MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[KalelChase]

@Kalel Gamorah doesn't know their identity. Only Thanos knows who Gamorah is.

Thanks.

[damo666]

This is incorrect, we need multiple wagons. One wagon doesn’t provide us with any additional information to analyze later. We just need to make sure the actual lunch wagon is ahead enough.

Thanos has no more info than town so why does it matter?

Aren’t you really saying that there’s no harm in letting Thanos determine the lynch?

I countered this. Forgot about Gomorah.

[damo666]

@Kalel Gamorah doesn't know their identity. Only Thanos knows who Gamorah is.

Ah. Too bad Tony didn’t kill her and put her out of her misery.

maybe emc was Gamorah? Who knows? Thanos.

[Temasek22]

RIP BB

Also, since Jamiet is now confirmed vig, ##unvote

I will try to get post counts up, I overestimated the number of time I had

[Temasek22]

@Kalel Gamorah doesn't know their identity. Only Thanos knows who Gamorah is.

Ah. Too bad Tony didn’t kill her and put her out of her misery.

maybe emc was Gamorah? Who knows? Thanos.

AND the scum janitor

[Foxcastle]

Thanos has no more info than town so why does it matter?

Aren’t you really saying that there’s no harm in letting Thanos determine the lynch?

I countered this. Forgot about Gomorah.

Even discounting Thanos having additional information, Thanos does not share town's win condition. You should definitely not want Thanos deciding the game.

[damo666]

Ah. Too bad Tony didn’t kill her and put her out of her misery.

maybe emc was Gamorah? Who knows? Thanos.

AND the scum janitor

well if emc were Gamorah the whole scum team know.

[KalelChase]

Has Chaqa played FM before

I believe so. I believe the only noobs are me, Kalel and Kitsune.

So I was going to try and calculate the odds that 3 new players were all assigned Townie, but it's a lot of math I don't have the time for. I think all three of us are town... Adding in Xorxes, Food and most Dead to my townie list.

TOWN (9)
Bunny
Kalel
Kitsune
Xorxes
Food
Brain
Bozo
Worcej
Jamiet99uk

TOWNLEAN
EMC
rdrivera2005

NULL
Foxcastle
Maniac
Vaporwave

SCUMlean
Chaqa - lazy, just voting on first impression of me, not rethinking position
dargorygel -
EspressoPatronum - as prior posted
sulit - Silent, lots of small posts to seem active
yuuki - absent
Nephthys
Temasek22
damo666 - Tried to out Jamie as Tony early

SCUM (No idea, but this is the first time I'm actually putting this list together and it's helped more than I thought to capture my rational).

[KalelChase]

scum survey:
bozo: Vapor, emc, rdrivera, Nephthys
BunnyGo: emc, Kalel, bozo, brainbomb
Nephthys: Espresso, Jamie, foodcoats, bozo
Vapor: darg, Espresso, Temasek, ?
Espresso: Foxcastle, emc, Kalel, xorxes
damo: Chaqa, darg, emc, Kalel
foodcoats: brainbomb, emc, Foxcastle, Maniac
darg: Vapor, BunnyG, Kitsune, emc
Maniac: xorxes, Espresso, Kalel, ?
Kitsune: bozo, Temasek, ?, ?
rdrivera: Espresso, bozo, Kalel, Foxcastle
Temasek: Kalel, Espresso, xorxes, bozo
worcej: rdrivera, Kalel, darg, emc
brainbomb: rdrivera, Chaqa, ND, ?
Chaqa: Vapor, ?, ?, ?
emc:
Foxcastle: Espresso, ?, ?, ?
Jamie: bozo, worcej, ND, ?
Kalel: Espresso, ?, ?, ?
ND: Chaqa, ?, ?, ?
xorxes: Espresso, ?, ?, ?
yuuki: foodcoats, Chaqa, ND, Kalel

**Snip

TO further Bozo's legacy....
Based on the VT/Dead so far and assuming Kits is Townie here are the percentages of accuracy for those where there is significantly statistical data. This is based upon MY Townie and townlean list and obviously assumes me.
Keep in mind just because your are wrong doesn't mean you're scum... but those that IDed a lot of townies and are not newbies might lean.

BunnyGo: emc, Kalel, bozo, brainbomb (assuming EMC is Townie batting 0%)
Nephthys: Espresso, Jamie, foodcoats, bozo (assuming Foodcoats is Townie 25%)
Espresso: Foxcastle, emc, Kalel, xorxes (assuming emc 25%)
damo: Chaqa, darg, emc, Kalel (assuming emc 50%)
foodcoats: brainbomb, emc, Foxcastle, Maniac (assuming emc 50%)
darg: Vapor, BunnyG, Kitsune, emc (assuming Bunny, Kit, emc 25%)
Maniac: xorxes, Espresso, Kalel, ? (50%)
Kitsune: bozo, Temasek, ?, ? (25%)
rdrivera: Espresso, bozo, Kalel, Foxcastle (50%)
Temasek: Kalel, Espresso, xorxes, bozo (25%)
worcej: rdrivera, Kalel, darg, emc (assuming emc 50%)
Jamie: bozo, worcej, ND, ? (50%)
yuuki: foodcoats, Chaqa, ND, Kalel (0%)

Might make this my N2 project to continue this if Damo doesn't think it's still too early.

[damo666]

OK got it

Scumteam is either:

A) EP Maniac sulit and yuuki or

B) dargo Maniac sulit Neph or

c) 3 from B plus either Tem or yuuki

Maniac and sulit 10 possible teams
yuuki dargo Neph 9
Tem 8
EP 1

##vote Maniac

[foodcoats]

When Kalel followed me onto yuuki for lurking just now, I got a bit of a skeevefeel, and wanted to make sure me voting yuuki is more than just a lurk vote.

However, yuuki's reads have been incredibly lacklustre and have hardly developed at all.

I'm going to go with foodcoats, Chaqa, ND, and kalel as scum team. I really have no real read on kalel as scum yet though so that is to be taken with a massive grain of salt.

From everything I see, I think we should try to consolidate on Chaqa and ND wagon as the likelihood of one of them being scum is really high

Ok after a very painful read of 50+ pages of gibberish, my conclusion is that vaporwave is scum. He has been buddyin up to a bunch of people, lessening the importance of scum hunting, and generally quite scummy looking. In the previous game he jumped out to me as the towniest player from early on, while here I'm struggling to find any reason to find him townie.

I still need to get through a few more pages and will get to it tonight after I get home. Luckily I have a lot more time on the weekend than during the week, so I'll be able to be way more active than now. I apologise for those who expected me to be more active up until now, but it was a truly hectic workweek.

yuuki, how else do your town and scum reads change if you think Vapor is part of the scumteam?

I didn't quote this, but you listed Jamie as a likely vig, and brainbomb and EP as town. Who are your other townleans at this stage? How does that change now that Jamie is confirmed vig and brainbomb confirmed town?

[Temasek22]

##vote yuuki just to tie it all up as I'm still not impressed with his game so far...

[BunnyGo]

OK got it

Scumteam is either:

A) EP Maniac sulit and yuuki or

B) dargo Maniac sulit Neph or

c) 3 from B plus either Tem or yuuki

Maniac and sulit 10 possible teams
yuuki dargo Neph 9
Tem 8
EP 1

##vote Maniac

I like that you’re putting things together with options. Can you elaborate for those of us without your massive prefrontal cortex?

[Foxcastle]

Did I miss something specific where BunnyGo and Kalel glommed on to Damo like lost lambs? https://i.imgur.com/h0nS9b3.gif

[BunnyGo]

Did I miss something specific where BunnyGo and Kalel glommed on to Damo like lost lambs? https://i.imgur.com/h0nS9b3.gif

Are you offering theories that I need to ask you to elaborate on?

Would you care to offer theories?

[Foxcastle]

Dargo, you seem quiet and unobtrusive. Did you roll scum twice in a row?

[damo666]

@Kalel

a priori chances of all 3 newbies being town is 34/77 (just over 44%).

[BunnyGo]

@Kalel

a priori chances of all 3 newbies being town is 34/77 (just over 44%).

But as every probability professor ever said, in cases like this, it happened or it didn’t. The odds don’t really matter.

[Foxcastle]

Did I miss something specific where BunnyGo and Kalel glommed on to Damo like lost lambs? https://i.imgur.com/h0nS9b3.gif

Are you offering theories that I need to ask you to elaborate on?

Would you care to offer theories?

No. It's a very direct question.

Although, I do often fail to read sarcasm, and this was prompted by you calling Damo's prefrontal cortex massive. So maybe I misread you there. But it doesn't look like it, because you start out that post by praising his actions. So I'm just curious why you and Kalel (who is waiting on Damo's approval for his N2 project) have decided to go all ant-man on Damo.

[BunnyGo]

This Bunny isn't fluffy lol.

https://giphy.com/gifs/rabbit-monty-pyt ... Yi4hkiUuPe