MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[xorxes]

that power stone can be used as often as possible, doesn't seem to have a cool off time

so this serial killer can't be NK and it's hard to get him killed because he can make his counterwagon get lynched instead

what an invincible guy

Not really, we just need to keep the leading wagon with two vote distance (for now) as he can't have more then one Stone at this point.

He will be getting a 2nd stone soon though, and we will lose gamora.

That depends a lot on how lynchable Gamora is. They have to be very lucky for Gamora to be one of our top scum candidates.

[KalelChase]

@Kalel

Agreed, if that was sincerely meant then it could still be very useful information.

Snipping the top 5 on the list to look at, we have:

Espresso 8
Kalel 8
emc 7
bozo 6
Chaqa 4

Let's... politely ignore bozo's name out of respect and look at the rest using Food's heuristic.

Espresso - I don't necessarily trust his reads (because I can't, and because some of them are based on meta I'm not privy to) but he's actually growing on me with a positive and investigative style. I'm pushing Townlean here. He was in on the mistaken lynch of Bozo, as was I.

Kalel - Going back through his post list for Day 1, I'm starting to realise how little there was actually there. I still can't find anything bad there, but with the second lowest posting stats among players (yes, even yuuki came back with a vengeance) and precious little meat or investigation in his posts when they did come I'm pushing scumlean here. Newbie solidarity or no. He was in on the mistaken lynch of Bozo, as was I.

Emc - A long absence near the start which I'm fully aware from out-of-game reasons was genuine (*glare*) doesn't look great, but he came back with a vengeance to be a roughly middle poster. One good post around page 44, and then some solid reasoning vs Maniac and on the last minute voting shift. I'm pushing null here for our tiny overlord. Although if he starts snipping my hair I'm going to step on him. He voted Maniac, along with Xorxes.

Chaqa - Down in the low-posters again (18 according to the bot, which yes I'm learning to use). Low participation too, it feels like he's going along with the flow rather than offering up any new information or arguments. He claims that's his meta and most of you seem to accept that, but based on what I can see myself I'm thinking scumlean here until we see more of the active Detective Chaqa on the case. He voted ND, along with six others. Thanos did not prefer this lynch.

Thoughts: Why is humour and helpfulness a sign of being scummy? That seems like it would be helpful for a town pulling together to figure who is right and who is dead?

Kit - I came in trying to socialize and was rewarded by becoming one of the top suspects. Since I don't have much strategic game here yet I simply went into observation mode.

For the life of me I can't figure out how any of you are determining who to vote for so, quite frankly, I joined you who had said some nice things about me and BunnyGo who I felt bad about voting for early (for the NoLynch, which I was also wrong on).

I'm trying to crunch the data here, and I've figured out how to access each players post thread, so I hope to be much more helpful to the Avengers moving forward... but I know I'm not showing it yet. I just hope I'm not Hawkeye (unless it's Pierce).

[Kitsune]

@Kalel

I don't agree that joking and being social makes you scummy, and this didn't enter into my evaluation as far as I'm aware.

I agree we have very very very little to go on here, and I like you and your writing style - but we're searching for scum and serial killers rather than Miss Congeniality

I don't have a better tool to use at the moment than the two heuristics, and when I used my gut-check last night Nephthys rightly called me on one oops I made so I'm trying to stick to what I can see and what I can determine from that now. I don't necessarily agree with Bozo's survey (I in fact thought it was a distraction play) but since it turns out he was town I'm now trying to use it, just as you are.

Now help me find some scum? :)

I'm sure there must be better candidates than you out there.

[KalelChase]

Okay... just a thinking through newbie rant....

Clearly Thanos is the biggest threat and once he sacrifices Gamora it'll be incredibly hard for either side to stop him with no cool-down on his power.

It seems to me that the more stones Thanos has then the more everyone else will have to be on the same page voting in order to minimize that strategic advantage.

Is there any strategy the two teams can use to ID Thanos first?

I'm assuming the Scum can't vote NoLynch at night even if they wanted to? I know it probably wouldn't be in their best interest, but if we could have a side-vote for who the Vision should scan that might reveal some information... I mean if we knew who the vision was.

Unless the players I trust get me on board I'm planning on NoLynch once Gamora is 'revealed' to Thanos. This might buy the Vision some time to get us some more data (and more apologies to GoBunny).

Oy, what a game.

[KalelChase]

@Kalel

I don't agree that joking and being social makes you scummy, and this didn't enter into my evaluation as far as I'm aware.

I agree we have very very very little to go on here, and I like you and your writing style - but we're searching for scum and serial killers rather than Miss Congeniality

I don't have a better tool to use at the moment than the two heuristics, and when I used my gut-check last night Nephthys rightly called me on one oops I made so I'm trying to stick to what I can see and what I can determine from that now. I don't necessarily agree with Bozo's survey (I in fact thought it was a distraction play) but since it turns out he was town I'm now trying to use it, just as you are.

Now help me find some scum? :)

I'm sure there must be better candidates than you out there.

I'm learning more with every post, sensei. I'm wondering if the VT are more active on the thread at night because the Scum are busy whispering in the shadows? Or do the VT traditionally get quiet too? I'd hate to think 1/3 of the game would be boring just because I'm one of the good guys.

I'll be watching the post count over the next 24 hours.

[Kitsune]

Certainly there's a lot less people around than there were a couple of hours ago.

Has everyone gone to bed (whatever time it is over in Stateside)?

Or is there another unwritten rule I'm missing about talking too much in night phase being a good way to attract a nk?

[brainbomb]

talk at your own risk.
best thing to do is make cases and do wagon analysis
scum will want people to do things like discuss who best nk is, or town to speculate on unhelpful things like who thanos is.

technically scum cant kill thanos and they dont want to waste a kill accidentally mirking him
so hitting thanos only helps scum if they wanna trade an item thief for him or lose their janitor

[brainbomb]

never assume scum is competant.
never give them information at all, just make cases, and study wagons.
thats literally all we need to do at night
cross your fingers
say your prayers
and touchdown jesus

[brainbomb]

And finally

From the Maf QT
ND: By the grace of Donald, I now pronounce you... raptor Jesus

Temasek: I was hoping this ceremony would be like... better?

Rivera: *sips caprini's*

Neph: I dont want to marry a dinosaur.. can we do something else?

Rivera: *puts on capri pants and rides a horse down the beach screaming the british are coming*

ND: The BRITISH? Those socialist scum? The UK is one step away from Pol Pot.

Temasek: I think I wanna concede. this maf team sucks.

Neph: Yes. but at least were not those evil communists

[rdrivera2005]

that power stone can be used as often as possible, doesn't seem to have a cool off time

so this serial killer can't be NK and it's hard to get him killed because he can make his counterwagon get lynched instead

what an invincible guy

Not really, we just need to keep the leading wagon with two vote distance (for now) as he can't have more then one Stone at this point.

He will be getting a 2nd stone soon though, and we will lose gamora.

I don't understand this statement. He needs to lynch Gamorra to get the soul stone, it's not a sure thing and he can't have another stone on D2 for sure (unless someone give a stone to him which is a really stupid thing to do).

[xorxes]

@Neph: How does bozo's flip impact your read of Espresso, given that you thought they were connected?

[rdrivera2005]

And finally

From the Maf QT
ND: By the grace of Donald, I now pronounce you... raptor Jesus

Temasek: I was hoping this ceremony would be like... better?

Rivera: *sips caprini's*

Neph: I dont want to marry a dinosaur.. can we do something else?

Rivera: *puts on capri pants and rides a horse down the beach screaming the british are coming*

ND: The BRITISH? Those socialist scum? The UK is one step away from Pol Pot.

Temasek: I think I wanna concede. this maf team sucks.

Neph: Yes. but at least were not those evil communists

What's a caprini?

[xorxes]

And finally

From the Maf QT
ND: By the grace of Donald, I now pronounce you... raptor Jesus

Temasek: I was hoping this ceremony would be like... better?

Rivera: *sips caprini's*

Neph: I dont want to marry a dinosaur.. can we do something else?

Rivera: *puts on capri pants and rides a horse down the beach screaming the british are coming*

ND: The BRITISH? Those socialist scum? The UK is one step away from Pol Pot.

Temasek: I think I wanna concede. this maf team sucks.

Neph: Yes. but at least were not those evil communists

What's a caprini?

Caipirinha!

[RagingIke297]

##GM note

ND has been replaced be Sulit!!

[Nephthys]

@Neph: How does bozo's flip impact your read of Espresso, given that you thought they were connected?

On one hand he drops for the obvious.

On the other I'm interested in that most people scumread him according to bozo's survey. I would be keen to hear/read explanations for the people that jumped ship. The way the wagon fell makes me wonder whether there was some bussing going on?

On the whole he probably sits at a weak scumlean

[Chaqa]

Oh right I forgot about end of day. I was streaming on Twitch.

Well, I'm not sure ND's replacement is alignment-indicative, but it's interesting.

RIP Bozo.

[KalelChase]

##Vote bozo

This was useful yes and I intended to bring it up when relevant. This was also used to success last game although both times the game has progressed significantly than it currently has. There is little point in doing it now and it is the definition of content for the sake of content

I can always join a bozo lynch.

##vote Bozo

Interesting that 50% of my top 4 scum reads chose to vote for me instead of participating in my survey. Only scum would want to avoid coming up with 4 scum reads. Your confidence level does not have to be high. List everyone from most likely to least likely scum, and take the first 4.

Bozo's list was bozo: Vapor, emc, rdrivera, Nephthys

These are the people who had Bozo in their list (as opposed to voted for Bozo)... so either early error players, or part of the conspiracy theory?
BunnyGo: emc, Kalel, bozo, brainbomb
I'm biased because of our earlier altercation, but I'm leaning town
Nephthys: Espresso, Jamie, foodcoats, bozo
Neutral
Kitsune: bozo, Temasek, ?, ?
I'm biased because I've found them helpful
rdrivera: Espresso, bozo, Kalel, Foxcastle
I'm leaning scum
Temasek: Kalel, Espresso, xorxes, bozo
I'm biased because they're gunning for me which means scum or bad player

If I'm killed tonight you'll know it was rdrivera, Nephthys and Temasek.... if I make it through then I'll re-evaluate.

[brainbomb]

##GM note

ND has been replaced be Sulit!!

SULIT IS HERE????
OWO

[KalelChase]

Sorry all... working on my formatting.

[brainbomb]

https://youtu.be/nPz-OXEVafM