MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[rdrivera2005]

Sorting people out:

New/newish players that seem to be at least trying:

BionicMole
CmdrLikely
KalelChase
purplecow

VT claimants that I tend to believe for now:

Chaqa
yavuzovic

Maybe town but who knows:

ItsHosuke
Temasek22

Scum candidates only because missing in action:

e.m.c^42
Kitsune

Scum candidates because of low effort:

bozotheclown
dargorygel
DemonRHK
rdrivera2005

Scum candidates because of one specific thing that may or may not be significant:

Tom Bombadil
Vecna

Class of his own:

FlaviusAetius

Why are you only trying to sort by activity and effort?

And care to elaborate on the tom/me thing so we know youre not actually pulling our leg?

For the record, my read on Vecna, Tom, Xorxes and to a lesser extent Dargo is that they're dangerous and the fact that they're not dead yet (and haven't even been targeted as far as we know) has worrying implications for their teams.

Even though that's less cut and dried with two Mafia teams.

I don't think they're all mafia, no. But at least 2 and probably 3 are.

You think 3 out of 5 scum are on that group but you still join two of them on voting me. Interesting.

[xorxes]

Sorting people out:

New/newish players that seem to be at least trying:

BionicMole
CmdrLikely
KalelChase
purplecow

VT claimants that I tend to believe for now:

Chaqa
yavuzovic

Maybe town but who knows:

ItsHosuke
Temasek22

Scum candidates only because missing in action:

e.m.c^42
Kitsune

Scum candidates because of low effort:

bozotheclown
dargorygel
DemonRHK
rdrivera2005

Scum candidates because of one specific thing that may or may not be significant:

Tom Bombadil
Vecna

Class of his own:

FlaviusAetius

Why are you only trying to sort by activity and effort?

And care to elaborate on the tom/me thing so we know youre not actually pulling our leg?

I repeated it many times: You because you voted for Chaqa when he was an uncc'd PR. It is quite obvious you're not really paying full attention to the thread, so maybe that explains it. Not necessarily scummy but def anti-town.
Tom: because there's a good chance he is the Grave Robber based on Vapor's knife thing.

As to why focus on activity and effort, because I think they often correlate with scumminess, and we don't have a whole lot more to go on.

[Kitsune]

VOTE COUNT 3.2

yavuzovic(3) - bozotheclown, FlaviusAetius, Tom Bombadil
purplecow(2) - ND, ItsHosuke
CmdrLikely(2) - xorxes, BionicMole
Chaqa(1) - Vecna
ItsHosuke(1) - Temasek22
FlaviusAetius(1) - CmdrLikely
bozotheclown(1) - purplecow

Currently YAVUZOVIC is set to be lynched.

There are 27 hours and 46 minutes to go.

Wonder why tom bomb conviently moved off of yavu, in fact I dont even remember him voting for yavu...seems like he's sheeping, and probably bussing

I hope you guys are right, but my reads still point to Rdr and I can't join you on Yavu without sheeping. I do like your wagon more though.

@Yavu, maybe come join me on Rdr unless you townlean him?

[rdrivera2005]

I am leaving now to get my daughter to a dance presentation, will try to be around at EOD, but if I can't and you decide to lynch me, please lynch Tom tomorrow.

[xorxes]

3. He voted for me before ND reveal, seemed like he may have already known who was lying (as he would have known ND was saved)

Wait, wait, he voted for you before ND had said anything. What do you mean "seemed like he may have already known who was lying"?

You had claimed that you would save yourself as Jekyll. There was no reason for anyone to doubt that other than:

- the real Jekyll
- someone who was your scummate and therefore knew you were not Jekyll

Someone who was scum but not your scummate would have no idea that you were lying. Even if they tried to kill ND and failed, that could have been because ND was commuter, or because Dr Watson saved ND. The fact that their kill of ND failed in no way would suggest that you were lying about being Jekyll.

So, no, you're making stuff up. This is a reason you came up with later to justify your read of Vecna, it is not something you could have thought at that time.

I think this is as good point, why you now say you find Chaqa's female VT claim believable? I do not see how that has anything to do with this apparent contradiction.

I just think scum would not claim female because of Jack.

[FlaviusAetius]

I'm the lynch now.

I am not Jack the Ripper.
I don't refuse being a mafia member for now, but stop calling me Jack the Ripper.
If I were that, I would be seeking for gender counts and not VT PM.
If I was going to ask where the PMs are, I would ask this privately to GM. Not in the main thread.

WHAT? You dont refuse being a mafia member? How does that work?

[FlaviusAetius]

So yavu is obv scum. So is rivera. Maybe still Kalel?? And Vecna?

obv scum, wonder what changed your mind, lets see..

[bozotheclown]

Wait, wait, he voted for you before ND had said anything. What do you mean "seemed like he may have already known who was lying"?

You had claimed that you would save yourself as Jekyll. There was no reason for anyone to doubt that other than:

- the real Jekyll
- someone who was your scummate and therefore knew you were not Jekyll

Someone who was scum but not your scummate would have no idea that you were lying. Even if they tried to kill ND and failed, that could have been because ND was commuter, or because Dr Watson saved ND. The fact that their kill of ND failed in no way would suggest that you were lying about being Jekyll.

So, no, you're making stuff up. This is a reason you came up with later to justify your read of Vecna, it is not something you could have thought at that time.

I think this is as good point, why you now say you find Chaqa's female VT claim believable? I do not see how that has anything to do with this apparent contradiction.

I just think scum would not claim female because of Jack.

OK, but I am finding it hard to believe any Chaqa claim at this point.

[purplecow]

VOTE COUNT 3.2

yavuzovic(3) - bozotheclown, FlaviusAetius, Tom Bombadil
purplecow(2) - ND, ItsHosuke
CmdrLikely(2) - xorxes, BionicMole
Chaqa(1) - Vecna
ItsHosuke(1) - Temasek22
FlaviusAetius(1) - CmdrLikely
bozotheclown(1) - purplecow

Currently YAVUZOVIC is set to be lynched.

There are 27 hours and 46 minutes to go.

Wonder why tom bomb conviently moved off of yavu, in fact I dont even remember him voting for yavu...seems like he's sheeping, and probably bussing

So yavu is obv scum. So is rivera. Maybe still Kalel?? And Vecna?

obv scum, wonder what changed your mind, lets see..

Good catch. I'm sorry Tom but for now this makes me suspicous.
##Vote Tom

[bozotheclown]

I didn't say anything like GMs will reveal a proof. They will let me know if it's allowed and I will reveal a proof, where it explains something.

So, you didn't get a VT PM when you subbed in?

No, I was told to be VT on Discord. I asked Jamiet to sub in, on Discord, later he kept the conversation there. I didn't get a formal VT PM, instead I was just a VT. I won't increase SKs chance by revealing my gender, though.

So when you were told you were a VT, you were also told if you were male or female, but you never received a VT PM?

[Kitsune]

I'm the lynch now.

I am not Jack the Ripper.
I don't refuse being a mafia member for now, but stop calling me Jack the Ripper.
If I were that, I would be seeking for gender counts and not VT PM.
If I was going to ask where the PMs are, I would ask this privately to GM. Not in the main thread.

WHAT? You dont refuse being a mafia member? How does that work?

Okay I missed that and it's more than mildly suspicious to my mind.

Adding Yavu to my "huh?!" list although I'd like to believe it's too obvious for scum.

Still...

[xorxes]

For the record, my read on Vecna, Tom, Xorxes and to a lesser extent Dargo is that they're dangerous and the fact that they're not dead yet (and haven't even been targeted as far as we know) has worrying implications for their teams.

It's a lazy read, because mafia have plenty of reasons not to go for obvious targets: let the other team take the shot, let's not give Gambler an easy pick, let's not be caught by Sherlock watching, let's not risk the doctor saving them (two doctors!).

In addition to that, ND apparently crumbed Sherlock, and damo said something that could be interpreted as hinting Sherlock, and Sherlock is the main PR Mafia want to kill. So being surprized that we were not targeted is just... lazy.

Even though that's less cut and dried with two Mafia teams.

I don't think they're all mafia, no. But at least 2 and probably 3 are.

Pulling numbers out of nowhere.

[Chaqa]

Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the TomBomb

Herein I lay out why I and others think Tom is scum.

Part the First: Meta

I just want him to participate.

That's the first decent reason to vote me, I feel I am doing a pretty shitty job at scumhunting.

##vote Tom, he is better then this as town.

Nope. This is how I operate every game. I rule out people I think are town. Get my POE pool and vote from there. You seem the most likely to be scum (and on Bobs team) for your D1 actions, you haven’t do anything to make me think you are town, and are a dangerous scum player. POE says you should be the lynch.

Here, Tom claims that this short, concise, poorly-supported methodology is how he normally operates. Without getting into specifics, let's look at the numbers game. This game, per the bot, Tom's words per post is 26.14. Let's find historical Tom games.

In M47, Tom was town with 36.63 words per post.
In M46, Tom was town with 32.73 words per post.
In M43, Tom was town with 24.72 words per post.
In M42, Tom was town with 35.71 words per post.
In M1006, Tom was town with 29.03 words per post.
In M40, Tom was town with 29.77 words per post.
In M39, Tom was town with 28.92 words per post.
In M34, Tom was town with 34.18 words per post.
In M33, Tom was town with 47.66 words per post.
In M32, Tom was town with 32.30 words per post.
In M30, Tom was town with 39.43 words per post.
In M29, Tom was mafia with 100.64 words per post.
in M28, Tom was town with 80.85 words per post.
In M27, Tom was town with 79.51 words per post.
In M26, Tom was town with 73.32 words per post.

This is the extent of the records. Worth noting:
1. Tom has barely ever been scum, and it was actually his highest-posting game, but I don't know for sure if it's a conclusive data point since it was so long ago.
2. Tom's 26.14 in this game is his lowest EVER with the exception of M43.

Point: I don't think it's definitive, but it definitely disproves his "this is how I am as town" point.

Part the Second: Vaporwave and the Knife

While holding Tom accountable for Vaporwave isn't completely fair, Vaporwave shared whatever role Tom now has. A key point against Vapor and therefore Tom was this post by Vapor:

Hyde doesn't win, but Jekyll does with town?

Anyway, there are so many nuances to this character, I think Jack is far more dangerous

Jack + scumbags, that's where we need to look

also I'm not sure if someone else killing a female will input a success onto Jack or rather that he needs to kill those ladies with his own knife

Bolded emphasis mine. "his own knife" is a very specific phrasing.

In last game, we learned Vaporwave has a tendency to not completely read through the setup, and specifically highlights key points of his own role PM (such as the bad-Hammer play before the restart). So, where did he get this "knife" talk from? Let's check this search:

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?word=knife&g=51

In fact, before Vaporwave, NO ONE in the game thread uses the word knife. It is however mentioned prominently in two role PMs:

You are WILLIAM BURKE, the GRAVE ROBBER

During the day you must vote for a suspect.
Once per game, at NIGHT, you may visit the grave of a character that has died by whatever means. You will recover any ITEMS which had been in their possession on their death, and may use those items just as if you were their original owner, although limited-use items are not recharged.

If you obtain a NOTEBOOK, you will find out who the owner of that notebook investigated, and the results – obtaining a notebook does not give you the ability to scan, track or watch for yourself. If you obtain Jack’s KNIFE, this does not give your team an additional nightkill. Instead, if you yourself are targeted by a nightly killing action while in possession of the knife, you will kill your assailant instead (the knife is then discarded).

You are part of Burke and Hare’s Company. You win when the Town, and the other Mafia faction, and Jack the Ripper are dead, or nothing can stop this from happening.

You are JACK, the WHITEHALL RIPPER

On EVEN numbered nights, you may perform a Night Kill using your KNIFE (item) on any player. If you target Mr. Hyde, your attack will fail.

You win the game if either of the following points is reached:

1. You have personally killed THREE female characters with your knife, by any point in the game.

2. The game reaches a point where only you and Dr.Jekyll / Mr.Hyde are left alive. At that point, Mr.Hyde wins with you, and Dr.Jekyll the rest of town, and the Mafia factions (which by this point are dead) all lose.

You are Third Party NK immune.

My conclusion, based on Vapor's specific phrasing, is that he is William Burke, as it talks specifically about JACK's knife. Who else does this? VAPOR:

Jack or rather that he needs to kill those ladies with his own knife

Vaporwave's ESL issues aside, I find this to fit with his history of "slips" and not reading setups thoroughly beyond his own role. Let's move on though to...

Part the Third: Votes

Vaporwave basically begins and is the primary pusher on the Bob wagon. While lynching scum would normally be a huge town-benefit, in this setup it also would indicate he could be a part of the other scum team. The fact he had NO qualms about Bob's death means he is VERY unlikely to be on Scum Team 1, but being on Scum Team 2 is certainly possible.

On Day 2, Tom has taken over, and spends most of the day pushing either me or Rivera before settling on Temasek. Not super alignment-indicative but it's interesting he is one of the few (relatively) people who does not join the Frostwind wagon. On Day 3 now, he has continued pushing Rivera now, but he apparently has lost all reason for voting Temasek?

The voting record is not quite as useful yet as it will be later, but I felt it should be included.

-------------------------------------------------

Make of this all what you will. A more thorough look into his posts will come, probably during the night if we don't lynch him.

[DemonRHK]

##Vote Tom

I don't like some of the votes on the top wagons (Tom, bozo, Bionic) and I think Tom's posts have been hollow.

In addition, I think flipping this slot answers some D1 questions regarding Scum vs. unknown.

[DemonRHK]

Also it seems I xposted a fucking novel

[xorxes]

##VOTE Tom

Let's do this.

[e.m.c^42]

imma be upfront here;

Read up, am up-to-date, but can't be arsed to actually write much lol

Not against the yavuz lynch, but don't know how to read him - still a null slot.

it kinda feels like the comp/frost wagon, in the sense that it's...idk. Bland, minimal salt n peppered versus the more usual spicy stuff.

Not entirely feeling the rivera lynch either - despite him giving off null vibes, he hasn't been really scummy either.

Tom's recent actions make me feel towards him the same as RHK. Somewhat losing the town-vibe transfer from Vapor, lmao

Regardless of whether xorx/vec seem scummy or not, it's probably not worth lynching here as even if they're scum, sooner or later the opposing scum team will kill 'em off, due to threat that way :v

Not against a Kit lynch, though actually.

[Chaqa]

I am leaving now to get my daughter to a dance presentation, will try to be around at EOD, but if I can't and you decide to lynch me, please lynch Tom tomorrow.

This is not the post of a scum.

[ND]

Why is cow not a wagon? Summarize the major three wagons for me. I've had a busy holiday weekend. e

[ND]

I am leaving now to get my daughter to a dance presentation, will try to be around at EOD, but if I can't and you decide to lynch me, please lynch Tom tomorrow.

This is not the post of a scum.

LOL I don't know what the case on him is, but yeah scum retreat from the thread all the time haha. wtf?