my exclamation quota to reach. But in this case it is used as "trait!Character" or "adjective!Noun"

[teacon7]

What if the other pr's just claimed pr... Not which one? Making it still somewhat a guess thing for the baddies?

I like this.

It only works if all PR participate though. Otherwise, we could end up with scum fake-claiming PR. Then we'd have to specify who was claiming what, so we could find and adjudicate the CC's. Either they commit to getting more info by fighting out a CC, or they don't fakeclaim at all.

We can just operate on the assumption all PR claims are true, with the caveat anyone claiming PR and retracting later is insta-lynched. This should prevent scum from false claims that cannot be counterclaimed later.

We should also decide who among the non-PR claims we're lynching at least an hour ahead of time, to give them time to claim specifically if they had been witholding, and allow for a "masked" PR claimant to counterclaim then.

There's a difference between mechanically cleared and PR-claimant, but... yeah, I can roll with that.

[BunnyGo]

From a high level - there's 20 players, right? If all 10 of our knowing PRs claimed PR, we'd immediately drop the lynch pool to 10, giving us 50/50 odds. Now, we would also hopefully have *VERY* rough townreads on at least one or two people, so let's say we eliminate one person on feelings alone.

Nine people. Have the vigilante shoot one. Eight people. Lynch one.

This is basically similar to the Monty Hall problem - the probability of someone being scum (defined here as non-town) is 5/20. However, when we factor in that we're excluding the 10 PRs, it really becomes 15/20 (not 5/10, as some would say, as you can count the "opened" doors, similar to Monty Hall).

That's a 75% chance to hit scum on the vig shot. Followed by a 14/19 or 15/19 for the lynch, which is either 73.7%, or 79%. I like those odds a whole fucking lot.

Still catching up, still hating massclaim, still don’t enjoy assclaim but hey whatever gets your chipotle going.

I did want to say, this is crucially quite different than Monty hall. The probabilist in new couldn’t let that statement slide.

[e.m.c^42]

What is the difference between "not PR" and "not!PR" ?

Hm, it should be more accurately notpr!EMC

Anyways, I have my exclamation quota to reach. But in this case it is used as "trait!Character" or "adjective!Noun"

It's a common enough usage 'in fandom', and it derives from c/c++ coding convention

I gotta type up something useful, I feel very spammy lol

[Jamiet99uk]

What is the difference between "not PR" and "not!PR" ?

Hm, it should be more accurately notpr!EMC

Anyways, I have my exclamation quota to reach. But in this case it is used as "trait!Character" or "adjective!Noun"

I do not understand any of this. What is the function of the exclamation marks in these statements?

Please could you explain it using normal people language? I only have two Masters' degrees and neither of them is in mathematics or formal logic or whatever you are using.

[BunnyGo]

For a bit further explanation on my Monty Hall thing, see here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

In our terms, from an objective observer's view, there is a 5/20 chance that any player is scum. If an all-knowing GM were to reveal that 10 players were not scum, the immediate thought is that any remaining player is now at a 50/50 chance to be scum, but in the broader sense, it's really a 75% in our case, as the "masked" PRs have not actually been revealed.

But by "opening" those doors with Dargo's masked claim idea, we have a VERY good chance to hit scum.

I may be slightly misapplying the Monty Hall problem here, but it makes sense to me.

More than slightly. On phone or I’d derail the game with a discourse on hypotheses and observation

[Jamiet99uk]

Hm, it should be more accurately notpr!EMC

Anyways, I have my exclamation quota to reach. But in this case it is used as "trait!Character" or "adjective!Noun"

It's a common enough usage 'in fandom', and it derives from c/c++ coding convention

I gotta type up something useful, I feel very spammy lol

I am not a computer programmer and I don't read slash fiction.

Can you explain it in a normal way?

[e.m.c^42]

But most of recent discussion seems to be just mechs of massclaiming

Lol where is bozo?

[xorxes]

Let's not do a mutually reinforcing sense of enmity again. please.

It's asymmetrical this time, I made an uncontested claim.

I am townreading you rn, and actively agreeing with your massclaim proposal. I want to do the math on the idea as best I can, because I like seeing the ideas laid out in excruciating detail.

That's perfectly fine. It's when you say things like "nobody should consider claiming until he is mechanically clear" that you rub me the wrong way. I'm not even sure I want to reveal D1 or N1 yet (or at some other point). The massclaim does not require anyone to prove their claims, just making them. It has zero to do with whether I get GM-revealed or not.

In my thinking there is a categorical difference between "uncontested claimant" and "gm-confirmed" / "mechanical clear." They're close, but not the same thing. That's why I asked about activating the captain power: it brings a degree of certainty fitting for the extent of the massclaim proposal.

You will have to deal with the uncertainty, because I don't want people to decide based on "sheep the clear".

If Doc doesn't claim PR for example, they risk the Reader wasting their read on them. Or the companion roleblocking them, wasting both their powers.

I doubt it'd be a total waste if the reader read an cleared the doc as a town - we still get the clear from it, and scum would have to decide if htey wanted to kill a clear, or a potential PR. We would have to be careful about vigshot though. I like the dargo plan best so far.

It is basically a waste because we don't reduce the scumpool when we could have done so, and we clear someone that could simply clear themselves by claiming. A total waste.

[Chaqa]

What is the difference between "not PR" and "not!PR" ?

Hm, it should be more accurately notpr!EMC

Anyways, I have my exclamation quota to reach. But in this case it is used as "trait!Character" or "adjective!Noun"

Is this quote your Reaver posting rule, EMC?

[e.m.c^42]

Anyways, I have my exclamation quota to reach. But in this case it is used as "trait!Character" or "adjective!Noun"

;p

[Chaqa]

From a high level - there's 20 players, right? If all 10 of our knowing PRs claimed PR, we'd immediately drop the lynch pool to 10, giving us 50/50 odds. Now, we would also hopefully have *VERY* rough townreads on at least one or two people, so let's say we eliminate one person on feelings alone.

Nine people. Have the vigilante shoot one. Eight people. Lynch one.

This is basically similar to the Monty Hall problem - the probability of someone being scum (defined here as non-town) is 5/20. However, when we factor in that we're excluding the 10 PRs, it really becomes 15/20 (not 5/10, as some would say, as you can count the "opened" doors, similar to Monty Hall).

That's a 75% chance to hit scum on the vig shot. Followed by a 14/19 or 15/19 for the lynch, which is either 73.7%, or 79%. I like those odds a whole fucking lot.

Still catching up, still hating massclaim, still don’t enjoy assclaim but hey whatever gets your chipotle going.

I did want to say, this is crucially quite different than Monty hall. The probabilist in new couldn’t let that statement slide.

Well, Statistics is the only math course I didn't get an A in, so... it's quite likely I'm misapplying this lol

[teacon7]

dargo, damo and bozo (all end in 'o') seem content with a single post. With bozo's post being the most odd. Not Chinese? Not Brazilian? Is it Filipino? I couldn't translate it.

Lojban.

I assume it was directed at me, since I'm the only Lojbanist here as far as I know.

Not sure what he meant to say, it wasn't quite grammatical, but he seemed to be going for "male VT" which seems to be a reference to last game. But it was in the form of a question, so I don't think he meant to claim VT, maybe asking me if I was a VT? I don't know.

He gets a few townie points for using Lojban though.

Google ends up giving something along the lines of "true or false, y'all simple town boys?"

I found a better dictionary:
https://la-lojban.github.io/sutysisku/en/index.html#

It does seem like "sampu" was supposed to mean "vanilla." Thus he's asking if we're all VT's.

Oddly enough, the logical language constructed to have no miscommunication is ... vague. Fascinating, Captain. ::spock eyebrow::

[Chaqa]

Hm, it should be more accurately notpr!EMC

Anyways, I have my exclamation quota to reach. But in this case it is used as "trait!Character" or "adjective!Noun"

It's a common enough usage 'in fandom', and it derives from c/c++ coding convention

I gotta type up something useful, I feel very spammy lol

As a software engineer... I have never heard of such a thing, and I have a C++ background.

[goldfinger0303]

From a high level - there's 20 players, right? If all 10 of our knowing PRs claimed PR, we'd immediately drop the lynch pool to 10, giving us 50/50 odds. Now, we would also hopefully have *VERY* rough townreads on at least one or two people, so let's say we eliminate one person on feelings alone.

Nine people. Have the vigilante shoot one. Eight people. Lynch one.

This is basically similar to the Monty Hall problem - the probability of someone being scum (defined here as non-town) is 5/20. However, when we factor in that we're excluding the 10 PRs, it really becomes 15/20 (not 5/10, as some would say, as you can count the "opened" doors, similar to Monty Hall).

That's a 75% chance to hit scum on the vig shot. Followed by a 14/19 or 15/19 for the lynch, which is either 73.7%, or 79%. I like those odds a whole fucking lot.

Chaqa, that's not how Monty Hall works. You need to pick scum *before* the PR reveal for that analogy to work. So we should have our lunch target and vig shot lined up before, if you want those percentages to be accurate.

The possibility of a counterclaim really just tears your scenario to shreds. (Although it has other benefits)