MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Nephthys]

@Kalel, who do you think should be stoned?

[Chaqa]

@Kalel, who do you think should be stoned?

If we're talking the fun way, I'm way ahead of ya.

[Nephthys]

@Kalel, who do you think should be stoned?

If we're talking the fun way, I'm way ahead of ya.

Don't do drugs kids, you'll turn into Chaqa <3

[Chaqa]

@Kalel, who do you think should be stoned?

If we're talking the fun way, I'm way ahead of ya.

Don't do drugs kids, you'll turn into Chaqa <3

Yeah, don't become a Chaqa, you'll be bad at mafia and lynch poor Vapor :/

[Nephthys]

If we're talking the fun way, I'm way ahead of ya.

Don't do drugs kids, you'll turn into Chaqa <3

Yeah, don't become a Chaqa, you'll be bad at mafia and lynch poor Vapor :/

I would have done that without drugs tbh

[Kitsune]

@Kalel, who do you think should be stoned?

I think there’s enough people throwing shade my way it’d be worth clearing me, but curious to hear Kalel’s views.

[damo666]

At least 1 person offering themselves up for stoning is bluffing.

[rdrivera2005]

At least 1 person offering themselves up for stoning is bluffing.

And offering in a contrived way like Kalel ("fine, but it will be a waste") means what?

[damo666]

At least 1 person offering themselves up for stoning is bluffing.

And offering in a contrived way like Kalel ("fine, but it will be a waste") means what?

NAI?

[Kitsune]

At least 1 person offering themselves up for stoning is bluffing.

I'm fine. Scan me if you have any concerns - I'm confident there are better kills than me this night phase, and if I'm wrong then there are more experienced champions for town regardless.

This game has been a great learning experience, but I'm ready to leave it if that's what the other players decide.

[foodcoats]

Alright, so the most interesting thing about the Maniac wagon D2 is not so much how it builds but how it dissipates after the time stone is activated:

-rdr's voting is weird:

##GM NOTE!!!

Please do NOT hold!!

DEADLINE HAS BEEN MOVED 12 HOURS LATER

Good, now we can lynch Nephtys.

##vote Nepthys

-this is bizarro BECAUSE THERE IS NO NEPH WAGON. So this is just bleeding the Maniac wagon. The only other thing rdr said D2 about Neph was thinking Neph's reaction to brain's fakeclaim was scum fakery.
-about 4 hours after this vanity vote for Neph, rdr jumps on the yuuki wagon, but the way rivera says it is as if rivera is trying to ignore the fact they are already OFF the Maniac wagon:

I think I wilk ##vote Yuuki

Maniac reaction to being on the chopping block looks really townie.

-I don't know if scum!rdr there is trying to pretend like they never voted Neph and are explaining they are moving off Maniac even though they are now on Neph, or if it is because town!rdr was just joke-voting Neph before. But the only reference rdr had made to Neph earlier in the day had been to scumread Neph, so I feel like it is less likely a joke and was more likely trying to see if others would wagon.

Other than rdr, the other people to move off the Maniac wagon were people who are either clear or largely accepted as town: EP, Chaqa, xorxes, Bunny, Fox.
-EP's vote itself looks scummy on its own, but EP had been involved in reading yuuki earlier and had tried to get on the yuuki wagon earlier, and was on Maniac to block the momentum on their own (EP) wagon. So EP's vote seems fine.
-Fox basically has no posts D2, the below is the best we get:

It is a beautiful day here and I will probably be on a patio for EOD. Will try to be on mobile, but no promises.

Of everything at this point, I think the Maniac wagon is our best bet, but Yuuki is interesting, too.

I think Sulit needs some attention, though. I worry that's getting by us. Dargo is another non-wagon I'd be interested in.

-What's interesting is that the above statement is made right near end of day and Fox is indeed on Maniac, but Fox later moves to yuuki nakedly, when the wagons were 6/6, making the yuuki into the lead wagon. Fox has only ever said that the Maniac wagon is the best bet, so why does Fox decided to be the one to reverse the wagons here? Scanning back up a couple pages there are no compelling yuuki arguments that might've swung Fox that I can see, mostly people are talking about Vision targets.

-The other weird thing is, 4 hours before deadline, Neph posts this:

Time for some more work from me, but first, off the top of my head I'm gonna

##vote kalel

Can we get any momentum here?

-Neph had previously thrown some doubts on Kalel throughout the day but Neph's posts seem to be saying Kalel is null, not that Neph has a scumread on Kalel. There are 7 votes on yuuki, but this vote of Neph's takes Maniac down to 4 rather than 5, shrinking the Maniac wagon WITHOUT jumping onto the yuuki one - making it overall less likely Maniac is a viable wagon while also avoiding completely damning yuuki, and basically wasting their vote on a vanity wagon.

[foodcoats]

The tl;dr there is that two of my strongest townreads, Neph and rdr, look bizarro on that Maniac/yuuki shift.

Will have to look at other days to get a better feel for it.

[foodcoats]

Okay, the below is interesting.

Mentioning at the top that Maniac spent so much time D3 SK-reading rdr that I don't think rdr can be scum.

Maniac actually looks quite townie here and pushes some good points. Myself, sulit, Kalel, darg (conftown) and Nephthys are absent from this full 360.

I also notice Maniac accepts EP's case here and calls them consistent while also previously in the day is full on slagging EP for claiming they were RB'd.

I’m interest in how Yuuki got lynched yesterday. Whilst he bears some responsibility there was also eight people who sealed his fate.

We know xorxes and Jamie are town. Espresso made a case against yuuki and pushed him, so his actions were consistent, I have issues with espresso for other reasons, but he is consistent here. Rdrivera barely mentions him but votes for him over me. At the end of the day people should decide between lead wagons and Rdrivera says he preferred Yuuki lynch over me. I vote yuuki very late. I was the other wagon and wanted to make sure lynch wasn’t SK influenced. Tem – says it's just a placeholder. Foxcastle – scum reads yuuki but no detail. Chaqa – flips-flops, first reads yuuki as def town or maybe town. Then says Yuuki is his scumlean then yuuki is lurking town.

Vaporwave, bunny and Dame all scum read yuuki but surprisingly weren’t on the lynch at the end. This is as relevant as the eight people who hanged yuuki.
The SK reduced the vote count. Maybe I’m Gamora? Maybe rdrivera isn’t the SK? So many were on me earlier on the day, it could be SK was on me earlier.

Questions:
@Chaqa: What did you actually think of yuuki and why did you flip-flop on your read?
@Vaporwave, Damo and BunnyGo – why were you scum reading someone but not voting for them when they were the lead wagon?
@Tem – you voted yuuki as a placeholder why?
@Foxcastle, could you explain a bit more why you voted Yuuki?

TIA

If I go full tinfoil now, sulit, Kalel and Nephthys look like possible scumbuddies because of Nephthys's weird EOD on D2 and the way that Maniac absents these three. I think Maniac was perspicacious enough to AT LEAST have noticed the way Nephthys voted.

[foodcoats]

What Maniac says here is true but it is uncharacteristic of Maniac's iso to give out hall passes.

Kalal, bunny and Neph are becoming huge town reads for me. Scum just don't put the work in that they are doing. I don't agree with everything they say, but you can see the effort they are putting in.

[foodcoats]

Maniac ALSO has a case as to why sulit is SK (D4)... so am I to clear both sulit and rdr for being attempted SK reads of Maniac's? It also largely felt like an OMGUS case... Maniac also called for the Vision stone to be used on sulit (along with three other players). Ehhh. This makes them look less great as scum partners... unless Maniac figured, after people told him to stop hunting the SK on D3, that he could SK-read sulit and AGAIN have it ignored. That's a big hat to wear but... actually it's a decent way to bus, because Maniac doesn't have to scum read sulit, just paint her negatively for a role that town is largely still not too concerned with at this point in the game.

(This is very large so just cutting it and you can follow the arrow.)

[foodcoats]

This is a weird interaction between Fox and Maniac D5 over Fox voting Sulit... Fox never explained this vote... and also never moved OFF it... maybe this is Maniac coaching scumbuddy Fox? Maniac AGAIN making an SK case.

I am probably too tunnelled on this theory but it seems very possible ONE of Maniac's SK's is scum.

##VOTE SULIT

I just don't understand this vote when we have two doc claimers and we're close to losing. This screams of SK who just doesn't care anymore, but finding SK can now wait.

Join me on Espresso if you're town.

[Jamiet99uk]

Maniac ALSO has a case as to why sulit is SK (D4)... so am I to clear both sulit and rdr for being attempted SK reads of Maniac's?

Maniac, I think, was genuinely searching for the SK.

[foodcoats]

Alright, the last thing I want to consider is why Maniac claimed doctor in the first place.

Scanning back from Maniac's claim, I don't see that Maniac was prepped to be under any additional stress the following day. Several people were scumreading Maniac but that had been ongoing the whole game. Did Maniac figure they'd be a likely lynch and needed to push on EP to sow confusion?

In Maniac's big claim post they don't really mention anyone other than EP and Foxcastle, but the discussion around Fox is more around how to justify their own doctor status, and then all the EP stuff is to get EP set up to be lynched.

On re-read in a couple places EP looked better than before, but it's still a situation where I am struggling to understand Maniac's motives which naturally leads me to question EP. Maniac was obviously wild and enjoyed creating confusion, so maybe it was just that: bravado and hubris because scum were doing so well, thinking they could get a kill on EP. But why risk their roleblocker to lynch the doc and then get the RB lynched in consequence?

...bleugh.

It seems likely from how Maniac played in general that this was more just a misplay than anything, like what darg did in the Mass Extinction game. But then EP is a big part (from the town side) of that interaction, and maybe thought it could be worth trying here to go for the win? EP still played pretty scummy most days.

Just not sure what Maniac was doing with that... but yeah most likely just Maniac being a wild card.

[KalelChase]

I don't

I think I've mostly got points lately for genuine attempts at scumhunting (i.e. stop being the village idiot), although my techniques are probably not a great deal of help since they consist of consolidating data for reposing without a great deal of analytics. My most current scum list did include Maniac (& Damo, Sulit, Food), so I've got that going for me (I had Nephs on that a few days ago but I've been turned around on that).

If the vision stone is still in our hands I'm fine being scanned, but obviously I've stated town so I consider it a waste.

I think that there's a lot more creative scumhunters than me still on the team so if there has to be one more VT sacrifice I'd be fine taking the fall providing the rest don't let me die in vain.

What changed your mind on me?

Two things. First, I'm giving quite a bit of credit to those that are taking the time to give me good advice. Probably not the best indicator, but...

And second, and for the first time this game for me, I made the adjustment based on more scummy behavior from others. I.e. instead of town reading you I've consolidated my scum list and you aren't on it. This whole game I've been getting better at my towndetector, but my scumdetector has just recently improved (which isn't bragging... I realize it's going to happen with less players).

[KalelChase]

At least 1 person offering themselves up for stoning is bluffing.

And offering in a contrived way like Kalel ("fine, but it will be a waste") means what?

Meaning it would be a waste for me. I clearly already know my identity, and thus I assert it would be a waste for the team. Ultimately, I don't think I'm a big piece in this puzzle, but if

It seems the only down side to having your ID cleared is that scum will know you're not SK, and you're likely the next to go... and thanks to good advice from others I no longer care about staying in, just the team winning (there's actually something to be said about learning more by seeing the endgame in the god thread (if I've got that terminology right)).