MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[BionicMole]

I'm getting caught up at work, I'll have thoughts on massclaim and other stuff later on when I'm home. I see Tom retracted his claim on purple so for now

##unvote

[FlaviusAetius]

I will be catching up now until 3 o'clock, then I have to study for a final, when I come back from that I will be working on an essay and catching up/participating

[FlaviusAetius]

He’s got this thing about him this game where he comes across as “too cool”. Like voting for people and giving no explanation. Or coming in and saying how the long phase is going to krill the game. He’s playing like one of the good players who thinks they are better than everyone. That’s not normal for him, and he isn’t good enough to do that. He’s being unnatural

Why did you give this random read on damo that literally no one asked for. And now he shows up as dead, you realize how suspicious that is? Its absoulutely ridiculous and frankly, you havent done anything in my mind to get out of that scum category, you and bosox(now yavu) in my view are connected, it seems there's more traction for the bosox(now yavu) wagon though, ##vote yavu if he pops up as scum, you are following.

This post is actually a major red flag.

How do you even remember someone saying a random thing about a random player, and then bringing it up when that guy dies two days later? Looks like part of some stupid plan.

umm I go back in the chat and respond from there, so I didnt remember, I read it

[bozotheclown]

Actually, that's wrong because Jack already knows Tom and ND are male, so it goes from 4 in 12 to 3 in 6, correct? A third to a half.

I follow your numbers based on your assumptions, but I am not sure about the certainty of your assumptions. The commuter only commutes 3 nights, so we do not know if he has any commutes left. Also, Chaqa could still be mafia or the SK, in which case there would be another female VT unaccounted for. It is also unlikely all the mafia would claim male VT to counter claim only 3 male VTs, although that could possibly lower the odds of the SK killing a female, depending on what the female mafia claimed.

With all that said, even though there are a number of variables, I think you are right that the SK's chance of hitting a female N4 if the male VTs claim is not great, although it might be better than 50/50. I would not mind taking that chance for N4, but it could still backfire if the SK does hit a female.

[FlaviusAetius]

Maybe he wants to negotiate. If he is in the Moriarty band, we join forces with them to find the other team.

What a totally weird thing to say when there were still 2 of those member

You think I was being serious? I need to polish my literary arts.

I think you know for sure well that its hard to be sarcastic over the internet. You most defiently were not being sarcastic, this is definetly not good, I dont know if your Chaqa case you made was made in good faith or not, Im going to say you were hunting and found Chaqa, the final scum of Morirarty, but you being scum isnt out of the realm of possibility either. you 100% havent been that desicive in this game, not going to call you a scum for it...but this just adds to that..

[FlaviusAetius]

Ah
I apologise from the town if I get mislynched. I'm not a good town player. The ridiculous thing is I'm more towny when I'm actually scum.
##vote Tom Bombadil

This is 100% true

Why are you going full defense on yavu? Did you not even read the case I laid out on him??

[FlaviusAetius]

He's gotten a lot better at being the non-timed xorxes as scum these days, and usually just lays semi-low as town to not get instakilled.

I can't speak to the first, when I'm scum I try my best, if you say I've gotten better that's great, I still don't enjoy it. But you're wrong about the second one. I don't do anything special to not get instakilled. It's more what others do that doesn't get me instakilled. It's kind of selfcorrecting. Becoming obvious target for kill also makes you an obvious target for saves and watches, and so it sort of compensates.

hmm, alright, I still dont like it, when anyone is not actually participating its a problem, I'd say its a bigger problem for xorxes than others

[FlaviusAetius]

Correct, that's why I am VT. And as I am VT, that's why I looked for VT PM.
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to say that, so I will ask GM to reveal a proof.

Yav, you are getting weirder, you know pretty well GMs can't give any proof.

I still don't much of a real reason to vote Cmdr or purplecow other then lurking and in this case Kit, Hosuke or even me are probably lurking even more.

Both Yavu and Chaqa are good lynch candidates, my problem with Yav wagon is who are on it, I suspect both Tom and Tem and Bozo isn't much towny too.

I reallly don't like Chaqa answer to Xorxes, it seems fabricated, but I still don't buy this Chaqa and Vecna are scum together thing. I think one of then is scum, just not sure which.

##vote Chaqa while I try to re-read both EODs that I missed.

This puts another dent in the "Chaqa = last team M" theory. Setting that wagon up to be a very reasonable contender when youre the only 2 remaining seems pretty damn unlikely, despite Rdrivera's fondness of busses.

What are you talking about? Chaqa took us off Bob and put us on Vapor, there just wasnt enough votes to switch it over. And Chaqa only went on rdrivera because Tom revealed, which everyone did. What is the dents in the theory? Because Im believing it now ##vote chaqa

[bozotheclown]

Actually, that's wrong because Jack already knows Tom and ND are male, so it goes from 4 in 12 to 3 in 6, correct? A third to a half.

I follow your numbers based on your assumptions, but I am not sure about the certainty of your assumptions. The commuter only commutes 3 nights, so we do not know if he has any commutes left. Also, Chaqa could still be mafia or the SK, in which case there would be another female VT unaccounted for. It is also unlikely all the mafia would claim male VT to counter claim only 3 male VTs, although that could possibly lower the odds of the SK killing a female, depending on what the female mafia claimed.

With all that said, even though there are a number of variables, I think you are right that the SK's chance of hitting a female N4 if the male VTs claim is not great, although it might be better than 50/50. I would not mind taking that chance for N4, but it could still backfire if the SK does hit a female.

I just realized, though, that if either purplecow or yavuzovic are female VTs, then Tom's test and/or yavuzovic "no PM VT" claim could hand the SK a female VT to kill N4 if we had the male VTs claim. For this reason I think we should not do that today.

[FlaviusAetius]

This is not the post of a scum.

LOL I don't know what the case on him is, but yeah scum retreat from the thread all the time haha. wtf?

Especially scum Rdrivera, and only popping in back at EoD if he has to save himself

Boom right there is Chaqa defending rdrivera, defended Bob too, he has defended both of them, pretty sure the only one to do so

[FlaviusAetius]

OK, but I am finding it hard to believe any Chaqa claim at this point.

Sigh.

I rolled female VT, knew that female roles were dangerous to Jack, and came up with what I thought would be a very interesting and effective strategy for me to leverage an early death into information.

I had now way of knowing ND would be strong-crumbing Sherlock and then get targeted by everyone and their mother, turning the entire thing into a clusterfuck. Then on Day 2, I wanted to see if any mafia members showed their hand, but I TBH haven't examined it too closely yet and it probably caused more confusion than insight...

Regardless of everything, I do find this plausible and believable

Yea but the point still stands, that the plan Chaqa made there is no way you think of that before he claimed, and he claimed pretty early, that means this is was an after-the-fact thing, thats what makes me believe Chaqa is scum, and then getting people to go on Vapor, and also defending rdrivera, it seems pretty clear to me what he's doing and thats defending his teammates

[FlaviusAetius]

Your logic isn't necessarily wrong, it's just that I think the benefits of talking outweighs that of silence :D

although, was wondering - what would you do in games with day chat?

we already have 48 hours worth of talking thats more than enough to discuss, 24 hour, especially with mafia being able to openly communicate not a good idea!
and we already have day chat, so what do you mean

Yes, and note that I was not here for most of the 48 hours due to inane personal reasons lol

Daychat setups are games where the mafia chat is open 24/7, parallel to the main thread - we have them now and then. Am of opinion activity is pro-town, regardless of timing for myriad of reasons. Also, have tried out setup where main thread is closed at night, which I rather dislike lmao. It kills momentum, and freshness of thought.

theres pros and cons to everything, talking at night has too many cons imo

[FlaviusAetius]

No, I don't believe it.

##Vote Tom Bombadil

spicy

He did it at the end of the day, why would you not vote for whoever he said? You've been inactive this entire game, its pretty clear what you were trying to do...nd tom wasnt even a lynch candidate so why would he even do that if he was trying to be sneaky(he wasnt) and at the time theres no way you should of thought he was being sneaky either

[FlaviusAetius]

shame it wasnt the other team, but getting rid of the strongman seems pretty great

No it’s really great it was this team if we get one more of them which is really likely due to all the NKs at night, and that gets rid of one final NK

Having both teams alive and accidentally shooting eachother seems pretty great to me

id still rather we get rid of one team fully, but theres always jack and hyde who can accidently shoot a scum

[KalelChase]

In this thread: all team b scum putting on their best acting performances

Hope youre getting something out of this Tom. Feels like a giant waste of time though and im pretty sure youre giving everyone an excuse to just votepark on town for most of the day.

I do not think it was a waste of time. I think purple is town based on this. I find it odd that RHK seemed so surprised that I wasn’t roleblocked. I do think RHK should be a wagon today

Crap Tom, I just got caught up (didn't even have time to flop over to Purple and back). Another bias shredded... I generally consider the type of chaos you just added to be anti-town, but I think I'm starting to understand the 'reaction test' thing (although many a mentor has said they're crap).

Our goal should 90% be to find Bob & RDR's teammate. Getting rid of a NK would increase our odds tremendously, I would think. It seems we'd have much more information to tie someone to those two at this point as well. I've gone from thinking everyone is town to thinking everyone (except ND & Bionic) are scum. I'll so do some ISO during lunch.

[FlaviusAetius]

Well I voted Tom when you saw he went off yavu despite really thinking yavu was scum.

I was pretty clear that we should of voted for yavu over Tom, but I’m p sure I would of voted for Tom too if I wasn’t catching up

I'm very happy that you aren't the one who chooses the target. Do you really think I'm a better lynch than mafia strongman?

what are you talking about? the strongman died, (bob) and actually half the people here wanted to kill your role slot(computer_genius) over bob, vapor or emc.

[FlaviusAetius]

Xorx, I had you down as Townleaning Bionic... Would be looking for confirmation/correction/explanation tomorrow.

What does it matter if I was townleanimg them? If they are the only one left after eliminating all other candidates, then they become the most likely. New info -> new reads.

While I dont completely agree with -all- your reasoning for eliminations, I think the result could very well be accurate.

Neither BionicMole or DemonRHK ever voted for any of the team moriarty members. Im sure that applies to more people, but I think this is a pretty decent case of a lot of different sources of "evidence" lining up quite nicely with a bunch of reads.

In fact, id go so far that Bionic and DemonRHK spent their time voting pretty much only for lynch-baity people.

eh' tom unleashed rdrivera at EoD Bionic and Demon werent on then
and Bob well that was interesting, I didnt even think Bob was scummy, he made a 'scumslip' and people pounced on him for it, im very against scumslip accusations, it seems to me we got Bob by mere luck, so I wouldnt hold either of them against that either

[FlaviusAetius]

STOP TALKINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

Flav here, is basically spoiled child who can't make his idea accepted.

ok mr. rude

[FlaviusAetius]

This is just classic scumdumpster reasoning for scumreading someone. Having to look at the literal words and trying to paint them scummy.

Prime candidate for the second scumteam.

When someone says they have to "try to be town", that doesn't make your eyebrows go up? If you follow the whole conversation Mr.Likely avoids the situation and finally rephrases his statement on like the 3rd try. It was more about how he skirted around and deflected. We came to an understanding and I moved off

No I generally dont take what people say literally, I dont believe in "scumslips" and im a firm believer that people that push such things are much more often than not simply scum themselves.

So then why were you making such a big deal on Bob? It doesnt make sense, if you dont believe in scumslips, yet you think people who didnt go after Bob are scummy

[FlaviusAetius]

I also discarded this tinfoil theory:
Tom and Yavu are teamies. Tom saw Yavu's likely lynchable end. Tom decided to throw himself under the bus to save yavu, and GUESSED correctly about rdr's role.

See why I threw it out? but...

I sincerely doubt this because Tom said he was Sherlock and gave a lot of other specific stuff, and the actual Sherlock hasn't CCed. Why would you even bring this up, you keep doing this, by bringing up things then saying 'eh nah that cant be