MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[Vecna]

Should we consider now lynching ND? Tomorrow night Hyde will strike.

I actually like chaqa's pages. But do these last two deaths give us any adjustments?

I think its more important to get a mafia member and hope Hyde kills someone from the other mafia team

-IF- hyde has been reading anything at all, he has no reason whatsoever not to shoot at one of the town PR's

[Vecna]

Group 1, containing 3 female VTs, the Urchin and a combination of 3 scums/jack:
e.m.c
dargorygel
Vecna
Temasek22
FlaviusAetius
KalelChase
Yavuz

Group 2, containing 2 male VTs and a combination of 2 scum/jack:
bozo
Computer_Genius
BionicMole
purplecow

Townclears:
ND (J&H)
DemRHK (Commuter)

[Vecna]

IF ANYONE is listed in group 1 but is actually an unclaimed MALE VT, you should speak up right now, because that would give us a 60% chance to lynch properly today.

It seems most likely that group 2 contains one scum from team graverobber and either the jack or scummember from team A.

I propose we lynch from group 2 today. Itll most likely give us most information since scumteam B will most likely try to save their own guy for another day. Its also most likely to remove a NK if we lynch the right person.

I think its probably best if group 1 remains unclaimed for now. Depending on whether jack is in there, he will have to take a gamble on whether to randomly knife in that group or go for RHK.

Note: If the URCHIN is hiding in group 2 (MALE VTs), stop fucking around and just claim because you fucked up. We cannot allow scum to last minute claim urchin in that group to sow massive confusion if we do hit a scum, so we will not believe you later on.

[Vecna]

Seems I switched around Cmdr likely and computer genius in group 2

[bozotheclown]

For some reason it quoted "I am male VT." when it was only supposed to be quoting xorxes post though.

In any case, this essentially confirms to me that BionicMole is either mafia or the SK. I think he is the last Moriarty mafia and he bluffed us out of lynching him at D4 EOD with his male VT claim.

How can you know its not purposecow?

I was already fairly certain that BionicMole was the missing Moriarty, and purplecow claiming male VT mean there was an extra male VT, which was explained by BionicMole being scum. purplecow is highly unlikely to be the last Moriarty, since he voted for Bob in the last minute of D1 to break the tie between Bob and Vapor. Since now CmdrLikely has also claimed male VT, there is another scum in the male VTs, so I know that either purplecow or CmdrLikely is either a member of the other mafia team or the SK.

[Vecna]

Also, id be great if the other town in group 1 seriously stepped up their play because that group is fucking hard to read.

For group 2 I still feel cow is town, Bionic is team A and either of bozo or cmdr is team 2

[bozotheclown]

Group 1, containing 3 female VTs, the Urchin and a combination of 3 scums/jack:
e.m.c
dargorygel
Vecna
Temasek22
FlaviusAetius
KalelChase
Yavuz

Group 2, containing 2 male VTs and a combination of 2 scum/jack:
bozo
Computer_Genius
BionicMole
purplecow

Townclears:
ND (J&H)
DemRHK (Commuter)

CmdrLikely, not Computer_Genius. This makes sense that the scum spread themselves out between the two groups.

[Vecna]

Id be hilarious if theres either 2 or 0 team B scum in the second group

[Vecna]

The only downside with trying to resolve the second group first is that JACK is more more likely to be in the other group.

Im inclined to say that that is a problem for scum to deal with though

[dargorygel]

@vecna
"IF ANYONE is listed in group 1 but is actually an unclaimed MALE VT, you should speak up right now, because that would give us a 60% chance to lynch properly today."
Won't this make J's job easier?

Later you tell us not to claim, which makes sense. But this paragraph seems dangerous.

[purplecow]

Group 1, containing 3 female VTs, the Urchin and a combination of 3 scums/jack:
e.m.c
dargorygel
Vecna
Temasek22
FlaviusAetius
KalelChase
Yavuz

Group 2, containing 2 male VTs and a combination of 2 scum/jack:
bozo
Computer_Genius
BionicMole
purplecow

Townclears:
ND (J&H)
DemRHK (Commuter)

Where's Tom?

IF ANYONE is listed in group 1 but is actually an unclaimed MALE VT, you should speak up right now, because that would give us a 60% chance to lynch properly today.

It seems most likely that group 2 contains one scum from team graverobber and either the jack or scummember from team A.

I propose we lynch from group 2 today. Itll most likely give us most information since scumteam B will most likely try to save their own guy for another day. Its also most likely to remove a NK if we lynch the right person.

I think its probably best if group 1 remains unclaimed for now. Depending on whether jack is in there, he will have to take a gamble on whether to randomly knife in that group or go for RHK.

Note: If the URCHIN is hiding in group 2 (MALE VTs), stop fucking around and just claim because you fucked up. We cannot allow scum to last minute claim urchin in that group to sow massive confusion if we do hit a scum, so we will not believe you later on.

What if there's a Female VT in Group 2?

[purplecow]

Also purposecow?

[dargorygel]

Bionic - [M4][B4][J5]
Bozo - [M6][B5][J5]
Cmdr - [M3][B3][J5]
yavu - [M9][B5][J5]
dargo - [M1][B2][J3]
EMC - [M1][B5][J3] - Scum if Temasek is
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J3]
purple - [M1][B1][J3]
Temasek - [M6][B6][J5] - Not Scum with Bionic
Vecna - [M5][B4][J5]
xorxes - [M1][B5][J3]

Silence is not golden. While night is a normally quiet time, those who were gone this night get a point for Jack or M. B is less likely to be quiet.

So +1 on those two numbers for tem, BM, Yavu, Cmdr, and darg

+1 on the B chart for purple for this: I'll do this for you Chaqa.
%%Vote yavu

Jack references at this point are probably hidden jack comments, +1 on Jfpr kalel for this: I'll do this for you Chaqa.
%%Vote yavu

Bozo argues with dead xorxes a lot. Not sure how to adjust this on the chaqa chart, but it feels desparate to me. Like a M seeing the noose neaqr. So +1 B. I don’t think Jack would be doing this, but I am not sure. So no adjustment anywhere else.

Flav’s reaction to chaqa’s death seems a bit weak. He explains it in post 2062, but still never goes back and says, “wow was I wrong.” I am not sure what that makes him. Unsurprised? Which only might mean that he knew chaqa was dying. COULD be either scum team or J. But it also could be that what he says in 2062 is right, and he just logically expected it. So I am not changing the number.
(Here is the post: ‘1) I said Chaqa would die if we didnt kill him so theres that
2) I am shocked by it but I dont know what you want me to do about it, I've been pushing yavu since the beginning and im happy Chaqa saw that too, so lets lynch him”)

Bozo pushes a lot on BM. Which MIGHT be VT hunting, but it more likely is B hunting M. +1 on the B chart, combined with BM’s bitter reply (“ Do you have an original idea bozo, or do you just steal all of Xorxes?” (which gives BM a +1 on the M team) This argument between them might be M vs B, right?
Vecna is very solvey. And does NOT seem to be pushing one team over the other. He wants to wear the town leader hat, and it usually fits him fine. I keep thinking he would be a good 3p here. The ONLY negative is his suggestion for Male VT to claim. This seems to advent J’s condition. But would vecna be so obvious? But for now +1 j.

SO here is the adjusted chaqa chart:

Bionic - [M6][B4][J6]
Bozo - [M6][B6][J5]
Cmdr - [M4][B3][J6]
yavu - [M10][B5][J6]
dargo - [M2][B2][J4]
EMC - [M1][B5][J3] - Scum if Temasek is
Flavius - [M5][B5][J5]
Kalel - [M2][B5][J4]
purple - [M1][B2][J3]
Temasek - [M7][B6][J6] - Not Scum with Bionic
Vecna - [M5][B4][J6]
xorxes - [M1][B5][J3]

[dargorygel]

Also purposecow?

I am sure that was an accident. (see what I did there?)

[dargorygel]

oops... here is the kalel quote about jack that struck me wrong:
"#3402 Post by KalelChase » Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:18 pm

That's cruel.
There's no way to know if Jack got Chaqa right?"

[Temasek22]

SO here is the adjusted chaqa chart:

EMC - [M1][B5][J3] - Scum if Temasek is

Temasek - [M7][B6][J6] - Not Scum with Bionic

I get the second one, but as town, I wonder what's your reasoning for thinking that emc is scum if I am?

[Temasek22]

Group 1, containing 3 female VTs, the Urchin and a combination of 3 scums/jack:
e.m.c
dargorygel
Vecna
Temasek22
FlaviusAetius
KalelChase
Yavuz

Group 2, containing 2 male VTs and a combination of 2 scum/jack:
bozo
Computer_GeniusCmdrLikely
BionicMole
purplecow

Townclears:
ND (J&H)
DemRHK (Commuter)

I like your grouping. We should probs go right after Group 2, personally I think Bionic is definitely Moriathy!scum while the other three are almost equally likely to be the 3P/Burke-Hare!scum

[dargorygel]

SO here is the adjusted chaqa chart:

EMC - [M1][B5][J3] - Scum if Temasek is

Temasek - [M7][B6][J6] - Not Scum with Bionic

I get the second one, but as town, I wonder what's your reasoning for thinking that emc is scum if I am?

I considered leaving off chaqa's notes on his chart. Because I am not sure of this. I left it on, because I am working on his shoulders. I don't fully grasp it, acutally. I'm happy to hear others' comments. No one objected since he posted, but maybe, like me, others just blinked twice and went on.

His explanation was on page 167. But here is the section in which he explains:

"EMC and Demon start the Kit wagon. I had been discussing it as well. Now, the only world where it makes sense for EMC to lead this wagon as scum is if Bionic is also scum. Due to this - ​EMC should only be lynched on suspicion of being scum if Bionic has already flipped as scum.

Temasek votes for kit but moves back to Bionic. I actually think this is a pro-town tell on Temasek, or at least neutral - it probably means he isn't Bionic's teammate, though, which is just another reason to lynch Bionic - if Bionic is scum, Tem isn't scum. If Bionic is town, EMC isn't scum."

[purplecow]

SO here is the adjusted chaqa chart:

EMC - [M1][B5][J3] - Scum if Temasek is

Temasek - [M7][B6][J6] - Not Scum with Bionic

I get the second one, but as town, I wonder what's your reasoning for thinking that emc is scum if I am?

I assumed Chaqa really meant EMC is scum if Bionic is.
I might change to Bionic but I want to hear what yavu has to say about Chaqa's posts.

[KalelChase]

oops... here is the kalel quote about jack that struck me wrong:
"#3402 Post by KalelChase » Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:18 pm

That's cruel.
There's no way to know if Jack got Chaqa right?"

I'm just scared and disappointed.... we started off so strong.