MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[Vecna]

I have a guilty on rivera. Watched xorxes night two.

Lynch rivera. First post of the game signaled who I was scanning. First post D2 was posting the guilty results

You are lying. Sherlock please don't Cc.

lol, see, he actually did pop back in. Classic Rdrivera

[Vecna]

No, I don't believe it.

##Vote Tom Bombadil

spicy

[e.m.c^42]

Vecna is looking better, hmm

I actually kinda want both him and xorx to be scummy enough to be almost lynched but not quite, so we can see how their endgame play is, regardless of alignment. Have never seen it

lmfao

[e.m.c^42]

After sleep Kit's EOD play actually looks more towny than scummy, I think

[Vecna]

Purplecow and Kit are scum

Chaqa is back to a scum lean

Id say based on that going against Tom, the only way Kitsune is scum if he is the last on Team Moriarty. No way the other team is gonna do that right there, since worst case scenario they first lynch a town and an opposing team member the day after.

[e.m.c^42]

But then again, by time she doubtflipflopped lynch was already set.

hmm

[Vecna]

shame it wasnt the other team, but getting rid of the strongman seems pretty great

No it’s really great it was this team if we get one more of them which is really likely due to all the NKs at night, and that gets rid of one final NK

Having both teams alive and accidentally shooting eachother seems pretty great to me

[Vecna]

Does that put the "HURR DURR CHAQA DA STRONGMAN" theories to rest?

Next lynch should be KItsune IMO.

I'm happy with this wagon for now.

I'm glad I was right about rdr, and apparently wrong about Tom.

Your refusing to vote for rdr at the end and all the objections you were raising was kind of weird though. With a claim like that, and with rivera not claiming anything important, there was no reason not to lynch.

Or maybe you are the real Sherlock and Tom pulled one of his signature moves again, which would be even more awesome.

If he did, it would be even greater than the first time around, since going back, he softed his results all over the place.

[e.m.c^42]

My daytime activity looks disgustingly miserable. Am kind of surprised Vecna did not call out Rivera sooner, usually he has snaplocking reads on him lol

[Vecna]

I could be lynched tomorrow if there’s any doubt so that Jack doesn’t have a clear target though.

Nah, let the poor man have something, we can't waste lynches.

Easy enough to expend one doc save to not let him have it as well. Having him only require 2 kills might matter going into the endgame (if we somehow dont catch him - but to be fair, I havent the faintest clue amongst my scumreads)

[Vecna]

My daytime activity looks disgustingly miserable. Am kind of surprised Vecna did not call out Rivera sooner, usually he has snaplocking reads on him lol

I called him out on both my D1 readback and my D3 checkup, but indeed I wasnt very certain because he had one very good towny sounding post at some point.

[Vecna]

Some thoughts:

Purplecow: nothing he has done in this game is town indicative. Just sheeps people on their votes basically his whole game. He plays a quiet game, blends in, sheeps the dominant wagon. This play is something I’ve seen before. It’s characteristic of new scum.

Kitsune: Extremely scum indicative play at the end of day 2. That is enough for a lynch. Openly dismissing Tom’s Sherlock claim and directly voting for him? I don’t buy the he didn’t understand (before he offers that defense). He was playing the role of a chaos agent and trying to run out the clock on Tom. If the Scum got Tom/Sherlock lynched D2 that frees them up for a night kill. Now they have to attempt to night kill Tom keyword is attempt. We’ll see if Tom can be saved or not.

Chaqa: Chaqa has emerged as a *town* leader, but he is a negative town leader aka a false idol. His entire case on Tom is, like I said when I saw it, weak. It’s built entirely on meta evidence. It’s built entirely on things that happened in games past. The very few pieces from this game revolve around Vapor and a one off comment he made that was probably misunderstood anyway. It was a bad case. People who voted for Tom based on this case are suspect for even buying into it. Anyway, I digress. Yes, there was a moment I thought he was scum, a moment I thought he was town, and now I’m back to scum. Reads evolve around play. Chaqa has a history (Fake claiming, this Tom BS case, etc) His play has now cost two PR’s to have to reveal themselves. (Me and Tom). Chaqa should be lynched.

Yav, Cmdr, Bionic, and Darg remain second and tertiary suspects

I disagree on pretty much all of this except Bionic and Darg

[BionicMole]

Yikes, I don't want to be obfuscating things. That's another strike against me and a reason to stay out of the way. Please consider the fact that I'm fairly new and might just be a lousy town player.

I'll try to keep it simple.

I didn't say one word about Frost. In fact, I never jumped on the wagon and didn't understand why it was so huge.

I asked YOU why you have to TRY to be town. Then you deflect and attempt to muddy the waters further. This isn't a great look and worthy of getting my vote for now

##Vote Commander

This is just classic scumdumpster reasoning for scumreading someone. Having to look at the literal words and trying to paint them scummy.

Prime candidate for the second scumteam.

When someone says they have to "try to be town", that doesn't make your eyebrows go up? If you follow the whole conversation Mr.Likely avoids the situation and finally rephrases his statement on like the 3rd try. It was more about how he skirted around and deflected. We came to an understanding and I moved off

[yavuzovic]

*phew*
Also how did the wagon on Tom even start? I made it pretty clear for Tom to be scum yavu did too(does not mean Tom will be a scum if yavu is, it’s just the two had to go hand in hand)

Well I voted Tom when you saw he went off yavu despite really thinking yavu was scum.

I was pretty clear that we should of voted for yavu over Tom, but I’m p sure I would of voted for Tom too if I wasn’t catching up

I'm very happy that you aren't the one who chooses the target. Do you really think I'm a better lynch than mafia strongman?

[dargorygel]

Welcome back, darg. Are you really here?
I dunno… life is still life.

Some Tom things and some Kit things.

Tom
Last game I claimed too early. It didn’t wreck the game, but it was bad for town. I was too urgent for my information to be used by town, because I don’t trust my own WIFOM. Tom’s outing of himself seems a bit early. I do trust his analysis ability. But there are three reasons for him to claim.

He could have been bussing rdr. If there had been a big train on rdr, this would make sense. It would give Tom cred. But there really wasn’t. Only kalel (whose reasoning wasn’t all that strong.)

He could have been cross-mafia accusing rdr. The wagon formed on rdr pretty quickly. Despite his low posting and the lack of real evidence. The only way I see this happening, is if Tom noticed something that RDR had said that made him jump to this conclusion. In a way, if Tom is doing this it is VERY similar to his fake cop reads on Jamie and brain in that earlier game. He was confident, and found this was a good way to get his confidence out there. But it would require that rdr had actually DONE something clearly scummy. I don’t see that rdr did that.

He could be a VT who is faking SH. This is unlikely for the same reason as above. There isn’t enough evidence of rdr’s guilt. Perhaps Tom COULD have been fake claiming to draw the NK on himself, but if this was true, he would claim at the beginning of N.

So, I’m convinced of Tom’s role.

Although I look forward to EoG to see why he did it NOW.

I am interested in what people think of Kitsune

About Kitsune
Looking at her interaction with/about Bob… she votes for him on page 31, almost sort of like poe. But a very very early poe for her. Her vote there stays a short while, and on the next page, she slips off him onto bozo. But her reasoning for doing so is unusually absent. Granted, her first vote was not solidly felt or presented, but this is unlike Kitsune. I don’t see where she has done this the rest of the game (switch so easily.) So I wonder if she was planting some bus seeds.

Later, notice Kitsune and bozo. Her first post (also on p 31) she mentions that bozo is different. She mentions him a few more times (p 41, 42, and then 111.) But never does more than have indigestion about him.

And then votes him instead of the rdr wagon.

If this was someone else but Kit, I wouldn’t fret. But Kit is always logical, meticulously ‘case’ and ‘iso’ oriented, and far more brain than guts.

I don’t find any other consistent stream of thought in her posts. This doesn’t seem like normal Kit. But it might seem like Kit on a scum team with ANOTHER scum team out there. Not only busy, but unsure how/where to focus.

@Kit
You mention on p 119 that you read the game while ‘busy’ by reading the bot. Why do you do that instead of scan the game?

[Vecna]

If we assume scum would avoid ending up on the same wagon, BionicMole is the most likley, because Demon voted together with rivera D2 and D3.

Xorx, I had you down as Townleaning Bionic... Would be looking for confirmation/correction/explanation tomorrow.

What does it matter if I was townleanimg them? If they are the only one left after eliminating all other candidates, then they become the most likely. New info -> new reads.

While I dont completely agree with -all- your reasoning for eliminations, I think the result could very well be accurate.

Neither BionicMole or DemonRHK ever voted for any of the team moriarty members. Im sure that applies to more people, but I think this is a pretty decent case of a lot of different sources of "evidence" lining up quite nicely with a bunch of reads.

In fact, id go so far that Bionic and DemonRHK spent their time voting pretty much only for lynch-baity people.

[Vecna]

I need to answer further questions tomorrow. That's all for today. But really, I had no reason to kill Bunny. I didn't think about whom I would kill but Bunny, maybe I would try some people townreading me so I could gain credits later.
You are slandering me Tom.

Time to catch up on what actually happened during D3

Yavuz seems pretty towny to me straight off the bat. A level of genuineness to his posts, and he's actually kidding around about the nightkill and Tom accusing him.

His mastery of the literary arts sometimes comes off as kidding around.

Not this time. The jokes were in the posts preceding the quoted one though.

[yavuzovic]

STOP TALKINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

Flav here, is basically spoiled child who can't make his idea accepted.

[Vecna]

I didn't say one word about Frost. In fact, I never jumped on the wagon and didn't understand why it was so huge.

I asked YOU why you have to TRY to be town. Then you deflect and attempt to muddy the waters further. This isn't a great look and worthy of getting my vote for now

##Vote Commander

This is just classic scumdumpster reasoning for scumreading someone. Having to look at the literal words and trying to paint them scummy.

Prime candidate for the second scumteam.

He is currently my prime candidate for last Moriarty. Why second team?

When I typed that I had another cloud/group of scum suspects in mind that were hard defending and deflecting from the Bob wagon on D1, and a more general read of "Scum" on Bionic for that post.

But I agree fully with you after reading the rest that team M is much more likely.

[Vecna]

VOTE COUNT 3.2

yavuzovic(3) - bozotheclown, FlaviusAetius, Tom Bombadil
purplecow(2) - ND, ItsHosuke
CmdrLikely(2) - xorxes, BionicMole
Chaqa(1) - Vecna
ItsHosuke(1) - Temasek22
FlaviusAetius(1) - CmdrLikely
bozotheclown(1) - purplecow

Currently YAVUZOVIC is set to be lynched.

There are 27 hours and 46 minutes to go.

note to self: top 4 wagons on people that are probably all town

Which wagon do you count as fourth?

Chaqa

I keep flipflopping hard on that shit, and ive constantly flip-flopping hard on whether it makes sense to scumread him or not.

If we reduce him to Jack/other non-M scumteam, the odds are becoming better for him just being town I think. Theres a lot of thoughts floating around in my head on this.