MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[xorxes]

I haven't read Kit's wall yet, saving it for later when I have more time.

For now, let's run some numbers, with worst case night scenarios:

D4: 12-3-1-1 We lynch last Moriarty,
N4: Two dead townies, Jack +1F
D5: 10-3-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N5: Two dead townies
D6: 8-2-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N6: Two dead townies, Jack +2F
D7: 6-1-1 We lynch last Mafia1
N7: one dead townie
D8: 5-1 Jack potential lylo

So we can't afford any mislynches if everything goes well for Jack.

Two plans to consider:

(1) Full massclaim now

This means lynching scum every time is very doable, as they will be forced to choose what to claim without a lot of info on what will be best for them. It does give Jack a lot of easty choices, but we still beat them if we don't mislynch.

(2) mini massclaim of male VTs now

There's only three left. This gives us three clears, or if more than three people claim it gives us a reduced pool and the fake claims are often easy to spot. It increases Jack's chances of hitting females, but it also increases the chances thet they hit scum.

Thoughts?

This certainly shows why it is important to get the last Moriarty mafia today. It also assumes that we do get the last Moriarty today, although I think that is a good assumption. I think the biggest risk with either claim option is that the SK will have a much better chance of killing 3 females by N8 if we do not lynch him before then. Also, it is not guaranteed we won't mislynch, whether the remaining mafia and SK all claim VT, or if one or more try to go for a 1 vs. 1 PR claim. Any mislynch further increases the chances of the SK surviving until N8.

Even if they all decide to go VT, don't you think forcing them to decide now whether they go male or female is a good idea?

[DemonRHK]

This all assumes a perfect hit rate at night, all the combined NKs are running a 33% hit rate at current.

[bozotheclown]

Alright, DemonRHK is currently top (only) wagon at the time of writing and my gut (:P @ dargo) says Temasek and Bozotheclown are probably but not certainly correct that he is the last member of Moriarty’s team - but I’m not certain that makes him our best lynch today, or at least not without careful examination of who precisely is so very eager to see him and his potential nk dead.

Going in to D5 with 10 town, 3 maf (on one team) and 1 Jack is not precisely lylo but it would be a much cleaner playing field for Burke and Hare’s team than they faced at the start of the game.

At the time of writing, the wagon on Demon is:

Xorxes
Bozotheclown
DemonRHK
Temasek22
KalelChase

Discounting Demon’s suicide pill as the tactical vote he says it is, that gives us four people to look at and I’ll approach them in alphabetical order.

Bozotheclown
Instinct read: Scum based on meta

P1-3 he is exploring Jack’s mechanics and determining his threat profile (NAI, 3P focus could just be exploring role new to the game).

P4-16ish he is pushing a weak mechanics-driven case against Jekyll/Hyde but is less monomaniacal than usual, allowing himself to be dissuaded by a general Town sense that Jekyll does more good than harm. Seems to be trying to encourage J/H to claim early (scummy for being less driven than usual, scummy for pushing early doctor claim).

He does let himself get drawn into picking at Rdr’s posts early, first correcting him and then suggesting he might be pocketing xorxes here:
viewtopic.php?p=114738#p114738

P26-EoN1 he gets pulled in to defending his play in previous games and then vote-flipping between Vapor and Computer as low activity targets in a poor position to defend themselves.

Vapor, we now know, was Sherlock.
Computer’s slot has now been replaced by Yazu (claims VT, consistent with twice-subbed role).

Fairly high activity in early N1 (town points) getting quiet as he draws close to EoN. (NAI)

D2 p44 - p76 he doesn’t… really… say anything. Lots of short posts asking small questions and then not following up, and engages lightly with the Chaqa - ND double-Jekyll controversy. Argues that we need to lynch one of them which is mildly consistent with previous view that Dr Jekyll is bad for town but still scummy.

Sidebar: Logically exposed Hyde would prefer to target scum if he can. If he’s seen to be targeting town PRs he will get lynched.

P76 - EoD2 He chases Frostwind in the name of hunting Bob’s team-mate. This is townie on the face of it, but in a multi-mafia format could also indicate the rival Mafia team. (NAI)

Frost dies and flips Vanilla town.

N2-D3 He returns to Yazu, questioning his VT claim, reassuring him about the odds of the Jack mechanic, chatting with xorxes and Einstein and Tom… and then votes for Yazu anyway.

He gets drawn off towards the end of the day into the Tom - Rdr confrontation, but is a bit more mentally alert than I am at that point and swings from a Tom vote to Rdr after Tom claims. NAI.

N3 He discusses the night’s topic (whether we should be talking or not, for some reason) and then engages briefly with Vecna and Xorxes but without any particular aggression. He seems like town just waiting for dawn.

P126 (a MINUTE before Dawn) he calls out DemonRHK for bussing rdr and Bob on the basis that he scum-read them both very early before any coordination would be possible - and the fact that he didn’t vote for either of them (bozo notes - I have not verified this) certainly feels indicative. However this is a bold assertion to make just before EoN given that there are multiple chances that he could be about to die unless Bozo was already on one scum team and was pretty sure Demon was on the other, reducing the chances to 1 nk (possibly roleblocked, although ND has not confirmed this).

D4 (to time of writing) he keeps focusing on Demon which simply doesn’t make sense in a dual mafa game. Demon is extremely vulnerable to Mafia 2 nightkill and will likely focus his own nk on perceived threats, not to trying to wipe out a large town faction that can lynch him with mafia 2’s enthusiastic support until quite late.

Read: Bozo on Mafia Team 2


##Vote Purplecow

It is not clear to me which items from this list you find scum indicative, if you specify I will address them.

One thing I do not understand is this:

Sidebar: Logically exposed Hyde would prefer to target scum if he can. If he’s seen to be targeting town PRs he will get lynched.

Hyde's only win condition is to eliminate the town, he has no incentive to target mafia. I think you are saying that if he tries to kill town, we would lynch ND to stop him. However, we have no way of knowing which kills Hyde is responsible for. Also, the potential for Hyde to kill town is enough to consider lynching ND if we need to stop a Hyde NK, even if we knew Hyde had NKed a mafia earlier, I do not think we would want to take that into consideration.

I also do not understand what you seem to think it is scum indicative about my EON post and vote to lynch DemonRHK. What do you mean by this: "However this is a bold assertion to make just before EoN given that there are multiple chances that he could be about to die"? The point of posting just before EON is to get information out in case you get NKed.

[dargorygel]

3: Scumteam B still has all their roles in tact. Even if we lynch the SK in those 5 days, they can steal his knife and have 1.5 kills. The RB might also be troublesome if they can deduce our doctor.

They can't use the knife against town, can they?

I guess they could use it against Jekyll, but then it reduces the number of nightkills. And Jack will have to be dead by then.

So I'm not really worried about them stealing Jack's knife.

@xorxes (although really, @anyone) Here is the description of how the knife works if stolen.
" If you obtain Jack’s KNIFE, this does not give your team an additional nightkill. Instead, if you yourself are targeted by a nightly killing action while in possession of the knife, you will kill your assailant instead (the knife is then discarded)."
Does it seem strange that vecna didn't know this? Does it seem strange that Kitsune didn't know this?
If they DID know this, and are throwing out this plan... how does that benefit them?

I wonder if someone is trying to divert attention from a good path by throwing up a silly path. Or trying to look like they are more planny than they really feel like doing atm.

[ND]

Ugh ##unvote

[dargorygel]

Flav has gone dramatically silent after the death of rdr.
Final member of his team laying low?
Come back, flav, come back.

[dargorygel]

In fact... his late vote (after the Tom reveal) looks like necessary bussing.

##Vote FlaviusAetius

[dargorygel]

I agree with Tom's analysis of purple's reaction to Tom's false report to purple's role.

[purplecow]

Well I take it purple isn't dealing. It was and is a good deal.
##purplecow

@purple so do you think Tom is scum or reaction testing? You mentioned both.

My best guess is that Tom is on Team 2 and they think I'm Team 1 goon?

[purplecow]

From looks of it he is probably not Jack

Me or Tom?

[purplecow]

Purple. You need to weigh pros and cons here. We are both dead. If your team knows who SK is, now is the time

My team is town. If anyone thinks they know who the SK is they should speak up.

[dargorygel]

Well I take it purple isn't dealing. It was and is a good deal.
##purplecow

@purple so do you think Tom is scum or reaction testing? You mentioned both.

My best guess is that Tom is on Team 2 and they think I'm Team 1 goon?

Jump ahead, Purple

[Vecna]

3: Scumteam B still has all their roles in tact. Even if we lynch the SK in those 5 days, they can steal his knife and have 1.5 kills. The RB might also be troublesome if they can deduce our doctor.

They can't use the knife against town, can they?

I guess they could use it against Jekyll, but then it reduces the number of nightkills. And Jack will have to be dead by then.

So I'm not really worried about them stealing Jack's knife.

Ah right. guess that role really isnt that scary then.

[purplecow]

A quick skim of Days 1 & 2 don't reveal much helpful voting by Purple or Rivera, or much helpful in who they voted for. Purple did vote Vecna, so that's a very minor thing, but overall it's hard to say.

I voted Vecna because no one had any idea what he was saying.

[purplecow]

Alright, DemonRHK is currently top (only) wagon at the time of writing and my gut (:P @ dargo) says Temasek and Bozotheclown are probably but not certainly correct that he is the last member of Moriarty’s team - but I’m not certain that makes him our best lynch today, or at least not without careful examination of who precisely is so very eager to see him and his potential nk dead.

Going in to D5 with 10 town, 3 maf (on one team) and 1 Jack is not precisely lylo but it would be a much cleaner playing field for Burke and Hare’s team than they faced at the start of the game.

At the time of writing, the wagon on Demon is:

Xorxes
Bozotheclown
DemonRHK
Temasek22
KalelChase

Discounting Demon’s suicide pill as the tactical vote he says it is, that gives us four people to look at and I’ll approach them in alphabetical order.

Bozotheclown
Instinct read: Scum based on meta

P1-3 he is exploring Jack’s mechanics and determining his threat profile (NAI, 3P focus could just be exploring role new to the game).

P4-16ish he is pushing a weak mechanics-driven case against Jekyll/Hyde but is less monomaniacal than usual, allowing himself to be dissuaded by a general Town sense that Jekyll does more good than harm. Seems to be trying to encourage J/H to claim early (scummy for being less driven than usual, scummy for pushing early doctor claim).

He does let himself get drawn into picking at Rdr’s posts early, first correcting him and then suggesting he might be pocketing xorxes here:
viewtopic.php?p=114738#p114738

P26-EoN1 he gets pulled in to defending his play in previous games and then vote-flipping between Vapor and Computer as low activity targets in a poor position to defend themselves.

Vapor, we now know, was Sherlock.
Computer’s slot has now been replaced by Yazu (claims VT, consistent with twice-subbed role).

Fairly high activity in early N1 (town points) getting quiet as he draws close to EoN. (NAI)

D2 p44 - p76 he doesn’t… really… say anything. Lots of short posts asking small questions and then not following up, and engages lightly with the Chaqa - ND double-Jekyll controversy. Argues that we need to lynch one of them which is mildly consistent with previous view that Dr Jekyll is bad for town but still scummy.

Sidebar: Logically exposed Hyde would prefer to target scum if he can. If he’s seen to be targeting town PRs he will get lynched.

P76 - EoD2 He chases Frostwind in the name of hunting Bob’s team-mate. This is townie on the face of it, but in a multi-mafia format could also indicate the rival Mafia team. (NAI)

Frost dies and flips Vanilla town.

N2-D3 He returns to Yazu, questioning his VT claim, reassuring him about the odds of the Jack mechanic, chatting with xorxes and Einstein and Tom… and then votes for Yazu anyway.

He gets drawn off towards the end of the day into the Tom - Rdr confrontation, but is a bit more mentally alert than I am at that point and swings from a Tom vote to Rdr after Tom claims. NAI.

N3 He discusses the night’s topic (whether we should be talking or not, for some reason) and then engages briefly with Vecna and Xorxes but without any particular aggression. He seems like town just waiting for dawn.

P126 (a MINUTE before Dawn) he calls out DemonRHK for bussing rdr and Bob on the basis that he scum-read them both very early before any coordination would be possible - and the fact that he didn’t vote for either of them (bozo notes - I have not verified this) certainly feels indicative. However this is a bold assertion to make just before EoN given that there are multiple chances that he could be about to die unless Bozo was already on one scum team and was pretty sure Demon was on the other, reducing the chances to 1 nk (possibly roleblocked, although ND has not confirmed this).

D4 (to time of writing) he keeps focusing on Demon which simply doesn’t make sense in a dual mafa game. Demon is extremely vulnerable to Mafia 2 nightkill and will likely focus his own nk on perceived threats, not to trying to wipe out a large town faction that can lynch him with mafia 2’s enthusiastic support until quite late.

Read: Bozo on Mafia Team 2


##Vote Purplecow

This vote seems very confusing to me. You say Demon is the only wagon when you are writing and then vote me like pretty much everyone else has been?

[purplecow]

So to get ahead of any ideas of mass claim....


I didn’t scan purple. It’s our job now to figure out the reactions. Three people knew I was lying because I was roleblocked. For what it’s worth, I got a towny reaction from purple from this. The sketchiest reaction is from DemonRHK who looks to be either coaching scumbuddies by saying “why weren’t you roleblocked” or just making a really bad comment as town.

Or perhaps not. Also I realized I'm pulling a Flav.

[purplecow]

Well I'm going to ##unvote myself.

[bozotheclown]

I haven't read Kit's wall yet, saving it for later when I have more time.

For now, let's run some numbers, with worst case night scenarios:

D4: 12-3-1-1 We lynch last Moriarty,
N4: Two dead townies, Jack +1F
D5: 10-3-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N5: Two dead townies
D6: 8-2-1 We lynch from Mafia1
N6: Two dead townies, Jack +2F
D7: 6-1-1 We lynch last Mafia1
N7: one dead townie
D8: 5-1 Jack potential lylo

So we can't afford any mislynches if everything goes well for Jack.

Two plans to consider:

(1) Full massclaim now

This means lynching scum every time is very doable, as they will be forced to choose what to claim without a lot of info on what will be best for them. It does give Jack a lot of easty choices, but we still beat them if we don't mislynch.

(2) mini massclaim of male VTs now

There's only three left. This gives us three clears, or if more than three people claim it gives us a reduced pool and the fake claims are often easy to spot. It increases Jack's chances of hitting females, but it also increases the chances thet they hit scum.

Thoughts?

This certainly shows why it is important to get the last Moriarty mafia today. It also assumes that we do get the last Moriarty today, although I think that is a good assumption. I think the biggest risk with either claim option is that the SK will have a much better chance of killing 3 females by N8 if we do not lynch him before then. Also, it is not guaranteed we won't mislynch, whether the remaining mafia and SK all claim VT, or if one or more try to go for a 1 vs. 1 PR claim. Any mislynch further increases the chances of the SK surviving until N8.

Even if they all decide to go VT, don't you think forcing them to decide now whether they go male or female is a good idea?

The fact that the VTs can be divided into 2 groups definitely increases our chances of identifying the fake claims, and therefore makes a mass claim a better option than if all the VTs were the same. If the SK had been eliminated at any point, I think a mass claim would have been a good option, and certainly as soon as the SK is eliminated going forward, I think we should mass claim. However, if we did a complete mass claim now, it gives the SK a good chance of reaching his win condition by N8, which would make it a race to lynch the SK. We would even be helping the SK identify the female VTs because we would be trying to find the mafia among the VT claims. Revealing our PRs would also make it more likely we would see worse case NKs, since the mafia still have the RB. I think we would still have a good chance of winning with a mass claim, because the chances are good we would hit the SK before N8. However, I think we are already in a good position to win thanks to the limited NKs and lynching mafia 2 out of 3 days, and likely 3 out of 4 after D4, so I am not sure a mass claim today increases our chances of winning.

As for a claim of just male VTs, that also increases the chances of the SK killing 3 females by N8, and doing it now gives him better odds of hitting a female N4 without any immediate benefit to us, assuming DemonRHK does not get cleared by it.

[xorxes]

Can you do the numbers for male VT claiming?

Assume we lynch female goon RHK, female commuter commutes on even nights and female VT Chaqa is protected by doc.

I get Jack's chances with no claims are 4 in 14. With every scum clañiming male VT they go up to 3 in 9, which is not a huge increase, and we force all scum to commit.

Scum that doesn't commit lowers Jack's chances and adds themselves to Jack's potential targets.

[xorxes]

Actually, that's wrong because Jack already knows Tom and ND are male, so it goes from 4 in 12 to 3 in 6, correct? A third to a half.