MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Kitsune]

Alright, let's look at this another way Bunny.

Assume I'm not looking at you, but I'm suspecting... let's say another player, called Weasel.

Let's say my existing arguments have been called into question as weak and inexpert and I'm one day down on the other two newbies in being able to improve my investigation skills as well.

How would you approach an ISO, what sorts of things would you be looking for (other than the Steve Rogers claim I personally still find very scumslip). Give me a matrix or an approach to use and I'll scrounge the time to do an ISO myself if that makes you happy.

Also, welcome back - your Nexus game is live.

[BunnyGo]

Alright, let's look at this another way Bunny.

Assume I'm not looking at you, but I'm suspecting... let's say another player, called Weasel.

Let's say my existing arguments have been called into question as weak and inexpert and I'm one day down on the other two newbies in being able to improve my investigation skills as well.

How would you approach an ISO, what sorts of things would you be looking for (other than the Steve Rogers claim I personally still find very scumslip). Give me a matrix or an approach to use and I'll scrounge the time to do an ISO myself if that makes you happy.

Also, welcome back - your Nexus game is live.

Thanks for the pause.

As for the dive, I don’t know. I’ve done the following:

1) tried to see if a person is demonstrating puzzle solving.
2) tried to see if a person has illogical reads on others (scum intel?)
3) tried to see if their votes and movement made sense.

I then flag every post that makes a case, and try to put it together in a story. The story is “who is this person” and “what are they trying to do this game?”

It’s hard because we have no confirmed scum to go back and reread their interactions. We have lots of people running around with no direction(it’s hard until day 3 or 4).

[BunnyGo]

One note for vision(assuming that wasn’t EMC) I don’t know why Loki hasn’t sent someone away yet. But you may wish to scan someone before they do:

1) if you are sent away, no scan
2) if you aren’t sent away, the possibilities of who you are barrows.

[BunnyGo]

One note for vision(assuming that wasn’t EMC) I don’t know why Loki hasn’t sent someone away yet. But you may wish to scan someone before they do:

1) if you are sent away, no scan
2) if you aren’t sent away, the possibilities of who you are barrows.

Barrows? Really autocorrect? I obviously meant narrows

[Nephthys]

I reread Sulit, Kitsune, Maniac, Neph, and Damo per quinque.

Kitsune's Day 1 looks to me like could be newbie scum. I don't know why it stood out, but there's this particular moment on P2 where Kitsune replies to Brain who is replying to a Maniac post from early P1, but Kitsune is replying to Maniac's point about game activity.

Around P30, Neph suggests people make reads lists but aren't allowed to have nulls. Ignores Dargo's question of whether the players he left out of his townlean/scumlean list were nulls... Points out later that it's good to force scum to fake reads on people rather than hedging, but never seems to follow it up. However, I think it could actually be anti-town as it creates a lot of noise and paints a lot of people into ugly positions for others to attack...

Related but different: P87 Neph suggests to BunnyGo rereading the last hundred posts of D1 and categorizing each one. Then bails 7 minutes later, allowing BunnyGo to run on with it. Might be worth looking into what BunnyGo was on about before Neph derailed him.

Neph makes an early implicit read of Xorxes, about players not willing to make cases against "good" people. Around P36, Maniac makes an explicit case. I missed a run of games where Xorxes rolled scum, and the one recent one I've played where he rolled scum, he was very different. They'd both know that lynching Xorxes D1 would be 1) hard, 2) a nice break from having to have the inevitable debate about killing Xorxes N1 and whether he'd be saved...

There's some other opportunistic stuff from Neph. P61, implying Kalel was coached without saying it, for example.

I got through EOD2, and skimmed through the rest of it. Not that Sulit provided much additional info. Anyway, Neph and Maniac look worst, and I didn't see much of concern in Damo.

Which means Damo is scum and Neph and Maniac aren't. But I'm happy to stick on Sulit because either that will pan out now, or it will save us having to regret it later (I have not checked how many more mislynches we have).

Additionally, something I noticed about Kitsune's more recent play, though: he's having just. so. much. fun! Isn't that nice for him, almost like he's winning or something.

Some decent points in here but also some very bad misreads.

To address the ones re me.

1. I didn't ignore dargo's question. It was pointed out to him that they were covered in my previous post. Which he acknowledged. As to why I never followed it up, I've accepted that not many people read my posts. It annoys me but it is what it is, take for example rdr and my recent interaction. Me redirecting him to Vapor's read of food which I explicitly already stated shows he didn't properly read my case. Many people also spoke out against it hence it wasn't worth pursuing.

2. Yes I did bail. If you look at the page 52 (where I suggested we start) you will notice that almost all of the early posts are discussing the shot of worcej. Based on that I realized I wasn't going to be analysing proper discussion but rather fallout of a misplay. Therefore not worth it.

3. Yea, I really hate it. I've bought it up definitely last game and I think the one before.

[BunnyGo]

How’s that sound to you kit? Missing something? I’m flailing too if you have suggestions.

[Foxcastle]

You're sweet, but no.

[snip]

webDip is in, after all.

Yeah, this makes you look worse. Scummy scummy scummy.

[BunnyGo]

I reread Sulit, Kitsune, Maniac, Neph, and Damo per quinque.

Kitsune's Day 1 looks to me like could be newbie scum. I don't know why it stood out, but there's this particular moment on P2 where Kitsune replies to Brain who is replying to a Maniac post from early P1, but Kitsune is replying to Maniac's point about game activity.

Around P30, Neph suggests people make reads lists but aren't allowed to have nulls. Ignores Dargo's question of whether the players he left out of his townlean/scumlean list were nulls... Points out later that it's good to force scum to fake reads on people rather than hedging, but never seems to follow it up. However, I think it could actually be anti-town as it creates a lot of noise and paints a lot of people into ugly positions for others to attack...

Related but different: P87 Neph suggests to BunnyGo rereading the last hundred posts of D1 and categorizing each one. Then bails 7 minutes later, allowing BunnyGo to run on with it. Might be worth looking into what BunnyGo was on about before Neph derailed him.

Neph makes an early implicit read of Xorxes, about players not willing to make cases against "good" people. Around P36, Maniac makes an explicit case. I missed a run of games where Xorxes rolled scum, and the one recent one I've played where he rolled scum, he was very different. They'd both know that lynching Xorxes D1 would be 1) hard, 2) a nice break from having to have the inevitable debate about killing Xorxes N1 and whether he'd be saved...

There's some other opportunistic stuff from Neph. P61, implying Kalel was coached without saying it, for example.

I got through EOD2, and skimmed through the rest of it. Not that Sulit provided much additional info. Anyway, Neph and Maniac look worst, and I didn't see much of concern in Damo.

Which means Damo is scum and Neph and Maniac aren't. But I'm happy to stick on Sulit because either that will pan out now, or it will save us having to regret it later (I have not checked how many more mislynches we have).

Additionally, something I noticed about Kitsune's more recent play, though: he's having just. so. much. fun! Isn't that nice for him, almost like he's winning or something.

Some decent points in here but also some very bad misreads.

To address the ones re me.

1. I didn't ignore dargo's question. It was pointed out to him that they were covered in my previous post. Which he acknowledged. As to why I never followed it up, I've accepted that not many people read my posts. It annoys me but it is what it is, take for example rdr and my recent interaction. Me redirecting him to Vapor's read of food which I explicitly already stated shows he didn't properly read my case. Many people also spoke out against it hence it wasn't worth pursuing.

2. Yes I did bail. If you look at the page 52 (where I suggested we start) you will notice that almost all of the early posts are discussing the shot of worcej. Based on that I realized I wasn't going to be analysing proper discussion but rather fallout of a misplay. Therefore not worth it.

3. Yea, I really hate it. I've bought it up definitely last game and I think the one before.

Sooooo....Care to provide an example for me of your own dives? An ISO some analysis of EOD2? Something? Anything interesting?

[Kitsune]

How’s that sound to you kit? Missing something? I’m flailing too if you have suggestions.

Not really - and I'm resisting OMGUSing at Foxcastle now I know what that is, but I'm not going to waste my time engaging with him either and will treat his distractions as what they are.

One thought that struck me is looking at who the night killed people had on their suspect lists in case there were any repeat targets there who might have been picking targets in self defense?

Beyond that I'm back where I was before, picking people I have a gut suspicion of and looking for evidence to support that.

Think my thought is worth pursuing, or... not really?

I'm at a bit of a loose end to know how to contribute here beyond trying to work out where to send my vote.

[BunnyGo]

How’s that sound to you kit? Missing something? I’m flailing too if you have suggestions.

Not really - and I'm resisting OMGUSing at Foxcastle now I know what that is, but I'm not going to waste my time engaging with him either and will treat his distractions as what they are.

One thought that struck me is looking at who the night killed people had on their suspect lists in case there were any repeat targets there who might have been picking targets in self defense?

Beyond that I'm back where I was before, picking people I have a gut suspicion of and looking for evidence to support that.

Think my thought is worth pursuing, or... not really?

I'm at a bit of a loose end to know how to contribute here beyond trying to work out where to send my vote.

I'm doing a Neph ISO right as I type this. Why don't you do the same, and we'll see what conclusions we draw.

Like Neph suggested before (BUT BAILED ON ME ##VOTE NEPH since I'm still bitter) we learn about each other by doing this too.

[BunnyGo]

Ok...ok...back to my holding ##VOTE sulit

[Foxcastle]

##Vote Kitsune

[KalelChase]

Thanks Kalel for doing some analysis. I’ve been pretty sick today (warning...do not go into the woods and hole still only mostly healed from a sinus infection , it will come back to kick your ass).

I’ll try to go back @somebody who suggested it (dargo, or Neph?) and redo my read.

Yeah, my method is surely in 0.1 code, and I still have you as Town in my gut (but Kit was swaying me a bit).

Even without the scoring element I thought it might help everyone to see a synopsis of the significant posts/thread topics... even if they were filtered through my lens.

Perhaps someone could make me a list of 'types' of posts and whether they're considered helpful (due to including analysis), or intrusive (trying to call out an PR).

Again, since criteria is posted any system like this would be easily hacked, but it's certainly help me capture a better mental process for actually forming my own opinions.

[BunnyGo]

You a programmer Kalel?

[KalelChase]

Can I ask any more experienced player to do a quick and specific dive?

I’m concerned about Neph pocketing and coaching me.

Can you check our interactions and assume I’m town see if what he’s doing is kosher or scummy?

If this is sincere it's good teamwork, if this is manipulation then asking someone to do a bunch of analysis while "assuming you are Town" is very close to a brainwashing technique. Bravo.

[BunnyGo]

Can I ask any more experienced player to do a quick and specific dive?

I’m concerned about Neph pocketing and coaching me.

Can you check our interactions and assume I’m town see if what he’s doing is kosher or scummy?

If this is sincere it's good teamwork, if this is manipulation then asking someone to do a bunch of analysis while "assuming you are Town" is very close to a brainwashing technique. Bravo.

Thanks! As someone said above, I'm either obviously town or the best new scum player they've ever seen!

[KalelChase]

You a programmer Kalel?

More of a process optimizer/AI automater, but some of the same principles.

[BunnyGo]

You a programmer Kalel?

More of a process optimizer/AI automater, but some of the same principles.

AI automater? You train neural nets?

[KalelChase]

Lots of votes against Vapor, but no posts from Vapor.
Correlation, yes. Causation?

Is Vapor not going to defend?

[Nephthys]

Sooooo....Care to provide an example for me of your own dives? An ISO some analysis of EOD2? Something? Anything interesting?

You want me, to show examples of my analysis? Are you reading the thread?

My case on Vapor

Kalel Pt 1

Kalel pt 2

The Maniac Case

The logical consistency of D1 votes

A few examples.

Please read before you start to point fingers.