MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

I assumed you were VT because: you asked Chaqa what his role was after I claimed, thus you were seemingly in favor of the massclaim. You did not claim anything yourself, which suggested you had nothing to claim.

Ah, I see.

I called on Chaqa to claim because he had been the other person advocating (in his own hedgy way) for a massclaim. So I wanted him to put his money where his mouth was, so to speak. I was waiting to see if he suddenly used his hedging to fall back and refuse to claim.

I wasn't aware having conflicted ideas on a subject was considered hedging. Is it hedging if you've got a null read on someone because they've done scummy things and towny things?

I thought I explained why I liked and disliked the idea at the same time pretty well. In the end, it's a good way to make sure town wins this game, so i'm onboard.

[teacon7]

What if the other pr's just claimed pr... Not which one? Making it still somewhat a guess thing for the baddies?

I like this.

It only works if all PR participate though. Otherwise, we could end up with scum fake-claiming PR. Then we'd have to specify who was claiming what, so we could find and adjudicate the CC's. Either they commit to getting more info by fighting out a CC, or they don't fakeclaim at all.

[teacon7]

Why do people keep perpetuating this silly notion that massclaims "ruin" a game? If the massclaim solves a game completely, then the game was broken to begin with, it started broken, it can't be ruined. Otherwise, a massclaim is just one more tool to help us solve the game, just like copscans, docsaves, GM reveals, etc.

We're not guaranteed to win with a massclaim, so the game is not broken. The only question here is whether a massclaim is beneficial to town or not at this stage, and my impression is that it is, so I will start it when I finish catching up, unless I read something in the meanwhile that makes me change my mind.

Highlighting that one sentence because we need to be better about ensuring these type of situations won't happen. As a community, we focus a lot more on mechanics than actually hunting and this won't be fixed until the mechanics elements of discussion during the game is eliminated

I mean... the setup could be more open than we realize...? Is there something we missed?

[xorxes]

@Xorxes: Now you have hardclaimed the Captain, and only Chaqa has followed you in massclaiming.

What do you think of this development?

Did you claim too early? Why did you not wait for more support?

I was going to claim my role regardless of any support for the massclaim. Claiming it protects me from recruiting by the Reavers, and I don't think it makes me more of a NK candidate than not claiming it.

[Chaqa]

From a high level - there's 20 players, right? If all 10 of our knowing PRs claimed PR, we'd immediately drop the lynch pool to 10, giving us 50/50 odds. Now, we would also hopefully have *VERY* rough townreads on at least one or two people, so let's say we eliminate one person on feelings alone.

Nine people. Have the vigilante shoot one. Eight people. Lynch one.

This is basically similar to the Monty Hall problem - the probability of someone being scum (defined here as non-town) is 5/20. However, when we factor in that we're excluding the 10 PRs, it really becomes 15/20 (not 5/10, as some would say, as you can count the "opened" doors, similar to Monty Hall).

That's a 75% chance to hit scum on the vig shot. Followed by a 14/19 or 15/19 for the lynch, which is either 73.7%, or 79%. I like those odds a whole fucking lot.

[Chaqa]

What if the other pr's just claimed pr... Not which one? Making it still somewhat a guess thing for the baddies?

I like this.

It only works if all PR participate though. Otherwise, we could end up with scum fake-claiming PR. Then we'd have to specify who was claiming what, so we could find and adjudicate the CC's. Either they commit to getting more info by fighting out a CC, or they don't fakeclaim at all.

We can just operate on the assumption all PR claims are true, with the caveat anyone claiming PR and retracting later is insta-lynched. This should prevent scum from false claims that cannot be counterclaimed later.

We should also decide who among the non-PR claims we're lynching at least an hour ahead of time, to give them time to claim specifically if they had been witholding, and allow for a "masked" PR claimant to counterclaim then.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Xorxes: Now you have hardclaimed the Captain, and only Chaqa has followed you in massclaiming.

What do you think of this development?

Did you claim too early? Why did you not wait for more support?

I was going to claim my role regardless of any support for the massclaim. Claiming it protects me from recruiting by the Reavers, and I don't think it makes me more of a NK candidate than not claiming it.

If you planned to out your role regardless of whether a massclaim happened, were you really a massclaim advocate at all, or did you just want a reason to claim as loudly and quickly as possible....? HHhhhhmmmmmmm.

[Chaqa]

For a bit further explanation on my Monty Hall thing, see here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

In our terms, from an objective observer's view, there is a 5/20 chance that any player is scum. If an all-knowing GM were to reveal that 10 players were not scum, the immediate thought is that any remaining player is now at a 50/50 chance to be scum, but in the broader sense, it's really a 75% in our case, as the "masked" PRs have not actually been revealed.

But by "opening" those doors with Dargo's masked claim idea, we have a VERY good chance to hit scum.

I may be slightly misapplying the Monty Hall problem here, but it makes sense to me.

[Chaqa]

@Xorxes: Now you have hardclaimed the Captain, and only Chaqa has followed you in massclaiming.

What do you think of this development?

Did you claim too early? Why did you not wait for more support?

I was going to claim my role regardless of any support for the massclaim. Claiming it protects me from recruiting by the Reavers, and I don't think it makes me more of a NK candidate than not claiming it.

If you planned to out your role regardless of whether a massclaim happened, were you really a massclaim advocate at all, or did you just want a reason to claim as loudly and quickly as possible....? HHhhhhmmmmmmm.

Isn't this suspicion a bit of a moot point so long as he confirms himself?

Which I again stress, he should, unless he's waiting for others to chime in.

[Jamiet99uk]

You're right Chaqa.

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE VECNA

He's been online.

[xorxes]

@Xorxes: Now you have hardclaimed the Captain, and only Chaqa has followed you in massclaiming.

What do you think of this development?

Did you claim too early? Why did you not wait for more support?

I was going to claim my role regardless of any support for the massclaim. Claiming it protects me from recruiting by the Reavers, and I don't think it makes me more of a NK candidate than not claiming it.

If you planned to out your role regardless of whether a massclaim happened, were you really a massclaim advocate at all, or did you just want a reason to claim as loudly and quickly as possible....? HHhhhhmmmmmmm.

Why would I want to lie about wanting a massclaim?

Jamiet, peterlund and teacon are the people with the weirdest reactions to my claim. They can't help but see it as credible (obviously), but they try all sorts of weird ways to keep shading me

[Chaqa]

I just actually read through a few more role PMs, and the Vigilante in this setup is insanely powerful. A repeatable shot on success, and a vengeful ability regardless of whether or not they've shot anyone? Highly recommend the vigilante shoots today or tonight following massclaim, and then outs themselves at some point so we can use their lynch as an additional town-directed kill.

I'm thinking Day 2 or 3 for this, if we go that route - so there's no chance that mafia can kill the Mudtown or Reavers can recruit them.

[teacon7]

I guess I'm supportive of a mass claim when the captain gets GM verified... that'll do a lot for comfort level in confirming to me that the idea comes from a town source.

As long as I'm not counterclaimed, I should be your top townread at the moment, even if not a clear, unless you can come up with a sensible explanation for why I would pull this stunt as scum of any kind, and why nobody would counterclaim me. So all the shade you're throwing my way when I should be your top townread only makes you look scummy. Surely there's other people you can investigate more fruitfully instead?

oh god not again.

How am I throwing shade your way? I'm not throwing shade your way. idk what you're doing here. Well I think that you saying "he's throwing shade" ... is you throwing shade at me. There's a difference between saying "I don't 100% agree" and "guys no one should believe him."

Let's not do a mutually reinforcing sense of enmity again. please.

I am townreading you rn, and actively agreeing with your massclaim proposal. I want to do the math on the idea as best I can, because I like seeing the ideas laid out in excruciating detail.

In my thinking there is a categorical difference between "uncontested claimant" and "gm-confirmed" / "mechanical clear." They're close, but not the same thing. That's why I asked about activating the captain power: it brings a degree of certainty fitting for the extent of the massclaim proposal.

@xorx This was your idea. Weigh in: Doc and Reader seem really important. What if they didn't participate in the claim, and only claimed if they were in danger of getting shot/lynched?

They can just claim undifferentiated PR as dargo suggested. Plenty of room to hide in there.

If Doc doesn't claim PR for example, they risk the Reader wasting their read on them. Or the companion roleblocking them, wasting both their powers.

I doubt it'd be a total waste if the reader read an cleared the doc as a town - we still get the clear from it, and scum would have to decide if htey wanted to kill a clear, or a potential PR. We would have to be careful about vigshot though. I like the dargo plan best so far.

[e.m.c^42]

I'd like to see more talking from Tom Bombadil and (gulp) Vecna.

dargo, damo and bozo (all end in 'o') seem content with a single post. With bozo's post being the most odd. Not Chinese? Not Brazilian? Is it Filipino? I couldn't translate it.

Lojban.

I assume it was directed at me, since I'm the only Lojbanist here as far as I know.

Not sure what he meant to say, it wasn't quite grammatical, but he seemed to be going for "male VT" which seems to be a reference to last game. But it was in the form of a question, so I don't think he meant to claim VT, maybe asking me if I was a VT? I don't know.

He gets a few townie points for using Lojban though.

Google ends up giving something along the lines of "true or false, y'all simple town boys?"

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamiet, peterlund and teacon are the people with the weirdest reactions to my claim. They can't help but see it as credible (obviously), but they try all sorts of weird ways to keep shading me

I believe your claim, I just think your behaviour is generally weird.

[e.m.c^42]

Oh fun, we're poking vecna

[Jamiet99uk]

Also, in terms of the massclaim, I repeat my position. I will be the 7th claimant.

[e.m.c^42]

Eh, might as well throw in one

I claim not!PR

[Jamiet99uk]

Eh, might as well throw in one

I claim not!PR

What is the difference between "not PR" and "not!PR" ?